tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-306948772024-03-07T22:34:39.992-04:00Politics from a New Brunswick perspectivenbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger452125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-41242284087520924372020-11-03T08:00:00.002-04:002020-11-03T08:00:02.741-04:00U.S. election watching guide<p><b>1. Florida</b></p><p>This is painful for me to write as I have rolled my eyes as pundits said "it all comes down to Florida" in every election cycle since Florida was "decisive" in 2000. (And, in reality, Florida wasn't that decisive; if Gore had won <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Tennessee">Tennessee</a> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire">New Hampshire</a>, just as close and easier lifts, he would have won without Florida).</p><p>But this year, it really does come down to Florida; mostly. Particularly if you are looking for an early resolution to the election.<br /></p><p>According to Nate Silver's 538 projection model, Trump has a <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#FL:0">less than 1% chance</a> of winning the election overall if he loses in Florida.</p><p>Biden could still win if he loses in Florida, but if he loses in Florida, it means it is a really tight race that won't likely be resolved for several days.</p><p>Florida is also one of the few critical states that will <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/">complete most of its counting of all ballots on election night</a>, meaning it is likely to be called unless the state is very close.</p><p>So watch for the call in Florida. If Biden wins, he has almost certainly won the election. Otherwise, we will have to look elsewhere for signs.</p><p><b>2. South Carolina<br /></b></p><p>South Carolina's polls close early (7 p.m. Eastern) and count all of their ballots on election day. Biden is highly unlikely to win here, but if he does, he has almost certainly won the election. If it is really close here, he has also almost certainly won. Similarly if Trump does about as well here or only slightly worse than he did here in 2016 (he won by 14 percentage points), then that bodes well for Trump to hold the neighbouring states of North Carolina and Georgia.</p><p>So here is your Carolina voting guide:</p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Biden win to 5 point loss: Biden has likely carried North Carolina and Georgia and won the election;</li><li>Trump win of 5 to 10 points: Biden is significantly over-performing Clinton in the south and likely wins unless Trump majorly over-performs elsewhere (holding his mid-west victories from 2016 and picking up something like Minnesota or Nevada);</li><li>Trump win of 10+ points: not a lot to read-in here, move on.<br /></li></ul><p><b>3. Trump?</b><br /></p><p>Other states that count most of their ballots on election day that are worth watching include New Hampshire (8 p.m. Eastern), Missouri (8 p.m. Eastern), and Nebraska (9 p.m. Eastern).</p><p>If Trump wins in New Hampshire, a state he has targeted but lost in 2016, that is a very good sign for him. Though a small state, 538 says Trump's odds jump to 40% from 10% if he wins here.</p><p>Not a lot has been written about Missouri which is not expected to be a battleground. However, traditionally it was and when Obama lost here in 2008 (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_presidential_election_in_Missouri">by only 4,000 votes!</a>) it was only the second time in over a century that Missouri had voted against the overall winner. Democrats remain competitive here in other statewide contests and the state has been identified on lists of Biden stretch targets were he to be headed for a blowout. On the other hand, if Trump can hold his margin here (he won by 19 percentage points in 2016!), that is a very good sign for him and perhaps also a good sign for him in neighbouring Iowa--a must win state for Trump.</p><p>In Nebraska, it all comes down to the second congressional district. Nebraska, like Maine, awards electoral votes by district. Biden is heavily favoured in this district which voted for Obama in 2008. So much so that if Trump wins it, even though it is worth only 1 electoral vote, it boosts Trump's national chances to 33% in the 538 simulator. If Trump wins the 5 electoral votes of NH and NE-02, <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#N2:1,NH:1">538 shifts him to the favourite with a 58% chance of winning</a> the national electoral vote!</p><p><b>4. Other States</b></p><p>No other even quasi-competitive state will complete counting their ballots on election night and the networks are likely to be very hesitant to call these states unless there is a blow out. For example, Ohio and Iowa: they <i>might</i> be called if someone is ahead by 5+ points in the count of what has been counted. If Trump or Biden were to be declared the winner in these states on election night, they would probably have won the election. I doubt we will see that happen however.<br /></p><p><b>5. Pennsylvania</b></p><p>The real bad news comes if it all comes down to Pennsylvania.</p><p>Imagine <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/R0NOp">a plausible map like this</a> where Biden and Trump each have 259 electoral votes and Pennsylvania is too close to call.</p><p>The election result is <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/10/29/heres-why-pennsylvania-ballots-will-take-so-long-to-count-and-how-trump-could-challenge-the-result/?sh=6d08da366bff">unlikely to be finalized until late Friday at the earliest</a>, and perhaps not until next week. And that is before lawsuits begin for recounts or disqualification of certain ballots. So if it all comes down to Pennsylvania, we will be prognosticating on whether or not 2020 beats the record of 2000 when it took <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/al-gore-concedes-presidential-election">until Dec. 13 to resolve the election</a>. Not to mention the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/fears-of-violence-as-donald-trump-joe-biden-race-draws-to-close/12817748">other unfortunate things</a> that might occur in this circumstance.</p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-61582636055298376952020-10-14T07:00:00.019-03:002020-10-14T07:00:01.806-03:00Immigration is not the silver bullet to growing our labour forceIt has been said that “demographics are destiny” and this can’t possibly be more true anywhere than it is in New Brunswick. Population growth, or perhaps more specifically, labour force growth, is by far the most urgent public policy issue facing our province and addressing this could solve many other challenges.<br /><br />Other problems that preoccupy our politics are just symptoms of our demographic challenge. <br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Deficits? They would be easily resolved if we had more workers paying taxes and spending disposable income. <br /></li></ul><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Wait times in health care? Wouldn’t have them if we attracted more doctors and nurses. <br /></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>More jobs? It is the chicken and the egg; many companies can’t expand or locate here because they can’t fill all of the positions they need to make a go of it. It is a frustrating irony that we have thousands who can’t find jobs and dozens of businesses that can’t fill jobs. <br /></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>School closures? If we had more young people, we would need more schools, not fewer.</li></ul>Unfortunately, those who recognize the importance of this issue generally focus a disproportionate amount of resources on immigration and that is wrong-headed.<br /><br />Don’t get me wrong. I love immigration. The better understanding of the world and more well-rounded cultural awareness that my children are gaining growing up in a multicultural school as compared to how I grew up is amazing. Our province is richer for sharing in the diverse cultures that immigrants bring to our communities.<br /><br />But immigration is hard. First, we do not control our own fate. We must rely on the federal government to allocate immigration slots to us and to process and authorize applications. Second, immigrants are hard to find. We need to sift through 8 billion people and find those with the right skills, demographics and interests. Third, once we get them here, there may be a lot of effort required in language training and credential recognition. Fourth, once they are integrated into the workforce we must convince them to stay here while there are larger cities with more opportunities and better access to their native language and culture.<br /><br />Immigration is among the hardest of ways to grow our workforce. Instead, we could:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Attract youth to return.</b> I come from a generation where the majority of my high school classmates no longer live in New Brunswick. That is probably true of most generations of New Brunswickers. The vast majority of those who have left would love to return. But they are living fulfilling lives with good jobs and busy families. There is no incentive for them to figure out how to find perhaps two jobs in the same city halfway across the country, sell and buy homes and uproot their children. But these people already know and love New Brunswick, they do not need to be convinced to come home. Finding them jobs and helping them with moving expenses would close the deal. We need to create a service like this to bring people home. <br /></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Create opportunities to retain youth.</b> We need to invest in a culture of training and apprenticeship. We need government policies and programs that are youth-friendly. Too often graduates can’t find jobs in their fields here because they lack two years of experience. That gap has to be closed through collaboration between government and the private sector. And we need to make sure that when those gaps are closed, this is a place where young people want to live. <br /></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Help people to (re-)enter the workforce.</b> Statistics Canada measures the labour force participation rate. This is the percentage of people aged 15 and older who are working or looking for work. In New Brunswick, the participation rate hovers around 62%, while the national average is 66% and in Alberta it is 72%. These don’t sound like huge differences, but if we raised our participation rate by 4 points to the national average that would add 25,000 workers to our economy without anyone having had to move here. How do we help those who have given up on finding or never tried to find a job get into the workforce? <br /></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Focus on interprovincial migration.</b> Many Canadians and other permanent residents of Canada don’t know about what New Brunswick has to offer. Think of this as easy immigration. We are searching in a pool of 37 million instead of 8 billion and they can move here tomorrow without any permits or applications. So much has been written about millennials and the generation coming behind them and their inability to afford homeownership or save for the future due to the double whammy of high student debt and high cost of living. New Brunswick needs young professionals. Toronto and Vancouver have young professionals living in basement apartments paying $2,000 per month in rent. Is there not a mutually-beneficial arrangement to be had here? Come to New Brunswick, solve our labour shortage, live in your dream home for half the cost of your rent and apply the rest to your student debt. <br /></li></ul>We must do all of these things, including immigration. But the focus of some on immigration as a priority above others is akin to climbing a ladder to get the apples from the top of the tree while ignoring the low-hanging fruit below.<br /><br />We have never been particularly good at marketing our province. We derisively refer to ourself as the “drive-thru province” because PEI, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have built so much more effective tourism brands. When I lived in Ontario, it was a common occurrence for people to be able to easily list three Atlantic Provinces; New Brunswick was always the one they forgot. We must do better. New Brunswick is a great province, that’s why I came back here to raise a family. We all know this. We need to do a better job of spreading the word.<br /><br />A smart population growth strategy continues the current focus on immigration. But it also invests as much or more effort in marketing New Brunswick to millennials and others across the country that would be far better positioned to achieve their dreams here than in costly cities like Toronto or Vancouver. It invests by leveling the playing field and giving a hand up to those who can’t break into the labour force such as people with disabilities and people trying to break the cycle of multigenerational poverty. It ensures that no young person has to leave to find their first job in their field. And it provides those ex-New Brunswickers who would love our province to come home and gives them an easy path to do so.<br /></div>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-12685649600007731882020-10-06T08:00:00.003-03:002020-10-06T08:00:03.503-03:00The art of the possible in local governance reformIn last week's cabinet shuffle, Premier Blaine Higgs named a "minister of local government and local governance reform." Daniel Allain enters the elected provincial political arena with high expectations. <br /><br />Policy wonks in this province have been fixated on local governance reform for over a decade. Many point to the 12-year-old Finn report as the panacea. <br /><br />The Finn report proposes a complete reimagination of our municipal structure with huge changes and a series of complex implementation periods. Some say simply implement Finn, but there is a simpler solution to municipal reform.<br /><br />This is a very emotional subject. It boils down to one's own identity. "Where are you from?" Many Miramichiers will answer that question with "Chatham" or "Newcastle" when those municipalities haven't existed since the last century. Frederictonians might answer with "Nashwaaksis" or "Barkers Point" when those municipalities haven't existed in 50 years. <br /><br />Many politicians have uttered words like "no forced amalgamations" to temper fears about loss of identity or loss of community. <br /><br />In Quebec in the early 2000s a number of forced amalgamations were so unpopular the controversy spilled over into the 2003 provincial election contributing in part to a change of government and a reversal of several of the amalgamations. <br /><br />Minister Allain must work hard to find meaningful reforms that can achieve broad public acceptance. The worst thing government could do is impose reforms that are so politically toxic that an opposing party might propose to reverse them, get elected on that platform, and do so. Such a failure would likely mean significant reform is shelved for another generation. <br /><br />In tackling local governance reforms, it is important to understand that the way people expect to be governed has changed. At one time, people generally elected a government and stuck to their knitting until the next election. Today, with an information-driven culture plugged-in instantaneously to networks of like-minded people to share it with, it is different. People expect ongoing and meaningful consultation. Government must secure buy-in from the people as they implement these reforms.<br /><br />I do not believe that <a href="https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/lg-gl/pdf/BuildingStrongerLocalGovernmentsAndRegions.pdf">the Finn Report</a> is the panacea that some suggest. It is 199-pages long, very complex and 12 years old. At its core, it proposes merging New Brunswick's 300+ local entities into 53 municipalities. This might perhaps be an ideal state, but it would cause so much controversy it would likely be a poison pill that would ruin any lasting reform. <br /><br />Many plebiscites have been held in the last decade to allow voters to decide whether to merge or form municipalities in their area. Most of these have been voted down by the people. How could government justify municipalization in a place like Lincoln, when just a few years ago 75% of residents voted against it?<br /><br />One of the recommendations of Finn that has been partially implemented is the creation of regional service commissions. Further implementation and refinement of this is the low-hanging fruit in reform. This can partially tackle two of the biggest problems that reform seeks to fix: lack of regional cooperation, and lack of governance in unincorporated areas. <br /><br />These commissions were created in 2012 and have jurisdiction over regional planning and solid waste. Finn recommended that they also control policing, emergency measures, and economic development. Their mandate should be expanded to cover these services and I would argue also fire, recreational infrastructure and local highways. The commissions should have full municipal authority over unincorporated areas within their region, rather than the provincial government.<br /><br />These commissions are currently unelected and have no direct control over their budgets. That would have to change. Commissioners should be elected from wards of relatively equal population, with care taken to avoid any one municipality holding a majority of seats on the commission. The division of property tax revenue collected on behalf of municipalities by the province should be allocated between regions and local municipalities on a formula that reflects their relative division of responsibilities.<br /><br />This model is similar to that which exists in Ontario where there are “tier-1” (regional) and “tier-2” (local) municipalities. As in Ontario, if all of the communities in the region wished to merge and have one level of government for all services, this should be an option available to them.<br /><br />This would accomplish the goals of full municipalization that many seek, without the emotional debate around merging municipalities and imposing new governments and new taxes on unincorporated communities.<br /><br />Something does have to be done about taxes however. Currently the provincial government maintains roads in unincorporated areas, from local highways to subdivisions. The cost of this is subsidized by taxpayers around the province as the local tax levy only pays a fraction of the cost of maintaining roads. This was formerly also the case with the cost of policing, but the full costs of rural policing were phased into property taxes over a four year period. The same thing should occur with the cost of roads, allowing regional governments to have the budget to maintain these roads either on their own, or by outsourcing the work to the provincial government at true cost, or the private sector.<br /><br />The final matter that has to be addressed is tax reform. This is a complex and broadly misunderstood issue. Two things in particular are misunderstood: the “double tax” on non-owner occupied properties, and the fact that the province keeps property tax revenue at all when in other provinces this is the exclusive domain of local governments.<br /><br />The reason why there is a provincial share of property tax is because in New Brunswick, the province delivers a lot of municipal services. In other provinces, housing, local courts and schools are funded and operated by local authorities. In New Brunswick, the provincial government funds and operates these services partially out of property tax revenue. As for why non-owner occupied properties pay “double” is in fact the opposite. The reality is owner-occupied properties are only paying half, creating the perception of a punitive tax on non-owner occupied properties. This is a policy from the 1970s, when the Hatfield government waived provincial property taxes on primary homes as a policy measure to encourage ownership.<br /><br />Whether or not the province should continue to retain some property tax revenue is a matter that should be discussed in broader conversation about the division of powers between provincial, regional and local governments. If the local governments want all of the tax revenue, they should also deliver all of the services. That invites a question of equality of services in all regions, something New Brunswick lacked prior to the 1960s and the reason why the current system of provincial administration of education and justice came into play.<br /><br />The reforms explored in this column are complex and would require strong leadership to succeed. They are far more likely to succeed, however, because they divorce the emotion of municipal amalgamation (forced or otherwise) from the conversation.<br /><br />The delay of municipal elections to May 2021 creates a great opportunity to allow for the election of regional councils in short order which would be a key first step to ensuring democratic engagement and legitimacy in the implementation of reforms.<br />nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-44120805345980880752020-09-28T12:12:00.005-03:002020-09-28T12:13:47.139-03:00Three health reforms our government should pursue<p dir="ltr" id="docs-internal-guid-fd912e80-7fff-f667-399a-79c59ece704a" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><i>This is the first in a potential series of opinion columns about public policy issues in New Brunswick.</i> <br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" id="docs-internal-guid-fd912e80-7fff-f667-399a-79c59ece704a" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"> </span></p><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial;">Premier Blaine Higgs has often said that we need to make do with what we have; maximize the benefit of existing assets rather than building something new. This is something with which I generally agree. <br /><br />It is very much true in our healthcare system, both as it relates to infrastructure, to human resources, and to points of access for specialized care. <br /><br />We have regional hospitals that are overtaxed and in need of more space. In Fredericton, the Chalmers Hospital is currently undergoing an expansion at a cost of over $200 million. They were out of room, but was there a way to make do with what we have rather than build new?<br /><br />We have a beautiful highway infrastructure in our province and thanks to that, the Upper River Valley Hospital is just 50 minutes away from the Chalmers. It is the newest hospital in New Brunswick but an entire wing is empty. Many day surgeries in the Fredericton region are done at the Oromocto hospital 20 minutes away. If a similar arrangement had been made upriver, hundreds of millions of dollars could have been saved.