Thursday, September 07, 2006

Re-evaluating the leaners

A lot of the seats I have listed as leaning one way or the other don't really belong there. In some cases this is because my own rules from the original projection was that only incumbents could be declared safe coming out of the gate. In other cases, I thought there might be something there to push a riding one way but it didn't turn out to be the case. So, as a result, I am making the following changes:

  • Nepisiguit moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal

  • Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou moves from leans PC to safe PC

  • Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal

  • Dieppe Centre-Lewisville moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal

  • Saint John East moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal

  • York North moves from leans PC to safe PC

11 comments:

Cooker boy said...

You might want to reconsider Dieppe Centre-Lewisville... The riding encompasses much of the Premiers old riding and includes the kay Community projects.

nbpolitico said...

The original proposal for that riding included a lot of the Premier's old riding, however the final version includes only a small, small portion.

Anonymous said...

NB Politico...on the 19th of September, you will certainly give your head a shake and I really did not know what I'm talking about..
Again, I will remind you..listen to cooker boy!

Nepisiguit moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal (Wrong)

Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou moves from leans PC to safe PC (Right)

Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal (Right)

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal
(Out to lunch...As indicated Cy is winning heavily in Lewisville and in the Old Dieppe and in St. Anselme he'll poll 50/50)
Saint John East moves from leans Liberal to safe Liberal

York North moves from leans PC to safe PC (Right)

Everybody I'm talking to indicate that Lord will make significant gain in French speaking area - Kent, Peninsule and Restigouche

So your analysis is a dream...

Anonymous said...

You can give your predictions from here to eternity but there is a safe bet. Liberals had 26 before election was called. They will win back those 26 + they will pick up one or two more at the minimum. End result: Bye bye Bernie.

Anonymous said...

Watch out for Kent!!! Word on the street is that Graham is in difficulty and popular Bouctouche mayor is seeing lots of support from old Liberal supporters... Word in Bouctouche is he will landslide the town as Graham is very unpopular!!! It certainly not a safe seat... One question how the heck can you predict a Liberal government since all the polls since March are showing almost 60% approval for the governament, Lord is 10 points up on Graham in popularity and the PC's have averaged 4-5 pints up on the Liberals since March?

BTW... Claude Williams is very safe in Kent South...word on the street is that his opponnent (Nadine Hebert) has even left her HQ to campaign...

Anonymous said...

3:05 PM theorize as much as you want but anger is against the sitting government. Like it or not people often vote against and not for. Where you got the figure of 60% approval rating beats me.

You mention Bernard Lord in coffee shops you hear expletive deletives.

Anonymous said...

I am sorry it wasn't 60% it was 58%
Here is the link;

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/newbrunswick/polls.php

These are the facts....Like them or not...

Anonymous said...

That was in August and that is why he rushed to call elections. It is September now and election is on. Every day is an eternity in politics. Since elections have been called those wounds of cutting healthcare and many other fiascos have been opened up wide. Mr. Lord is making world of promises, and having done everything contrary to it in last 7+ years, is going to bring him political doom. Like it or not.

nbpolitico said...

When I say "safe" it doesn't have to do with the margin of victory, it has to do with my own certainty that a candidate will win.

You are right that Graham is not doing well in Bouctouche which was just added to the riding. It will be enough to make the race a lot closer than in 2003, but not enough for Graham to loose.

I am not projecting a Liberal government. As I have explained over and over, I only have confidence in "safe" seats. I am projecting 20 for the Liberals and 13 for the Tories with 22 leaning one way or too close to call. The victor of this race will depend on the results of the result of the campaign.

Also, you think Lord is safe because he has 58% approval. He had the same in 2003 and barely won. Those who hate Lord hate him a lot and the Liberals have a stronger slate than the Tories. This gives the Liberals an edge not necessarily reflected in the polls.

Anonymous said...

I saw you guys talk about the Kent Riding... I also saw some blogs at this following link;
http://www.cbc.ca/nbvotes2006/blog/poitras/2006/09/ten_ridings_to_watch_version_1_1.html

Usually when there is smoke there is fire!!!! I have a friend that is from the area and he says that Bouctouche, St-Marie, St-Paul plus traditionnal Tory areas like Harcourt and Adamsville will go blue this time... Interesting to watch!!! Shawn could be in trouble...

Anonymous said...

Let's all be realistic. The liberals won 26 seats in 2003 on the "Insurance wave". Governments in NB do not get ellected, they get defeated. To get defeated, there needs to be outrage on 1 major issue.

There is no such issue in this election.

Sure Lord generally messed up on alot of things, but in peoples view all governments do.

Shawn Graham tried to make Orimulsion the new "insurance" issue. Unfortunately, people haven't grabbed on to it. Why, because they haven't gotten an actual bill in the mail marked Orimulsion => $8,000.00. The tolls in 1999 were $7 directly out of their pocket. In 2003 Insurance was directly out of their pocket.

Unfortunately that 26 was Shawn Graham's high water mark.