Sunday, September 17, 2006

Final Predictions

Here is a list of all of the ridings, organized by my level of confidence.

I am more sure of the fate of this riding than of my age, name and sexual orientation

Nigadoo-Chaleur (Lib)
Nepisiguit (Lib)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib)
Shediac-Cap-Pelé (Lib)
Moncton North (Lib)
Albert (PC)
Saint John East (Lib)
Charlotte-The Isles (Lib)
Oromocto (PC)
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak (Lib)
Carleton (PC)
Victoria-Tobique (Lib)
Madawaska-les-Lacs (PC)

TOTAL: Lib 9, PC 4... can't we stop here?

I am 99% sure of the outcome

Dalhousie-Restigouche East (Lib)
Caraquet (Lib)
Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou (PC)
Tracadie-Sheila (PC)
Kent (Lib)
Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe (Lib)
Moncton Crescent (PC)
Petitcodiac (PC)
Riverview (PC)
Saint John Harbour (Lib)
Saint John Lancaster (Lib)
Fundy-River Valley (Lib)
Grand Lake-Gagetown (Lib)
Fredericton-Nashwaaksis (Lib)
New Maryland-Sunbury West (PC)
Woodstock (Lib)
Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André (Lib)
Edmundston-St. Basile (PC)

TOTAL: Lib 11, PC 7
RUNNING TOTAL: Lib 20, PC 11

I am confident

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre (Lib)
Miramichi Centre (Lib)
Tantramar (PC)
Dieppe Centre-Lewisville (Lib)
Hampton-Kings (PC)
Saint John-Fundy (Lib)
Rothesay (PC)
Charlotte-Campobello (Lib)

TOTAL: Lib 5, PC 3
RUNNING TOTAL: Lib 25, PC 14 - this number as minimums and all of the numbers above I think I can go to the bank with... an electorate can be unpredictable so I am less certain below

In my mind I feel confident, but I am somehow uneasy

Miramichi-Bay du Vin (Lib)
Southwest Miramichi (PC)
Moncton East (PC)
Kings East (PC)
Quispamsis (Lib)
Fredericton-Lincoln (Lib)

TOTAL: Liberal 3, PC 3
RUNNING TOTAL: Lib 28, PC 17

Toss ups - "nbpolitico's ten ridings to watch"

I've come to a bare Liberal majority so assuming some margin of error, the election will be won on the following ridings or, at least, the size of Shawn Graham's majority will be:

Bathurst (Lib)
Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Saveur (PC)
Rogersville-Koucibouguac (PC)
Kent South (PC)
Moncton West (PC)
Saint John Portland (Lib)
Fredericton-Silverwood (NDP)
York (PC)
York North (PC)
Restigouche-la-Vallée (PC)

FINAL PREDICTION: Lib 30, PC 24, NDP 1



So, essentially, I am predicting the Liberals will get at least 28 seats (though it could be 25 if the wheels fall off) and if people sense a Liberal win, the final 10 "ridings to watch" (of which I have 2 going Liberal for a total of 30) all could flip Liberal with an upward maximum of 38.

Thus, the Liberals have a heavy edge with a maximum margin of 38, while the Tories, in my view, could do no better than 30 (all the too close seats as well as three more where my gut is uneasy).

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Moncton Crescent (PC)although you have an incumbent there but I doubt he will win. Shirley Smallwood Liberal rain a very good smart campaign & I believe she will win.

You are giving Fredriction-Silver to NDP. That will be a big shock to Tories by losing their star candidate. Liberals may pull of there. My prediction:
32-34 Lilerals,
20 cons
and 1 NDP if your Fredericton Silverwood prediction holds.

Autism Reality NB said...

I hope your predictions are right. Parents of autistic children have had to fight for real treatment and education for 7 years of Team Lord government. Any accomplishment we obtained was paid for with costly, foot dragging delay by Team Lord. The delays cost many autistic children the chance for a better life.

If Lord goes in again we will pick up where we left off, knowing that progress will be brutally slow and that autistic children will continue to pay the price. If Shawn Graham's Liberals go in we have solid commitments, particularly in education, that we know will benefit our children. 30 Liberal seats? I hope so.

