A brief look at the ridings

UPDATE: The election is now over. Browse through this page to see how my initial August 11 prediction evolved and follow links to individual updates. My final call was L30-PC24-NDP1 while the result was L29-PC26. Relatively close. For my self-evaluation click here.

PREDICTION UPDATES: August 14; August 15; August 17; August 29; September 5; September 6; September 7; September 8; September 9; September 10; September 13; September 14; September 15; September 17

Well now that we have a date the true excitement begins. My regular daily media round up was pre-empted by the setting of a date and rather than get to that, I am going to do my preliminary "ridings to watch" that I promised a few days ago.

Please remember that we are facing new ridings for the first time since 1995 so that in and off itself makes things interesting. I'll begin with the easy ones which are ridings which will not change hands and I won't bother with any commentary.

Safe ridings

• Campbellton-Restigouche Centre (Liberal); moved to leans Liberal on September 8, to too close to call on September 10 and to leans PC on September 15 and finally to Liberal in the final prediction on September 17


• Dalhousie-Restigouche East (Liberal)


• Nigadoo-Chaleur (Liberal)


• Bathurst (Liberal); moved to leans Liberal on September 9 but back to safe Liberal on September 15 listed as Liberal but a "riding to watch" in the final prediction on September 17


• Caraquet (Liberal); moved to leans Liberal on September 14 but back to safe Liberal on September 15


• Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Liberal)


• Rogersville-Koouchibouguac (Progressive Conservative); moved to leans PC on September 13 and marked as a "riding to watch" in the final prediction on September 17


• Kent (Liberal)


• Shediac-Cap-Pelé (Liberal)


• Moncton West (Progressive Conservative); moved to too close to call on September 5 and then to leans PC on September 6 and listed as a "riding to watch" in the final prediction on September 17


• Moncton North (Liberal)


• Moncton-Crescent (Progressive Conservative)


• Petitcodiac (Progressive Conservative)


• Riverview (Progressive Conservative)


• Albert (Progressive Conservative)


• Kings East (Liberal); moved to leans Liberal on August 29 and then to too close to call on September 8 and to leans PC on September 9 and marked as a PC pickup in the final prediction on September 17


• Hampton-Kings (Progressive Conservative); moved to leans PC on August 29 but back to safe PC on September 10


• Saint John-Fundy (Liberal)


• Saint John Harbour (Liberal)


• Saint John Lancaster (Liberal)


• Charlotte-The Isles (Liberal)


• Oromocto (Progressive Conservative)


• Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak (Liberal)


• New Maryland-Sunbury West (Progressive Conservative)


• Carleton (Progressive Conservative)


• Victoria-Tobique (Liberal)


• Grand Falls-Drummond-Saint-André (Liberal)


• Edmundston-Saint-Basile (Progressive Conservative)


• Madawaska-les-Lacs (Progressive Conservative)

In the bag: Liberals 17, Progressive Conservatives 12

I know I am going to be accused of being partisan here, but it is no secret that the Tories have a weak caucus (due to having had trouble recruiting candidates when they were 20 points back in 1999 and then winning big and keeping all of those (only Bruce Fitch is not from the class of 1999 or earlier) while the Liberals have remarkably strong caucus members for an opposition party. This gives the Liberals a strong advantage (one which I think is actually stronger but I am trying to temper any koolaid I may have drank).

I am pretty confident that the above 29 seats will not change hands but, if the tide turns hard in either direction and there is a big sweep coming things could be revised.

Preliminary ridings to watch

Nepisiguit - currently Independent, formerly Liberal

Frank Branch could run again, either as an independent or as a Liberal, largely to try and vindicate his name. His candidacy as an independent would make this race very interesting. It remains unclear what effect the controversy surrounding him has had on his local popularity, I'll need to do some digging there. Also, Gilles Halley, the NDPer who ran here in 1999 and got 28% is still interested in the party and said in 2005 that he would have run for leader but the timing was difficult for him. If he were to run, particularly if Branch was running as an independent, he would have a real shot here. Changed to leaning Liberal on August 15 and to safe Liberal on September 7

Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently PC

Paul Robichaud may be the first person to have ever been re-elected in this riding. I know it went Liberal in 78, PC in 82, Liberal in 87, PC in 91, Liberal in 95 and PC in 99. Not sure what happened in 74 though it probably was Liberal so maybe Robichaud is the second person. In any event, the electorate is clearly volatile and, notwithstanding Robichaud's huge margin in 2003, it is worth looking at at least preliminarily. Changed to leans PC on August 29 and to safe PC on September 7

Centre-Péninsulke-Saint-Sauveur - currently Liberal

This is a rural riding with probably the worst economic problems on the Peninsula, Liberal Denis Landry (who won in 95 but lost in 99) may face problems simply due to general frustration among the electorate and he won very narrowly in 2003. Moved to leans PC on September 8 and to leans Liberal on September 15, finally it is listed as PC but as one of ten "ridings to watch" in the final prediction on September 17.

