11:08 - CNN calls North Dakota for Santorum with Romney running third. This was thought to be a Romney vs. Paul contest. If Santorum also wins Ohio (where he's been leading for sometime now) this may be a very, very good night for him. However, if Newt stays in and does well enough to win or split the vote next week in Alabama and Mississippi, then it could quickly mute Sanoturm's momentum.
10:24 - Santorum giving the economic populist, anti-debt message he gave the night he won the Iowa caucuses. If he had been giving this speech in between he probably would have won Michigan and cleaned up tonight.
10:01 - Twenty minutes after other networks, CNN calls Oklahoma for Santorum as an excuse to break away from rambling Newt speech.
9:12 - Don't think I've seen this before. Santorum wins independents by larger margin than Republicans in Tennessee. Over Romney 35-30 among GOP, 35-24 among independents.
9:01 - Mitt swamps competition with 70% in home state Mass according to exit polls. Santorum leads fairly decisively in Oklahoma and Tennessee exit polls. Battle for second between Newt and Mitt in Tenn, while Mitt looks safe for second in Oklahoma.
8:38 - To me, this stat explains the whole Republican primary race. In Ohio Mitt Romney won the 19% of the electorate who are working women by a convincing 45-33; Santorum won all other demographics combined 39-38.
8:32 - Ohio exit polls show Mitt ahead of Rick 40-36, Newt waaaay back tied with Paul at 12-11. If this holds bad night for both Rick and Newt.
8:16 - Early real results from Virginia: Romney 59, Paul 41.
8 p.m. - CNN calls Georgia due to Newt leading by 21 points in exit poll. Not yet ready to call Virginia for Romney. Romney and Paul are the only people on the ballot in Virginia. Does this mean Paul is in the 40s / has held Mitt to less than 20? That was one of my nine things to watch and could/should create a lot of chatter about dissatisfaction with Mitt.
7:31 p.m. Atlantic - Higher evangelical turnout in OH, TN, etc good sign for Santorum who late polls showed was in a lot of trouble?
Before we get started, here are my predictions that I posted on Saturday after the Washington caucus results came in:
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
Saturday, March 03, 2012
Super Tuesday preview
With Mitt Romney's easy win in Washington state, the narrative of the race is framing quite well for him heading into Super Tuesday. Just a couple of weeks ago, I was in the camp of many others in suggesting that Romney was in real trouble.
Here are 9 things to watch on Tuesday:
Mitt's margin in Virginia
Romney will almost certainly win Virginia in his two-man race against Ron Paul. The question is the margin and how it is perceived. The optics of Ron Paul holding Romney to 59-41 are much worse than 61-39. A "close" race here would play into the narrative that Romney can't seal the deal, even when the race is winnowed to he and a "fringe" candidate.
Can Newt win outside Georgia?
Recent polls show Newt Gingrich winning by a large margin in his home state of Georgia. But he won't likely get much momentum or credit for doing it because of his own framing of home state wins being a given. He's also focused on Tennessee where a win could change the narrative around his campaign and set him up for a come back in Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama that vote the following week. If he can only win in his home state, then it is hard to see how his campaign continues.
Can Mitt win in the south?
Romney is favoured in Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia and Idaho. Though he won in Florida, he hasn't won in the more traditional conservative south in either 2008 or 2012. Despite momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, he was crushed in South Carolina. Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma all vote on Super Tuesday. Wins in any of these states would end the narrative that Mitt can't win the base and put him well on the path to sealing the deal.
Who places second in Oklahoma?
Rick Santorum is heavily favoured according to polls in this state. If Newt places second here, it is a sign of life for his campaign. If Romney does, it is a sign of strength outside of his comfort zone.
Who places second in Georgia?
Newt is heavily favoured to win Georgia. Romney is making a last minute campaign stop here in the hopes that he can place second and therefore show strength in the south.
Will Paul win a state?
Paul has a chance at winning North Dakota and/or Alaska and an outside chance in Idaho (where Romney is favoured). We've heard this before in Maine and Washington, but Ron Paul could rack up his first statewide win on Tuesday.
Who wins the night?
There are 10 contests. Romney is favoured in 4, Newt and Santorum in 1 each. Four others are toss ups. It is highly unlikely that any candidate could sweep those four remaining states (Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio and Tennessee) which means Romney will win or tie in number of states won - the question is can he take one of North Dakota and Alaska, and Ohio and win a majority?
Do either Gingrich or Santorum drop out?