<br /><br />This kind of thinking can and should be made around the province. We often hear talk that politicians should make the "tough decision" and close rural hospitals. That is not tough; it is easy, at least in terms of creative and strategic thinking. But if you do that, then what happens? How do you deal with already congested regional hospitals that will face more pressure?<br /><br />The real tough decision is taking the time to figure out how to reallocate services within our existing infrastructure so that we have a mix of optimally used buildings instead of some overcrowded and some underused. <br /><br />That will mean some services have to leave some regional hospitals, something that is antithetical to the mandarins in the healthcare system and that's the really tough political decision to make. This won't solve all of our health infrastructure needs, but it will solve most of them at a small fraction of the cost of the status quo where we drive more and more into regional centres in the cities.<br /><br />In addition to moving services from crowded regional hospitals to rural hospitals with excess capacity, we should also be exploring publicly-funded delivery of services in privately-owned infrastructure. There has been a lot of attention paid to public funding for abortions at Clinic 554 and potentially similar clinics. This would make sense not just from an access and safety perspective but also fiscally responsible management of infrastructure. The same applies to many other services, for example blood work. In Ontario, when you need blood work you don't wait for weeks for a letter to come in the mail advising you that weeks still in the future you can go and queue up for an hour to have blood drawn at a busy regional hospital. Instead, you can walk into any private blood clinic at your convenience without an appointment and be in and out in under 10 minutes at no charge to you, public health care pays the clinic the same way they pay your family doctor. <br /><br />This also speaks to the need for better access to primary care. Wait times for family doctors is the most acute example of this. Closing access points in rural areas makes no sense. We need more access to primary care, not less. How these facilities are used and re-orienting them to be more focused on primary care does make sense but this must be done gradually in a way that allows for community buy-in and for the rest of the system to adjust to the change. When a community is used to using an emergency room for primary care because proper access doesn't exist, you can't simply close the emergency room. This is not just an issue in rural New Brunswick; many Frederictonians use the Oromocto emergency room for primary care, many Saint Johners use St. Joseph’s urgent care centre, and many Monctonians use walk-in clinics. None of these are proper access points for primary care as there are no patient records, no continuity of care and no follow ups. However, we must provide proper access to primary care first, then ensure that those using the emergency room or other stop gaps for primary care are being transitioned and being well served, and only then have a conversation about whether or not corresponding services reductions make sense. <br /><br />More broadly on primary care, the main challenge is human resources. Our system is built on the notion that a family doctor must be the entry point to health care. This is expensive and creates unnecessarily long wait-times. Other provinces have more fully integrated nurse practitioners to their primary care system. There is also a lot of talk about increased roles for other professionals like pharmacists and optometrists. For the price of one family doctor, we could hire four nurse practitioners and make four times the dent in the waitlist. If routine prescriptions are being filled by pharmacists, that frees up countless appointments for doctors and nurses to see patients who need to see them.<br /><br />Every election, the New Brunswick Medical Society puts out a call for parties to commit to hire more doctors. Doctors are an important part of our health system but they can no longer be the be-all-and-end-all; due to scarcity of doctors as well as their relatively high cost. To allow a nurse practitioner to take a family practice, or a pharmacist to bill Medicare will cost a little bit more than doing nothing. But it will dramatically improve access, reduce wait times and be far, far less expensive than solving the problem with more doctors. <br /><br />The above are all meaningful solutions to primary care challenges in our system. But what about specialists?<br /><br />The crown jewel of New Brunswick's health care system is the centre of excellence in Saint John called the New Brunswick Heart Centre. All serious cardiac cases are sent there and that builds the scale to attract world-class surgeons, afford world-class technology, and ensure those surgeons remain world-class by working at a volume to maintain and grow their skills. <br /><br />We need to do this with more specialized medical services. This invites risk as it requires telling some specialists they may have to move from their current hospital to another that will host the centre of excellence in their practice. Some argue doctors may leave the province rather than move a 100 kilometers within the province. That is a risk and pains must be taken to mitigate that risk. But the alternative is a more expensive system that requires more infrastructure and delivers inferior results. Imagine a province that has an oncology centre as world-class as the heart centre. The choice should be obvious. <br /><br />Taken together, a more rational use of our health infrastructure, a more inclusive and expansive use of existing health care professionals, and building and leveraging scale in specialized care could transform our healthcare system. It would lower wait times, lower capital costs and increase quality of care. It will be hard and involve knocking down silos and fiefdoms but this is the kind of health reform our province needs.<br /></span></span><br />nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-16134186109210550412020-09-14T08:00:00.001-03:002020-09-14T08:00:04.939-03:00Final 2020 NB election thoughts and predictions<p>I've written <a href="https://nbpolitico.blogspot.com/2020/09/a-brief-look-at-ridings.html">two</a> <a href="https://nbpolitico.blogspot.com/2020/09/brief-look-at-ridings-part-deux.html">previous</a> posts on this election and the below may be an easier read if you've read them. <br /></p><p>I often like to take a look at the upside potential for the parties, so I will begin there. <br /></p><p><b>What is the Tory path to victory?</b><br /><br />The Tories start the election with 20 seats, having won 22 in the last election. A majority path should begin by reclaiming St. Croix; it seems very unlikely that they would regain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou. So their base is 21. <br /><br />For a majority, they require four other seats and they have a few options. The Liberal seats of Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour, Moncton South and Moncton East would all appear to be prime pick up opportunities, as would the Alliance seat of Fredericton-York.<br /><br />For additional cushion, the PCs could conceivably also take the Liberal seats of Carleton-Victoria and Miramichi Bay-Neguac and the Alliance seat of Fredericton-Grand Lake, though these seem unlikely.<br /><br />That gives them an upward universe of 29, and they need only win 4 of 5 truly competitive seats or 4 of 8 of the above to win a majority.<br /><br />I do not foresee any PC incumbents losing, though Carleton-York, held by a retiring PC incumbent, could be threatened by the PA.<br /><br /><b>What is the Liberal path to victory?</b><br /><br />The Liberals start the election with 20 seats, down from 21 at the last election, but are almost certain to regain Shediac Bay-Dieppe and pick up Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou. They therefore start with a base of 22 seats.<br /><br />Their pickup opportunities begin with the Alliance seat of Miramichi being contested by their leader. Liberals would also heavily target the Green seats of Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North. If they were to win all of these, that would give them 25 seats and a majority government.<br /><br />However, they are playing defence in at least 3 seats that they are unlikely to win: Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour and Moncton South. And also are at risk in Moncton East.<br /><br />The Liberals must run the table with these to win a government of their own. Conceivably if they failed to win either of the Green seats and one other they would have 25 seats in combination with the Greens, however I find it highly unlikely that the Greens would back a tenuous Liberal government in the current circumstances.<br /><br />Stretch targets for the Liberals include Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins, where they believe the hospital issue could carry the day for them; Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, where they believe they could win on a vote split; and Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton, where they nearly won last time, have a strong candidate and have invested heavy resources. I do not think any of these are likely unless there is a major polling error.<br /><br /><b>What is the best case scenario for the Greens?</b><br /><br />The Greens are favoured to hold all 3 of their current seats in my view. Their first tier of expansion targets are Fredericton North and Restigouche West. They could also conceivably win in Fredericton-York on a vote split on the right between the PCs and the PA. That puts them on six seats; others have pondered potential other Green gains but I do not see them.<br /><br /><b>What is the best case scenario for the Alliance?</b><br /><br />At least two and perhaps all three of the PA seats are at risk. Holding them would be considered a good night. I believe they have a very strong shot in Carleton-York and in fact may have a better shot here than in their current seats of Fredericton-York and Miramichi. They came within 34 votes of winning Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin last time so that has to be on their radar. I have written before about their potential opportunity in St. Croix. That puts them on 6 seats as well for a high water mark.<br /><br /><b>Polling</b><br /><br />Polling has been all over the map. Not just at the top line but in the cross-tabs. Two things that have stood out to me fairly consistently: significant PC gains in Moncton and a high rate of undecideds.<br /><br />If the PCs are picking up one or two seats in Moncton, this almost certainly eliminates any path to a majority for the Liberals.<br /><br />If undecideds are still high on election eve, that invites a question about the mood of the remaining electorate. A record number of voters voted in advance. There are plenty of compelling reasons to vote for the government due to both their perceived success in managing the pandemic, and the risk and uncertainty of changing a government in a pandemic. So what are the undecideds thinking? I think that they are predisposed to break against the government and that could result in a "surprise" result.<br /><br />In 2018, I believe undecideds broke for the Greens and PA because they just couldn't get behind the main parties and I think that that is going to happen again this year.<br /><br /><b>Final Prediction</b><br /><br />PCs hold 19 of their current 20 seats and gain Moncton East (Lib), Moncton South (Lib) and Saint John Harbour (Lib) for a total of 22.<br /><br />Liberals hold 16 of their current 20 seats and gain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (Ind former PC) and Shediac Bay-Dieppe (vacant former Lib) for a total of 18.<br /><br />Greens hold their 3 current seats and gain Fredericton North (Lib) and Fredericton-York (PA) for a total of 5.<br /><br />The People's Alliance holds 2 of their current three seats and gains St. Croix (vacant former PC) and Carleton-York (PC) for a total of 4.</p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-23340723144037817122020-09-11T08:00:00.002-03:002020-09-11T09:59:12.019-03:00Brief look at the ridings, part deux<p>Last week, <a href="https://nbpolitico.blogspot.com/2020/09/a-brief-look-at-ridings.html">I took a look at the ridings</a> and found 19 to be competitive. I now see 6 of those 19 still in play, with one additional one moving into play due to a change of circumstances.<br /></p><b>Safe PC Seats (13)</b><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Riverview</li><li>Albert</li><li>Gagetown-Petitcodiac</li><li>Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins</li><li>Hampton</li><li>Quispamsis</li><li>Rothesay</li><li>Portland-Simonds</li><li>Kings Centre</li><li>Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West</li><li><strike>St. Croix</strike> (moved to competitive)<strike><br /></strike></li><li>New Maryland-Sunbury</li><li>Fredericton West-Hanwell</li><li>Carleton</li></ul><p><b>Safe Liberal Seats (14)</b></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Campbellton-Dalhousie</li><li>Restigouche-Chaleur</li><li>Bathurst West-Beresford</li><li>Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore</li><li>Caraquet</li><li>Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)</li><li>Tracadie-Sheila</li><li>Kent South</li><li>Shediac Bay-Dieppe</li><li>Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele</li><li>Dieppe</li><li>Moncton Centre</li><li>Edmundston-Madawaska Centre</li><li>Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston</li></ul><p><b>Safe PA Seats (1)</b></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Fredericton-Grand Lake</li></ul><p><b>Safe Green Seats (1)</b></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Fredericton South</li></ul><p><b>Likely PC Seats (8) - moved from competitive </b></p><p></p><p></p><p>Southwest
Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - With polls consistently showing PCs slightly or significantly above their 2018 result and Stewart's increased profile from having been in cabinet he is likely to be re-elected.<br /></p><p>Moncton South
(Lib vs PC) - Greg Turner is well known and an effective campaigner. With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, he is likely to win.<br /></p><p>Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, it is unlikely they would lose this seat.<br /></p><p>Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.</p><p>Saint
John East (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a pick up opportunity for the Liberals.<br /></p><p>Saint John
Harbour (Lib vs PC) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion
polling while Liberal support is down; it seems unlikely the Liberals will be able to hold this seat which they won by only 10 votes last time.<br /></p><p>Saint John
Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion
polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a
pick up opportunity for the Liberals.</p><p>Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
(PC vs Lib) - With Liberal support consistently low in the Fredericton area according to opinion polls, gaining this seat seems unlikely despite a star candidate and significant effort on the ground.<br /></p><p><b><b>Likely Liberal Seats (3) - moved from competitive</b></b></p><p>Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - Lisa Harris won 42% of the vote here in 2018 and is likely to receive a similar number this time; it does not seem there will be enough coalescing of PC and PA support for either party to exceed that number.<br /></p><p>Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) -
The rematch between Andy Harvey and Margaret Johnson is likely to be won again in Harvey's favour. Voters in the riding's most populist community of Perth-Andover (also the most likely community to be a swing vote) are unlikely to trust a Carleton County Tory with the fate of their hospital after her party nearly closed it six months ago.<br /></p><p>Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - The hospital issue already had this riding leaning heavily Liberal; the recent dropping of the PC candidate by his party seals the deal.<br /></p><p><b><b><b>Likely Green Seats (2) - moved from competitive</b></b></b></p><p>Kent North
(Grn vs Lib) - With Greens consistently polling above their 2018 numbers, it is hard to imagine them losing seats.<br /></p><p>Memramcook-Tantramar
(Grn vs Lib) - Ibid.</p><p><b><b> </b></b></p><p><b>Battlegrounds (7)</b></p><p>Restigouche
West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens
after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an
independent in 2014. This is a realistic pickup opportunities
for the Greens. Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential
election night surprise.</p><p></p><p>Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting
race. Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill
Fraser by a massive margin in 2018. Liberals I talk to are very confident that they will pick this seat up.<br /></p><p>Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs
have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and
represents municipal voters in another riding. This is the best pickup
opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't
hold. That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and
Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.</p><p>St. Croix (PC vs PA) - I had originally assigned this seat as safe PC, but Charlotte County sources tell me that the Liberal dropping of their candidate there has given PA candidate Rod Cumberland a boost as those worried about the local hospital shift their support to him. However, even if true, how many of those voters had already cast ballots before the ejection? Interesting race to watch.<br /></p><p>Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) -
Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green. Speaking of
Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall
employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in
Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the
Greens' main target for pick up. Can they pull it off, or will they
split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman
win a third term?</p><p>Fredericton-York (PA vs PC vs Grn) - PCs very much
want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before
falling to team purple in 2018. Sources in the riding tell me that Green candidate Melissa Fraser is also in contention here, has been campaigning hard and if signs count for anything my recent drive through the riding certainly suggests she is in the hunt. In 2014, the results of this riding were PC35-Lib29-NDP21-Grn7-PA5 while in 2018 they were PA34-PC31-Lib18-Grn15-NDP1. There are some huge shifts there, so this race could be very unpredictable.<br /></p><p>Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - PA lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is
reoffering. In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl
Urquhart of the PCs has retired.</p><p><i>Of these 7, I currently would guess PC 4, Lib 2, PA 1.</i></p><p><strike><b>Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)</b></strike></p><p><b><b>Prediction as of September 11: PC 25 (21-26), Lib 19 (17-21), Grn 3 (3-6), PA 2 (1-5).</b> <br /></b></p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-10148073958010652842020-09-04T12:30:00.002-03:002020-09-04T12:30:21.643-03:00A brief look at the ridings<p>By my estimation, about 19 ridings are competitive in this election, with the remaining 30 facing fairly predictable outcomes. Below, I lay out the state of the race as I see it with commentary on the 19 closer ridings.</p><p><b>Likely PC Seats (14)</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Riverview</li><li>Albert</li><li>Gagetown-Petitcodiac</li><li>Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins</li><li>Hampton</li><li>Quispamsis</li><li>Rothesay</li><li>Portland-Simonds</li><li>Kings Centre</li><li>Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West</li><li>St. Croix</li><li>New Maryland-Sunbury</li><li>Fredericton West-Hanwell</li><li>Carleton</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Likely Liberal Seats (14)</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Campbellton-Dalhousie</li><li>Restigouche-Chaleur</li><li>Bathurst West-Beresford</li><li>Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore</li><li>Caraquet</li><li>Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)</li><li>Tracadie-Sheila</li><li>Kent South</li><li>Shediac Bay-Dieppe</li><li>Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele</li><li>Dieppe</li><li>Moncton Centre</li><li>Edmundston-Madawaska Centre</li><li>Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Likely PA Seats (1)</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Fredericton-Grand Lake</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Likely Green Seats (1)</b></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Fredericton South</li></ul><p></p><p><b>Battlegrounds (19)</b></p><p>Restigouche West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an independent in 2014. This is one of two realistic pickup opportunites for the Greens. Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential election night surprise.</p><p>Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - PA finished second here in 2018. Edge to the Liberals but if the the right-of-centre vote collases behind one of the PA or PC this could be a real race. Former PC cabinet minister Robert Trevors is running for the PCs.</p><p>Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting race. Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill Fraser by a massive margin in 2018. Kevin Vickers needs to win this seat if he has a path to a government. The result of this riding could be a proxy for whether or not the Liberals win the night.</p><p>Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - Very close PC/PA race last time with the same candidates again. Can PA improve on its results and win? Can Liberals sneak up the middle? Or will Jake Stewart, the first PC ever re-elected in this riding, win a fourth term?</p><p>Kent North (Grn vs Lib) - Bertrand LeBlanc is looking to make a comeback for the Liberals after retiring in 2018 and his successor under the red banner being handily defeated by Kevin Arseneau of the Greens. Liberals very much want to win this seat back, if Arseneau is re-elected he may well be a fixture of New Brunswick politics for a generation.