Tracadie-Sheila - currently PC *incumbent retiring

This riding, once the fiefdom of Doug Young, has had a bitterly divided Liberal Association ever since. With the seat open, depending on the Liberals unity and the quality of candidate the PCs pick to replace the popular retiring Elvy Robichaud it could go either way. changed to leans PC on August 29 and to safe PC on September 10 but back to leans PC on September 15 but marked as a PC hold in the final prediction on September 17.

Miramichi-Bay du Vin - currently PC

Before 2004, Tanker was undefeatable. After the hospital controversy the Tories were destroyed here but Tanker's personal rep managed to survive though with some damage. After February 18, 2006 people were uncertain but when Tanker rejoined the Tories he was toast. That faced with the fact that the Liberals are running Bill Fraser who chaired the hospital protest committee, this is the first seat I am going to call to change hands. Liberal gain. Moved to safe Liberal on September 10.

Miramichi-Centre - currently Liberal

This has been the most reliably Tory seat on the Miramichi going PC in 1982 and 1999 and almost in 1991 (the Liberals won in a tight three-way race involving the leader of CoR) so with a good candidate the Tories could win here, particularly if they are going to hold government. Moved to leans PC on September 9 and to leans Liberal on September 15 but marked as a Liberal hold in the final prediction on September 17.

Southwest Miramichi - currently Liberal

This is, on paper, a perfect conservative seat (notice the small c). It is rural and religious. Hunting and fishing and the tourism surrounding them are key industries. That said, Liberal Rick Brewer is a conservative, at least socially, and I would have expected an easy win for him. Brent Taylor, former MLA here from 1991 to 1995 and briefly leader of the CoR Party however is a formidable challenger. Folks in these parts primarily read the Miramichi Leader and Fredericton Daily Gleaner in which Taylor has had a column since 1998. He is still well known, perhaps better known, than he was when he was elected 15 years ago. I think this could go either way but the edge is to Taylor and I'll call this a Tory gain.

Kent South - currently PC

Kent County is supposed to be Liberal country but Kent South did elect a Tory in the big 1982 victory and that Tory's EA is today's MLA. Moreover, it looks like the Liberal candidate will be former Bouctouche Mayor Raymond Duplessis. The problem? Bouctouche was redistributed into Liberal leader Shawn Graham's riding and Duplessis fought it angrily. This should have been a Liberal pick up but, unless there is a big sweep, I am going to call it a Tory hold. Changed to too close to call on August 14 and then to leans Liberal on September 5 and back to too close to call on September 8 and then to leans PC on September 10; kept in the leans PC column as one of ten "ridings to watch" in the final prediction on September 17.

Tantramar - currently PC *incumbent retiring

This riding is interesting in that it seems to be almost American in its favourables to incumbents. It was when the incumbent Tory Lloyd Folkins retired in 1982 that the NDP managed to pick it up. Though the Liberals stole it from an incumbent in their sweep, the widely popular NDPer Bob Hall could not regain it in 1991 and by 1995 the Liberal MLA Marilyn Trenholme Counsel had widened her lead to 46%! In a 1997 by-election however, the Liberal vote slipped from 62% to 33% in what was a three-way race between now retiring Peter Mesheau at 34% to 33 for the Liberals and 30 for the New Democrats. Mesheau managed to dominate here in 1999 and 2003 with 63% and 58% of the vote respectively. History tells us that an open seat here means a tight race. Moved to leans NDP on September 10, then to too close to call on September 13, to leans PC on September 15 and as a PC hold in the final prediction of September 17.

Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe - new district, entirty of territory currently represented by PC

New district which I will need to take a look at which polls from the old district came over of to offer much comment. Changed to leans Liberal on August 29 and to safe Liberal on September 7.

