Thursday, August 17, 2006

Moncton East and Fredericton-Silverwood

A couple of riding changes today, one based on a candidate entering the race and one based on an expected candidate not entering.

In Fredericton-Silverwood, I had already started to pen Health Minister Brad Green's obituary. That may have been premature. While Anne Bertrand will be a strong candidate for the Liberals (presuming she wins her nomination on Saturday), she may have trouble shoring up her left flank. Dennis Atchison, who ran in conservative Fredericton North in 2003 and still managed to get 17% of the vote, will be able to hold, at least, the 22% that the NDP scored in Fredericton South last time. I am not saying that Atchison is likely to win here, but he may be strong enough to let Green win by sneaking up the middle. Therefore, I am moving this one from leaning Liberal to too close to call.

In Moncton East, as a commentor on this blog had already said, it seems Chris Collins will not be making a rematch against the premier. This is still a Liberal riding but it takes a far bit to knock off a party leader who has proved to be electorally viable in the district. I am moving this one from too close to call to leans Progressive Conservative.


Spinks said...

I think Green will have to do some strong campaigning but I'd be surprised if he got turfed. It's a pretty conservative side of the River. Although Brad Green is far from charistmatic, he does come across as more personable than Bertrand. I really don't think the Liberals picked a strong candidate here. Name recognition, yes, but not the personality to go with it.

Alvy Singer said...

I totally agree with nbpolitico on Atchison. The conditions for success are far greater in Fredericton-Silverwood than they were in the old Fredericton North riding. Bordering on Brewer's campaign will help, too.

nbpolitico said...

Perhaps spinks but in a race against Misty McLaughlin and Nan Luke, Brad Green got only 38% of the vote.

I think Bertrand is a way better candidate than McLaughlin and Atchison is a stronger candidate than Luke.

Spinks said...

Yeah nbpolitico, I'd concur they're stronger candidates. I just don't think they're strong enough. Unlike Alvy, I don't see Brewer bordering on a riding helping anyone. I may change my tune as the campaign gets underway but I still think Brewer is the largest liability the NDP has.

nbpolitico said...

I agree Brewer is a huge liability for the NDP.

Bertrand is plenty strong to beat Green, easily, under normal circumstances. But it is pretty hard for any Liberal to win when the NDP is at 20-25%

This is why I have moved it from a Liberal gain to too close to call.