</p><p>Memramcook-Tantramar (Grn vs Lib) - Megan Mitton won by a narrow 11-vote margin. Former Liberal MLA Bernard LeBlanc's hand-picked successor Maxime Bourgeois wants to win it back. Will Mitton face the same fate as Bob Hall, or will she be re-elected? How does the pandemic impact on students at Mt. A. affect her path to victory?</p><p>Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and represents municipal voters in another riding. This is the best pickup opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't hold. That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.</p><p>Moncton South (Lib vs PC) - With Cathy Rogers' retirement and popular deputy mayor Greg Turner running for the Tories, this is possibly the most likely PC pick up in the province.</p><p>Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - Liberals came within about 200 votes of winning this seat in both 2014 and 2018, is the third time the charm?</p><p>Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.</p><p>Saint John East (PC vs Lib) - Liberals won this seat, briefly, in 2014 before losing it in a by-election. Phil Comeau ran in that election for the NDP and did will and now seeks to win as a Liberal. Can he knock off PC cabinet minister and lone "francophone" Glen Savoie?</p><p>Saint John Harbour (Lib vs PC) - In the aggregate from 2010 through 2018, this is the closest riding in the province having been a nail biter each of those 3 election cycles. Will it be so again? </p><p>Saint John Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - Minister responsible for nursing homes vs. head of nursing home workers union. Popcorn please.</p><p>Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton (PC vs Lib) - One of the closest ridings in 2018, this seat is critical to a Liberal path to government. If they don't win here, it is not a good night for them.</p><p>Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) - Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green. Speaking of Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the Greens' main target for pick up. Can they pull it off, or will they split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman win a third term?</p><p>Fredericton-York (PA vs PC) - PCs very much want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before falling to team purple in 2018.</p><p>Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - If the PA are going to pick up a new seat, this is probably their best shot. They lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is reoffering. In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl Urquhart of the PCs has retired.</p><p>Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) - This has been one of the closest races in each of the last two elections and is the last remaining Liberal seat that is rural and predominately anglophone. Can Andy Harvrey win a third term in a rematch against the PC's Margaret Johnson?</p><p>Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - This is the PCs best shot at winning a francophone seat and they lost by only 400 votes last time. The aborted plan to close the local hospital may put it out of reach for them however.</p><p><i>Of these 19, I currently would project 10 PC, 6 Liberal, 2 Green, 1 PA.</i></p><p><b>Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)</b></p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-79522142096317396232020-08-28T11:13:00.007-03:002020-08-28T14:44:21.370-03:00Should we police criminals or police victims?<p><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">Politics and policy-making can yield strange bedfellows. During the Strategic Program Review from 2015-16, a plan was sought to balance the budget. Every program of government was studied, as were many opportunities to increase revenues. In the end, <a href="https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2016.02.0068.html">a plan was put forward through a mixture of about 50/50 of revenue increases and expenditure reductions</a> to put the province on track for a balanced budget. It worked and it worked better than expected, thanks to strong economic growth the<a href="https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2018.08.1190.html"> third and fourth budget years of the Liberal government of the day ended in surplus despite expectations</a>. But I digress. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">One of the revenue measures was an increase to tobacco taxes. For governments, these taxes serve two goods: they raise revenues and they discourage an unhealthy habit that costs the healthcare system dearly. Here come the strange bedfellows. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Big tobacco doesn't like higher tobacco taxes, presumably because it decreases sales. There is however an area for alignment: higher tobacco taxes can lead to increased sale of illegal contraband, something that h</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">its revenues steams of </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">both government </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">and</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> big tobacco companies. </span></span></span></span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">So the tobacco lobby proposed to the government that if they were going to raise tobacco taxes, they should also invest in combating the import and sale of contraband. Public servants studied the proposal and said it was a good one. The <a href="https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2015.11.1095.html">contraband enforcement unit was born</a> and they were a big success. They weren't chasing people with a carton of illegal smokes, they were chasing organized criminals who were bringing it in by the truckload and shutting them down. And in the process they were levying fines and mitigating the decrease to tobacco tax revenue. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">The public service is wonderful organization with many hardworking people doing great work in thankless jobs. Structurally, however, it is far from a perfect entity. One of its greatest failings is "silo" thinking. Each department operates like an independent entity; that is how their budgets are allocated and how deputy ministers' performance is measured. The political arm of government is also imperfect; directives can be given with good intent that are ill-considered. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">Of note: all government revenue goes to a central pot of money called the consolidated revenue fund. Departments do not see the revenue they raise and are their performance is not measured against revenue. In part this is because it is impractical to do so; most revenue is collected by the federal government on the province’s behalf and paid in bulk by a formula. It is not siloed, but as a result it is often overlooked in siloed decision-making.</span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">One of the worst and most common ill-considered directives from politicians are across-the-board budget cuts. These have been a hallmark in New Brunswick under PC governments. Operating from the notion that there is lots of waste and fat to be found everywhere, the edict goes out at budget time that X% must be cut. And departments are measured on whether or not they hit that target. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">I</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> do not know what occurred </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">here </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">but I've been around government long enough to make a good guess: </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">i</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">n the 2019 budget process, departments were given a cut target. </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Every department must cut the same percentage from its budget irrespective of the import of its work, previous cuts it has faced, how much of its funding is flow-through from the federal government, how much of its work it is required to do by law, etc. </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">The department of public safety would look at a program like the contraband enforcement unit and see it as "nice to have" but much easier to cut than building inspectors or highway safety officers. Because they never see the money it brings in and are not graded for that revenue </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">the contraband enforcement unit was of no</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> "benefit" to them, </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">at least in the way that the current government measures results: only numbers count, societal benefit does not</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">. The fact that overall the government makes money off of this unit is not something that is relevant to </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">a departmental</span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;"> silo. They <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5288827/n-b-government-cuts-defense-unit/">offer the unit up and it is cut</a>. </span></span></span></span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">So is there more illegal tobacco in New Brunswick now? Probably. Is there less revenue related to tobacco taxes and fines from tobacco enforcement? Definitely. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">But that isn't even the whole measure. Organized crime creates many societal problems. One of the best public policy arguments for cannabis legalization was to reduce a revenue stream for these cruel criminals. If we dry up all of their sources of revenue they will shrink or hopefully die. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">Fast forward to this week. Our premier promises that <a href="https://www.pcnb.ca/en/news/c6r8gtf4fgj2qsilnu9f8y7wpc8c89">if re-elected he will invest more than he cut from fighting these criminals in new policing to target drug users</a>. </span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span face="" style="color: #222222; font-size: 12pt;">Drug users are mostly victims. Victims of a system that provides insufficient mental health supports, victims of a system that fails to break the cycle of poverty, likely victims of many other things. The solution to their problem is not enforcement. And if you fine them, the likelihood they will have the ability to pay is low so instead they will serve time, costing taxpayers even more in the short-term, and more still in the long-term as incarceration creates even more problems for the individual that may lead to yet more drug use. Drug use may be increasing, but it is a symptom of other societal problems; we need to focus on curing the disease, not the sneeze. Forward-looking cross-party consensus supported by law enforcement in British Columbia has figured this out. We should too.</span></p><p style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 16px; margin-bottom: 0cm; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">Setting aside that this program made money, how </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">is that we </span></span></span></span><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span face=""><span style="font-size: 12pt;">can't afford $900,000 per year to fight criminals when we can suddenly afford twice that much to fight victims?</span></span></span></span></p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-2101236210785321502020-08-23T11:44:00.003-03:002020-08-23T13:52:45.868-03:002020 NB Voting Guide<p><b>Can You Vote?</b></p><p></p><p>All Canadian citizens who have lived in New Brunswick for 40 days before election day (i.e. since August 5th) and will be 18 years old by election day are eligible to vote. Period, full stop. </p><p>If you are on the voters list, you should have received a notice in the mail by now in a big yellow envelope. If you received this and your name was correctly listed, you will receive a voter information card in the mail. If you received this and your name was missing or you didn't receive this, you probably aren't on the voters list. This is not a big deal and can be fixed relatively easily. </p><p>If you plan to go vote in person, you can get added to the list when you arrive to vote. You <a href="https://www.electionsnb.ca/content/enb/en/voters/voter-id-requirements.html">need to bring either</a> some ID or official mail with your current address, or a friend that is on the voters list and who votes at the same polling place as you and they can vouch for you and get you added to the list. </p><p>If you want to vote by mail, you need to be on the voters list before they will send you a ballot and you should call 1-888-858-8683 to get on the list. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>When To Vote?</b></p><p>While you can vote now, exercise caution when voting too early. You will have to write in the name of your candidate on the ballot and most candidates are not yet officially registered. If you vote for someone who ends up not being an official candidate your vote will be spoiled (i.e. it won't count) and you can't take it back and change it. Also if you write in the name of your candidate and it differs from how their name appears on the ballot, your vote could also be spoiled. Before writing in a name on a ballot, I would strongly recommend you<a href="https://www1.gnb.ca/elections/en/prov20sep14/provcandidatelist-e.asp?ELECTIONID=86"> check the list of official candidates</a>, wait until your candidate of choice is listed, and make sure you write their name in exactly as it is listed on the registry. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>Vote By Mail</b></p><p>You need to <a href="https://electionsnb.ca/content/dam/enb/pdf/forms/P%2006%20101%20Application%20for%20SB%20-%20Demande%20de%20BVS%20(2013-08-16).pdf">fill out and sign a form</a>. The signature is used to verify your identity when you vote. So that means you need access to a printer and scanner, or you need to go to the returning office. If you are going to go to the returning office anyway, you may as well just vote while you're there (see below).<br /></p><p>After you apply, Elections New Brunswick will send you a vote-by-mail package that you need to ensure is returned to your returning office by the time the polls close: 8 pm on September 14th. It doesn't matter if it is posted by then, it is when it arrives that counts. This freaks me out: mail gets lost, can be unpredictably slow, etc. So exercise caution and in spite of my advice above, mail your ballot as early as you can. The sweet spot is probably the afternoon of August 28th, if you have received your ballot kit by then, as the final list of candidates will be published shortly after 2 pm on August 28th. </p><p>It is also important to know that you must vote for your candidate by name; writing in their political party alone will spoil your ballot. Adding the name of the party in addition to the name of the candidate should be fine, but may spoil your ballot at the discretion of the returning officer. Please just write the name exactly as it appears on the registry of candidates, this is the best way to ensure your vote counts. </p><p>You might be wondering about the secrecy of your ballot due to the signature verification process. You are mostly safe there. You will fill your ballot and put it in an unmarked envelope. You put that first envelope into a second envelope which you sign. The returning office will verify that your signature matches and then discard the second (outer) envelope. Your anonymous inner envelope will then be placed with other such envelopes and counted later. So unless you are the only person who votes by mail in your riding, the secrecy of your vote should be maintained. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>Vote at the Returning Office</b></p><p>You can vote at <a href="https://www1.gnb.ca/elections/en/prov20sep14/provrolist-e.asp?ELECTIONID=84">any returning office</a> any time they are open which is 9 am to 7 pm Monday through Friday and 10 am to 5 pm on Saturday. (They are not open on Sunday because that's the Lord's day, as you know.)</p><p>It is important to note that you can vote at any returning office and the nearest returning office to your home or work may be in another riding. For instance, if you live in a geographically large riding like Carleton-York, the returning office is in the southwest corner of the riding in Harvey and it may be easier for you to go to a returning office in Woodstock or Fredericton. The riding of Fredericton-Grand Lake has its returning office in Minto, while many of the riding's residents live and work in Fredericton--they can go vote in a returning office in another Fredericton riding. </p><p>If you vote in a returning office before ballots are printed or any time at a returning office other than your home riding, you will have to write in the name of your candidate and the same advice as above on mail-in ballots applies: ensure your candidate of choice is an official candidate and that you know the correct spelling and form of their name before you vote. </p><p>If you vote in your own returning office after ballots are printed (probably after approximately September 1st), you will mark the same ballot you would on election day. </p><p><br /></p><p><b>Advanced Polls</b></p><p>Advanced polling stations will be open from 10 am to 8 pm on Saturday, September 5th and Tuesday, September 8th. (For those of you used to the normal rhythm, this may sound odd. In provincial elections, they are normally open on Saturday and Monday the week before election day. However, because that Monday is Labour day, it is bumped to Tuesday.)</p><p>Your advanced polling location will be listed on your voter information card which you should receive in the mail if you are on the voters list. If you didn't receive a card, you can <a href="https://www1.gnb.ca/Elections/en/provstreetkey/provskinformation-e.asp">look up your voting location online</a> (the polling locations might not be available yet; as of this writing on August 23 mine were not). </p><p><br /></p><p><b>Ordinary Polls</b></p><p>You can also vote the old fashioned way on election day. Polling stations will be open from 10 am to 8 pm. Your polling location will be listed on your voter information card which you should receive in the mail if you are on the voters list. If you didn't receive a card, you can <a href="https://www1.gnb.ca/Elections/en/provstreetkey/provskinformation-e.asp">look up your voting location online</a> (the polling locations might not be available yet; as of this writing on August 23 mine were not). </p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-60300157153148327322020-02-21T20:30:00.001-04:002020-02-21T20:30:37.461-04:00Nevada caucusJust as in Iowa, Nevada has a rule of 15% viability in a particular voting location for a candidate to get any delegates from that location. Polls show all of the non-Sanders candidates near or below 15, meaning they will surely miss viability in some significant number of precincts.<br />
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Nevada is clearly a race for second.<br />
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Biden has managed to maintain his lead in all post-Iowa/New Hampshire polls of South Carolina, which votes just 7 days after Nevada and just 3 days before Super Tuesday. Can Biden survive another loss and win in South Carolina? And if he does, will it be too little, too late?<br />
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Klobuchar seems to have not taken off in Nevada or South Carolina and may place sixth in both states. She will go on to perhaps win her home state of Minnesota on Super Tuesday on a day when Sanders could conceivably sweep the rest; does she stay for that possibility?<br />
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If Biden finishes second, after finishing fourth and fifth in previous outings, does that become the story and given him momentum heading into a win in South Carolina and thereafter into Super Tuesday?<br />
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If Warren finishes second, is her campaign reborn?<br />
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If Buttigieg finishes second, does the narrative get reset back to the possible Bernie-Pete two-way showdown that was being discussed out of Iowa?<br />
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If Steyer finishes second, could he parlay that into a win or second in South Carolina and a viable player on Super Tuesday?<br />
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Stay tuned!nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-55780720504453757592020-02-11T16:17:00.000-04:002020-02-11T16:17:04.170-04:00New Hampshire primary<div style="-qt-block-indent: 0; -qt-user-state: 0; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; text-indent: 0px;">
The chaos in Iowa ended up being the story coming out of Iowa, where otherwise there might have been three stories:</div>
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- Biden's hard fall</div>
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- Buttigieg's come-from-behind victory</div>
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- Klobuchar's surge to the second-tier alongside "frontrunners" Warren and Biden</div>
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New Hampshire voters who are more tuned in than ordinary voters may have read this in to the equation even though this was not a major focus of media coverage. This, coupled with a strong performance in Friday's debate, seem to be leading to a last minute surge for Klobuchar.</div>
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Sanders' support is locked in and loyal. He will perform in or around 30% no matter what happens. The big question for me tonight is: is Klobuchar's surge real and at whose expense does it come from, Buttigieg, Warren or Biden or some combination of two or three of them?</div>
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The two polls I am following most closely are the nightly tracking polls by Suffolk and Emerson because the number, which is inevitably old, is less important than the trend line that you can see.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyUTdYGtaeADD-z007S1-k82zPA073Y1CDg3sl1XEGbATd9SK69BKG8HvsUfzmpv0_sxayJGIxzabMOB34kbcF_Y8sx0oAQVj31g2AirN-JPC0X-YlR75_8DPT5bXrgvTp67RP/s1600/suffolk.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="751" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyUTdYGtaeADD-z007S1-k82zPA073Y1CDg3sl1XEGbATd9SK69BKG8HvsUfzmpv0_sxayJGIxzabMOB34kbcF_Y8sx0oAQVj31g2AirN-JPC0X-YlR75_8DPT5bXrgvTp67RP/s320/suffolk.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Sanders is flat.</div>