If Gingrich wins Georgia just narrowly and doesn't come close anywhere else, it is hard to see how he can continue. If Santorum doesn't win Ohio, I'd say he is also in trouble, unless he takes both Oklahoma and Tennessee, and places a strong second in Ohio and Georgia which seems unlikely. However, would either of them drop out and endorse the other in a last ditch effort to stop Romney? This also seems unlikely.
Who wins Ohio?
Though Georgia has the most delegates at stake, Ohio is the focus because it is more competitive. (Though I'm surprised there isn't more attention for Tennessee which has almost as many delegates as well - these states have 76, 66 and 58 respectively.) The media focus will be almost exclusively on this race. If Santorum wins, he'll again be portrayed as the man who might beat Romney, if he loses it is hard to see how he regains momentum. If Romney wins and Gingrich finishes respectfully in addition to winning Georgia and Tennessee, it could set the stage for a major rebound.
Here are 9 things to watch on Tuesday:
Mitt's margin in Virginia
Romney will almost certainly win Virginia in his two-man race against Ron Paul. The question is the margin and how it is perceived. The optics of Ron Paul holding Romney to 59-41 are much worse than 61-39. A "close" race here would play into the narrative that Romney can't seal the deal, even when the race is winnowed to he and a "fringe" candidate.
Can Newt win outside Georgia?
Recent polls show Newt Gingrich winning by a large margin in his home state of Georgia. But he won't likely get much momentum or credit for doing it because of his own framing of home state wins being a given. He's also focused on Tennessee where a win could change the narrative around his campaign and set him up for a come back in Kansas, Mississippi and Alabama that vote the following week. If he can only win in his home state, then it is hard to see how his campaign continues.
Can Mitt win in the south?
Romney is favoured in Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia and Idaho. Though he won in Florida, he hasn't won in the more traditional conservative south in either 2008 or 2012. Despite momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire, he was crushed in South Carolina. Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma all vote on Super Tuesday. Wins in any of these states would end the narrative that Mitt can't win the base and put him well on the path to sealing the deal.
Who places second in Oklahoma?
Rick Santorum is heavily favoured according to polls in this state. If Newt places second here, it is a sign of life for his campaign. If Romney does, it is a sign of strength outside of his comfort zone.
Who places second in Georgia?
Newt is heavily favoured to win Georgia. Romney is making a last minute campaign stop here in the hopes that he can place second and therefore show strength in the south.
Will Paul win a state?
Paul has a chance at winning North Dakota and/or Alaska and an outside chance in Idaho (where Romney is favoured). We've heard this before in Maine and Washington, but Ron Paul could rack up his first statewide win on Tuesday.
Who wins the night?
There are 10 contests. Romney is favoured in 4, Newt and Santorum in 1 each. Four others are toss ups. It is highly unlikely that any candidate could sweep those four remaining states (Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio and Tennessee) which means Romney will win or tie in number of states won - the question is can he take one of North Dakota and Alaska, and Ohio and win a majority?
Do either Gingrich or Santorum drop out?
If Gingrich wins Georgia just narrowly and doesn't come close anywhere else, it is hard to see how he can continue. If Santorum doesn't win Ohio, I'd say he is also in trouble, unless he takes both Oklahoma and Tennessee, and places a strong second in Ohio and Georgia which seems unlikely. However, would either of them drop out and endorse the other in a last ditch effort to stop Romney? This also seems unlikely.
Who wins Ohio?
Though Georgia has the most delegates at stake, Ohio is the focus because it is more competitive. (Though I'm surprised there isn't more attention for Tennessee which has almost as many delegates as well - these states have 76, 66 and 58 respectively.) The media focus will be almost exclusively on this race. If Santorum wins, he'll again be portrayed as the man who might beat Romney, if he loses it is hard to see how he regains momentum. If Romney wins and Gingrich finishes respectfully in addition to winning Georgia and Tennessee, it could set the stage for a major rebound.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Unelectable Mitt redux
On the morn of the Florida primary, if the polls are to be believed, Mitt Romney will win convincingly and therefore likely wrap up the nomination. In and of itself, Florida might not be enought to seal the deal but it is followed by a February which has only a handful of contests all of which Romney is well positioned to win. By the time Super Tuesday rolls around, there won't be enough air left for others to be in fighting form.
But just in case Floridians focused on electability are reading this blog before they vote (hahaha), I want to restress my view that Mitt Romney is the least electable Republican in the field.
While it is true that polls now show Romney in a dead head with Obama nationally and these same polls Newt Gingrich far, far behind him. It misses an important point.
