Friday, August 11, 2006

Campaign day 1 (or -8 depending on your perspective)

The Times & Transcript has a list of all candidates nominated or announced to date and this is included on the Wikipedia election site.

It is interesting that according to the T&T there are three interested in the Liberal nomination for Nepisiguit but according to the TJ there seems to be some outside change that Frank Branch will be the Liberal candidate, I'll quote the whole article as it is rather brief:

The fate of Frank Branch, the Independent MLA for Nepisiguit and a former member of the Liberal caucus, remains unclear.

Branch, the longest-serving MLA in the legislature at 27 years, quit the Liberal party in January after Bathurst police began an investigation into activities at the North Shore Forest Products Marketing Board where he was a senior employee for the past decade.

The independent MLA alleged he was the victim of an elaborate frame-up during several speeches in the legislature this spring.

"I've not had the opportunity to talk to Mr. Branch but I hope to have the opportunity to talk to Mr. Branch this weekend to see what his long-term plans are," said Liberal Leader Shawn Graham.

Graham wouldn't say if he would welcome the MLA back into the Liberal fold for the election.

"It's important that I talk to Mr. Branch," he said.

Branch could not be reached for comment.
So I am not sure what Graham wants to talk to Branch about (i.e. whether it is to ask him to run as a Liberal, to ask him not to run or what have you) but he certainly seems very eager to do so. Wikipedia claims (I see no source elsewhere so I remain unconvinced) that Gilles Halley is seeking the NDP nod in Nepisiguit. I maintain that if he does so, he could win the riding.

Also, the Tories are running a strong candidate against Shawn Graham - the mayor of Bouctouche, Aldéo Saulnier, is going to be the Tory candidate. Though I think Graham should be safe, he'll have to pay a lot more attention to his riding than he would have liked considering that Saulnier comes from the heavily francophone part of the redistributed riding which Graham has never represented before.

The TJ also reports that "Liberal Leader Shawn Graham has already acknowledged this election is his last chance to ascend to the premier's office". Not surprising that that is the case but interesting that that is already out there, from Graham, before election day.

The T&T, TJ and DG all may reference to the ludicrous amoung of money that has been spent over the past while and all state that having another week to spread money around is probably part of the reason why Lord is not formally calling the election until next week. If this continues to get attention, I think the reaction towards Lord will be quite negative. A look at Communications New Brunswick's site will show you a huge ramp up in the number of announcements lately. People are tired of this kind of politics IMHO.

That's it from me for now. I am away for the weekend so you probably won't see anything new from me until late Sunday or more likely Monday. Have a great weekend.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl Davies is one my favourite journalist. He nicely pointed out how Bernard Lord talks from both sides of his mouth.


“Lord said he decided to tell people the date a week in advance to put an end to the rampant speculation about an election date and to give people an extra week to get ready for the campaign.

It also gives his government another week to make good-news announcements leading up to the official election campaign.

Later Thursday, Lord spoke about his government's record and future plans for education at the unveiling of architectural drawings for a new $13 million middle school in Fredericton.”
Carl Davies

Anonymous said...

Do not go away for the weekend as things are getting heated up:):) Just kidding. Have a nice weekend.

Shawn Graham cannot lose his seat. Godfather is there, the senior Graham, to do the campaigning.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 2:44..

You are right Shawn and Alan cannot be defeated... it will just be a small battle as opposed to a cakewalk.

Anonymous said...

Spinks, you are the only one that makes sense in the whole bunch...nbpolitico, what color is the sky in your world?

Here is what's going on:

- Campbellton (Tory) Boudreau executive in turmoil
- Bathurst (Tory)Nancy McKay is cabinet material
- Kings East (Tory) why in the hell you think it would be red? That a traditionnal Tory riding.
- Grand Falls (Tory) Mayor of Drummond is great guy.
-Shippagean (Tory) Robichaud will probably win biggest Majority in NB!
I could continue to go on and on...here's my predictions:

PC 31
Lib 24
NDP 0

The ridings to watch:
- Bathrust
- Tantramar
- Memramcook
- Quispamsis
- Grand Falls
- Fredericon-Nashwaak

Why the Liberals won't win:

1) I like old people, but the Liberals have approx. 15 sitting candidates over 60 years old
2) We all know for a fact that Leadership hopefuls are openly seeking their own candidates
3)At caucus this week in Memramcook, I hear it was not pretty, it's 1982 all over again
4) I can see it now...one Liberal candidate saying "If we had another leader, we would have a chance!"
5) Fedreal Conservative Government will certainly make a difference...in 2003, Fed Lib were also great help for Shawny
6) Personnally, I think we have seasoned 2006 press gallery compared to 2003 who were a bunch of rookies. We'll have better coverage this time.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 4:13...
I'll look into it re: Campbellton, I had not heard that

Bathurst - McKay ran last time and lost, Kenny has been a decent MLA and the incumbency will help him

Kings East - Not a Tory seat any longer after the agriculture cuts; moreover, Shawn Graham is a hero there... he was Ag Critic when the cuts came and led them in their anti-Lord protest

Grand Falls - this is a hugely safe Liberal seat and the people of Grand Falls won't vote for someone from Drummond anyway and they outnumber them 8 to 1

Shippigan - you are properly right but history suggests we should at least take a look

Anonymous said...