Anonymous said...

CLarifications: 1) It's Miramichi Bay-Neguac Riding but it's True Grit turf as you say even though Father Roger Duguay of the NDP will come in second, Tories third(surpise but because of internal PC riding fighting) Carmel Robichaud is being heavily touted as a sure-shot top Minister; (2) It's Centre-Peninsule-St-Sauveur Riding, but this will go to the Liberals because of the hospital issue(Pacquetville & Pokemouche gone deep red); (3) Miramichi-Bay du Vin: Liberal Bill Fraser(leader of the massive hospital protests) will win by at least 2500 votes; Tracadie-Sheila: This has turned into a toss-up:the Tories are in trouble because this is a traditional Grit seat and if the winds of change are in the air well Serge Roussel will be voted in because he is no doubt cabinet material; and (5) Southwest Miramichi: I've been hearing different echoes on this: Brent Taylor is popular more with the media then with ordinary Joe but people in the area know he would be powerful in a Lord Cabinet, and his COR past is still hurting some in the riding, also the softspoken Liberal incumbent Rick Brewer was not disliked and has much support in Boiestown, Blackville, Rapids, Renous areas plus MP Charles Hubbard has been active to assist him. So this may well go to the Liberals afterall!

Alvy Singer said...

Last warning: Stephane Doiron (NDP) in Caraquet.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 8:14...

Sorry about the riding names, a bit of a brain fart in some of those districts that didn't change much but added to their names. Will fix.

Alvy...

Sorry, I looked at the numbers upside down and I just can't see it. We shall see however.

Daniel said...

Anon 8:14, Brent Taylor's COR past does NOT hurt him in Southwest Miramichi; you forget he was elected there as a COR member in 1991, and that the riding is close to 100% English.

As for Rick Brewer's support in Blackville/Renous, that's to be expected, as even when the riding goes Tory, these areas are usually the strongest Liberal areas. The areas to watch will be the Upper Valley and the Millerton/Derby area.

On a completely unrelated note: Although I'm sure Shawn Graham will be a decent premier if he wins, all you people expecting some sort of Renaissance in NB as a result of his election will be quite disappointed. I suspect his style of governance will be similar to Lord's, and that some of you guys will be a tad angry when he breaks some of those pie-in-the-sky promises he's been making ;)

Anonymous said...

Downtown:

1) People don't want a change
2) Last time that voter turnout at advance polls was this high...1982!

Here's my prediction:(why you ask?)

Nigadoo-Chaleur (Lib)
Nepisiguit (PC)(Branch factor)
Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib)
Shediac-Cap-Pelé (Lib)
Moncton North (Lib)
Albert (PC)
Saint John East (Lib)
Charlotte-The Isles (Lib)
Oromocto (PC)
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak (Lib)Carleton (PC)
Victoria-Tobique (Lib)
Madawaska-les-Lacs (PC)
Dalhousie-Restigouche East (Lib)
Caraquet (Lib)
Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou (PC)
Tracadie-Sheila (PC)
Kent (PC) (Bouctouche Factor!)
Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe (Lib)
Moncton Crescent (PC)
Petitcodiac (PC)
Riverview (PC)
Saint John Harbour (Lib)
Saint John Lancaster (Lib)
Fundy-River Valley (Lib)
Grand Lake-Gagetown (PC)
Fredericton-Nashwaaksis (PC)
New Maryland-Sunbury West (PC)
Woodstock (PC)
Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André (PC)(Civic Centre)
Edmundston-St. Basile (PC)
Campbellton-Restigouche Centre (PC)(Traditionnaly Cons!)
Miramichi Centre (Lib)
Tantramar (PC)
Dieppe Centre-Lewisville (PC)(Trust me on this one!)
Hampton-Kings (PC)
Saint John-Fundy (Lib)
Rothesay (PC)
Charlotte-Campobello (PC)(Tinker bell factor!)
Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC)(Why not!)
Southwest Miramichi (PC)
Moncton East (PC)
Kings East (PC)
Quispamsis (PC)
Fredericton-Lincoln (Lib)
Bathurst (PC)(MacKay derserves it!)
Centre-Péninsule-Saint-Saveur (PC)
Rogersville-Koucibouguac (PC)
Kent South (PC)
Moncton West (PC)
Saint John Portland (PC)
Fredericton-Silverwood (NDP)
York (PC)
York North (PC)
Restigouche-la-Vallée (PC)

FINAL PREDICTION: PC 38,LIB 16, NDP 1

Cooker Boy said...