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Buttigieg rose and has peaked or is falling.</div>
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Warren is flat.</div>
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Biden has fallen and bottomed out in the neighbourhood of Warren.</div>
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Klobuchar is enjoying a late surge.</div>
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This all makes intuitive sense. Everyone has turned their fire on Buttigieg and his support was softest. In the last Emerson poll, they asked people how sure they were of their vote and 85% of Sanders voters, 68% of Warren voters, 66% of Klobuchar voters and 59% of Buttigieg voters were sure.</div>
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So what are the possible outcomes and what do they mean?</div>
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<b>Sanders</b></div>
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He is almost certain to win, and probably won't get much of a bump for doing so. He seems to have locked in a core of support with little room to grow or shrink. However, if he were to lose, this would be a shock and would lead to a series of stories about the establishment striking back against him, etc. Whether or not that would have any impact on his campaign remains to be seen.</div>
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<b>Buttigieg</b></div>
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He sort of benefited from beating expectations in Iowa (this was muted by the chaos and delays). Now he may suffer from expectations; he is now expected to finish second with Sanders clearly in first and the others battling for third. If he slips into third, the story may be that he was a flash in the plan that may not be able to stand close scrutiny of his record or lack thereof. If he finishes second, it is steady as she goes. If he were to some how pull of another upset, this would make him the clear frontrunner for the nomination.</div>
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<b>Klobuchar</b></div>
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As I wrote in <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.com/2020/02/iowa-caucus.html">my Iowa post</a>, her better-than-expected finish in Iowa is helpful to her, but she still lacks the money and organization to fully capitalize on it. If she comes third in New Hampshire, she is the story and if she comes second she is a huge story. Nevada is next and is a caucus state which means the ground game really matters; can she build on momentum to win a low turnout, time-intense caucus process or does she move on to South Carolina where Biden once dominated but is likely slipping leaving votes on the table? She probably needs a win or at least two second places to get the cash to mount an air war on Super Tuesday.</div>
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<b>Biden</b></div>
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Does he finish fourth or fifth? Both are a disaster, though now what is expected. He probably limps on to South Carolina, perhaps skipping Nevada. If he finishes third, which would have been considered fatal weeks ago, he may be on the road to recovery. Seems highly unlikely he finishes second unless there is a four-way muddled-up-tie in the low teens and he gets lucky by a fraction of a percentage point.</div>
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<b>Warren</b></div>
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In my view, there is no room for both Warren and Sanders in the race. I had expected her to seize the left, but instead she has run as a quasi-moderate which doesn't seem to have helped her in the centre but has made it even more difficult for her to compete for the Bernie true believers. The outcome possibilities for Warren are similar to Biden, but unlike Biden, she doesn't have a beach head coming up in South Carolina, so her chances for rebirth are even less likely than Uncle Joe.</div>
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p, li { white-space: pre-wrap; }</style>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-17470867256631125852020-02-03T19:16:00.003-04:002020-02-03T19:22:25.687-04:00Iowa caucusTonight marks the beginning of voting in the Democratic nomination process to choose the candidate who will face off against Donald Trump this fall.<br />
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This race has been very tightly contested with various candidates leading in the polls over the past year. The excitement and confusion has not yielded in the days leading into the vote.<br />
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Ann Selzer, who has run the definitive poll in Iowa for decades, abruptly <a href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/concern-raised-by-buttigieg-cancels-selzer-poll-in-iowa.html">cancelled the release</a> of her completed poll due to irregularities in data collection. The absence of this gold standard makes predicting the winner of tonight's caucus all the more difficult.<br />
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Also, the processes used in the Iowa Democratic caucus are unique, and some new features are being used for the first time ever today. The caucus model, which is used by a minority of states, is comparable to the process used in Canada to select candidates and previously to select leaders. A primary is a state-run process, where civil servants conduct the election in a non-partisan fashion to select party nominees; that is completely foreign to Canada. A caucus is a party-run process, where party members must sign up in advance and attend a physical meeting at a specific time; this may sound familiar to those who have participated in the Canadian political process.<br />
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Iowa, however, has unique features. And Iowa Democrats have further unique features of their own, such as the rule of viability.<br />
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In each polling precinct, voters must arrive and publicly reveal their candidate of choice by standing among fellow supporters of that candidate. A head count is conducted and any candidate with less than 15% support is considered "not viable" and his or her supporters must distribute among the remaining "viable" candidates and final head count is taken and results announced for that precinct. This process happens more or less simultaneously in about 2,000 locations across Iowa. (New features this year allow some pre-caucus caucuses for those who are unable to attend the actual caucus meetings.)<br />
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In an extreme example, a candidate who gets 14% of the vote in every precinct would get 0 delegates because he or she would be non-viable everywhere and would be reported as having gotten 0% of the vote, as pre-viability results are not revealed. Many believe this is what happened in 2008 to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, who had been polling in the mid-high single digits but got near zero on caucus night. In this same scenario, another candidate whose support was concentrated in one region might get a bunch of viable votes and delegates while enjoying less support overall.<br />
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The caucus has become a five-way race. In one of the most recent polls, five candidates polled between 19 and 11 per cent. The six polls included in the RealClearPolitics average include three polls in which Sanders is leader, two in which Biden is leading, and one in which Buttigieg is leading. In those six polls, candidate position among each other has been all over the map.<br />
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<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td></td><td>1st</td><td>2nd</td><td>3rd</td><td>4th</td><td>5th</td></tr>
<tr><td>Sanders</td><td>3</td><td>3</td></tr>
<tr><td>Biden</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>3</td></tr>
<tr><td>Buttigieg</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>4</td></tr>
<tr><td>Warren</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>4</td></tr>
<tr><td>Klobuchar</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>6</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
While Klobuchar is consistently fifth, she has strong regional support which should help her with viability and she has been surging of late, hitting double digits in 3 of the last 4 polls.<br />
<br />
Sanders can afford to lose and very much benefits from winning.<br />
<br />
If Biden loses, he is in trouble and if he places worse than second his campaign may not recover.<br />
<br />
Buttigieg led in the polls consistently for about six weeks from mid-November to the end of 2019. For him to place worse than third would probably be a big blow for his campaign. Expectations are probably low and second place finish may give him <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Mo">the "big mo"</a> coming out of Iowa. A win certainly would put him on an upward trajectory.<br />
<br />
Warren's campaign has been in free fall and if she were to slip into fifth behind Klobuchar, she might have to drop out. Finishing in third would stabilize her campaign. Finishing first or second would give her the "big mo".<br />
<br />
Klobuchar finishing fourth or better would give her the "big mo". However, much like Mike Huckabee in 2008, even a win might not be enough to make her a contender because she lacks the organization and money to compete in the states that follow.<br />
<br />
What will be interesting to see is how this all plays out into the following states.<br />
<br />
If Biden does poorly, he is likely to repeat that in New Hampshire in eight days. He has been dominating in South Carolina but does that slip away after two loses? If Biden wins, could he bounce to a win in New Hampshire, followed by wins in South Carolina and Nevada? Does that mean the race is over before Super Tuesday? <b>Bottom line: Biden needs to finish in at least second place.</b><br />
<br />
Regardless of the outcome in Iowa, Sanders is favoured in New Hampshire. He has led the last nine polls there and represents a neighbouring state. If Warren, who also represents a neighbouring state and has been running third in New Hampsire, does very badly in Iowa, this really helps Sanders. <b>Bottom line: Sanders has the least to lose tonight and could finish third and still realistically win in New Hampshire.</b><br />
<br />
Buttigieg has money and organization. He has led some polls in New Hampshire but has slipped into fourth place in the polling average of late. A win or second place in Iowa could lead to a win or second place in New Hampshire. Otherwise, he is likely to lag in New Hampshire and South Carolina which may eventually prove to be insurmountably bad for his campaign. <b>Bottom line: Buttigieg needs to finish at least third and probably second to have a viable shot at the nomination.</b><br />
<br />
Warren continues to poll okay in New Hampshire, where she is a de facto favourite daughter as she represents Massachusetts in the Senate and most New Hampshirites consume their news from the Boston media market. She also polls robustly in South Carolina. However, she has been moving in the wrong direction and is viewed as having negative momentum. <b>Bottom line: Warren's campaign is on life support and a third place finish could allow that to continue, but she needs to finish first or second to spring back to life.</b><br />
<br />
Others: Klobuchar may live to fight a few more days with a fourth or better finish, but short of a shock win, it is hard to see her even having an unlikely path to the nomination. Billionaires Bloomberg and Steyer will not place better than fifth and probably not better than seventh tonight, however they have a lot to gain out of tonight's results. If Biden does poorly, Steyer has been in second and third place in South Carolina polls and could benefit most. Bloomberg is playing for Super Tuesday and if Sanders is standing alone, Bloomberg might be able to defeat him in the big states. If two or three candidates are still viable heading into Super Tuesday, that's bad news for the billionaires.<br />
<br />nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-31345778388045478252019-12-30T20:22:00.002-04:002019-12-30T20:32:33.877-04:002019: Amazing year for political observers2019 was a great year to be a political observer. Here is my top 10 list. Let me know what I missed in the comments. <br />
<h4>
10. Two Spanish elections</h4>
Spain returned a massive plurality for the socialists at the April elections, making a clear winner for the first time in a country that has had several inclusive elections over the past several years... or not.<br />
<br />
The socialists had been governing very tenuously since a mid-parliament take over last year. The election saw them increase their share of seats in parliament from 85 to 123 in a considerable sign of personal redemption for Pedro Sánchez, the on-again, off-again leader of the socialists who has been controversial and was previously sacked for refusing to back the formation of a right-of-centre government following the previous elections. With nearly double the seats of the runner up conservative party, only the socialists could realistically form a government.<br />
<br />
However, Sánchez stubbornly refused to form a coalition with a more radical socialist party, and instead insisted on facing parliament alone, assuming left-wing parties would back him. He was wrong and new elections were required in November. The two socialist parties lost 10 seats between them, with a far-right populist party benefiting most leaping from fifth place to third and doubling its seats. Sánchez will now agree to form a coalition with his more radical fellow socialists but has a less clear path to forming a government. Abstentions from regional parties on confidence matters may be the only way to avoid a third trip to the polls.<br />
<h4>
9. Minority governments in NL and PEI for the first time</h4>
Minority governments are definitely on the rise in Canada, with four provinces now having them, including three (NB, NL and PE) who for all intents and purposes have them for the first time. This proved to be a harbinger for the federal election as well (see below).<br />
<h4>
8. Three-peat Israeli election</h4>
Israel had an election this spring in which the conservative coalition led by Bibi Netanyahu won 60 out of 120 seats. So close, yet so far. Unable to secure the support of the secular-yet-far-right-and-xenophobic party of Avigdor Lieberman, a former close ally of Netanyahu, a government could not be formed and for the first time Israel held its second election in one calendar year in September. Ironically, this indecision has allowed Netanyahu by default to become the country's longest serving prime minister during the inter-election caretaker period.<br />
<br />
At the September election, Netanyahu's opponents gained ground, but Lieberman remained the kingmaker. A grand coalition seemed possible for a time, but the main opposition Blue and White party refused to serve in a government in which the soon-to-be-indicted Netanyahu was prime minister, and Netanyahu and his Likud party refused to form a government with out him in the driver's seat.<br />
<br />
The third election in 11 months is set for March 2.<br />
<h4>
<b>7. EU election</b></h4>
EU parliamentary elections this spring were historic in that for the first time ever, the two largest groups in parliament - the conservatives and socialists - do not have a combined majority and will have to expand their power sharing agreement with smaller parties. This has already resulted in the preferred choices of both groups for EU commission president being rejected in favour of compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen, a conservative and close ally of Angela Merkel. The election was a setback for the too big parties but a victory for moderates and the left, rather than for the far-right as had been predicted. <br />
<h4>
6. Greek snap election</h4>
Alex Tsipras' Syriza party had a meteoric rise in Greek politics. The beginning of the end of that meteoric rise began with a poor showing in the EU elections earlier this year. Though this had no direct impact on Tsipras' standing, he called a snap election banking on recreating the magic of left-wing populist patriotism vs. the big, bad corporatists of Europe who hold Greece's large debt. Instead, the right-of-centre New Democracy party won an outright majority and returned to power.<br />
<h4>
5. Italian change of government</h4>
The 2018 Italian election had a peculiar outcome. A right-wing populist party came first and a left-wing populist party came second. These parties had little in common with each other, except that they hated the establishment. They formed a grand coalition government anyway. After a year in office, the EU elections triggered political change here as well, but of a very different sort than we saw in Greece. The right-wing populist League party quit the government in which they represented the majority of seats hoping to trigger an election after doing very, very well in European elections. Instead, their former coalition partners formed a new government with their much more ideological simpatico former rivals, the socialist Democratic Party.<br />
<h4>
4. Australian election</h4>
Australia has had six prime ministers since 2010 and was all set to add their seventh. Bill Shorten's Labor Party led in literally every single opinion poll for 17 months leading into the May election. In the end, he came up short (pardon the pun) and Scott Morrison (known in the press as ScoMo) won a third majority government for the conservative Liberal-National coalition. Things may get tougher for Morrison now that he has an opponent with an even better nickname: the new Labour leader is Anthony Albanese, better known as Albo. <br />
<h4>
3. Canadian federal election</h4>
Over the course of a few months we went from a sure Trudeau majority, to a sure Scheer majority, to a who-knows toss up. In my opinion, a second Liberal majority was always a tall order when you consider despite the "Trudeaumania" of 2015, the Liberal majority was only 12 and there were unprecedentedly large Liberal victories in the Atlantic and Manitoba where loss of seats was almost always guaranteed. (Not to mention the four seats in Alberta.)<br />
<br />
The post-election conventional wisdom is one of the best examples of how expectations are how politics are measured, rather than actual results. Trudeau was the big "winner" despite losing a majority many said was impossible to lose not that long ago. Pre-election expectations were 130-145 Liberals seats, which they beat and therefore "won". Andrew Scheer, despite winning more seats than any previous opposition leader, winning the popular vote and robbing Trudeau of his majority, was the "loser" because he foolishly predicted victory for himself and raised expectations. The NDP had their worst showing since the year 2000, but because Singh did well in the debates and saved the furniture he "won" too. The only real winner was probably the Bloc Quebecois which has likely restored itself as a major force in national politics for the next few cycles at least.<br />
<h4>
2. Democratic primary</h4>
My man Joe Biden seems to be surviving despite many expectations to the contrary. However, he faces troubled waters ahead. Both Iowa and New Hampshire are shaky for Biden. The current polling averages have Biden third in a tight four-way race with Pete Buttigieg at 22%, Bernie Sanders at 20%, Biden at 18%, and Elizabeth Warren at 16%. Over in New Hamphire, the polling average reads: Sanders 19%, Buttigieg 18%, Biden 14%, Warren 13%.<br />
<br />
If Joe Biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is difficult to see how he recovers. Previous frontrunners have thought they could do so, but I must have missed the inaugurations of presidents Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush.<br />
<br />
Biden's hope rests in a repeat of the John Kerry playbook in 2004. Kerry was running third-to-forth in Iowa and pulled an upset victory, that catapulted to a runaway victory in New Hampshire and an easy skate to the nomination.<br />
<br />
I say there are three potential paths to the Democratic nomination in the USA:<br />
<br />
a) the establishment front runner, who wins all or most states: see Mondale 1984, Gore 2000, and to some extent Clinton 2016;<br />
b) the acceptable moderate: see Dukakis 1988, Clinton 1992;<br />
c) the outsider who wins Iowa: see Carter 1976, Obama 2008.<br />
<br />
Buttigieg and Sanders clearly fit into the Carter/Obama mold. Warren, in relative contrast to Sanders, may fit into the Dukasis/Clinton mold. Biden is of course the typical Mondale/Gore type frontrunner.<br />
<br />
If Biden wins Iowa, he wins the nomination. If Biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, he is done. If any of the above wins both Iowa and New Hamphire, they will be very difficult to stop. If there is a split decision between Iowa and New Hampshire, we may not know the nominee for many months.<br />
<h4>
1. Brexit</h4>
What a shit show. After years of negotiation and several waves of cabinet resignations along the way, Theresa May presented her deal to leave the EU. Parliament rejected it and May was widely criticized. But then parliament voted on eight (yes 8!) alternatives and parliament rejected all of them also. When May proposed something that might pass parliament - her deal with the option to consider whether to vote on whether to have a second referendum (yes it was that tenuous) - she faced a full-on cabinet revolt and resigned.<br />
<br />
The UK has its third prime minister in four years. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/l1p6z/posts/10161617455925167">I wrote more about May's demise on Facebook some months ago</a>. Boris' rise was controversial and he is a divisive figure
described by some as Britain's Trump. He won the leadership in part, allegedly, by
shenanigans when he apparently lent support to a less palatable rival
who won a place in the runoff by two votes. Boris would probably have
won anyway, but this move made it a sure thing.<br />
<br />
Boris went on to govern awkwardly in a minority situation, proroguing parliament and being overrulled by the courts.<br />
<br />