Newt has already had all of his dirty laundry aired repeatedly by Mitt Romney and his super PAC. All of the damage that will be done to Gingirch has been done.
If Romney is the nominee, the Obama campaign will destroy him with his own words. He has taken the opposite position on virtually every issue. A smart Obama campaign would target the deep south with ads showing Romney in his own words saying he favours abortion rights and opposes the record of Ronald Reagan. This would so depress grassroots conservative turnout that the south would be competitive for the first time in a generation. Add to that that Obama's operation massively increase Black turnout in the south in 2008 and that the enthusiasm of those voters has not diminished, unlike other demographics that fueled Obama's 2008.
Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, may or may not be competitive nationally, but his win in the South Carolina proved that he has the ability to excite the Republican base and get them to come out to vote.
Rick Santorum, as hard as it is for me to say, is probably the most electable of the bunch. While his awkwardness in New Hampshire that caused him to blow his post-Iowa momentum gives me pause, the fact is that he did manage to win a Democratic-leaning swing state in 2 of 3 attempts. A state that resembles demographically a number of other swing states in the so-called rust belt. And he would obviously be very well positioned to sweep the south.
So let's take a look at the electoral map. First, these would be the states which I would argue are locked-in for the respective parties regardless of the Republican nominee.
Here Obama carries 196 electoral votes on the west coast and the northeast, while the Republican wins in Appalachia (+ Arkansas and Louisiana which behaved like the Appalachian states in 2008 by giving Obama less votes than they'd given John Kerry), as well as the strong Republican states in the plains.
If the Obama campaign is smart, and they destroy Romney's credibility among social conservatives, these voters will stay home or vote for a third party candidate. That would cripple the Republicans in the south. Even if we give Mitt the benefit of the doubt and say he could carry Arizona, Colorado and Nevada (due to higher Mormon turnout), Iowa (due to his strong organization and enthusiasm built there during the caucus), Michigan (due to his roots there) and New Hampshire. It would still be a blow out:
While it is conceivable that Mitt might be able to salvage things in Alabama and Texas (and maybe Mississippi but I doubt it), those wins would be offset but just-as-likely loses in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Now Newt could ensure enthusiasm in the conservative heartland but would likely lose all swing states. Nonetheless, this leaves him far better positioned than Mitt. Under this scenario Newt would lose the presidency by just 30 electoral votes, compared to 111 for Mitt.
The last map I'll show you is definitely a best case scenario for Rick Santorum. I am not saying this is the likely outcome were he to win the nomination. It does show however, that he has a much clearer path to victory than these other knuckleheads.
This shows Santorum crushing Obama 338 to 200, which would be the worst Democratic defeat since 1988. That probably wouldn't happen. But even if Santorum lost Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin from the above map, he'd still win by a margin of 299 to 239. He could then also lose either Ohio or his home state of Pennsylvania and pull out a win. Or lose them both and hold Virginia.
If Republicans in Florida want to continue to buy into the completely insane groupthink that Mitt Romney's middle name is Electability, then we'll be hearing a lot of this over at Obama HQ in Chicago.
But just in case Floridians focused on electability are reading this blog before they vote (hahaha), I want to restress my view that Mitt Romney is the least electable Republican in the field.
While it is true that polls now show Romney in a dead head with Obama nationally and these same polls Newt Gingrich far, far behind him. It misses an important point.
Newt has already had all of his dirty laundry aired repeatedly by Mitt Romney and his super PAC. All of the damage that will be done to Gingirch has been done.
If Romney is the nominee, the Obama campaign will destroy him with his own words. He has taken the opposite position on virtually every issue. A smart Obama campaign would target the deep south with ads showing Romney in his own words saying he favours abortion rights and opposes the record of Ronald Reagan. This would so depress grassroots conservative turnout that the south would be competitive for the first time in a generation. Add to that that Obama's operation massively increase Black turnout in the south in 2008 and that the enthusiasm of those voters has not diminished, unlike other demographics that fueled Obama's 2008.
Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, may or may not be competitive nationally, but his win in the South Carolina proved that he has the ability to excite the Republican base and get them to come out to vote.
Rick Santorum, as hard as it is for me to say, is probably the most electable of the bunch. While his awkwardness in New Hampshire that caused him to blow his post-Iowa momentum gives me pause, the fact is that he did manage to win a Democratic-leaning swing state in 2 of 3 attempts. A state that resembles demographically a number of other swing states in the so-called rust belt. And he would obviously be very well positioned to sweep the south.