Anon 2:15..

You are dead wrong on this one... Smallwood has been running a desperate campaign. Her platform is all stuff John has already accomplished for the riding. She wants a New north end school, we hate to inform you... It is going to be built. John has had the comittement already and the architectual designs are complete. As soon as the District decides where it will go, they are down to 2 sites now, it will begin getting built.

Secondly, she has not offered anything new for this booming riding.

Face it, event the Libs have written this riding off.
Plus, John is very well liked in the riding. He's honest with voters and works very hard. His record speaks for itself.

See for yourself: www.JohnBetts2006.ca

nbpolitico said...

anon at 11:46 ... If the Tories win 38 or more seats, I will send you 20 bucks

Anonymous said...

Anon, How could the second highest advance poll be 1982 if the record was in 2003? You sound like an uneducated Tory.

Although im sure you cary a tory card, this time around your card will be as worthless as a bucket of rotten schrimp.

Liberals will win 30 seats at least. Most of your ridings (quispam) are just illusions.

1982, pffff idiot

Anonymous said...

Cooker boy, may be your John has the edge you say he has. However, he has been copycat of Shirley. Shirley's blog went up soon after your 'John's'blog went up. She registered with Atlantic bloggers and soon after he did the same. Looks John was more of a follower than leader. Same goes for announcements. John has problems. I heard Monctonians do not like John for some reason.

Anonymous said...

Daniel, You are a dreamer my friend. Wake up, smell the coffee. Bernie boy is losing and losing real bad.

Harrap said...

Fredericton-Lincoln is a riding I changed my mind over. At first I thought Brewer would siphon votes from Greg Byrne and allow the Tory candidate to come up the middle. Though now I am thinking Byrne will have the edge (the respected elder statesman) and the race will be for second place. Having Byrne there was the smartest move the Liberals made, otherwise I think that could have been a "leans Tory" riding - I don't see any way Brewer would have won.

Fredericton-Lincoln reminds me of the riding of Ottawa-Centre in the federal election. That was a safe Liberal seat but then the NDP decided to run Ed Broadbent in that riding. That gave the NDP the edge and they won the riding with a 6,000 vote margin.

Harrap said...

I think the Liberals have the edge in this election - I really only came to this conclusion in the last week of the campaign.

There are likely to be some surprises too -- safe Lib or safe Tory ridings going to the opponent - though I think your overall seat count will hold for the most part.

I can't see the Liberals going up to 38 seats though, max I'd say is 34 - they have momentum but it's not a juggernaut.

Daniel said...

Anon 1:17, how does my prediction that the Tories will win one riding because of a strong candidate, or that Shawn Graham will break some promises make me a "dreamer"?

If anything, it was one of the most reaonable replies to this post. As election day approaches, replies around here seem to be getting more and more ridiculous, i.e. "You sound like an uneducated Tory", "Bernard Lord will win 40 seats", "Bernard Lord is going down so wake up and smell the coffee", etc.

I may not agree with everything nbpolitico says, but at least his posts are coherent, intelligent, and grounded in reality, which is more than can be said about much of the partisan baloney posted by some of the "regulars" - who, for the most part, seem to be a bit shy about giving their name ;)

Anonymous said...

I still think York North will go Liberal. Nackawic and Millville voted Liberal in 2003 and then you have the pension lawsuit. This is my riding and it will be very interesting on Monday night

Fredericton/Nasis will continue to be Liberal. Douglas and Royal Road area were split in last election. Another riding I am watching.