However, the Remainers in parliament could not get out of their own way and stop or replace Johnson and instead aided him and circumventing fixed-date election law to call a snap poll. The moderate Lib Dems who campaigned as a die-hard remain option felt they had the most to gain and instead were crushed horribly, as was Labour. Now Johnson leads the largest Conservative majority since 1987 and probably the most conservative government in the modern history of the UK. All thanks to the strong help of parties of the left and centre. Great job, guys!nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-43866505231158964362019-10-19T23:18:00.000-03:002019-10-19T23:18:04.200-03:00Federal election predictionAfter pouring over polls, past election results and my gut instincts, I have predicted the results of Monday's election as follows:<br /><br />Liberal 136<br />Conservative 134<br />NDP 33<br />BQ 32<br />Green 2<br />PPC 1<br /><br />This was a surprise to me when I ran up the national tally, though it compares closely to what some of the poll aggretor / seat model types are finding. In particular, I was surprised with the Greens. With an uneducated guess, I would have put them in the high single digits, however the NDP surge in BC is likely very detrimental to the Greens and indeed the <a href="https://insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Data_FedElectionInBC_Oct2019.pdf">only sub-provincial polling breakdown I could find</a> has the Greens running third on Vancouver Island which is where they would have been likely to win the most seats.<br /><br />I arrived at my prediction with the following assumptions:<br />
<ul>
<li>near sweep of the BC Interior by the Conservatives</li>
<li>three way (Lib-Con-NDP) split of the BC lower mainland</li>
<li>three way (NDP-Con-Grn) split of Vancouver Island</li>
<li>Conservative sweep of Alberta</li>
<li>status quo (10 Con - 3 NDP - 1 Lib) in Saskatchewan</li>
<li>Liberals lose 4 of their 7 seats in Manitoba with 2 each going to the Conservatives and NDP</li>
<li>Liberal sweep of 416 area</li>
<li>Liberal / Conservative split of 8 seats each in Eastern Ontario (including Ottawa)</li>
<li>Conservative sweep of central Ontario</li>
<li>rough split of 905 area with slight advantage to Liberals and NDP holding 3 seats</li>
<li>more or less the status quo in both southwestern and northern Ontario</li>
<li>Quebec results appear similar in ways to 2015 and to 2000. In 2000, the Liberals and BQ both got similar popular votes in the range of 40% and split the seats about evenly; Conservatives are polling consistently at the same level they were in Quebec in 2015. So I assume the Conservatives again win 12 seats, the NDP and the PPC each take 1 seat and the remaining 64 seats are split evenly at 32 each for the Liberals and BQ</li>
<li>in the Atlantic, I have the Liberals holding onto 20 seats, with 9 going Conservative and 3 to the NDP</li>
<li>in the North, I really just took a shot in the dark based on past trends and said Liberals 2, NDP 1.</li>
</ul>
In this scenario a Liberal+NDP+Green combination would be 171 seats to 167 for all others; a plausible arrangement which would avoid the Liberal nightmare of needing the NDP, Greens and the BQ to clinch the magic number. But there is virtually no margin for error here. I suspect we will not know the form of our government for several days or perhaps weeks after the election as some negotiations will likely be required, and indeed whether or not a certain grouping of parties has 170 seats may only be determined by a recount. This could be somewhat moot if the Liberals try to govern on a issue-by-issue basis.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-82975462538345751632019-08-02T23:01:00.000-03:002019-08-02T23:01:15.037-03:00Who Am I?<br />
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
I have been interested in politics for as long as I can remember. </div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
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Growing up in rural
western New Brunswick, we had three television channels; two of which
were American. I watched the CBS evening news with Dan Rather almost
every night, with its much more youth-friendly time slot than CBC's
The National. One of my earliest memories was bragging to my father
that I knew the identity of both the president and vice-president of
the United States. His response was to ask me who was the prime
minister of Canada. I was embarrassed that I had no idea and soon
remedied that!</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Other early
political memories include watching the 1990 Liberal leadership
convention on rabbit ears with my grandfather; on New Year's Eve,
1990-91, celebrating the privilege of being allowed to stay up as
late as I wanted by choosing to watch the Edmonton news at 1 a.m. (by
then we had 12 channels, including Edmonton's CITV) to see the
reaction to the GST taking effect in sales-tax-free Alberta, my
mother hounding her boyfriend to vote in the 1992 Charlottetown
referendum, and so forth. Another memory was flying from Montreal to
St-Leonard as an unaccompanied minor and sitting next to my local MP
and federal cabinet minister Bernard Valcourt and chatting about
federal politics the whole time. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
My interest in
politics transcends borders and I closely follow politics all over
the world. I find it as interesting and enjoyable as sports are to
many. It is a source of great pride for me that many who know me rely
on me as a virtual encyclopedia of political trivia, and I enjoying
sharing random facts with others to encourage discussion and
awareness of politics and public policy. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
My first direct
involvement in politics was during the 1995 provincial election at
the age of 14, when I put up signs for a close friend's father who
was the local CoR candidate. (In hindsight, I don't care much for
their politics, but in fairness, Kevin was running for them mostly
because he had been unsuccessful in seeking the PC nomination.) In
1998, Wes McLean, my classmate, future MLA and current deputy chief of staff to
Blaine Higgs, recruited me to join the PC Party of Canada to support
Joe Clark for leader, a man I still admire. That same year, I helped
my stepmother get elected to village council with the most votes
entitling her to the position of deputy mayor. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
At my ideological
core I am likely a "Red Tory", but as Red Toryism is mostly
dead in Canada federally and in New Brunswick, I gradually drifted to
the Liberals. A key turning point for me was Bernard Lord's decision
to accept shadow tolls (where all New Brunswick share the toll costs
equally, including for non-New Brunswick motorists) as an alternative
to consumer tolls (where the user pays). I remained a federal Tory
however, and volunteered on a local campaign in 2000, casting my
first ever vote for the PC Party of Canada. By coincidence, a hall
mate in university was the son of Liberal MLA Eric Allaby, and my
regular anti-Bernard Lord rants resulted in an introduction to
provincial Liberal politics where I soon became active and was
elected to the Young Liberal executive. </div>
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<br /></div>
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My preference would
be to be a non-partisan political strategist for hire, but given that
trust and loyalty are the main currencies in our politics
“partying-hopping” is not a legitimate option for someone who
wants to work in politics. So it was that I gradually drifted to
involvement with the federal Liberals as well, more of necessity than
desire. With the eventual folding of the PCs into the Canadian
Alliance, however, I likely would have ended up there anyway. </div>
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<br /></div>
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I admire and tend to
root for for underdogs, and as such have a long history of backing
worthy but losing candidates in leadership races, including Allan
Rock and Sheila Copps, Paul Duffie, and Gerard Kennedy. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
This blog got its
start in 2006 while I was living in Ottawa. Unable to work on the
snap election in New Brunswick that fall, I decided to become
involved by writing about it. I wrote anonymously largely because
many political bloggers popping up at that time were anonymous and it
seemed a good way to be able to comment completely honestly on the
campaigns of friends and acquaintances without feeling the need to
temper my comments to protect the feelings of others. </div>
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<br /></div>
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In 2008, I moved
back to New Brunswick to take a non-partisan position in the civil
service, with plans to leave the practice politics behind so as to
provide a secure income and start a family. Instead I became the
youngest communications director (28) and youngest chief of staff
(33) to a New Brunswick premier. Whoops!</div>
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<br /></div>
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When I was asked to
join Shawn Graham's office in 2009, the Liberals were ahead in the
polls, the NB Power sale had not yet been announced publicly (nor
privately to me), and New Brunswick had not had a one-term government
in modern times. Nonetheless, I entered the office on secondment
until prior to the set election date, with a plan to return to the
civil service, which I did. </div>
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<br /></div>
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My political
activity lapsed out of necessity as my return to the civil service
under a new PC government was decidedly unpleasant. After being
shuffled around to less and less meaningful roles, I was finally
given the option to "voluntarily" accept a demotion and pay
cut, or lose my job. With financial security for my family firmly in
mind, I chose the former and did my best to keep my nose clean. I
blogged (and tweeted) often to satisfy my interest in politics, but
that became risky, as some of those who had figured out my identity
threatened to "out" me if they didn't like my writings.
This included a well-known journalist who took offense to me saying
he was being unfair to PC cabinet ministers!</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
The blog never
really recovered from that period, and I largely took a pass on the
2012 provincial and 2013 federal leaderships. I did vote, of course,
and keeping with my stellar record, supported losing candidates (rather
than Gallant or Trudeau) in both contests. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
I have remained
semi-active on Twitter, but in keeping with my long-standing practice
of not commenting anonymously on political jurisdictions in which I'm
on the payroll of a politician, I focused my attention mostly on
international politics from 2009-10 and 2015-18. </div>
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<br /></div>
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Politics makes for
strange bedfellows, or so goes the idiom. Having opposed both Shawn
Graham and Brian Gallant for Liberal leader, both gave me the biggest
jobs I have ever had in politics (although not right away)!</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
In the case of
Gallant, there were a series of "right place at the right time"
events. My wife and I had our second child in May 2014, and I had
long planned to take parental leave. The timing of this leave aligned
with the upcoming provincial election campaign. Although, I had no
political relationship with Gallant, two former political associates
asked me to help with the Liberal platform; this led to my authorship
thereof. I also convinced one of Gallant's inner circle of the merit
of a transition plan, and was mandated to quietly write one after
completing the platform. This led to a staff position supporting the
transition team, then to one leading the strategic program review
which I had conceived as part of the platform process and laid the
groundwork for in the transition process. Despite this, Gallant and I
had not grown close, and I was far from the inner circle. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
However, by summer
2015, the government had been in power for eight months and still did
not have a permanent chief of staff. I was consulted and offered
numerous names. My name was floated once and I retorted "I don't
think the 32-year-old premier needs a 33-year-old chief of staff!"
However, with many other more seasoned names having been passed over
or having declined the job, I was asked if my name could be put
forward. I agreed, though with little expectation of success. I was
cruising the Mactaquac head pond for a friend's bachelor party when I
got a call to come in to meet the premier, and had to be taken ashore
to do so!</div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Thereafter, Gallant
and I became close political associates out of necessity and similar
work styles. I have always believed that the number one quality in a
chief of staff is to have good chemistry with the political
principal, and worked hard to ensure that was so. I told him in order
to be effective, I would need the privilege to enter his office,
close the door and offer my frank opinion on any matter at any time.
In return, I would leave his office and implement his decision
whether or not I agreed, and no one would ever know my view, as my
job was to implement his. He agreed with this arrangement, and I
accepted the job. The three years that followed were some of the
toughest and most rewarding of my career. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="line-height: 100%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
Now having been
closest to the centre of provincial politics as possible, I am back
on the outside, still with lots of interest and opinions and little
outlet for them. So here I am, resurrecting this blog. I have no
political agenda, but am pulling back the curtain for others to judge
for themselves. My name is Jordan O'Brien, and I am nbpolitico.</div>
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<br /></div>
<style type="text/css">p { margin-bottom: 0.25cm; line-height: 115%; background: transparent none repeat scroll 0% 0%; }</style>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-3754018800103015952014-09-22T15:27:00.001-03:002014-09-22T15:27:39.122-03:00Election Night Watching GuideWelcome to New Brunswick Election Night 2014!<br />
<br />
Here are some things I will be watching for tonight.<br />
<br />
<b>1. Bellwether ridings</b><br />
<br />
Earlier this year, I tried to identify the <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/05/what-are-new-brunswicks-tipping-point.html">tipping point riding</a> for New Brunswick elections. No matter how you diced the numbers, these 7 ridings came up as most likely to be decisive in the election outcome.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Portland-Simonds</li>
<li>Kent South</li>
<li>Moncton South</li>
<li>Quispamsis</li>
<li>Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin</li>
<li>Memramcook-Tantramar</li>
<li>Miramichi Bay-Neguac</li>
</ul>
None of these are perfect ridings to measure. Memramcook-Tantramar has the potential to be a four-way race. Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin and Portland-Simonds have the potential to be three-way races. Quispamsis is a fascinating test case in whether a strong local candidate can survive a large provincial trend against him.<br />
<br />
However, if it looks as though one party is winning all or most of these ridings, they are likely to win the election. If there is a split decision among these ridings, it should be a long night.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>2. Minor party leaders' seats</b><br />
<br />
All three of New Brunswick's "third party" leaders have an outside chance of winning their seats. I would give David Coon a 50-50 chance in his riding, Dominic Cardy a 40-60 chance and Kris Austin a 25-75 chance.<br />
<br />
<i>Fredericton South</i><br />
<br />
David Coon is running here and appears to be well organized. His big signs went up fast and he is winning the lawn sign war. He has focused almost exclusively on campaigning in the riding and has had two visits from Elizabeth May. The Greens clearly have an all-in strategy here, which proved very effective for them with May and Saanich-Gulf Islands in the last federal election. On paper, it would be difficult to craft a more left-leaning urban riding in the province. The municipal wards within this riding stood alone in voting for left-wing professor Matt Hayes over Brad Woodside in the last municipal election. The NDP would likely have won this riding in 2003 had these boundaries been in place. And the Liberals would have eked out a narrow win in 2010 despite losing provincewide by 14 points.<br />
<br />
But Coon faces tough competition. Energy Minister Craig Leonard stands for the PCs and former Liberal cabinet minister Kelly Lamrock stands for the NDP. The Liberals are running a lesser known candidate in Roy Wiggins. With an independent candidate on the ballot as well, it is conceivable that the victor could take this riding with less than 25% of the vote, and likely it will be won with less than 35%.<br />
<br />
<i>Fredericton West-Hanwell</i><br />
<br />
Several observers were surprised when Dominic Cardy opted to run here rather than the seemingly safer bet of Fredericton South. Perhaps he feared splitting the vote with Coon who announced for Fredericton South before Cardy chose a riding. Or perhaps he was trying to make a show of a "new NDP" who didn't need to put its leader into its safest seat.<br />
<i> </i><br />
This wi<i></i>ll be a tight three-way race between Cardy, PC incumbent from Fredericton-Silverwood Brian Macdonald and Liberal newcomer Bernadine Gibson. Green candidate Gayla MacIntosh has signs up and was runner up for the Liberal nomination and probably will get into the double digits of percentage support.<br />
<br />
Cardy has been traveling all of the province and not spending as much time in his riding as Coon or Austin. Is this because he has the riding all sewn up? Or is it because he hopes a rising tide provincewide will lift all boats? We'll find out tonight.<br />
<br />
<i>Fredericton-Grand Lake</i><br />
<br />
Kris Austin rounds out the party leaders running in the Fredericton region. He took an impressive 20% of the vote in the old riding of Grand Lake-Gagetown despite having founded his party just months before the vote. He took most of his base with him to Fredericton-Grand Lake, having had over 30% of the vote in the polls that moved into this new riding. That means in the overall riding of Fredericton-Grand Lake, despite there having not been a People's Alliance candidate in half the riding, he starts with a base of 15%. The question is, can he expand his appeal beyond the Minto-Chipman area and into the Fredericton part of the riding? In a three-way race with the PCs and Liberals, 40% of the vote should be more than enough.<br />
<br />
<b>3. Interesting races</b><br />
<br />
The Fredericton South race covered above is one of the most interesting in the province. Other interesting races include:<br />
<br />
<i>Quispamsis</i><br />
<br />
This riding and its predecessors have voted with the government in every election going back to the creation of single-member ridings in 1974. Blaine Higgs has a strong personal brand, perhaps unprecedented for a non-party leader in recent New Brunswick political history.<i> </i>If the Liberals win big as polls suggest, this will be a fascinating test of whether or not a strong local candidate can trump a provincial trend.<br />
<br />
<i>Memramcook-Tantramar</i><br />
<br />
The old riding of Tantramar (which makes up about 70% of this new riding) was the best seat for the Greens in 2010. The NDP won this seat in 1982 and nearly won it in a 1997 by-election. The PCs have held it since 1997, but it voted strongly for the Liberals in 1987, 1991 and 1995.<br />
<i> </i><br />
This<i></i> race features two incumbents: PC Mike Olscamp who has held Tantramar since 2006 and Liberal Bernard LeBlanc who has held Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe since 2006. Both have served in cabinet when their respective parties formed government. The NDP is running a well known candidate in Helene Boudreau, though she is better known in Dieppe than in this riding. Margaret Tusz-King who delivered the strong Green showing in 2010 is not offering again, but Megan Mitton seems to be a candidate cut from the same cloth and should do well.<br />
<br />
This is probably the most competitive incumbent vs. incumbent race in the province and also is the only riding aside from Fredericton South which offers the potential for a four-way race.<br />
<br />
Add to that that this was identified as a potential tipping point riding based on the results within these new boundaries going back to 1995.<br />
<br />
<i>Carleton-Victoria</i><br />
<br />
Though not on the list of tipping point ridings, this was very close. Based on its past results, it should lean slightly to the Liberals and is a seat they could win in an election they lose overall. The question is, what will the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/canada/newbrunswick/story/1.2764536">Andy Harvey affair</a> have done to the Liberals' chances here? Harvey has seen the charges dropped and is playing the victim card. Does that hurt or help? It will be curious to see how the results stack up vs. what the expectation would have been for generic candidates in a generic election.<br />
<i> </i><br />
<i> Saint John Lancaster</i><br />
<br />
The <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crZH23DclIY">infamous Abel LeBlanc</a> is making a comeback bid in the riding he represented from 2003-2010, but this time for the NDP. Is Abel's distinct salt-of-the-earth brand enough to propel him over the top in this riding which has never been a bastion of NDP strength?<br />
<br />
<i>Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West</i><br />
<br />
This is one of two (with Memramcook-Tantramar) incumbent vs. incumbent races which interests me. Rick Doucet has won this riding easily, and its predecessors were regularly won by Liberals Eric Allaby and Sheldon Lee going back to 1987 and 1978 respectively. However, David Alward has been making a heavy play for both Greater Saint John and rural anglophone New Brunswick to save his skin. With the outspoken Dr. Jim Parrott running here, Doucet faces a far more able opponent than he has seen before. Even with a likely Liberal victory if polls are to be believed, this seat has an outside potential of switching hands in the opposite direction.<br />