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - new district, vast majority of territory currently represented by PC

Incumbent from Dieppe-Memramcook Cy LeBlanc is running here. He won in the old riding by only about 100 votes last time and both of the candidates running for the Liberal nomination are strong. I need to look at the polls from the old district to see whether this has taken a predominately Liberal or Tory part of the old riding but, barring this being a gerrymander of some kind it is probably safe to say it will be a Liberal gain. Changed to safe Liberal (from leans Liberal) on September 7.

Moncton East - currently PC

Premier Lord's riding should be interesting indeed. He won by about 10% in 2003 which is not too bad but far less than he did in 1999. In 2003 he faced a little known Chris Collins whose only political experience was running as an NDP sacrificial lamb in 1987. Since that time Collins has been elected to city council and has built himself a good name and a lot of credibility. If Collins runs here again in what was once the most reliable Liberal seat in Moncton, Lord will be in for a fight. If Collins runs and the government changes, Lord is done for sure. Right now it is too close to call. Collins is not running and, as such, changed to leans Tory on August 17, to safe PC on September 9 and back to leans PC on September 13. In the final prediction of September 17 it is marked as a PC hold.

Quispamsis - currently PC

Fowlie only won here by 18 votes in 2003, but some of the closest Tory wins in 1999 became safe ones in 2003. Have people further soured on Fowlie due to her controversies or are they sympathetic towards her? I'll need to investigate before making a call here. Moved to leans Liberal on September 9 and to safe Liberal in the final prediction of September 17.

Rothesay - currently PC

Margaret-Ann Blaney surprisingly left the cabinet earlier this year and in 2003 she was cut down to a narrow margin. Paul Barry looks to be the Liberal candidate here which could spell trouble for Blaney. Moved to leans PC on September 10 and marked as a PC hold in the final prediction of September 17.

Saint John East - currently Liberal

The Tories are a non-factor in this riding and have been since 1984 when they lost it to the NDP in a by-election. The NDP, however, remains strong here and if they have a strong candidate as they did in 2003 they will give Roly MacIntyre a run for his money. Smart Tories here would shift their efforts to the NDP which could upset the popular and effective Liberal critict. For now though, the edge goes to the Liberal. Changed to safe Liberal (from leans Liberal) on September 7.

Saint John Portland - currently PC

The lessons of Saint John Harbour show us that Lord's popularity is sinking in Saint John. Moreover, Trevor Holder will have to personally take the blame for the lack of harbour clean up now that he is environment minister. Holder barely held on in 2003 against then politically inexperienced Colleen Knudson and the rematch could be trouble. What kind of Harbour action plan the Tories release during the campaign and how credible it is will determine the result here. Moved to leans Liberal on September 8 and declared one of ten "ridings to watch" in the final prediction of September 17.

Fundy-River Valley - currently PC *incumbent retiring

This riding, essentially unchanged from the old Grand Bay-Westfield, will requite a closer look from me before I can really comment. Changed to leans Liberal on August 14 and to safe Liberal on September 10.

Charlotte-Campobello - currently PC

Tony Huntjens barely won in 2003 and has since been in and out of cabinet, promised cabinet and then, when that didn't work out, the speakership and then, when that didn't work out who knows. I suspect his credibility is pretty badly damaged. The Liberal nomination is between the Mayor of St. Stephen and the former EA to the Liberal MLA and minister. Depending on which wins the nomination, it will either be a close race or an easy Liberal pick up. Changed to leans Liberal on September 6

Grand Lake-Gagetown - new district, territory currently represented by ~ 70% Liberal, 30% PC

The Grand Lake portion of this riding was won 2 to 1 by Liberal McGinley last time so I am tempted to call this a safe Liberal seat. McCready's father hasn't been on the ballot since 1982 and it was a much different riding (I need to look and see exactly where he represented) so I think McGinley could fend him off. On the other hand, Jack Carr is not only Jody's brother, he is his identical twin. If he wins the nomination, he'll do very well in the Gagetown-area polls and that could make this a close race. Changed to leans Liberal on August 29 and to safe Liberal on September 10.

Fredricton-Nashwaaksis - currently Liberal

Though I think Liberal T.J. Burke should be safe here, Fredericton North (just recently renamed) has not re-elected a member or a party since 1982. I'll take a closer look at this later but for now it is in the watchable column. Moved to leans Liberal on September 8 and to safe Liberal on September 10.