So let's take a look at the electoral map. First, these would be the states which I would argue are locked-in for the respective parties regardless of the Republican nominee.
Here Obama carries 196 electoral votes on the west coast and the northeast, while the Republican wins in Appalachia (+ Arkansas and Louisiana which behaved like the Appalachian states in 2008 by giving Obama less votes than they'd given John Kerry), as well as the strong Republican states in the plains.
If the Obama campaign is smart, and they destroy Romney's credibility among social conservatives, these voters will stay home or vote for a third party candidate. That would cripple the Republicans in the south. Even if we give Mitt the benefit of the doubt and say he could carry Arizona, Colorado and Nevada (due to higher Mormon turnout), Iowa (due to his strong organization and enthusiasm built there during the caucus), Michigan (due to his roots there) and New Hampshire. It would still be a blow out:
While it is conceivable that Mitt might be able to salvage things in Alabama and Texas (and maybe Mississippi but I doubt it), those wins would be offset but just-as-likely loses in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Now Newt could ensure enthusiasm in the conservative heartland but would likely lose all swing states. Nonetheless, this leaves him far better positioned than Mitt. Under this scenario Newt would lose the presidency by just 30 electoral votes, compared to 111 for Mitt.
The last map I'll show you is definitely a best case scenario for Rick Santorum. I am not saying this is the likely outcome were he to win the nomination. It does show however, that he has a much clearer path to victory than these other knuckleheads.
This shows Santorum crushing Obama 338 to 200, which would be the worst Democratic defeat since 1988. That probably wouldn't happen. But even if Santorum lost Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin from the above map, he'd still win by a margin of 299 to 239. He could then also lose either Ohio or his home state of Pennsylvania and pull out a win. Or lose them both and hold Virginia.
If Republicans in Florida want to continue to buy into the completely insane groupthink that Mitt Romney's middle name is Electability, then we'll be hearing a lot of this over at Obama HQ in Chicago.
Saturday, January 21, 2012
First in the South liveblog
8:11 p.m. Atlantic - NBC has called South Carolina for Gingrich; other networks holding off. Gingrich leads Romney by 9 points in exit polls.
8:12 - CNN is talking about how Romney may be better off in Florida because it is a more diverse state. They seem to forget that independents can vote in South Carolina, while the Florida primary is closed - only Republicans can vote there. Therefore, while Florida may be more "diverse", is Republican primary electorate may not be.
8:29 - In my mind, Santorum's campaign is dead. I predicted that this would happen if he wasted time in New Hampshire as he did. CNN's John King is reporting though that Santorum's campaign has a crazy plan to run through Florida, hope for Newt Gingrich to win there and force Romney out of the race. In this universe they think that the establishment might turn to Santorum to try to stop Newt. While the establishment may be desperate to stop Newt, I suspect they would be more likely to try to get a Christie/Daniels/Bush to get in rather than back unelectable Santorum.
8:51 - Did anyone else think that Santorum's exclusive interview on CNN about how he would stay in even after finishing third in South Carolina sounded a lot like Huntsman's exclusive interview on CNN about how he would stay in even after finishing third in New Hampshire? I guess Santorum will drop out in 6 days. Who will he endorse?
9:38 - Interesting that Newt's win is so decisive that Mitt is as close to Paul in 4th as he is to Newt in first.
8:12 - CNN is talking about how Romney may be better off in Florida because it is a more diverse state. They seem to forget that independents can vote in South Carolina, while the Florida primary is closed - only Republicans can vote there. Therefore, while Florida may be more "diverse", is Republican primary electorate may not be.
8:29 - In my mind, Santorum's campaign is dead. I predicted that this would happen if he wasted time in New Hampshire as he did. CNN's John King is reporting though that Santorum's campaign has a crazy plan to run through Florida, hope for Newt Gingrich to win there and force Romney out of the race. In this universe they think that the establishment might turn to Santorum to try to stop Newt. While the establishment may be desperate to stop Newt, I suspect they would be more likely to try to get a Christie/Daniels/Bush to get in rather than back unelectable Santorum.
8:51 - Did anyone else think that Santorum's exclusive interview on CNN about how he would stay in even after finishing third in South Carolina sounded a lot like Huntsman's exclusive interview on CNN about how he would stay in even after finishing third in New Hampshire? I guess Santorum will drop out in 6 days. Who will he endorse?