<br />
<i>Hampton</i><br />
<br />
This riding features incumbent Bev Harrison standing for the NDP. The NDP has a bit of a history in this riding as it is made up of parts of the old Kings West (where former party leader George Little got more than 30% of the vote in the 1980s) and the old East Saint John (which the NDP won in a 1984 by-election).<br />
<i> </i><br />
Hampton<i></i>-Kings was a Tory stronghold when Harrison held it for the PCs from 1999 onward, but this is a much different riding having traded the rural Kingston Peninsula for suburban and urban parts of Saint John.<br />
<br />
Nonetheless, there is a strong PC base here and with the PCs and NDP running hard, the Liberals could sneak up the middle. It is no coincidence that Gallant and Cardy both spent time here over the weekend.<br />
<br />
<b>4. Signs of an NDP breakthrough</b><br />
<br />
The NDP's best hopes are Fredericton West-Hanwell, Fredericton South, Saint John Harbour and Hampton. It is conceivable to me that they could win any one of these ridings. For them to expand beyond this base, they probably need to have had sufficient strength to have won all four.<br />
<br />
So, if the NDP starts winning some of the following seats in their second tier, they have probably won 4+ seats: Fredericton North, Portland-Simonds, Saint John East, Memramcook-Tantramar.<br />
<br />
<b>5. Signs of a Liberal sweep</b><br />
<br />
The Liberals seem to be running strong candidates and strong campaigns in two ridings which would tend to be Conservative strongholds: Gagetown-Petitcodiac and New Maryland-Sunbury. Despite strong campaigns, it would be a major accomplishment to win either of these seats for the Liberals. If they win both, they are almost certainly in the 40+ seat range.<br />
<br />
<b>6. Signs of a PC comeback</b><br />
<br />
If the PCs manage to steal Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West or Miramichi from the Liberals, it is probably a good night for them. If they hold seats like Victoria-la-Vallee, Fredericton-Grand Lake or Restigouche West they are likely to be re-elected.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-53649257635727923532014-09-22T00:40:00.001-03:002014-09-22T00:40:16.925-03:00Modeling the election resultAs I <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/03/building-seat-model-for-new-brunswick.html">detailed earlier</a>, I have built a seat model for New Brunswick. You input polling data and based on the results of the last 5 elections and other factors, it predicts the results in New Brunswick's new 49 ridings.<br />
<br />
On the eve of the election, there are two fresh polls to consider. A poll from local firm Corporate Research Associates taken Sept. 15-18 and a poll by ubiquitous robo-poller Forum Research taken on Sept. 21.<br />
<br />
There are pros and cons to both of these polls.<br />
<br />
CRA has an excellent track record in New Brunswick and <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/2010/09/two-nb-polls-tell-slightly-different.html">came within two points of calling the 2010 election</a>. It also has decades of experience polling New Brunswick and there is as much art as science in finding a truly representative sample, especially in a relatively small province with distinct regional variations. The disadvantage is that the data is older and developments like the CTV Leaders' Debate were missed.<br />
<br />
Forum has the advantage of recentness and a <b>huge </b>sample size. In fact, I do not think I have ever seen an opinion poll done in New Brunswick with a simple this large. However, Forum's methodology is one which has incredibly low response rates. And because it was done just on one day, they may have missed a variety of voter types. Forum's track record is spotty, particularly when it polls smaller jurisdictions where getting a random sample is trickier.<br />
<br />
CRA says it is an almost certain Liberal win with Liberals at 45, PCs at 36, NDP at 11 and Greens at 6. Forum agrees for the smaller parties, but has the PCs and Liberals tied at 40 points each.<br />
<br />
Forum has their own seat model which says a 40-40 tie would yield a 26-23 PC majority. My model agrees with that assessment.<br />
<br />
CRA's poll paints a completely different picture: a two-to-one Liberal majority of 33-16.<br />
<br />
Who's right? We'll know in about 24 hours.<br />
<br />
There are a few ways to crunch these numbers, and I'll be curious to see how Eric Grenier deals with it over at <a href="http://threehundredeight.com/">ThreeHundredEight.com</a>.<br />
<br />
In my gut, I trust CRA's knowledge of the region and track record above that of Forum. So I would give CRA double the relative weight of Forum. However, because Forum polled more than 4 times as many people, they would still get the advantage.<br />
<br />
If you combine the polls and weight Forum's sample at 50%, you get a combined sample of 1014: 333 from CRA and 681 from Forum. That gives a 43-37 Liberal win in the popular vote and a 30-19 win in the seat count.<br />
<br />
That will be the official <i>nbpolitico</i> projection for the election. My gut <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/09/a-brief-look-at-ridings.html">prediction was posted earlier</a> and is 38-8-2-1. It assumes a few strong local campaigns for the third parties that pollsters will have missed, and that New Brunswickers will have been influenced by the nine point lead in the CRA poll and given the Liberals a late boost through bandwagon effect. It is hard to say what effect the Forum poll will have on voter perceptions; will it being released at midnight tonight it probably won't make the papers and many media outlets have a policy of not reporting polls on election day.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-43137486780232362922014-09-22T00:02:00.000-03:002014-09-22T00:02:24.585-03:00A brief look at the ridingsAs I have done in <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2006/08/brief-look-at-ridings.html">2006</a> and <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2010/08/brief-look-at-ridings.html">2010</a>, I'm going to do a quick run down of each riding and my gut read on them. The result is Liberals 38, PCs 8, NDP 2, Greens 1.<br />
<br />
<b>Restigouche West</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This riding covers almost all of Restigouche County except for Campbellton, Dalhousie and Belledune. The Liberal friendly areas in the central and eastern parts of Restigouche County greatly outnumber the Tory-leaning swing areas of the west.<br />
<br />
<b>Campbellton-Dalhousie</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. Donald Arseneault has proved he can weather difficult storms and get re-elected by large margins. And this time he doesn't even face a storm.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Restigouche-Chaleur</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This riding elected a non-incumbent in the Liberal wipe out of 1999.<br />
<br />
<b>Bathurst West-Beresford</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. While this riding could theoretically vote PC in the right election,<b> </b>the PCs are not likely to win provincewide and do not have a strong candidate here.<br />
<br />
<b>Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. Though this is an incumbent-versus-incumbent battle, on paper this seat is among the safest for the Liberals in the province. Ryan Riordon would have been wiser to run in Bathurst West where he might have been re-elected.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Caraquet</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This seat has only elected PCs in exceptionally good circumstances for their party (in 1982 when the Liberal leader was from rival town Tracadie and in a 2001 by-election when their choice was the government side of the house or opposition).<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This seat has been a stronghold for Tory Paul Robichaud since 1999, however under boundary changes it has gone from a riding 7 points more favourable to the PCs than the provincial average to 6 points more favourable to the Liberals. That means in a generic election, the PCs would need to win the popular vote by 6 points to win here. That outcome is highly unlikely. I will say "leans" only because in my gut I have doubts Robichaud could lose despite what the numbers say.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Tracadie-Sheila</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. The Liberals seem to have finally got their organizational act together here after years of forfeiting the seat to the PCs. Claude Landry is not nearly the popular figure that Elvy Robichaud was.<br />
<br />
<b>Miramichi Bay-Neguac</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This seat has gone Liberal in all elections except for big PC sweeps which we are<b> </b>not likely to see this time. I will say leans only because the Liberal candidate is an anglophone which may not play well in the francophone parts of the riding and because Brian Gallant only attracted 250 people to his closing rally here when Shawn Graham brought out 600 in 2006.<br />
<br />
<b>Miramichi</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. Bill Fraser is the far more popular local MLA than Robert Trevors and Miramichi has only once re-elected a PC MLA (Tanker Malley).<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin</b><br />
<br />
Leans PC. This is a riding where the PC "say yes" message is likely to resonate particularly strongly.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Kent North</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This riding is a merger of the most Liberal parts of two of the most Liberal ridings in the province.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Kent South</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding is quite different than the old Kent South and is far more favourable to the Liberals. This combined with the shale gas issue does not bode well for Claude Williams.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Shediac Bay-Dieppe</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. On paper, one of the best seats in the province for the Liberals. Add in that the Liberal leader is running here and it's all over.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This is the only remaining<b> </b>riding on the map that has only ever voted for one party in its entire history.<br />
<br />
<b>Memramcook-Tantramar</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Mike Olscamp is locally popular and strong NDP and Green campaigns may prevent the Liberals from overcoming that, but my gut still says this seat will probably to go Liberal.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Dieppe</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. Won handily by Liberals in 2010's wipe out.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Moncton East</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. If the PCs can turn things around, this is a seat that can go their way, but if the 9 point CRA lead holds or expands, this should be a Liberal win.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Moncton Centre</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This incumbent-versus-incumbent fight should not be too interesting, it is mostly fought on Collins' home turf and on Liberal friendly turf. Rumour had is that Blais wanted to run in the safer riding of Moncton Southwest but was rejected.<br />
<br />
<b>Moncton South</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding should go Liberal, the question is does the "Turkey Lady"'s personal brand trump her party brand?<br />
<br />
<b>Moncton Southwest</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. Sherry Wilson has rebranded herself from a Riverview town councillor, to a Petitcodiac resident to an opportunist who will run in whatever riding will take her.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Moncton Northwest</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. If John Betts had re-offered, this would be in the PC column. I think with popular local councillor Brian Hicks, the Liberals have a good shot.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Riverview</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Some of the more Tory-friendly polls were shed to Albert making this riding more and more competitive for the Liberals. Word on the ground is that Tammy Rampersaud has out-campaigned Bruce Fitch.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Albert</b><br />
<br />
Safe PC. Very difficult for the PCs to lose here without a vote split and there is no split.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Gagetown-Petitcodiac</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. I have lost count of the number of times Brian Gallant has visited this riding with local candidate Barak Stevens who appears to be a good fit for the riding and has worked hard. "Incumbent" PC Ross Wetmore has represented a small fraction of the riding and I am told has not campaigned aggressively in the new parts of the riding.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. The PC campaign has been here several times and "say yes" should resonate, but the ceiling for that vote seems to be around 40-45%. With no strong NDP or Green campaigns here and former MLA LeRoy Armstrong eating into the PC vote under the PANB banner, the Liberals may have an opportunity here.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Hampton</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding could probably go any of three ways, but with Bev Harrison stealing a lot of the PC vote, I think the Liberals sneak up the middle.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Quispamsis</b><br />
<br />
Leans PC. This riding has always gone with the provincewide winner, but my gut says Blaine Higgs' personal brand will break that record.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Rothesay</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Ted Flemming's bravado is perhaps a bit too much and the Liberals have been campaigning very, very hard.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Saint John East</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding has traditionally only gone PC when there has been a huge wave and they've been aided by the NDP splitting the vote. The NDP has a strong candidate here, but the PCs do not benefit from the large wave.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Portland-Simonds</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Trevor Holder won by about 100 votes in both 2003 and 2006 against a weaker Liberal candidate on friendlier ground. This new riding takes in a lot of Liberal friendly polls from the old Saint John East riding and features a strong Liberal candidate. Without a big PC wave across the province or in Saint John, the Liberals should win here.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Saint John Harbour</b><br />
<br />
Leans NDP. The NDP nearly won this riding in 2010 despite having a campaign focused wholly in Tracadie-Sheila. Dominic Cardy has regularly visited the Port City and this riding in particular and the NDP has campaigned hard.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Saint John Lancaster</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. No PC MLA has been re-elected here since 1982.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Kings Centre</b><br />
<br />
Safe PC. This is one of the strongest PC seats on the map.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Normally I would put this as safe Liberal, but Dr. Parrott makes it interesting.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Charlotte-Campobello</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding has just slipped through the Liberals' hands in close elections like 2003 and 2006. They nominated their candidate early and have campaigned hard.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Oromocto-Lincoln</b><br />
<br />
Leans PC. This is far less friendly terrain for Jody Carr than his previous ridings, but he is a hard worker and will be hard to beat.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fredericton-Grand Lake</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding is excellent on paper for the Liberals. Their only barrier is if Kris Austin splits the anti-government vote and delivers the riding to the PCs, or manages to eke out a win himself.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fredericton North</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. This riding could not be better for the Liberals if it were gerrymandered. Strong NDP and Green campaigns could muck it up for them though.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fredericton-York</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Randy McKeen was designed to be the Liberal candidate for a riding like this and should be able to ride a strong cluster of anti-fracking vote to a win.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fredericton South</b><br />
<br />
Leans Green. This riding is going to see some fascinating splits. The ceiling for PC support in a left-leaning riding like this one should be about 30%, but that could be enough to win. The Liberals have a lesser known candidate, but he has worked hard and benefits from the wind of a likely Liberal victory at his back. The NDP's Kelly Lamrock is well known and has been working hard. David Coon is widely respected and people seem to think they'd like him in the legislature even if they don't like his politics, a bit of an Elizabeth Weir factor. Moreover, his campaign appears to be the best organized of the four. Don't be surprised if we're well into next week doing recounts for this nail-biter.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Fredericton West-Hanwell</b><br />
<br />
Leans NDP. This is no shoe-in for Dominic Cardy, but I believe he has earned a seat in the legislature with his aggressive campaign and voters have a way of recognizing that.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>New Maryland-Sunbury</b><br />
<br />
Leans PC. This is on paper one of the four strongest PC seats in the province. The Liberals have been running HARD here and there may be some Carr fatigure with the third brother now on the ballot. However, the riding's PC leanings and a strong-ish NDP campaign will probably allow Jeff Carr to replace his younger brother.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Carleton-York</b><br />
<br />
Leans PC. On paper, this is the strongest PC riding in English New Brunswick.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Carelton</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. David Alward has never represented half of this new riding and does not live in it. The Liberals have their strongest candidate in years. This may be the surprise of the night.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Carleton-Victoria</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. The Andy Harvey affair has helped not hurt his campaign as he has been able to parlay it into him being the victim of the same backroom interests who dislodged popular local PC MLA Wes McLean in favour of Dale Graham's hand picked successor.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Victoria-la-Vallee</b><br />
<br />
Safe Liberal. This riding should only go PC in big years like 1999 and 2010. This isn't one of those years.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Edmundston-Madawaska Centre</b><br />
<br />
Safe PC. This riding will not change hands at least until Mado Dube retires, if ever.<br />
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston</b><br />
<br />
Leans Liberal. Yvon Bonenfant is no Jeannot Volpe.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-24075616105251560532014-05-29T08:00:00.000-03:002014-05-29T08:00:00.466-03:00Swing-o-meterI've been playing around with the idea of a swingometer for the upcoming provincial election. The efficacy of this is complicated by the high poll numbers for the NDP.<br />
<br />
The concept has been <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8574653.stm">used in the UK</a> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swingometer">for half a century</a>.<br />
<br />
A simple explanation is this: they line up the ridings in order of strongest for major party A to weakest for major party A (and therefore strongest for major party B). They then compute the swing required for each seat to flip to the other party (half of the margin between the parties +1). They can therefore determine how many seats each party should win based on a particular swing in the popular vote.<br />
<br />
Based on <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/03/building-seat-model-for-new-brunswick.html">my seat model</a>, the last election under the new boundaries would have resulted in 38 PCs and 11 Liberals. The PCs won the popular vote by 14.4 percentage points, and therefore a swing between the parties of 7.2 points in favour of the Liberals would result in a tie of the popular vote.<br />
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According to my calculations however, it would actually take a swing of 7.7 percentage points for the Liberals to win a majority government by taking Moncton South as the 25th and decisive seat.<br />
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A swing to the PCs of over 11.6 percentage points would be required for them to sweep every seat in the legislature. But a swing to the PCs of just over 1.7 percentage points would reduce the Liberals to 5 seats - showing just how close the last election was to a near wipe-out for the Liberals.<br />
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Conversely, the Liberals would need a swing of over 23.3 percentage points to take all of the seats.<br />
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The above is blind to the NDP. By design, the swingometer is a two-dimensional creature and can compare only two parties. However, the strength of the NDP changes the ordering slightly even if they're ignored for swingometer purposes.<br />
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This is what the swingometer looks like if we use the last CRA poll as a base. That poll had the Liberals at 43% and the PCs at 31% (the NDP was at 21%). That would indicate a result moving from PCs +14 at the 2010 election to PCs -12, a change of 26 percentage points and a swing of 13 percentage points. Using these numbers as a base, we would expect an election to yield 39 Liberals, 8 PCs and 2 NDPers.<br />
