Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Deciding the undecideds

The past few times that I have updated my projections, I have gone through my list of "too close" ridings and tried to see if any stood out to me as actually leaning one way or the other. Each time I have been able to pick at least one that I was ready to call. I am no longer able to do that.

So, for the 10 districts that I still list as "too close to call" I am going to spend the next few days analyzing them.

I'll learn more about the candidates, study the electoral history, try to put together a picture of the mood in the riding (or at least its region). As I think this through, I will write and share my thoughts with you. As I get to the end of my analysis, hopefully I will be able to call it as at least leaning one way or the other.

I am going to start off with Fredericton-Silverwood tomorrow (and will probably do Fredericton-Nashwaaksis at the same time and, if there is time, a third) due to a promise I made Alvy Singer.

Here are the 10 ridings I have to tackle, if you have any inside info or suggestions on the mood there, please let me know so I can incorporate it into my thinking.

  • Centre-PĂ©ninsule-Saint-Sauveur

  • Charlotte-Campobello

  • Fredericton-Nashwaaksis

  • Fredericton-Silverwood

  • Miramichi Centre

  • Moncton West

  • Quispamsis

  • Rothesay

  • Saint John Portland

  • Tantramar


Anonymous said...

Here are my thoughts and Why?

Centre-PĂ©ninsule-Saint-Sauveur (PC)
- Awsome campaign team
Charlotte-Campobello (PC)
- Huntjens will be in Cabinet
Fredericton-Nashwaaksis (Lib)
- Burke will survive, but by few votes
Fredericton-Silverwood (PC)
- Again, Green will survive
Miramichi Centre (too close to call, I agree)
- If they see Tanker fall, they may vote PC...Chatham vs Newcastle
Moncton West (PC)
- Joan has it in the bag, Devereux not organized...actually make Libs look bad
Quispamsis (PC)
- There is a reason why they call her Brenda the Defenda...She wants it!
Rothesay (PC)
- Blaney will return to cabinet
Saint John Portland (PC)
- Holder will win...close...but will win
Tantramar (PC)
- Olscamp teacher...he is the teacher everybody likes...Pat Estabrooks former Mayor working hard for him

Anonymous said...

"Huntjens will be in Cabinet"?May be win his seat but bye bye to Cabinet. Lord is not going to form the next government.

Brenda the Offenda has offended too many. Bye Bye Brenda and do your offending somewhere else.

Margaret-Ann Blaney may be winning her seat. Welcome to opposition with few colleagues returning

Anonymous said...

Brad Green is safe. Won by over 500 last time, and riding redistribution helps him. Also, one of only 2-3 strong NDP candidates in the Province. This is important because most of the NB NDP vote has been a Weir vote, and that's gone. Need strong candidates to maintain the vote, and Atchison is one. NDP holiding most of its vote helps Green, because soft NDP vote is likely to go Liberal if it goes anywhere at all. Plus, the Liberal candidate is unknown, and poorly organized. Most of Anne Bertrand's supporters for the nomination are sitting at home now that she's out of the picture. Rick Miles is the kind of candidate who might win in a Liberal tide, but that ain't out there.

I also think TJ Burke is safe. He's got a good rep as a hard worker, and his organization is strong.

I think Brenda the Defenda is in trouble. She was a marginal victor last time, and she's not acquitted herself well. She a Defenda of Tory policy, but not as often of her riding.

Agree Joan MacAlpine was beatable, but not by Gene Devereux. She's safe. Again, she'd be in trouble if there was a Liberal tide, but, well, you know. I see Huntjens, Holder and Blaney the same way. Likely to win if the polls show a PC victory.

Anonymous said...

I've been on the ground around the Fredericton area, hearing folks' thoughts and they're satisfied with the government. That would spell an overall result differing from where this blog seems to be trending.

Generally, the consensus about the province that I hear is that there are really about 20-22 seats for both sides that are safe. The balance -- and the balance of power -- is what's in play.

A common comment out of F'ton Na'sis is that voters didn't know what they were getting in 2003 -- or that it was a strategic vote to dump the MLA of the day. Any way you cut it, if the Liberals win government, Burke will be on the backbench (or maybe the courtroom?). Given the way things are shaping up, I think the voters there are savvy enough to put their money on a potential minister, like this Smith fellow, and not a part-time opposition backbencher.

After Fowlie's close call in '03, I expect they've tooled up their game some over the past three years and the winning margin will be many multiples of 17!

Hard to say about Tanker. This year's antics might not pay off, or maybe standing up for the hometime will reward him on the 18th. We'll just have to see, but I agree with the too-close-to-call grouping on that one.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 10:48 ...

It is not Tanker I have marked as too close, it is Miramichi Centre currently held by Liberal John Foran.

I think it is widely expected that Burke would be in the cabinet.

Anonymous said...

10:48 PM I hope you go to the same coffee shops, Tim Horton, that I go to. I hear big trouble for Bernard Lord. People are not so upset with their individual candidates but you mention Bernard Lord faces turn red with anger.

That man, Bernard Lord, spells trouble for P.Cs and he will bring the party down. Liberals may be good for few decades all because of Bernard Lord and his follies. Higher power bills, insurance bills, gas prices are not much help for politically dying Bernard Lord.