Lord wouldn't say if this would be his last campaign.Lord is, for the first time that I've noticed, alluding to Fredericton as his home. I think that he is setting himself up for his future plans. If Lord wins the election with a more comfortable majority, watch for him to run in the next federal election in Fredericton against Andy Scott. Lord has lived in Fredericton at least since 1999 (maybe since 1998?) and, though far from a sure bet, it would be far more likely to send him to Ottawa than ultra-Liberal Moncton particularly with Brian Murphy as his Moncton opponent.
"I'm in it for this campaign and we'll see after that."
Lord also said if his party loses the election, but he wins his seat that he'd likely stay on as an MLA.
"I could see myself serving four years as MLA for Moncton East, I love what I do," he said. "My children want to go to school here, my wife loves being a teacher here, so we'll see."
It would not necessarily be a sure thing for Lord to run if he were to lose the election as he may want some time to lick his wounds but, in that case, look for him to set up shop at a Fredericton law office before aiming to run in either the next federal election or the election after that while finishing his term gracefully as MLA for Moncton East.
Also of note was the bias against Lord in today's papers. I have grown used to seeing neutrality at best and often pro-Lord non sense in all of the Irving papers. However, today's TJ took an anti-Lord bias with is large headline "TORY SLAMS LORD ON ENERGY". This was a story about Peter Hyslop, the public intervenor at the PUB and Tory candidate in SJ Lancaster. Apparently Hyslop, who often ran against the government as intervenor, still disagrees with some of their energy viewpoints and would not necessarily back the PC caucus on energy matters in the legislature.
While newsworthy, "slams" is a huge over dramatization and not a factual description of what Hyslop had to say.
This is but the most recent example of a big shift in the editorial minds away from the Tories and towards the Liberals. And, I suppose, in all fairness, what goes around comes around. It is nice to see Lord get a taste of his own medicine.
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Lord is a goner. He may win his own seat. Run in Fredericton for feds? No way. No where people detest him more than in Fredericton. He might as well pack up and go to his favourite destination - Timbuktu.
Just out of curiousity, have you observed any shift in editorial support towards the Liberals by the Lord worshiping Times Transcript?
The ting I liked best in this blog nbpolitico is the thought that someone who might be able to win would run against Andy Scott. There's a plan I can get behind.
Autismreality NB, I don't think you can call what the T and T is doing as a shift towards the Liberals, but they are questioning some Tory policy so that's a positive move. That's exactly what they should be doing all around. Taking sides is simply biased journalism.
Spinks,oh please! And T & T is not biased. Bernie's newsletter. That rag constantly praises Bernie and finds bright side to each and every folly of him. It is propaganda organ for Bernie. It looks he sits on the editorial board and dictates everything.
If Bernie can win in Fredericton then I have a bridge for sale, between mainland and Grand Manon Island.
I've written many times that the T and T has a Tory bias. Who can deny it? However they have been a little more critical lately and that's a step in the right direction.
Against Andy Scott? Yeah, man, Lord would make it a race. There are plenty of voters who want Scott gone but the Tories haven't had a credible candidate to go up against him yet. The point is moot anyway. Unless the Liberals get their act together and start looking like they really want to win this thing, Lord is in for another four years anyway.
"credible candidate"? Let us face it, Spinks, that Lord will never be a credible candidate for Fredericton. May be from Moncton where beer money and other millions he dumped could help him. Lot of stuff was done at the expense of Fredericton and Saint John. Those two places are no no for him.
Liberals should energize themselves as Lord is on his down hill ride.
Does anyone think Lord will lose his own riding? He is running against a student (Brian Gallant) well known and respected in the community, and after all it is a riding that is loaded withh students! Think about it....
Lord won leadership of PC party by giving free beer and pizzas to students. It depends who can provide more beer and pizzas. Bernie has Molson behind him and some volunteers from pizza parlours should do it for him.
If anyone needs to worry about their riding, it’s Graham - although losing may be a blessing for him. It would save him from resigning when the Liberals knife him after his second provincial election loss.
Aldéo Saulnier, the popular mayor of Bouctouche, is giving Graham a run for his money. Watch for Graham to be tied down campaigning in his riding rather than touring the Province in the days to come.
"..second provincial election loss." Talking about exaggerations. 2003 election was supposed to be a cakewalk for Lord and he was supposed to win all 55 seats. We all know the rest.
This time around people have caught on with him that what a big phoney he is. He is already making plans to do something else. May be sell used cars. Does that tell you anything?