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As you can see, both of the NDP seats come at the expense of what would otherwise have been Liberal seats with this big of a swing. However, if we look at them in terms of road to majority government, the NDP is doing equal damage to both parties: taking an otherwise safe Liberal seat (Saint John Harbour) and an otherwise leans PC seat (Fredericton West-Hanwell).<br />
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In order to recover to a majority government from this poll number, the PCs need a swing of over 5.7 percentage points to win Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin and take 25 seats.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-60637106577565590122014-05-14T08:05:00.000-03:002014-05-14T08:05:00.026-03:00What are New Brunswick's tipping point ridings?Nate Silver did some interesting work in the last U.S. presidential election on <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/27/arizona-is-probably-not-a-swing-state">tipping point states</a>. He was looking to find the state that would be most likely to deliver the deciding electoral vote to win the presidency, regardless of the total margin. It is not unlike the concept of a winning goal in a hockey game; in a 4-0 game, the first goal is decisive; in a 5-4 game it is the winning team's fifth goal that matters most.<br />
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To win a majority government in the 2014 New Brunswick election, a party will need to take 25 seats. The question: which seat is most likely to be that 25th seat? <br />
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I am not as sophisticated as Nate Silver. My analysis was relatively simple. I took all of the ridings and sorted them by the expected PC margin of victory/defeat and then did the same for the Liberals and for the NDP. This ranks the ridings from strongest to weakest for each party. In theory, the 25th strongest seat for the PCs would be their tipping point. I did this with two sets of data, one a simple average of results across the past several elections along the new boundaries, and a second with this data adjusted for incumbency and leadership factors <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/03/building-seat-model-for-new-brunswick.html">as described here</a>.<br />
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Because this data is imprecise and local factors may skew close ridings in one direction or the other, I initially focused on a range of 10 tipping point ridings. Some ridings showed up on all four lists, while others were wishy-washy as to whether or not they could be the tipping point.<br />
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A total of 7 ridings fall on all four of the lists between the two major parties, these being the PC and Liberal adjusted and non-adjusted lists of seats in the range of 20-30th best. According to the data, it is in these 7 ridings that the election is most likely to be decided:<br />
<ul>
<li>Saint John Portland</li>
<li>Kent South</li>
<li>Moncton South</li>
<li>Quispamsis</li>
<li>Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin</li>
<li>Memramcook-Tantramar</li>
<li>Miramichi Bay-Neguac</li>
</ul>
The party which wins all or most of these seats is very likely to win the election. If there is a 4-3 split in these seats, it will be a long election night.<br />
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Other contenders for PC-Liberal tipping point seats are:<br />
<ul>
<li>Rothesay (appeared on 3 lists)</li>
<li>Fredericton West-Hanwell (appeared on 3 lists)</li>
<li>Moncton East (appeared on 2 lists)</li>
<li>Charlotte-Campobello (appeared on 2 lists</li>
<li>Saint John Lancaster (appeared on 1 list)</li>
<li>Carleton-Victoria (appeared on 1 list)</li>
</ul>
If the Tories or Liberals win in a landslide, all or most of these ridings will go for them. In a close election, they will be decisive. Back to the hockey game analogy, we're looking for the winning goal. In a 4-0 game, we might not pay that much attention to the first goal, but it was the most important. In a 5-4 game, that winning goal will be all we talk about.<br />
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Based on the reality of the past several years some of these seats seem misplaced, but that is less so the case when you consider the following fact. Something occurred to me while I was working on this list that I guess I knew but which I hadn't quite realized. The Liberals have not won the popular vote in an election in New Brunswick since 1995.<br />
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Ridings like Saint John Portland and Rothesay which are held by senior cabinet ministers and have been PC since 1999 would not seem on their face to be tipping point seats. But they were both won very narrowly in the close elections of 2003 and 2006. It is no surprise to see Quispamsis on this list, it (and its predecssor Kings West) has a perfect record of voting with the winning party going back to the establishment of single member ridings in 1974.<br />
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<b>What about the NDP?</b><br />
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It is unlikely that the NDP will win the election. Really, they are looking to ensure they win seats in the legislature for the first time since the 2003 election. So, I've looked at their first 10 seats.<br />
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Nine seats show up on both the adjusted and non-adjusted list for the NDP:<br />
<ul>
<li>Fredericton West-Hanwell</li>
<li>Saint John Harbour</li>
<li>Hampton</li>
<li>Fredericton South</li>
<li>Tracadie-Sheila</li>
<li>Saint John East</li>
<li>Oromocto-Lincoln</li>
<li>Saint John Portland</li>
<li>Kings Centre</li>
</ul>
The contenders for the NDP's tenth best seat are Miramichi Bay-Neguac and Moncton East.nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-9808879532377183672014-03-06T08:05:00.000-04:002014-03-06T11:59:02.033-04:00Building a seat model for New Brunswick<p>The idea behind a seat model is to try to convert the popular vote estimates from an opinion poll into a seat count as the latter is far more relevant to our politics.</p>
<p>The fact that Richard Hatfield lost the popular vote in 1974, did not prevent him from being premier of a majority government for four years before winning the popular vote in 1978 and 1982. The fact that 40% of New Brunswickers voted for non-Liberal candidates in 1987, did not get any of them elected. More recently, Shawn Graham also won a majority government while losing the popular vote in 2006.</p>
<p>To summarize: the popular vote doesn't tell the whole story in our system of government. It is the seats that count.</p>
<p><b>The Method</b></p>
<p>There are two general approaches that one can take in a seat model. Uniform swing or proportional swing.</p>
<p>Uniform swing has been used for years in Britain and Australia.</p>
<p>It means that all parties take the same arithemetic benefit or loss from their change of support throughout the jurisdiction. So if the Labour vote is down by 10 percentage points from 40 to 30, it drops by 10 percentage points in every riding. In riding X, their support drops from 50% to 40% (which means they've lost 20% of their base votes), in riding Y it drops from 15% to 5% (which means they've lost 67% of their base votes).</p>
<p>The alternative is proportional swing. This is what is generally used by election projectionists in North America, including the site <a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/">ThreeHundredEight.com</a> which has projected a lot of Canadian elections from polls. <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/final-seat-projections.html">Calgary Grit</a> and <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html">FiveThirtyEight</a> use seat models which are built on a base of proportional swing, with many other fancy features.</p>
<p>It means that parties move in support relative to their base. So if the Labour vote is down by 10 percentage points from 40 to 30, it drops by 25% in every riding, meaning they take a relatively bigger hit in ridings were they had more votes to lose. In riding X, their support drops from 50% to 37.5% (25% of 50% is 12.5 percentage points), in riding Y it drops from 15% to 11.25% (25% of 15% is 3.75 percentage points).</p>
<p>The teaser seat modelling I have done on Twitter has been based on a proportional swing method.</p>
<p>I have spent the past several weeks improving and testing the model in anticipation for the main event in September.</p>
<p>One of the things I tested was each of the past 5 elections' popular vote versus the actual results in seats.</p>
<p>Interestingly, I found that proprtional swing does a better job producing the overall provincewide seat total. However, it does this while making many errors at the local seat level which tend to cancel each other out. While the uniform swing doesn't do quite as will with the final overall result, it does do a better job at the local seat level (its errors tend to be in one direction rather than both, so its overall numbers are worse).</p>
<p>I played around with a number of "half-way" alternatives. The most simple of these, taking the result under uniform swing and under proportional swing and simply averaging them proved to work the best. On average it tied the uniform swing for accuracy at the local level, and proportional swing for accuracy at the provincial level. I will be using this hybrid model going forward.</p>
<p>This model uses results of the 1995-2010 general elections as a base. I have transposed the 1995-2003 ridings and the 2006-2010 ridings onto the new boundaries to be used for the 2014 election. The 1995-2003 are weighted half as much as the two more recent 2006 and 2010 elections to create an "average" election result from which the model builds its projection based on change in the popular vote from that hypothetical election to what the opinion polls are saying. For the Greens and PANB, their 2010 results are used as a base as that is the only election they have contested. Votes for defunct parties and independents are ignored by the model.</p>
<p>This model is not as fancy as the models used by <a href="http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/final-seat-projections.html">Calgary Grit</a> and <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/03/frequently-asked-questions-last-revised.html">FiveThirtyEight</a>, which model thousands of iterations based on the margins of error, etc and generate a percentage liklihood of each parties' chance of winning a particular riding. I do run about a dozen scenarios through the model pushing each party to the upper and lower range of the margin of error to generate seat ranges.</P>
<p><b>Adjustments: A Hand Up for the Leader</b></p>
<p>Another measure that I have incorporated into the model is a "leader bounce".</p>
<p>I've looked at the result of the leader in his or her riding in those elections he or she contested, and that of his or her party in that riding in the elections immediately before and after his or her leadership tenure. This allows one to assume how a generic candidate of the leader's party might have done in that riding so that it can be compared to the leader's result.</p>
<p>For instance, Robert Higgins led the Liberal Party in the 1974 election. He ran in the riding of Saint John Park. He received 14.6 percentage points more of the popular vote in his riding than the Liberal Party did provincewide. We cannot look at the previous election as Saint John Park was part of the 4-member Saint John Centre riding at that time. We therefore look at the two succeeding elections. In 1978, the Liberals beat their provincewide showing in Saint John Park as well, but only by 2.6 percentage points. In 1982, the Liberals did 4.6 percentage points better in Saint John Park than they did provincewide. The average of these two comparable elections is a 3.6 percentage point lean to the Liberals, while the riding leaned 14.6 percentage points to the Liberals when Higgins was leader. We therefore calculate Higgins' leader bounce as 11.0 percentage points.</p>
<p>The analysis finds that 15 of the 17 men and women who have led one of the three major political parties into an election since 1974, have had a bounce on average. If we single out each election contest, of the 10 elections since 1974*, the 3 major party leaders have had a bounce 25 of 30 times. The two exceptions are Richard Hatfield, who underperformed what we assume a generic Tory would have done in Carleton Centre in 1978, 1982 and 1987 and Shawn Graham, who underperformed what we assume a generic Liberal (actually, not that generic as the comparator is his father) would have done in 2003 and 2006. Hatfield exceeded expectations in 1974, while Graham exceeded expectations in 2010. All other leaders have exceeded expectations versus their provincewide popular vote every time they've led their party to the polls.</p>
<p>So, it is clear to say that there is a leader bounce. Unpacking the numbers a bit, a few other potential conclusions can be observed:</p>
<ol><li>Liberal leaders tend to get smaller bounces than Conservative and NDP leaders. My conjecture on this is that because all 6 Liberal leaders since 1974 have run in ridings that lean Liberal to begin with, their potential voter pool is already somewhat saturated. Conservative leaders Dennis Cochrane and Bernard Lord ran in ridings that were then somewhat less Conservative-leaning than the province as a whole, as did NDP leaders John LaBossiere and Roger Duguay.</li>
<li>Liberal and Conservative leaders tend to get their biggest bounce in their first election as leader, while NDP leaders tend to see their bounce grow over time.</li>
<li>While Liberal leaders tend to have the same-sized bounce whether they win or lose the election, Conservative leaders actually do better in their home riding relative to the provincewide performance of their party when losing the election than when they win. Thus, it is more likely for a Liberal leader to lose his or her seat when being swept out of office than a Conservative, though this has not happened in recent history.</li></ol>
<p>These conclusions should all be taken with a grain of salt. The whole analysis is based on 30 cases, which is a very small sample size. The three observations above are drawn from subsets of that already small sample. However, I believe that there is a compelling enough case to adjust for the presence of the leader. I have applied an "anti-leader bounce" to past ridings in elections where a leader was a candidate, and have in turn applied an appropriate leader bounce to the five ridings being contested to the party leaders in 2014.</p>
<p><small>*I thought I would explain why I only went back to 1974 for those who were interested, but it was too long a tangent to include in the main body of the post. Prior to that, analysis is difficult if not impossible as multi-member ridings were in place and calculating voting trends is very difficult. New Brunswick used the block voting system prior to 1974 in most ridings. Under this system, many ridings returned more than one member and each voter had as many voters as his riding had members. For instance, a voter in Gloucester County could cast 5 votes, while a voter in Campbellton could cast only 1. Thus, it is impossible with the data available to calculate the popular vote (that could only be done by examining every individual ballot). Moreover, as voters were not required to cast all of their votes (our Gloucester voter could have chosen to vote for 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 candidates) and they could split their ballot (that is to say our Gloucester voter might have case 2 ballots for Liberals, 2 ballots for Conservatives and 1 for an NDPer). Due to this additional complication, it is impossible attempt to accurately transform the votes into a form that could compare with the popular votes in single member ridings after 1974.</small></p>
<p><b>Adjustments: A Hand Up for Incumbents</b></p>
<p>I've also done some research on whether or not the "incumbency factor" exists in New Brunswick elections. I looked at the 1978, 1982, 1987, 1991, 1999, 2003 amd 2010 elections (all elections where the previous election was fought under the same boundaries). In those elections, it showed that on average incumbents did about 6 points better than non-incumbents controlling for the regular partisan advantage within their ridings. This worked out to be virtually the same for Liberals and Conservatives. I also looked at the 1995 and 2006 elections to determine whether or not this holds true when the incumbent is running in a riding with significant portions that he or she has not previously represented. In these cases it looks like incumbents do on average 4 points better. I have applied a five point "bonus" to incumbents, including in cases where there are two incumbents in the same riding (meaning they have no relative advantage over each other, but they do over minor parties).</p>
<p><b>Effectiveness: How Would Have it Worked?</b></p>
<p>I plugged the popular vote results for the last 5 elections into the model as a test. It called the overall seat total correctly in the 2006 election, missed by no more than 1-2 seats per party in 1999 and 2003, and no more than 3 seats per party in 1995 and 2010. The incubmency factor was not in play in these tests and may have improved the results. In any event, if the polls are correct (always a big if), it seems this model should come fairly close to the seat totals as the election approaches.</p>
<p>I will begin using this seat model with the CRA poll to be released later today.</p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-70402827164545153012014-02-24T08:05:00.000-04:002014-02-24T08:05:00.705-04:00Whither the People's Alliance?<p>This is my latest assessment of where the five parties stand a good chance of winning in 2014. First, I assessed the general leanings of each of the new 49 ridings <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/01/new-brunswicks-new-ridings.html">for the two main parties</a>, then I looked at <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/01/whither-ndp.html">the NDP's best shots</a>, and then <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/02/whither-greens.html">the Greens</a>. Now I turn to the People's Alliance.</p>
<p><b>Overview</b></p>
<p>In some ways, the People's Alliance provides the most difficult task for objective analysis. The NDP has been on the ballot for decades, so it is easy to look for trends and consistent pockets of strength. For the Greens, though they too have only fought one election, there are at least federal election results where the Greens have had consistent campaigns and trends going back to 2004.</p>
<p>The People's Alliance has no federal counterpart and has no provincial electoral history. And even in 2010, they only contested 14 of 55 ridings. How might they have done in the other 41 ridings had they been on the ballot? It is nearly impossible to say.</p>
<p>However, there is one other dataset at which we can look. That is the results for the <a href="New Brunswick Confederation of Regions Party">Confederation of Regions party</a> in the 1991 and 1995 elections. The People's Alliance does not seem to welcome comparisons to CoR. However, they are both populist parties made up principally of right-of-centre individuals with a skepticism towards at least some aspects of official bilingualism. Even if PANB is not a successor to CoR, they would seem to compete for the same universe of voters.</p>
<p>It is not likely a coincidence that the leader and deputy leader of the party both hail from areas where CoR won seats in 1991.</p>
<p>It is easy to write off the People's Alliance as a fringe party after they got only 1.2% of the vote in 2010. However, that does not tell the whole story. The People's Alliance only contested a small subset of ridings, PANB got 4.9% of the vote in the 14 ridings where they actually ran candidates.</p>
<p>Compare this to the Greens who took 5.0% in the 49 ridings they contested. When one looks at the potential for these two parties, they must be treated at least as equals. Indeed, the Alliance vote was more "efficient" in that their best riding saw their candidate take almost 50% more of the vote share than in the Greens' best riding.</p>
<p>Curiously, the People's Alliance ran in only 2 of the 9 ridings in Central New Brunswick which had been CoR's strongest region in 1991. This suggests there was untapped potential for the party in 2010. Indeed, with the PCs almost certain to lose some of their vote from 2010 (when they scored their second highest popular vote in modern history), the PANB is well positioned to capture right-of-centre voters who would not consider the Liberals, NDP or Greens.</p>
<p>Taking a look back to CoR's 1991 results, they won 8 ridings. I'll lay them out here and explain how they relate to current ridings:</p>
<ul><li>Fredericton North: The current Fredericton North falls completely within the boundaries of this old riding, but significant portions of the old Fredericton North can also be found in Fredericton-York and Fredericton-Grand Lake</li>
<li>York North: This old riding is distributed almost evenly between Fredericton-York and York</li>
<li>York South: Most of this old riding can be found in York and Fredericton-Hanwell, small portions of it can be found in New Maryland-Sunbury and Charlotte-Campobello</li>
<li>Sunbury: This riding is split roughly in three between Fredericton-Grand Lake, Oromocto-Lincoln and New Maryland-Sunbury</li>
<li>Oromocto: This riding is wholly contained in the new riding of Oromocto-Lincoln</li>
<li>Southwest Miramichi: This riding is almost wholly contained in the new riding of Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, small pieces of it are in Miramichi Bay-Neguac</li>
<li>Riverview: Most of this riding is still found in the modern riding of Riverview, with pieces of it in Albert</li>
<li>Albert: This riding is almost wholly contained within the new, larger Albert riding; a small piece of it can be found in Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins</li></ul>
<p>One of the advantages that CoR had in 1991 which they won't in 2014, is that there were no PC incumbents. Right-of-centre voters had no sitting MLAs where they were naturally aligned. This probably allowed them to get higher vote totals than they might have otherwise. For this reason, PANB may want to target opportunities where there is no PC incumbent, such as New Maryland-Sunbury.</p>
<p><b><u>First Tier Targets</u></b></p>
These are ridings where PANB has nominated candidates early, the candidate has some profile, and the riding has shown a sympathy for the party. All of these are key factors in a potential breakthrough.
