Friday, September 15, 2006

Getting closer...

Restigouche-la-Vallée - Leans Lib to leans PC

Though my analysis assures me that, all things being equal, this seat should slip Liberal. The massive consensus of media and other bloggers coupled with the Omnifacts poll showing the Tories dominating in these parts seems to suggest that either my analysis sucks or all things are not equal.

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - Too close to leans PC

This riding has a Tory history, I have received several emails telling me that the Liberal campaign is in trouble and the poll here shows that the PCs have a large amount of votes which I don't think are coming from the two Victoria County ridings and I think La-Vallée will be close so the Tories must be winning somewhere else and this is the only choice.

Bathurst - Leans Lib to safe Lib

Considering the Liberal dominance in the poll for this region, I think it is time to call this safe.

Caraquet - Leans Lib to safe Lib

Considering the Liberal dominance in the poll for this region and the lack of NDP support, I think it is time to call this safe.

Centre-Péninsule - Leans PC to leans Lib

The riding was going to be and is going to be a nail biter. I think that the poll for this region though pushes the Liberals over the top.

Tracadie-Sheila - Safe PC to leans PC

I don't think the Liberals are going to win here but the lack of the strong PC incumbent and a Liberal surge in this region could pull it red.

Miramichi Centre - Leans PC to leans Lib

I have received more tips on this riding than any other since I moved to to leans PC. Everyone says it is staying Liberal.

Tantramar - Too close to leans PC

I hear that the Liberal candidate is being outperformed by the PC candidate and that the NDP is going no where. It could get pulled into the Liberal column if their momentum grows, but for now I expect it to go PC.

York - Too close to leans PC

I really don't have much of a feeling for this riding, but the Tory lead in Central NB means they must be doing very well in rural areas, this district included.


I need some real guidance on Fredericton-Silverwood. I think in the end the riding could go any of three ways and there are different school of thought on how.

I think that the NDP is doing very well here and will win if the Tories can hold on to government. Ironically, if the Tories lose, I think a Liberal surge will steal NDP support and allow Brad Green to hang on.

Alvy Singer thinks that if the Tories win Brad Green will carry on but a Liberal surge will steal PC votes allowing the NDP up the middle.

Then there is always the possibility that a Liberal surge will allow, you guessed it, the Liberal to win.

Please share your thoughts!


Spinks said...

Miramichi Centre and Bathurst going Liberal. This sounds familiar doesn't it NBpolitico. LOL.

Fredericton-Silverwood, I'm with Alvy, Brad Green gets it due to the split. Same for the PC's in Fredericton-Lincoln. It won't be by much and both ridings will probably be the last to call but vote splitting becomes the story the day after.

nbpolitico said...

Yep right back where I started on those two ridings!

I think that the PCs finish third in Fredericton-Lincoln.

spinks - are you sure you're with Alvy? She says Atchison wins if it is a Liberal government.

Alvy Singer said...

I (who am, incidentally, quite male, like Woody Allen's lead character in Annie Hall after who I am named) don't remember saying that.

I actually had roughly the same thought process as you, nbpolitico. I wrote this:

I am getting the sense that Atchison is the anti-Brad Green candidate of choice. I believe that the race will be very tight and involving all three candidates, and that the only thing keeping Liberal candidate Rick Miles in the race is some (but not all!) of the Liberal base vote and traditional bifurcated party thinking.

That is to say that, while Atchison may be the anti-Green choice, he will be hurt somewhat by the fact that some people will mistakenly believe that voting Miles is the only way to defeat Green.

That said, if there is a Red Tide [which is also a kind of poisoning, you know] on election night, I suspect that it will sweep up Miles too.

So I guess that means that I agree with you, more or less.

nbpolitico said...

Sorry Alvy, I've been feminizing you for quite some time. How embarrassing.

I can't seem to find where I thought you said what I am saying you said, did you say it? If not, I'll deattribute the remarks.

I am sure someone said a Liberal surge in Silverwood would steal enough votes from Green to give Atchison the win. Didn't I?

Spinks said...

The PC's SHOULD finish third in Fredericton-Lincoln and Greg Byrne SHOULD win and the NDP SHOULD have been able to find a better leader. Bottom line, that's a lot of should. 1st to third in Fredericton Lincoln will be a 500 vote margin. If ever there was a riding to get the vote out, this one is it.

Reg said...

Fred-Lincoln will be a surprise. Forrestall has been working non-stop over the past month going door to door. Plus, he's picking up hard left downtown votes due to the fact he is very well known and respected in the arts community - a sizable demographic in the area that have yearned for a true voice in government for decades. He's going to be the best story of Monday night - the artist who defeated the party leader and party president.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

" very well known and respected in the arts community" To Reg: sure people who cannot afford housing, car insurance, gas and food are looking for more art and artists. Be real.

herringchoker said...


I think a little censorship on anon 5:28 is called for. If the Grits are resorting to online whisper campaigns, they should do it on their own sites, so they can be sued.

Harrap said...

Check out my latest blog entry for my theory on Fredericton-Silverwood ;)

Anonymous said...

I thought Alvy Singer was a good looking female! Shoots.

Just kidding.

Anonymous said...

Rumors are persistent that Shawn Graham is already planning to form his Cabinet. Let's see in Neguac Sunday night, if he mentions Carmel Robichaud, his only seasoned woman in his ranks. Inside talk has it that she'll lead a new Training and Employment Department. She definitely have the vision to make much needed changes!

Anonymous said...

Renewed driver's license for all!

Reg said...

Anon 7:02 - It's all demographics and if you knew the east platt of Fredericton, you'd know that to have the backing of the arts community down there is significant.