Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Nepisiguit update

Yesterday it was revealed than long time MLA Frank Branch (who served from 1970-1995 and from 2003 to present) will not seek re-election. Branch, who was sat as an independent since January when an investigation into him for activities outside of the legislature escalated, was a big question mark here.

Had he run as a Liberal, I think he would have won. As an indepedent it would require investigation. But with him out of the race, this is strongly favourable to the Liberals.

I am going to call this as leaning Liberal for now due to the possibility of a strong NDP campaign from Gilles Halley. If Halley doesn't run, then I will move this to safe Liberal.


Alvy Singer said...

Tory vs. Liberal vs. Halley vs. Branch would, as you correctly point out, be a very interesting four-way race.

nbpolitico said...

Indeed. Unfortunately, we'll not get that now that Branch has withdrawn his name from consideration.

Alvy Singer said...

Oops, my bad.

Had interpreted your post to mean that he would not seek the Liberal nomination.

I need a cigarette so bad that I've become a functional illiterate.

nbpolitico said...


Spinks said...

I just don't see the NDP playing a factor. The only thinkgthey might do is steal some Liberal votes away. I'm still convinced Allison Brewer is going to pull a major faux pas before too long and pretty much alienate the entire party except to the die-hard NDP supporters.

nbpolitico said...

spinks - I think you are right but in rural NB, especially Francophone rural NB, the local campaigns matter more. Especially when no one is really excited about any of the leaders.

Anonymous said...

As well, the NDP is far more grassroots oriented than the two major parties, which means who the leader is doesn't matter nearly as much. Many who vote NDP do it simply out of principle, they are the only party that adheres to their principles (the NDP ones I mean)

What is quite interesting is what goes on behind closed doors. NB is truly a closed off political system where people on the outside have no idea what their government is doing.

With two leaders both so unpopular either with voters or in the press, the NDP could have made real grounds with Elizabeth Weir who has been around a long time and has at least the grudging respect of many.

I think that would have been a VERY interesting race, and it's certainly interesting that she chose now to retire. There are no 'new faces' and no charismatic issues to ignite voters, so the NDP could have made some real gains.