<p><b>Fredericton-Grand Lake</b></p>
<p>Party leader Kris Austin will run here. He scored an impressive 20% of the vote in the old Grand Lake-Gagetown riding in 2010. Even though there was no People's Alliance candidate on the ballot in Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak in that election, the redistributed boundaries give Austin a starting base of 15%. This is because Austin took a whooping 30% of the vote within the Grand Lake-Gagetown polls that move into this new district.</p>
<p><b>Charlotte-Campobello</b></p>
<p>This was the Alliance's second best seat in 2010, where St. Andrews mayor John Craig took nearly 7% of the vote. They have again nominated a candidate here with a high profile and by nominating her early that should give them an organizational edge. Working against them is the fact that this was not a strong area for CoR in 1991, when they placed third in both Charlotte West and St. Stephen-Milltown. However, this riding brings in polls from the McAdam area which gave CoR 54% of the vote in 1991. This is also a riding where the NDP has the potential to do well, so if the Alliance can make a good run here, it could become a four-way race which could be won with less than 30% of the vote.</p>
<p><b>Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin</b></p>
<p>CoR won the Southwest Miramichi part of this riding by a slim margin in 1991, while doing very poorly in the Bay du Vin portion of the riding. In 2010, Wes Gullison got 5% of the vote here - roughly mirroring the average PANB received in ridings where they stood candidates. Therefore, on paper this does not really look like a great riding for the People's Alliance. However, Gullison is already renominated and should have the advantage of an early start. This combined with his profile as deputy leader of the party, should give him a slight edge.</p>
<p><b><u>Second Tier Targets</u></b></p>
These are ridings where either COR did well in 1991 or the People's Alliance did well in 2010 and where there is either no incumbent, or where the incumbent running has not represented the majority of the new riding previously.
<p><b>New Maryland-Sunbury</b></p>
<p>This would have been a very strong riding for CoR in 1991 and has the advantage of being one of the few ridings where the People's Alliance can realistically compete where there is no PC incumbent on the ballot. They would be wise to nominate a candidate here soon.</p>
<p><b>York</b></p>
<p>York North was the Alliance's third best riding in 2010, and it is from that riding that the new York draws most of its population. Carl Urquhart, PC incumbent from the old York riding, has prepsented less than 20% of this new territory. The PANB's 2010 candidate was former Nackawic mayor Steven Hawkes. He did very well despite being nominated late. Nackawic finds itself in the centre of this new riding, while it was on the outer-edge of York North with some of its closest neighbours, including Hawkes' hometown of Canterbury in another district. Were Hawkes to run again and be nominated early, the stars are fairly well aligned for him, relatively speaking.</p>
<p><b>Gagetown-Petitcodiac</b></p>
<p>CoR would have won or nearly won this riding in 1991. The PC incumbent from Grand Lake-Gagetown has represented a minority of the riding.</p>
<p><b><u>Third Tier Targets</u></b></p>
<p>These are ridings where CoR did well in 1991 or the People's Alliance did well in 2010, but are represented by strong PC incumbents.</p>
<p><b>Fredericton-York</b></p>
<p>MLA Kirk MacDonald has served since 1999 and has won all elections easily, except for 2003 when he won by only 101 votes. The new Fredericton-York riding draws just under 50% of its population from MacDonald's current York North riding, however when one takes territory he currently represents as well as territory from the old pre-2006 riding of Mactaquac, MacDonald has represented a solid majority of this area. While this riding would have gone for CoR in 1991, it would have done so against first-term incumbent Liberal backbenchers, far easier targets for a conservative-populist than a four-term Conservative.</P>
<p><b>Albert</b></p>
<p>Unlike Fredericton-York, this riding is in fact largely unchanged from when CoR won it in 1991 (it has added a bit of Riverview and the village of Salisbury). However, as with York North and Fredericton North (the 'ancestors' of Fredericton-York), then the CoR candidate defeated a one-term Liberal backbencher. Defeating a four-term Conservative like Wayne Steeves is a far taller order.</p>
<p><b><u>Fourth Tier Targets</u></b></p>
<p>These are ridings where CoR did well in 1991 but the People's Alliance did not contest in 2010. They are also ridings where demographic changes mean CoR would not likely have done as well today as they did 20 years ago and thus the Alliance is less likely to find them attractive targets.</p>
<ul><li><b>Oromocto-Lincoln</b></li>
<li><b>Fredericton West-Hanwell</b></li>
<li><b>Fredericton North</b></li>
<li><b>Riverview</b></li></ul>
<b>Conclusion</b>
<p>The People's Alliance are likely longshots to win any seats if current polling trends hold. However, if they can manage to capture a significant slice of declining PC support and concentrate that in the Fredericton area as CoR did in 1991, it is not unrealistic for them to see a win. Kris Austin starts with a base of 30% in his home turf, if he can take 30% across the whole of his new riding then he would be very well positioned to win. It is not hard to imagine 35% of the vote being enough to carry Fredericton-Grand Lake in this election. I would say Austin's odds at winning are similar to the odds of Greens leader David Coon.</p>
<p>Overall, I would say that the People's Alliance are more likely to wind up as the fourth party in the legislature than the Greens. That, however, remains an unlikely scenario.</P>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-49750598496780565242014-02-10T08:05:00.000-04:002014-02-10T08:05:00.117-04:00Whither the Greens?<p>This is the third post in my series on the upcoming New Brunswick general election. The first <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/01/new-brunswicks-new-ridings.html">looked at New Brunswick's newly redrawn ridings</a>. The second looked at <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/01/whither-ndp.html">where the NDP might breakthrough</a>.</p>
<p>This post looks at places for a possible Green breakthrough, something that is far less likely than a breakthrough for the NDP. Next will come a look at potential breakthroughs for the People's Alliance.</p>
<p>Unlike the PCs, Liberals and NDP, the Greens (and PANB) have little electoral history to look at to judge where they might do well, as they have only contested one previous election. With only one dataset, it is impossible to know which areas of strength were due to a natural affection for the Green Party and its positions, and which were due to unique circumstances, like the strength of the local Green candidate, the weakness of other parties' candidates, a fleeting local issue, etc.</P>
<p>That being the case, this analysis should be taken with several grains of thoughts (even more than my usual observations).</P>
<p><b>Overview</b></p>
<p>The Greens seem to be stuck at sub-5% in the opinion polls. This would suggest that they are unlikely to win a seat under our first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. However, it is not impossible. If their efforts are very specifically focused, they could succeed. One needs look no further than the example of federal Green leader Elizabeth May who won a seat in the last federal election with a nationwide popular vote of 3.9%. Other examples of success with this level of support would be the BC Progressive Democrats (1 seat on 5.7% in 1996), the Alberta Representative Party (2 seats on 5.1% in 1986), the Manitoba Liberals (1 seat on 7.5% in 2011), Quebec Solidaire (1 seat on 3.8% in 2008), the Quebec Action Democratique (1 seat on 6.5% in 1994), the PEI NDP (1 seat on 7.8% in 1996), and the Newfoundland NDP (1 seat on 4.5% in 1996).</p>
<p>When one looks at the data, the first thing that stands out is that the Green strength is found Moncton and southeastern New Brunswick. In 2010, 6 of the Greens' 8 best ridings were in the Moncton area; as were 10 of their 14 best. This aligns with the other data source we can consider: federal elections. Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe and Beauséjour have generally been the Greens best federal ridings since their breakthrough election of 2004.</p>
<p>In the 2010 election, under the new boundaries the Greens would have had 7 ridings where their vote more than doubled their provincewide popular vote. It is in these ridings that I'll focus my analysis.</p>
<p><b>Fredericton South</b></p>
<p>This would have been the Greens' strongest riding, scoring nearly 14% of the vote - well over 3 times their provincewide popular vote. It is therefore no surprise that Green leader David Coon is running in this riding. Adding to Coon's chances here is not only the strong Green base, but also the fact that this is the only riding in the province likely to see a 4-way race, which means someone could conceivably win the seat with less than 30% of the vote.</p>
<p><b>Memramcook-Tantramar</b></p>
<p>This would have been the Greens' next best riding. In fact, under the old boundaries Tantramar was the best riding for the Greens in 2010. Boundary changes make this area a bit weaker and Fredericton South a bit stronger. Like Fredericton South, there is a chance of a four-way race here, though it is somewhat less likely. The Liberals and NDP have not shown major strength here since there was a three-way PC/Liberal/NDP race in a 1998 by-election with each taking more han 30% of the vote.
<p><b>Moncton South, Fredericton North and Moncton Centre</b></p>
<p>The Green Party would have taken more than 10% of the vote in each of these ridings in 2010. But without a four-way race, or a huge surge in Green support it is difficult to imagine the Greens taking any of these ridings. Fredericton North may be an outlier in this group as much of the Green strength here can be attributed to then party leader Jack MacDougall who is not expected to reoffer.</p>
<p><b>Moncton East and Moncton Northwest</b></p>
<p>The Green Party would have taken more than 9% of the vote in both of these ridings in 2010, which is better than double their provincewide share. Again, there is not much chance of four-way races here which is really what the Greens need to breakthrough at their current levels of support. In Moncton Northwest, a Tory stronghold, there is an outside chance of a moral victory for the Greens as they could place a distant second here under the right circumstances. That is highly unlikely however if the Liberals maintain the strong standing they've seen in recent polls.</p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>At 5% of the popular vote, it would be a reach for the Greens to win any seats. However, there are 2 unique opportunities for the Greens. In Fredericton South and Memramcook-Tantramar the Greens have ridings which are both areas where they have a support base on which to build and potential four-way races that could allow them to sneak up the middle. The Greens would be well served to focus all of their resources on these two seats.</P>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-13113133572709692372014-02-05T08:05:00.000-04:002014-02-05T08:05:00.126-04:00More fun with maps<p>I really can't shake the maps bug I caught <a href="http://nbpolitico.blogspot.ca/2014/02/fun-with-maps.html">a few days ago</a>.</p>
<p>So here is another one I've been working on. Suppose Canada and the United States merged and each of the 10 provinces became states. The result would be a 60-state United States. There would now be 120 U.S. Senators (2 for each state) and the 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives would have to be reapportioned among the 60 states. In presidential elections, each state would have the same number of electors as they have members of both houses of congress (so a minimum of 3, 2 senators + 1 congressman).</p>
<p>The territories, as is U.S. practice, would lose their representation in the Senate, get a non-voting delegate to the House and have no say in presidential elections.</p>
<p>Here is what the new U.S. electoral map would look like:</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeUMHd4s9gr8z2ASw2xjxspkj7x7lDDKzaDUHYh_dnA-pBjhP3diG5NHL-ZHTeH13dP-ohoSwrIKKpvosGOSNVGgODh0gsOA0rosS2V4t0KvXqiJpNpe4eOnfjj9W2Pasjwn80/s1600/US-Canada.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeUMHd4s9gr8z2ASw2xjxspkj7x7lDDKzaDUHYh_dnA-pBjhP3diG5NHL-ZHTeH13dP-ohoSwrIKKpvosGOSNVGgODh0gsOA0rosS2V4t0KvXqiJpNpe4eOnfjj9W2Pasjwn80/s400/US-Canada.gif" /></a></div>
<p>New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Saskatchewan would all get the minimum 3 electoral votes in presidential elections, meaning that they would have one at-large congressman representing the entire <strike>province</strike> state, but 2 senators, the same as big states like California, Texas, Florida, New York, Ontario, Illinois and Ohio.</p>
<p>American states have to sacrifice 44 seats in the House of Representatives to make room for the 10 new ex-Canadian states. And their relative share of representation in the Senate drops from two percent to one-and-two-thirds percent. Specifically, the following states would lose representation under the current U.S. congressional apportionment formula to make way for Canadian seats in the House of Representatives:</p>
<ul><li>California -6
<li>Texas -4
<li>Florida -3
<li>New York -3
<li>Georgia -2
<li>Illinois -2
<li>Michigan -2
<li>Pennsylvania -2
<li>Alabama -1
<li>Arizona -1
<li>Colorado -1
<li>Indiana -1
<li>Iowa -1
<li>Kentucky -1
<li>Maryland -1
<li>Massachusetts -1
<li>Minnesota -1
<li>Nebraska -1
<li>Nevada -1
<li>New Jersey -1
<li>North Carolina -1
<li>Rhode Island -1
<li>South Carolina -1
<li>Tennessee -1
<li>Virginia -1
<li>Washington -1
<li>West Virginia -1
<li>Wisconsin -1</li></ul>
<p>To win a presidential election 280 electoral votes would be required (up from 270), due to the electoral college growing by 20 due to new senators.</p>
<p>It would be increasingly difficult for Republicans to win the presidency. <a href="http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201207/1446-obama-remains-extremely-popular-canada">Polls suggest Democrats would be the heavy favourites in all provinces in presidential elections</a>, even winning Alberta by about 40 percentage points. If one is generous, we could say the provinces would become 9 blue states and 1 swing state.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3hOcuQ12VU5IpfIkFo0lTNIfSqIv1JWGF2EygIi2em3mR1B46x6KtZTsmlRcpTCNAM3R9zVrN0dtAMdvQWyPszSqmx0lAvWkaVfygufGVODme5v8U6KNGmDrXjQCvKBUvEyM2/s1600/US-Canada+-+coloured.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3hOcuQ12VU5IpfIkFo0lTNIfSqIv1JWGF2EygIi2em3mR1B46x6KtZTsmlRcpTCNAM3R9zVrN0dtAMdvQWyPszSqmx0lAvWkaVfygufGVODme5v8U6KNGmDrXjQCvKBUvEyM2/s400/US-Canada+-+coloured.png" /></a></div>
<p>This would mean the Democrat would start with 259 electoral votes in the bag, to 173 for the Republican, with 126 swing votes. If one gives Democrats credit for Pennsylvania, a state they've not lost since 1988, they start with 277 votes and the Republican would have to win every single swing state in order to carry the election.</p>
<p>I sure do love fun with maps.</p>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-21792185451833568222014-02-03T08:05:00.000-04:002014-02-03T08:05:00.144-04:00Fun with maps<p>On Saturday afternoon, the CBC's Dan McHardie tweeted out a cool map on Twitter. I went into fun-with-maps overdrive...</p>
<div class="storify"><iframe src="//storify.com/nbpolitico/fun-with-maps/embed" width="100%" height=750 frameborder=no allowTransparency=true></iframe><script src="//storify.com/nbpolitico/fun-with-maps.js" type="text/javascript" language="javascript"></script><noscript>[<a href="//storify.com/nbpolitico/fun-with-maps" target="_blank">View the story "Fun with maps" on Storify</a>]</noscript></div>
<p>I haven't quite shaken the bug. Here are a couple more which I find highly interesting.</p>
First Canadian provinces as American states with comparable GDP (PEI and the territories have economies far smaller than any U.S. state so they're not labeled):
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheloejhyphenhyphenyRoZU7Y2NQ8KWyccyfBf_OMT9k5-cSOFTMda7Exca4e0m5jnhO5OjRMf7HyftevCSelePRlllVyub5aHw45EGAQlU-qu9cec6lAdeYRIVOtCVhCrC8v-BafKymzJTk/s1600/map_e.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheloejhyphenhyphenyRoZU7Y2NQ8KWyccyfBf_OMT9k5-cSOFTMda7Exca4e0m5jnhO5OjRMf7HyftevCSelePRlllVyub5aHw45EGAQlU-qu9cec6lAdeYRIVOtCVhCrC8v-BafKymzJTk/s400/map_e.gif" /></a></div>
<p>Then Canadian provinces as American states with comparable GDP-per-capita ratios. This one was fascinating. Six of the 13 provinces and territories are at about the same level or richer than Delaware, the richest American state (as measured by GDP-per-capita). Even Canada's "poor" provinces New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and PEI hold up pretty well. New Brunswick lines up with California. Nova Scotians and P.E. Islanders are on average richer than Texans.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt7fUpbHt6zOelh3boNHKspxktjIG2n4PCksyr5RCFGPxJ_C2cYu4Mu_x5AGedU6JGeFIWPAsiM61_jaobGzpxdDZCrcoj5oC7sZfOyj9ph_-3IClLwx3JBBSXLpuW1RuXIMgO/s1600/map_e.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt7fUpbHt6zOelh3boNHKspxktjIG2n4PCksyr5RCFGPxJ_C2cYu4Mu_x5AGedU6JGeFIWPAsiM61_jaobGzpxdDZCrcoj5oC7sZfOyj9ph_-3IClLwx3JBBSXLpuW1RuXIMgO/s400/map_e.gif" /></a></div>
<p>Fun with maps is almost as fun as fun with numbers!</p>
<p><i>Here is a revised version of the first map, with an explanation of what it is in case it finds itself floating in the internet without its explanatory tweet:</i></P>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqRVVKgGfSbdZgM4jGPRfmrbyTwxVIcT7vVxCN6opHe9gDjUGDVNpQHHkWtzt2LHAZFCuRheNMlHGGyhf5g-lOZWTLkMKJEIsHlMQsQfq1BgwkfgbzoSqYcdGXSksxAELH4KEQ/s1600/Bfax9xdCMAEmTQ0.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqRVVKgGfSbdZgM4jGPRfmrbyTwxVIcT7vVxCN6opHe9gDjUGDVNpQHHkWtzt2LHAZFCuRheNMlHGGyhf5g-lOZWTLkMKJEIsHlMQsQfq1BgwkfgbzoSqYcdGXSksxAELH4KEQ/s400/Bfax9xdCMAEmTQ0.png" /></a></div>nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.com0