Fredericton/Silverwood is the one to watch. It could go one of three ways. I would like to see this go NDP.

nbpolitico said...

harrap - I agree. Highly unlikely for the Libs to win 38 seats, hence why my prediction is 30. It is a possibilty but a very unlikely one.

anon at 2:25 - I agree, York North could go Liberal, hence why I have it down as a "riding to watch" ;)

TheBlueBlogger said...

To ANON 1:14 PM..

For the record John's Election Blog was up first, just some blogger caught wind of Shirley's first. John's first post was on Aug 18, shirley's was on the 25th. In fact, John has had a blog since last winter.

As for the Atlantic bloggers, you are correct.

I have lived in Moncton Crescent for 5 years and have never heard anyone say anything negative about John so stop spreading false information and present some factual evidence.

Anonymous said...

2:25 PM be careful with Fredericton/Nasis. I thought you were talking about Nazis:) I agree with your prediction.

Anonymous said...

TheBlueBlogger, I am not spreading rumours. I heard that because of he being just in the pocket of Mr. Lord and never making it to the cabinet made him a target at the riding level. He is a John who does not matter in the Lord government. With tide turning in favour of Liberals, people of Moncton Crescent want a voice at the cabinet table. Shirley might make it to the cabinet as there are fewer women in the caucus.

Peter Kincaid said...

I think the Liberals were heading for 35 plus seats but I think they peaked a few days too early. I think the pro Conservative Times-Transcript publishing the faulty poll like it did helped rally the Conservative rank and file a bit. Otherwise I think some MLAs were ready to take Bernard down some back alley and give him a new look for losing their pensions. ;-) I'm leaning towards 29-30 seats for the Liberals and would be surprised if the NDP gets any. Voter turnout will be better than last time. Just my opinion.

Anonymous said...

Peter Kincaid, good opinion.

Harrap said...

The Liberal nomination in Moncton-Crescent was contested by three candidates - this is a sign that many Liberals saw this as a winnable riding.

I'm thinking this riding could be a surprise Liberal win... and who knows, if my latest prediction about Fredericton-Lincoln is wrong, that riding will be a surprise Tory win :)

Anonymous said...

My prediction remains as follows:

Liberal: 32 plus
Cons : 23 or less
NDP : 0

However, if there is a political earthquake between now and tomorrow it might change

Anonymous said...

2003 Shawn Graham had the "Insurance wave" going his way. Unfortunately that was his high water mark.

Final seat count:

PC: 30
Lib: 25

John Betts in not going to get beat, and neither is Cy LeBlanc. The only "new" liberal wins I can see are Tanker's seat and Memramcook-Dieppe Lakeville. The Tories will make up those loses by wining the battle of incumbents (Percy v Bert), Frank Branch's seat (I forget the name), the Denis Landry v. Louis-Philip McGraw rematch, and Sussex.

Cooker Boy said...

Who says that John Betts wouldn't make it to cabinet? He was caucus chair and deputy speaker. Not to mention Moncton has the Premier and Joan McAlpine in Cabinet. Add Claude Williams who is just in the neighboring riding and you can see that Moncton didn't need another Cab Min.

As for the nomination... Ray and the other chap ran the last time and wanted to run again. All the real contenders like Goerge Leblanc stayed away becasue John is so well like.

Anonymous said...

PC: 30
Lib: 25
5:17 PM dreaming again. Have some coffee. Drop by Tim Hortons.

Here is the reality:

Liberal: 32 plus
Cons : 23 or less
NDP : 0

Anonymous said...

I mostly agree with NBPolitico with the exception of Moncton Crescent. That seat is going Liberal. John Betts did not catch the imagination of people this time. People are unhappy with Lord and his coattails are lethal.

Lee said...

333 Those of us who live in Fredericton North never say Nashwaaksis, it is Nasis to us.

I also agree with the prediction.

Lee said...

I can hardly wait for tomorrow night. I hope to be on line with all of you. I am one lady who is hoping for the best outcome.

Spinks said...

"I am more sure of the fate of this riding than of my age, name and sexual orientation"

NBpolitico, you know these types of lines can come back to haunt you don't you. LOL. Get out and vote tomorrow folks and good blogging with you. It's made the election fun.

