Saturday, September 09, 2006

Undecideds (Part III) and other changes

Kings East

Ok, so here is a seat I thought was in relatively safe Liberal territory. There was a lot of anger here when Lord cut the Department of Agriculture in 2000. There were huge protests on the street, etc, etc. Who came in to lead those protests? Then-Agriculture Critic for the Official Opposition, Shawn Graham.

So, this I thought, gave the Liberals an edge. Then in 2003, the NDP got a record result in this riding with 996 votes (there next best being 617 way back in 1991). The mode was around the mid-300s. They managed this high score in 2003 with a candidate with big name recognition. Those NDP votes I suspect will largely slip back to the Liberals.

So here are the results since 1987 (as far back as I have data):

1987 Lib by 1925
1991 PC by 28 votes (CoR had 2098)
1995 Lib by 34 votes
1999 PC by 1890 votes
2003 Lib by 436 votes

Edging out a win when CoR has over 2000 votes pretty impressive for a Tory, though I suspect there was a bit of a boost becase PC leader Dennis Cochrane was in the seat next door.

With the NDP likely to drop to at least 500, if not traditional levels in the 300s, I would say the margin of victory for 2003 could be viewed as 600 (some going to the Tories and others staying home).

However, with the agriculture cuts being six years old, all of the comments I have gotten from people saying this seat with go Conservative and the apparent momentum for Lord in Anglophone New Brunswick, I will move this to leans PC.

Quispamsis

This was the nail biter in 2003. Brenda Fowlie was re-elected by 18 votes and Lord delayed the swearing in of his cabinet and recalling of the legislature to wait for the recount here. Conventional wisdom is that Fowlie cannot be re-elected and I would be very happy to obey to calls of many commenters and move this to the Liberal column but my gut has been unsure.

First, this riding has changed from "Kennebecasis" by shedding its rural areas. Let's see what effect this has:

2003 results: PC 3265, Lib 3247, NDP 970
2003 results (redistributed): PC 3031, Lib 3028, NDP 847

Fowlie still wins but by only 3 votes!

Her opponent last time was a popular male town councillor, her opponent last time is a popular female town councillor. Does that take away a bit of an edge due to advantage with women voters?

She was in cabinet and got the boot? Does that hurt her? She is back in the cabinet, do people want a minister for MLA and the perks that can come with it?

I am really torn on this. At the end of the day, every commenter on this race has said Fowlie will lose so I will give them credit and push this to leans Liberal.

Miramichi Centre

This district lost two polls and the result is a net loss of 87 votes for the Liberals but it is a propotionate loss, the Liberal vote slips marginly from 49.6% to 49.5%.

Past results (#s from 1987):
1974 - PC
1978 - Lib
1982 - PC
1987 - Lib 4120, PC 3334, NDP 214
1991 - Lib 2583, PC 2573, CoR 2252, NDP 315
1995 - Lib 4081, PC 3803, NDP 353
1999 - PC 4076, Lib 2975, NDP 853
2003 - Lib 3763, PC 3149, NDP 663

The riding does have a bit of a traditional PC edge though it is clearing a swing riding. I have received a tip that John Foran has not been too well received at the door here though so I will take that as the edge. If someone can tell me otherwise, I may switch this back but, for now, I'll call it leans PC.

Other changes

Moncton East - as much as I'd like to do otherwise, I am ready now to call this safe PC.

Bathurst - I keep hearing that this is a competitive race. Though the seat has never gone Conservative and this is just a re-match of 2003, I am going to move it from safe Liberal to leans Liberal. Nancy McKay is once again a very strong candidate and auto insurance is not as big of an issue.

7 comments:

Spinks said...

The pundits say Fowlie will lose but I don't think she will, nbpolitico. (although for her many faux pas, she probably deserves to)I don't think the Liberal candidate is strong enough against her this time.

Miramichi Centre, I've got to hand it to the Liberals. Although it has gone PC a couple of times, it's a pretty Liberal seat. I can't see John Foran losing it.

Bathurst - It's been said a monkey could run for the Liberals there and win it and Brian Kenny is no monkey. Liberal win easily.

nbpolitico said...

Spinks - your thinking seems to be the same as mine but in the case of the latter two, I was trying to trim down my growing lead for the Liberals. I don't know how you can arrive at 31 for the PCs without giving them at least Miramichi Centre.

Spinks said...

Call it creative accounting...and of course like everyone I'm guessing.

BTW, kudos to you for dedicating this blog to predictions. I've noticed the various blogs have done a really good job with zero coordination in offering little duplication and something different at each one.

Anonymous said...

Objective Liberal(?)
Kings East-
I prety well agree with your analysis of the riding except that I would call it too close to call .It is though a riding where local issues more than most ridings may have more impact. A possible sleeper issue is the natural gas discovery in Penobsquis(between Moncton and Sussex) This discovery has been rumored to be bigger than Sable Island. There is a proposal to ship all of this gas to the US through the northeast pipeline thus filling in for the gas that did not materialize of Sable Island.Neither party seems interested in keeping our gas here for our use . The CBC in the riding profile did raise the issue and interviewed Rob Moir, the federal NDP candidate in the last federal election who championed NB natural gas for NB'ers and had a record NDP vote in Fundy Royal. Rogers has also given the story some coverage but the Irving /lng/fuel oil/media seem to be not very interested in talking about competition for there boss's lng project.The Liberal candidate (yes my candidate)has made acess locally to this gas a key part of his campaign with little response from the provincial campaign . I think it is an issue which deserves a lot more attention provincally and has not got it Something that could make us the little Alberta of the east should not be given away so cheaply to the US with almost no discussion. So watch Kings East election night.
(This old computer fearin fogey apologizes if he was too wordy or partisan.. My prediction L-27 PC-27 and one tie. Every time I go through the ridings one by one it always comes out 28 to 27 for one party or the other so I am going against statistical probabilities and say this election will be decided by a coin toss)

Anonymous said...

NB politico... I'd like to make you aware that not only Bouctouche is behind the PC Candidate for Kent... But also Ste-Marie and St-Paul which attribute the Metz fiasco to Mr. Graham and also some regions around Bouctouche Baie and Ste-Anne... If you look at the riding this is more than 60% (maybe more) of the voting public... So where is Mr. Graham safe in his new riding? Maybe Rexton (where he is from) and Elsipogtog (Big Cove)... Why do you think he has visited Bouctouche 5 times in the last 2 weeks? I saw him here yesterday morning with nobody around him except for a few... Lots of momentum behind Mr Saulnier's campaign...

Spinks said...

If Shawn Graham loses his seat, it's the story of the night. With that being said, I doubt it will be the story of the night. A Graham has held that seat for what seems like forever. Leaders often visit their own ridings a fair amount. I don't read anything into that unless they're there every single day. Unless Graham self destructs this week (and I doubt that), his riding is safe.

moose182 said...

Bathurst!!! is crazy if they vote Bryan Kenny!! he didnt nothing at all in the 3 years hes been the MLA.If you look at all what has been built in the city over the last 2 years who got it there NANCY MCKAY who even tho isnt in power as mla has worked hand and hand with the lord team to get something going in bathurst. If bathurst votes kenny look for another 4 years of nothing done in the city!