Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Some quick changes

As we approach the finish line, I expect that there will be a lot of manouvering on the part of the parties, potential gaffes and big moves, and lots of other things no one can predict.

I am fairly confident with most of my safe seats right now and until my final prediction on Sunday, I am not going to make any more safe calls. Nor will I make anything safer (no too close to calls will move to lean). However, in cases where I think the race is more open than I thought, I'll make those changes so, here are three:

Rogersville-Kouchibouguac - For some reason, I thought the margin here in 2003 was over 1200 votes, but in fact it was just over 200. A ~100 vote margin in 1999 and a ~200 vote margin in 2003 + redistribution that would have made the seat a Liberal victory in 2003. I am moving it from safe PC to leans PC.

Moncton East - I know I will be accused of partisanship, but I have received more than one email telling me that the students at UdeM are being very effectively mobilized by Brian Gallant and his organization to come out and vote Liberal. If the government changes, then this seat will be really close. If the Tories are re-elected, so will be Lord but by an even narrower margin than 2003. I am moving it from safe PC to leans PC.

Tantramar - With apologies to Alvy Singer and other NDP fans, I have it from a good source that, despite how it may look on paper, the NDP will finish third. I am moving it to too close to call only because of my rules I set above. Based on what I've heard of the Liberal candidates success here, I suspect if the NDP aren't taking off, it is leaning PC.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

How about changing York North to Liberal. There are a lot of upset people over the pension issue. I can't see Kirk MacDonald winning them over.

Anonymous said...

I work in the Albert riding #27 campaign... we have heard nothing but people wanting a change...you really need to redo some figures and ask for help from people working on these campaigns who know first hand what is going on. All I can see...is RED!

nbpolitico said...

Anon at 4:15 ... my impression is that Nackawic is going hard Tory and that will safe MacDonald.

Anon at 4:32 ... Ummm... I do that, my site strongly encourages people to provide me with some information to help me move seats around. These three changes today were a result of people telling me insightful things. However, a campaign worker saying they think they are going to win is not enough for me to move one of the safest Conservative seats in NB. Why? What reasons to they want a change, what context is this coming in, etc, etc... with that info I could move the riding.

Anonymous said...

I am not a campaign worker but a political observer. I believe red tide is rising and blue is subdiding.

Liberal win on Sept 18. Minim seats 32.

Alvy Singer said...

You are correct about Tantramar, nbpolitico.

I wasn't very clear over at FPTT. There are just too many ifs.

If the NDP gets 10% (per the CRA poll), then they will win a seat. If they win a seat, then Tantramar is one only four possibilities.

I don't have a feeling either way on the party's ability to get that 10%. But if they do, it has to come from somewhere. If they don't, then the first condition of my above paragraph's reasoning is answered in the negative and the remaining clauses do not apply.

That was me getting all defensive about being called an NDP fan:

Alvy Singer said...

not that there is anything wrong with that. I am a leftist by nature but I try to keep it multipartisan over at FPTT.

nbpolitico said...

Sorry Alvy. I didn't mean to imply you were an NDP fan based your prediction post, I was thinking the NDP had a chance of two seats until I got my tip on Tantramar and still think that they have a shot in Fredericton-Silverwood and a long shot in Fredericton-Lincoln.

You just seem to be quite often leaping to their defence (though I suppose someone has to) so I was trying to be cute ;)

I think it is possible (though it would be remarkable) for the NDP to get 10% too.

Monctonite said...

The idea that the NDP received 10% in the CRA poll is good news for the Liberals. If the Grits already have a lead I see them bleeding the NDP of even more support on E-day, resulting in even greater numbers.

This is why I am having difficulty with the CRA poll. I just don't see the Liberal support and can't believe the NDP support. And I'm a Liberal ... who dislikes Shawn Graham ... but a Liberal all the same.

I still stand by my 32 seats for the PCs.

Here's a couple of questions: If Lord only wins by two seats, does he step down? He only called this election to change the virtual impasse in the Legislature. If the PC only win by two seats, is that a failure on his part?

Anonymous said...

PCs are not winning, Monctonite so you do not have to worry about it.

What Bernard Lord does after he gets the boot is his problem. He will find a way to fool people somewhere else. Deception is the very nature of the man. He cannot help it.

Monctonite said...

Anon 9:27,

You say those things about Lord like you're blinded by the light of Shawn Graham. One day you'll figure it out, that they're both cut from the same cloth.

You are putting much too much faith in a false prophet.

Anonymous said...

Monctonite, I did not say a word about Shawn Graham if you noticed. It is yet to be seen how this new Liberal crop will be like in government. I am just pointing out the failings of the individual/s who have been in government and have been a total disaster.

Especially on the issue of compassion Bernard Lord and company are dead brain. Suing a veteran of WII to claw back his disability pension. Yes dead brain. Then Mr. Lord lied repeatedly in the legislature and outside the legislature. Remember the fiasco of budget surplus in 2003 which actually was a deficit according to Auditor General. There are many other examples.

Anonymous said...

File this one under the category of gaffes in the final days of the election - Tiny Huntjens in the Telegraph Journal today is quoted as saying that the Orimulsion disaster didn't cost a cent to NBers. This must come as interesting news to the Government lawyers, who work for him and the rest of the Lord Government, who are suing Venezuela for $2.2 Billion. Who's working for Chavez now?

Monctonite said...

Anon 8:39,

I apologize for putting words in your mouth. I've always thought of Shawn as the moon eclipsing the sun, his team. You see the brilliance peeking out from behind him, however his shadow darkens everything.

Anonymous said...

Monctonite, Shawn Graham so far has proven himself to be people's person as opposed to aloof and hiding behind the door Mr. Lord.

8:48 AM It is well-known about Huntjens and his disconnect with his brain. His mouth keeps shooting and brain rarely connects if at all. Must be electric shock from Colson Cove which caused it. He was given many dozes of Orimulsion for cure but so far his brain has not responded.

Peter Kincaid said...

I think that if the politics of desperation continues among Conservatives you can revise your overall numbers up for the Liberals. I see the Progress for New Brunswick blog is now trying to link the Liberals with communists. Just as the federal Conservatives made fun of Chretien talking out of the side of his mouth, and the federal Liberals shading a Hitler-like-moustache under Harper's nose, this will only turn voters off.

nbpolitico said...

If Lord only wins by two seats, does he step down? He only called this election to change the virtual impasse in the Legislature. If the PC only win by two seats, is that a failure on his part?

I think that he will claim victory regardless, saying he improved his standings at least verses the last election which, if run under these ridings, he would have lost by 4 seats.

He has no intention of staying around if he wins, IMO, for my thoughts on his plans please see this post.