Thursday, September 14, 2006

Less and less certain

I am moving one more riding into more uncertain territory.

Caraquet - Hédard Albert is one of my favourite MLAs and he speaks with tremendous passion in the legislature. I think it would be a real shame for him to lose and, due to the hospital issue, I figured he was more than safe.

However, Alvy Singer believes the NDP has a real shot here and, though I don't think I am convinced of that, a strong NDP candidate splitting the "angry about the hospital vote" could allow a Tory to sneak up the middle.

I am going to move this to leans Liberal.


Anonymous said...

Base on the NB Liberal Survey Tracadie is far from being a safe PC seat.

Alvy Singer said...

I don't think this is a vote-splitting situation. Because of the health care situation up there, the Tories are simply not an option.

It's either Albert or Doiron.

Anonymous said...

Les affiches de Nadine Hébert ont été endommagées à Cocagne au cartier général, la peur des PC

Anonymous said...

Word on the street is that Paul Barry may have a shot in Rothesay, with the Walmart issue which he voted against. He appears to have won the sign war, and though that is not everything the chatter is that Rothesay is ready for a change. Personally, I don't pick a party to stick with but the tides are turning it appears in the Rothesay area.

nbpolitico said...

Alvy - depends I guess. The PCs won Caraquet in 2001 and still got 46% in 2003. If they slip to say 34-35 then they could win in a tight vote split. There are those that are happy with the hospital decision as it means (supposedly) more services in Bathurst. I think that the PC vote that would not have already gone Liberal is safe so any NDP gains would come from the Liberals.

I don't think the PC candidate can get any more than say 38% but if the NDP is doing as well as you suggest, that could be a win.

Anonymous said...

Did anybody hear Shaun Graham admit that his insurance rates have gone down during the last 3 years? I heard rumors that he admitted this this evening? Does anybody know if it's true?

I also heard that he was so nervous that he even called Bernard Lord, Mr Brewer?

Anybody know if this is true?

Anonymous said...

What is the big deal 8:53 PM. Insurance companies increased the rates by 100% and then reduced them by 15 % or so. Is that the kind of going down you are talking about. Their profits have quadrupled and not gone down. Where are the profits coming from? Would you consider elaborating?

Do we all not make mistakes in our conversation? It is not that he gave away $2.2 billion on Orimulsion deal. It is better that a leader who is human than Bernard Lord who is a cold-blooded liar and inhuman.

Alflucky said...

Hey 9:19 pm, 8:53pm was just asking a question. Your response was uncalled for, people like you ruin the blogging world. By the way, my insurance has dropped by 55% since this occured and I have never had any infractions or violations.

Anonymous said...

10:27 PM either you are naive or you are playing naive. It was more than a question. It was an attempt to discredit.
Ok let us say it was a question then would you consider elaborating why the profits of insurance companies have quadrupled?

herringchoker said...


Yes its true on both counts. He tried to avoid the insurance question, but Steve Murphy held him to it. All three leaders acknowledged that their personal rates had gone down.

Of course, SG also looked directly into the camera and pledged to bring NB insurace rates down to the Atlantic average, which makes me suspicious that that's where the the Insurance Board has ordered them to be for next year.

As for me, my rates are down one-third from 2004 (and considerably lower than they would be in Manitoba, where they used to be even). If anyone is interested, you can play the insurance quiz at ( Use R3L 2B6 as your default postal code. Its the Osborne Village in Winnipeg, a bohemian part of town.

herringchoker said...


Does anyone know where I could lay my hands on 100 Bricklins? I think they might be worth something these days.

herringchoker said...

Also, NBPolitico

I admire your moxie wrt your detailed predictions. I think you're off the mark somewhat (my guestimate - 24 safe Tory seats, 25 safe Liberal seats, the other six up for grabs - I'm counting Caraquet as safe Grit) but its gutsy nonetheless.

Personally I think, barring a massive swing over the weekend, any prediction for either party over thirty is out of the ballpark. And I'm still expecting one dipper (Tantramar, Oh Tantramar!) to emerge from the wreckage, but I'm not sure where. Ordinarily SJ would be a safe bet but they all seem to have gone to ground this time out.

nbpolitico said...


I suspect you are right as well - there are a few "leans PC" seats that should be in the safe column but my own rules of engagement prevent me from moving anything to safe this final week.