Tidbits which have spun me into a prophesy on the NDP

• T.J. Burke says that both he and Kelly Lamrock will be in cabinet following the election. Assuming that the Liberals form a government it would be almost certain that Greg Byrne, Eugene McGinley and Les Smith would be in the government caucus. Not all 5 could be in cabinet all being from greater Fredericton. One wonders if T.J. should be so certain? He has proved himself a very intelligent and effective MLA but that is a very talented and experienced caucus for the capital region. Somebody who should be in, won't be.


• Bernard Lord is mocking Shawn Graham's plan to hire a key group to advise the premier and cabinet on broader policy issues. Lord's criticism is two-pronged: (1) Graham must not have faith in New Brunswickers if he feels he needs to bring in outsiders for ideas; (2) local MLAs will have no authority if the premier and cabinet are simply guided by these "top dogs". Fairly weak and superficial attacks in my mind but that may be effective. In resposne to point one, a lot of New Brunswickers are wary of "outsiders" but a cabinet secretariat is an idea used in many provinces, including New Brunswick under Tory hero Richard Hatfield, and could easily be structured to include top New Brunswickers, top ex-pat New Brunswickers and true "outsiders" who would bring new and unique perspectives tempered by the New Brunswick reality imposed upon them by New Brunswickers in the secretariat and the whole-New Brunswick cabinet. Point two is just silly and immature. Ministers already receive most of their policy advise from top bureaucrats in their departments; this would just allow for a more solid and consistent vision from the centre. It would not in anyway change the role of the local MLA to stand up for their communities in the policy development process.


• Brian Gallant, the candidate running for the Liberals in Moncton East is interestingly enough a former Mr. New Brunswick and current president of the UdeM student union. The UdeM SU presidency is of course the only office to which Bernard Lord was successfully elected (after which he lost bids for Dieppe town council, MLA and PC nomination for the 1997 federal election) before winning the PC leadership in 1997. Perhaps we should not underestimate Mr. Gallant, 24, considering that he is just like the premier in having been a young student politician who surprised many by defeating the establishment. However, if history is to be our guide, Mr. Gallant needs to become a loser a few times over first.


• Chisolm Pothier, the former press secretary to Premier Lord who took the fall when Lord leaked a letter containing personal information about a constituent to tarnish the reputation of Liberal MLA Carmel Robichaud (rather than answer the substantive and unrelated questions she was asking) has made a triumphant return representing the Tory campaign to the media during this election cycle.


• Rick Miles, a early 20s student as I understand it, is the Liberal candidate for Fredericton-Silverwood according to various reports. This surprises me, but apparently not many others as it hasn't been mentioned that he defeated Anne Bertrand, in my mind a sure bet for cabinet, for the nomination. This could really change the race for Fredericton-Silverwood. It is presently marked too close to call, and I'll keep it there for now, but will this guy: a) prove to be a strong candidate despite his youth and inexperience; b) give Brad Green a surprise 4th election victory; c) allow Dennis Atchison and strong and well now local guy running under the NDP banner a sneak victory? Option c may sound silly but Green managed only 38% of the vote in 2003 against 2 relatively weak candidates. If dissatisfaction with Green is high, as it would seem to be, Atchison could become the consensus opposition candidate. This would spell for an interesting scenario down the road if Atchison were to win a seat and Allison Brewer were to lose in her bid (as is expected). Atchison was promoted as a potential leadership candidate and is very much a Robert Chisholm-type of charismatic moderate (by NDP standards) who could lead the NB NDP down the road that the NS NDP went in 1998. Very interesting.