Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Cabinet Making (Part I)

Current cabinet has 19 members (including Premier).

Graham is adding 1 (Spilting Agriculture, Fisheries & Aquaculture) while the posts of minister "responsible" for Seniors and minister "responsible" for Housing are unlikely to be stand alone ministers but instead be added on to others.

I also expect that Graham will appoint a minister of labour, however that may roll up in with the Office of Human Resources and parts of Training and Employment Development. Thus this is a net gain of 0.

Kelly Lamrock was critic for "Learning, Employment and Innovation". Watch for Training & Employment Development to get some new teeth and money for R&D and for him to be the minister here.

So now, we are expecting a cabinet of 20. Who is in?

The obvious
Shawn Graham
Greg Byrne
Kelly Lamrock
Hédard Albert
Victor Boudreau
Roland Haché
Mike Murphy
Roly MacIntyre
T.J. Burke

The have-tos
Cheryl Lavoie (one of three women)
Carmel Robichaud (one of three women)
Mary Schryer (one of three women)
Ronald Ouelette (one of two MLAs between Fredericton & Campbellton)
Larry Kennedy (one of two MLAs between Fredericton & Campbellton)

With those 14, the remaining six would be chosen for regional balance

Bernard LeBlanc (greater Moncton)
Ed Doherty (Saint John)
Abel LeBlanc (Saint John)
Rick Doucet (rural Southwest)
Donald Arseneault (central north & youth)
John Foran (Miramichi)

So, statistics:
Women: 3 (all)
Francophones: 8
Anglophones: 12

North: 5
Miramichi: 1 (2 if you count Carmel Robichaud who I've assigned to the North)
Greater Moncton: 4 (all - this counts Shawn Graham who may be a stretch to include in Greater Moncton)
Greater Saint John: 5 (if you count Rick Doucet in Charlotte-The Isles)
Greater Fredericton: 3
Upper Valley/Northwest: 2

This is a good balance. Now comes the tricky part assigning portfolios. I will wait for some comments on my picks for the cabinet and then will come back to the table with portfolio assignments.

Surprising ommissions: Stuart Jamieson (who I think should be named whip, a very important post in this situation, and will perhaps join the cabinet as minister without portfolio which has been done for whips in a number of other provinces) and Eugene McGinley who I think would be the wide consensus candidate for Speaker unless a Tory could be lured to sit in the Speaker's chair.


Monctonite said...

What about Victor Boudreau from Shediac?

nbpolitico said...

Victor Boudreau is the 5th person under "the obvious"

Monctonite said...

my bad.

Anonymous said...

I don't agree that Larry Kennedy is a given. He didn't want cabinet in the McKenna years, and likely doesn't now. (This makes Ouellette that much more certain.)

I think Rick Docuet is a sure thing, too, because he's the only Liberal in the southwest.

I also think TJ Burke is a maybe, and not a sure thing. He's a loose cannon at times, and adding him to Byrne and Lamrock would mean 3 ministers for Fredericton. Possible, but not certain.

I think Abel LeBlanc has zero chance. In fact, I think he is on the short list of Liberals likely to do something crazy. (See also Bill Fraser.)

John Foran would not get in if there was a better option in Miramichi, but there's not.

Otherwise, I agree with your list.

I think Brian Kenny and Jack Keir have an outside shot, too. Keir will likely not get in if MacIntyre, Schreyer, Doherty and Jamieson do. But then again, maybe Keir gets in and Jamieson does not.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 2:39..

I think Burke is in for sure because of the symbolism of the first Aboriginal cabinet minister.

I think Kennedy is in, if he takes it he has declined in the past, because two members for all of the area from Fredericton to Campbellton is not enough, you need more than just Ouellette that is why both are in.

Lord has four greater Fredericton members in cabinet now (MacDonald, Green, Ashfield and Carr) so I don't think it is a stretch to see three.

Anonymous said...

Good update. Very realistic. Jealousies and inn-fights will begin.

Shawn Graham is too nice to let Bernard Lord attend Francophonie conference. Lord is a mean, mean guy. He does not deserve any mercy.

Anonymous said...

Bernard Lord declared on CTV that he has a new job and he is happy, thank you. He is the new paper boy. If he delivers paper on my street he shall get no tip. He deserves none.

nbpolitico said...

anon at 6:58 .. LOL