Brian: it seems to be a question that is pondered every election but at the end of the day rarely happens. Many undecided often "give" the vote to the leader because they believe they should have a seat in the House. I've seen this happen time and time again in both federal and provincial elections.
In this case I don't believe the Premier will lose his seat though will he still be premier on the 19th? that's another question. at the same time, it doesn't look like Allison will win her seat, Fredericton may be too "c"conservative for her. the debate on Shawn potentially losing his seat is interesting, I don't know enough about the riding to put any support for those who believe the PC candidate is stronger. I find it hard to believe that he would lose his own seat.
Spinks - I was saying I thought it would be more likely for Lord to run federally if his government was re-elected. With a victory under his belt, Lord will have undone the taint he has been wearing since his near defeat in 2003, it would also almost surely mean he would have the flexibility to resign and run federally.
Note his phrasology this time around. Last time he was emphatic that he would run for a third term, this time he won't committ to a day past September 18.
Maybe Nbpolitico...if he can win a solid enough majority. The only problem is the Conservatives lack something that the Liberals have plenty of...someone waiting in the wings to be the next leader.
anon9:15, it's not because Fredericton is too "conservative" to elect Allison Brewer (although that will probably be their excuse on Sept.19), it's because the NDP have run a lousy campaign and don't appear to know what they're doing. It's frankly too bad. A strong third party keeps the other two honest, however they have to win the voters support not the other way around.
What would be his motive for running federally? We all know that provincial politics is the worst breeding ground for the fed scene.
And if Lord loses, which he will, then watch for long knives being unsheathed. His days as a leader and Premier are numbered.
Hey Scott, I agree with you. No Premier has ever gone on to become Prime Minister not in recent times and I cannot think of one. What kind of power base Lord will have coming from a small and poor province of NB. That is why McKenna shied away. If you are from a rich and powerful province then better chances of succeeding federally.
Lord is headed for political anonymity anyway, even provincially.
I think if Lord had gone when he was beckoned to lead the new Conservative Party, he had a serious chance. He was fairly well liked in Alberta and Ontario. But post his 2003 meltdown and subsequent anti-Alberta/Ontario reincarnation(gas price regulation and Equalization champion, etc.), I honestly don't see it. Win or lose, I think he's in France as Ambassador within 24 months. I heard this again from a fairly reliable political source this weekend.
David Campbell: that sounds more realistic.
I don't think Lord would have a very successful federal political career. I do however think that that is his end goal.
Lord did unsuccessfully run for the federal nomination in Moncton back in the day, so it would be quite probably that federal politics would be his end goal.
In Lord's early political career he basically ran for everything (from city council to federal politics) and lost until he eventually won the Tory leadership... interesting kamikazie approach, run for everything and eventually you'll win something ;)
Did give him alot of campaigning experience though.
I think if Lord had gone when he was beckoned to lead the new Conservative Party, he had a serious chance. He was fairly well liked in Alberta and Ontario.
That's where you're wrong. The PC feds were decimated at the riding and ground level. As well, they were bankrupt. The Alliance party had basically scooped up all the valuable and talented so-cons (true blue tories) in the West and neo-cons that supported Harris in Ontario. Notwithstanding a few Joe Clark and Peter Mackay tories who remained loyal to the party, most of the "red tories" had moved over to Paul Martin (i.e. following JC, John Heron, Scott Brison, Rick Borotsik and Andre Bachand) as pundits were deeming him unbeatable. The obituary had already been written for red tories long before the merger was finalized.
This was a huge reason why Mackay didn't run for the CPC leadership because there was no money out there to go after and the Alliance party had dibs on 85% of the eligible conservative membership in Canada....this made the PCs look like an uncompetitive rump organization.
There no question that Lord would have energized many of the undecided, but there is no question that the race was already tilted in Harper's favour from the get go. The bottom line was, there was just too much ground to make up in too little a time frame.
People forget the T&T backed McKenna in the day. If the Liberals had someone worth backing the T&T would likely reconsider. Easy to back Lord when you look at the options.
Anyhow, my first prediction shows the Tories with 30 seats, Liberals with 22 and 3 are still too close to call.
Lord will get a majority, the size of which will depend on whether or not Graham self-destructs in the last week.
Liberal 40, Tories 15. Lord possibly will lose his own seat.
You're kidding right anon 8:36? The only one I've read that was better was that the NDP would take 12-15 seats. You're working in the Liberal warroom aren't you? Only they would possibly think that.
That's probably what they said in 1987 too.
monctonite - would you care to share more details on your predictions? I would be keen to compare our analyses.
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