Peter Kincaid said...

As I believe nothing will change between today and tomorrow, I took my shot at the CBC mug. Its a real crap shoot though with the popular vote down to "two" decimal places. If anyone is bang on they should have bought a lottery ticket. ;-)

Peter Kincaid said...

Further to my last message, are there any statisticians tuning in to figure out the odds of guessing right for the CBC mug? You have a choice of 28-55 seats in combo with 100 choices for each percentage point from say perhaps 40 to 60 percent of the vote. I know I have been out of school too long to figure this out right. Must be something in the vicinity of 1 in 50000 though.

Dink said...

Restigouche-la-Vallée is in your "toss-up" column? If that's what you consider a toss-up, you might be totally wrong in your predictions.

Anonymous said...

I must agree and say that Saint John Portland is going RED with the Liberal wave that will hit the province tomorrow. Trevor has been fighting a losing battle here in this riding and I think he finally realized it this week. He looks defeated in his public appearances (that is, when he has them). He has been very low keyed this week. Collen Knudson has gained a great deal of ground in this riding and will win it without a doubt.

northernnb said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

nbpolitico you have consistently ignored the York riding (lack of info I guess). I see this one going Liberal. It will go with the provincial tide due to the large suburban vote in Hanwell (and the Liberals have the momentum now). The Liberal candidate is new to politics but is eager and has a better grasp of the issues (particularly in Hanwell which is 40% of the riding)

Alvy Singer said...

Shawn Graham seems to have spent a fair bit of time in Caraquet yesterday... hmmmm...

Clearly its too late to revise your predictions, but Caraquet may go NDP.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 10:37... I share your view and that is precisely why it is listed in my 10 ridings to watch.

Alvy - as I mentioned in response to your earlier comment "I looked at the numbers upside down and I just can't see it. We shall see however."

Anonymous said...

123kid,

Schryer in Quispamsis- it will be close, but Fowlie only won by 19 votes last election. Schryer keeps gaining momentum in my town day after day, and Fowlie had been unheard of for weeks. Schryer by more than 200

Daniel said...

Overall, these predictions seem OK, but, as is the case with any prediction, it is somewhat slanted toward who the predictor wants to win.

Now, I generally agree on who you think the winners will be, I just disagree with some of the "safe/lean" predictons, i.e. to call a fairly close riding like Restigouche-La-Vallée "leans Tory" while calling another fairly close riding like Campbellton-Restigouche Centre "safe Liberal" seems a tad inaccurate.

It reminds me a bit of the 2006 federal election, ironically, in Madawaska-Restigouche. Many people predicted either a Liberal blowout or an outside chance of an NDP breakthrough; however, when election night rolled around, the Conservative candidate was leading right up until the last few polls reported in, and even then was only defeated by about 200 votes, if memory serves correctly.

I have a feeling a lot of us (including myself) will be sitting down to a nice meal of crow tomorrow ;)

Anonymous said...

The NDP winning Fredericton- Silverwood? I don't think so!

It will be either Rick Miles or Brad Green, I'm saying that right now!

nbpolitico said...

Daniel said...
Overall, these predictions seem OK, but, as is the case with any prediction, it is somewhat slanted toward who the predictor wants to win.


It is actually quite the opposite. My original tally had the Liberals a bit higher, but I revisited the ridings and, when unsure, gave the Tories the edge to make sure that I didn't give the Liberals any seats they wouldn't get so, if there was bias, it wouldn't be in favour of my prefered party.

As for Campbellton-Restigouche Centre, I have explained in some other comments sections that the "safe/lean" designation has to do with my confidence in how the riding will go, not the margin.

For example, Campbellton-RC may be close, but I am fairly confident it will go Liberal. York may be won by a large margin but I am not sure who will win it.

Moreover, in my final prediction, the "leans" seats I wanted to trim to 10 so I could have a round number of "ridings to watch".

Anonymous said...

Ma plus grande reconnaissance de votre analyse et de vos prédictions qui ont été très juste sauf qq exceptions mais la petite différence des votes explique bien votre travail très professionnel, mes félicitations
F