9:38 - Interesting that Newt's win is so decisive that Mitt is as close to Paul in 4th as he is to Newt in first.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
First In The Nation liveblog
8:33 p.m. Atlantic - Sorry for the delay in getting started. My sincere apology to my one reader (Hi Mom!). Very early returns show Romney heading toward high-30s, which would be a big win. Exit polls show a near three-way tie between Romney-Paul-Huntsman with Huntsman in the back, he needed to win indies to place second in my opinion, so it could be disappointing for him as the expectations game in the past 48-hours seemed to be that he'd place second or a very strong third.
8:40 - Nate Silver says that the early results are from areas Romney won in 2008, so he isn't likely to stay in the mid-high 30s.
9:00 - The instant all of the polls close, CNN calls it for Romney. Not a surprise. Tonight was about who places second between Paul-Huntsman, who places fourth between Gingrich-Santorum and how big Romney's margin is.
9:11 - Interesting tidbits from exit polls: Huntsman wins big among Democrats cross-voting in the primary but they make up only 4% of the electorate. Romney wins Republicans by a huge margin as well. Independents are split between the three major candidates, but Paul wins. Romney wins among tea party supporters which to me seems like kind of a big deal.
9:21 - Huntsman personally comes out to talk to CNN to say he's staying in the race even if he finishes third. Worried that the chatter was going to quickly turn to him having to drop out?
9:29 - Mitt giving victory speech. Paul second, Huntsman third. Tight race between Gingrich and Santorum for fourth but not worth staying up for. Good night!
8:40 - Nate Silver says that the early results are from areas Romney won in 2008, so he isn't likely to stay in the mid-high 30s.
9:00 - The instant all of the polls close, CNN calls it for Romney. Not a surprise. Tonight was about who places second between Paul-Huntsman, who places fourth between Gingrich-Santorum and how big Romney's margin is.
9:11 - Interesting tidbits from exit polls: Huntsman wins big among Democrats cross-voting in the primary but they make up only 4% of the electorate. Romney wins Republicans by a huge margin as well. Independents are split between the three major candidates, but Paul wins. Romney wins among tea party supporters which to me seems like kind of a big deal.
9:21 - Huntsman personally comes out to talk to CNN to say he's staying in the race even if he finishes third. Worried that the chatter was going to quickly turn to him having to drop out?
9:29 - Mitt giving victory speech. Paul second, Huntsman third. Tight race between Gingrich and Santorum for fourth but not worth staying up for. Good night!
Thursday, January 05, 2012
My Perry-Huntsman conspiracy theory
Rick Perry surprised a lot of people with his decision to stay in the presidential race after the Iowa caucus, including his own staff. Nate Silver says that this is because he either a) is doing it for deeply personal reasons; or b) has been shown a strategic path to come back and win.
Let me expand upon a third theory that I hinted at on Twitter yesterday:
Mary Kaye Huntsman and Anita Perry have been friends for years, having met when their husbands were both Republican governors. Since their husbands have both become presidential candidates, their friendship has grown and they talk almost daily.
If Jon Huntsman does well in New Hampshire, he may be well positioned to do well in South Carolina. If Jon Huntsman does poorly in New Hampshire, he will have to drop out of the race. Should the former happen, Rick Perry could drop out of the race after New Hampshire but before South Carolina to endorse the surging Huntsman, arguing he too is a solidly conservative guy focused on jobs with a conservative record as governor. If Huntsman drops out, he could endorse Perry lending credibility to his campaign as well as Huntsman's suprisingly credible South Carolina organization.
Sound crazy? Both women have shown that they are among their husbands' most trusted and influential political advisors. If Perry's campaign in South Carolina is largely focused on tearing down Romney, Santorum and Gingrich and making the argument that you need a governor who has a conservative record, he could be doing it not only for himself but as a proxy for Huntsman.
Let me expand upon a third theory that I hinted at on Twitter yesterday:
Mary Kaye Huntsman and Anita Perry have been friends for years, having met when their husbands were both Republican governors. Since their husbands have both become presidential candidates, their friendship has grown and they talk almost daily.
If Jon Huntsman does well in New Hampshire, he may be well positioned to do well in South Carolina. If Jon Huntsman does poorly in New Hampshire, he will have to drop out of the race. Should the former happen, Rick Perry could drop out of the race after New Hampshire but before South Carolina to endorse the surging Huntsman, arguing he too is a solidly conservative guy focused on jobs with a conservative record as governor. If Huntsman drops out, he could endorse Perry lending credibility to his campaign as well as Huntsman's suprisingly credible South Carolina organization.