Fredericton-Lincoln - new district, territory currently represented by ~ 60% Liberal, 40% PC

New district, if Greg Byrne is the Liberal candidate as suggested by the media then this is an easy win for the Liberals.

Fredericton-Silverwood - currently PC

Brad Green is in deep trouble here. He only managed 38% of the vote in 2003 despite facing a weak Liberal candidate. With the NDP likely to, at best, hold there vote from '03 (22%) and likely to lose some, it should be winnable for Liberal Anne Bertrand. If the NDP manages to keep their vote high or increase it slightly, Green could narrowly win on a vote split but I don't expect that to happen. I will call this a Liberal gain. Dennis Atchison will be the NDP candidate here and could do very well allowing a vote split. Changed to too close to call on August 17 and then to leans PC on September 6 and back to too close to call on September 10. In the final prediction it was declared, reluctantly, leans NDP and listed as one of ten "ridings to watch" on September 17.

York - currently Liberal *incumbent retiring

York like Fredericton North and Shippigan is notorious for changing parties every election. Coupled with the retiring incumbent, the loss of Liberal-leaning Nackawic from the district and no apparent strong Liberal candidate. I'll call this a Tory gain pending the selection of candidates. Moved to too close to call on September 10 but back to leans PC September 15. Marked as one of ten "ridings to watch" on September 17.

York North - currently PC

Kirk MacDonald won re-election by only about 100 votes last time and has picked up some Liberal-leaning areas from Nackawic. The Tories, under his department though, have done some good work getting the Nackawic mill up and running so I suspect that this will be a Tory hold. Changed to safe PC (from leans PC) on September 7. In the final prediction however, it was marked as leans PC as one of 10 "ridings to watch" on September 17.

Woodstock - currently PC

Hospitals, hospitals, hospitals. Unless the Liberals choose a really bad candidate (which they did in 2003) then this is an easy Liberal pickup. Moved to safe Liberal.

Restigouche-La-Vallée - new district, territory currently represented by ~ 50% PC, 50% Liberals

This will be an interesting battle. Burt Paulin has been a very strong MLA for the Liberals and has climbed the ranks to a senior critic (Natural Resources and Parks) and really seems to know his files and his constituents. Unfortunately for Paulin, Percy Mockler runs his part of the district like a personal fiefdom where opposition is crushed. His electorate will not dare to oppose him, at least not publicly, so it is hard for momentum to build there. In the meantime, Paulin has lost some of his more Liberal polls to the neighbouring Campbellton district. St-Quentin, from Paulin's district, is usually reliable Tory country but may back Paulin over the hospital issue but it will probably not be enough. Another unknown factor is Rodolphe Martin. He ran very successfully federally in 04 and 06 (getting near 30% both times), if he were to run provincially in this tight race he could have an outside chance. I'll need to see if his support was concentrated here (as I suspect it was) and whether or not he will run. In the interim though, I think Mockler will win, making this a Tory hold/gain in this merged district. Changed to leans Liberal on August 29 but back to the original leans PC on September 15. Left in the leaning PC column, it was marked as one of ten "ridings to watch" in the final prediction of September 17.

So from the ridings to watch we have the Liberals with 6 more (5 gains and 1 hold) and the Tories with 5 more (3 gains and 2 holds). This in my mind makes sense because the Tory incumbents are weak, they are going to lose some. Period. Any hope of their being re-elected means they are going to need to pick up 2 or 3 minimum to stay even and then pick up more beyond that to get into safe majority territory.

So the preliminary total is:
Liberal 23
Progressive Conservative 17
To early to say 15

Update (August 14) Lib 24, PC 16, Too close 15
Update (August 15) Lib 25, PC 16, Too close 14
Update (August 17) Lib 24, PC 17, Too close 14
Update (August 29) Lib 27, PC 18, Too close 10
Update (September 5) Lib 28, PC 17, Too close 10
Update (September 6) Lib 29, PC 19, Too close 7
Update (September 8) Lib 29, PC 20, Too close 6
Update (September 9) Lib 30, PC 22, Too close 3
Update (September 10) Lib 29, PC 22, NDP 1, Too close 3
Update (September 13) Lib 29, PC 22, Too close 4
Update (September 15) Lib 30, PC 24, Too close 1
Update (September 17 - FINAL) Lib 30, PC 24, NDP 1, Too close 0

This is preliminary and just off of the cuff with little research. Please don't be too hard on me in the comments section!!!!