4:13 PM I do not think you make any sense. Mr. Lord has screwed this province on many issues, healthcare, NB Power and Orimulsion, Highway Tolls, auto insurance and on and on. List is simply too long. It is pay back time. NBers will not be fooled again. Your leader and hero is a toast. Good-bye Lord and his fiascos. We will be paying for his blunders for few generations to come.

from the marsh said...

Tantramar

Tories running: Dorchester Mayor Mel Goodland and former hs teacher Mike Olscamp. Rumors are flying that Mesheau's campaign manager--- from 1998 to 2003---Frank Oulton--- will throw his hat in the ring to replace his old buddy and boss.

Spinks said...

I have to disagree on a few things 4:36. I'm not convinced we're any worse off in the healthcare system than we were a few years ago. I understand people getting emotional when hospitals close but the fact of the matter is we simply a) can't afford all of those hospitals with our little population and b) we couldn't get the staff to fill them adequately anyway. A building without nurses or doctors really is of little use. It was a tough decision but that's why we elect governments. Somtimes the decisions aren't popular. Last election it cost the Tories seats in Caraquet, Minto and Dalhousie because the locals were understandably upset. It might, cost them a seat in Woodstock this time. Still the healthcare system needed a tough revamping and at least the Tories did do something. I would imagine Shawn Graham is pretty grateful. If he gets in he won't have to do it and I can guarantee he won't reverse the decision. The decision wasn't popular but it was the right thing to do to ensure primary healthcare is sustainable.

Highway tolls? Like you, I don't agree with it but Lord promised it in '99 and the people who voted him in knew it. A politician who kept a promise? I can't argue with that.

Auto insurance. Took a little longer than it should (They should have been looking at it in 2002), but they did the right thing. We don't have a big bill on the books for starting up another government run entity and insurance bills are back to '02 levels. Mine is cheaper than it was then even by a few bucks. However I've changed insurance companies a number of times. You do have to shop around.

Orimulsion I'll give you. I still blame the blundering on NB Power officials but it's a crown corporation under the Tory's watch. They have to bear the responsibility for that one.

Anonymous said...

Spinks, and you say you are not a Tory. I will not go into too much detail. He screwed up on tolls big times. You know why? Winning an election took priority on everything else. And now we are losing hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Money has to come from somewhere to look after the highways. Guess what? Cut in other services and health is one of the major one where big scissors were used. I am not convinced there was a need for all those cuts other than even out the losses. Oh yes! Now it takes ages to be seen in ER. God forbid you do not land there.

Orimulsion. Why you think PUB was sacked because the chair was asking too many questions about it. That was too much for Bernie to take it. Hail Bernie.

Spinks said...

Just my take on it friend from a non-partisan who frankly at this point couldn't care less which party gets in. Most of the Liberals are more conservative than some of the PC's anyway.

As a public service and from personal experience here is "Spinks health care system tip of the day". Getting into the ER has always been bad as long as I can remember. I don't think that's worse or better. One thing I do like is the after-hour clinics. Those are a godsend. Just a suggestion, but next time you're headed to the ER, if you can go to an after-hours clinic instead do so. The wait is considerably less unless you have a serious case and if your case is that serious you'll get to the front of the line at the hospital because of the triage they perform. The health cares system sure isn't perfect and I challenge anyone to show me a province where it is but the after-hours clinics have worked out pretty well. We could use more.

Anonymous said...

"Most of the Liberals are more conservative than some of the PC's anyway." You may be right on that.

Is healthcare better now? Fat chance. ER, yes it takes upto 6-8hours where I am compared to 1-3 hours before all these so-called reforms.

Charles LeBlanc said...

hey nbpolitics???? Where's my link???? Did you fire moi????...lol

Anonymous said...

“He (Lord)cares about people and I care about people too," said Saulnier. "The vision of the Conservative Party is much better for the future than the Liberals' with Shawn Graham."

Saulinier who is running against Shawn Graham. Shawn Graham may be perceived to have problems as a leader but this Saulnier fellow is out to lunch. He should come out of the woods in Kent County and smell the coffee. Lord cares about people? Saulinier must be hibernating for last 7 years. Lord cares about himself only and he has screwed the people of this province.

Anonymous said...

There is only one thing clear. When a party makes 'leadership' an electoral issue it means one thing-they don't have much else.

Mesheau quits and forces an election, Tanker has a hissy fit, quits, gets a speaker job and a bunch of perks, rejoins the party-after being called a liar. Two Cabinet ministers quit over scandals.

The only leadership in question that I've ever seen is Lord's and that's by his own people. On the economic blogs they are talking about how 'insiders' point out that if Mesheau were Premier we'd be far better off because apparantly Lord micro-manages to such an extend nothing gets done without his say so.

As for health care, don't take ANYBODY's word for it. Who here has been to the ER of every hospital every day at every time of day? Anybody? The only thing people can speak of is from experience, and unless your terminally ill thats pretty limited.

Health care SHOULD be better now because its the only place they are spending more money. It may take a bit for those changes to kick in.

As for ER's, they vary highly by hospital. As I've said before, if you want ER service quick, you go to Oromocto, not Fredericton.

They used to have a website where they listed wait times, but I haven't been able to find it.