Sound crazy? Both women have shown that they are among their husbands' most trusted and influential political advisors. If Perry's campaign in South Carolina is largely focused on tearing down Romney, Santorum and Gingrich and making the argument that you need a governor who has a conservative record, he could be doing it not only for himself but as a proxy for Huntsman.
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Gaming out New Hampshire
Last night, as the Iowa caucus results were trickling in, I posted my predictions for the New Hampshire primary. I posted two because of one important variable: Buddy Roemer. The former Louisiana governor has been excluded from all debates so far but recently scored 3% in a poll of New Hampshire and will be in the upcoming debates if he can grow that to 5% in one of the slew of polls that are likely to come. If he were to get into the debate, I suspect he would pick up a handful of votes in the primary, likely at the expense of Jon Huntsman.
So here is my prediction explained:
Romney: 32%
This is the exact share of the vote he got in New Hampshire in 2008. He also scored a repeat of his 2008 result in Iowa (25% both yesterday and four years ago). I think that the net effect of yesterday's Iowa result (Romney winning just barely over a surging Santorum) will have little effect on Romney's standing in New Hampshire, no bump but no anti-bump either. I do think though that the Newt Gingrich/New Hampshire Union Leader tag team against Mitt will have an effect and likely will see him dragged down from the mid-40s he's been seeing in polls there recently.
Huntsman: 20%*
The respected political observer Nate Silver opined that the best Iowa result for Huntsman was what we saw last night. Huntsman currently averages 10% in New Hampshire polls and can likely expect to enjoy a mini-Santorum effect for having worked the hardest in New Hampshire, especially with votes being shaken lose from Romney by the Newt/UL assault.
Gingrich: 17%
Newt is going to tear down Mitt Romney and be re-endorsed "every damn day" by the Union Leader. He should be able to parlay this, along with a fourth place double-digit showing in Iowa after having been written off, into a strong position in New Hampshire.
Paul: 17%
Paul currently averages 19% in polls of New Hampshire. A win in Iowa may have allowed room for growth but I suspect he keeps to his core support of 15-20%.
Santorum: 13%
Santorum has barely registered in most New Hampshire polls, but I suspect he will get a surge here similar to what Mike Huckabee got in 2008 under similar circumstances.
Perry and Bachmann: less than 1% between them
While I expected Perry to drop out and Bachmann to continue, the opposite happened today. Regardless, both of their names remain on the New Hampshire primary ballot and both of them will get less than 1%
Roemer: ~0% or 6%*
Buddy isn't likely to play here very much unless he gets the exposure of a debate. If he does, I forecast he gets 6% mostly at the expense of Huntsman.
So here is my prediction explained:
Romney: 32%
This is the exact share of the vote he got in New Hampshire in 2008. He also scored a repeat of his 2008 result in Iowa (25% both yesterday and four years ago). I think that the net effect of yesterday's Iowa result (Romney winning just barely over a surging Santorum) will have little effect on Romney's standing in New Hampshire, no bump but no anti-bump either. I do think though that the Newt Gingrich/New Hampshire Union Leader tag team against Mitt will have an effect and likely will see him dragged down from the mid-40s he's been seeing in polls there recently.
Huntsman: 20%*
The respected political observer Nate Silver opined that the best Iowa result for Huntsman was what we saw last night. Huntsman currently averages 10% in New Hampshire polls and can likely expect to enjoy a mini-Santorum effect for having worked the hardest in New Hampshire, especially with votes being shaken lose from Romney by the Newt/UL assault.
Gingrich: 17%
Newt is going to tear down Mitt Romney and be re-endorsed "every damn day" by the Union Leader. He should be able to parlay this, along with a fourth place double-digit showing in Iowa after having been written off, into a strong position in New Hampshire.
Paul: 17%
Paul currently averages 19% in polls of New Hampshire. A win in Iowa may have allowed room for growth but I suspect he keeps to his core support of 15-20%.
Santorum: 13%
Santorum has barely registered in most New Hampshire polls, but I suspect he will get a surge here similar to what Mike Huckabee got in 2008 under similar circumstances.
Perry and Bachmann: less than 1% between them
While I expected Perry to drop out and Bachmann to continue, the opposite happened today. Regardless, both of their names remain on the New Hampshire primary ballot and both of them will get less than 1%
Roemer: ~0% or 6%*
Buddy isn't likely to play here very much unless he gets the exposure of a debate. If he does, I forecast he gets 6% mostly at the expense of Huntsman.
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