Thursday, September 14, 2006

Another poll puts the Liberals ahead

Another poll conducted about the same time as most recent CRA survey shows the Liberals ahead by a similar margin.

The full poll is here (in PDF).

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday (while CRA went Thursday through Saturday) and it shows the Liberals at 45, the Tories at 43 and, the real story in my opinion, the NDP at 11%.

With the undecides in, the results are Liberals 32%, PCs 31%, NDP 8%, Undecided 14%. Again, I think the NDP is the story here. For them to be at 8% of the decided vote is remarkable considering that they have not had the best of campaigns and that Elizabeth Weir is off of the map.

It shows that the NDP has 11% of the decided vote in and around Fredericton. The results for "Central" which likely goes to Woodstock/Harvey/Oromocto/Minto is as follows: PC 35%, Lib 27%, NDP 11%. That is 15% of the decided vote for the NDP in greater Fredericton... zoom into the city and I think that that means that the NDP could have a real shot in both Fredericton-Silverwood AND Fredericton-Lincoln.

It is also worth noting that PC voters seem to be slightly over represented in this survey. Asked who they voted for in 2003 and 46% said PC, while 42% said Liberal. A four point spread, when the results were only 1 point apart.

The poll also showed that while voters thought Lord won the debates, Graham exceeded expectations.

In summary:
  • CRA results confirmed

  • Good news for the Liberals

  • Great news for the NDP


herringchoker said...

I think you mean

Liberals 32%, PCs 31%, NDP 8%, Undecided 14%.

But I agree, its looking stronger for the Dippers.

northernnb said...

polls,polls,polls Who cares will find out on election day

Anonymous said...

I have a theory on the NDP numbers and it comes from political theory on polls and the idea of social constraint - sometimes people feel so constrained by their personal philosophy they will misrepresent their true intentions in polls. In other words, while the NDP may be at 8-11% in polls, I would bet 4-5% of those people actually intend to vote for another party or not vote at all but they just can't say it out loud. I know a number of very strong NDP supporters and party members who intend to vote for their local Liberal candidates, and some who are planning to spoil their ballots, but as far as most of their friends and families are concerned, they've told them they're voting NDP.

Anonymous said...

The regional breakdown in this poll helps a lot, especially when assessing the NDP numbers. The two dominant regional stories for the NDP compared to 2003 are a rise in support in the Fredericton area and a significant decline in the Saint John area.

While I'm not sure which ridings they are grouping into the regions used in the polls, I'm assuming that Central will include everything in Queens, Sunbury, York, and Carleton counties, along with Southwest Miramichi. For the South region, I'm assuming they are including everything in Kings, St. John, and Charlotte counties.

If that is the case, then the NDP vote from 2003 for the polling regions was as follows:

South (Saint John): 16.9%
Central (Fredericton): 11.3%

The poll numbers would reveal 2006 support levels of:

South (Saint John): 11.4%
Central (Fredericton): 14.9%

While I doubt anyone was expecting any NDP wins in Saint John, the poll does lead me to think that the NDP may have a fighting chance in Fredericton-Silverwood, and at least a strong base in Fredericton-Lincoln. Take into account that most of the candidates in the Central region will garner hardly any votes, and that there is no candidate in Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak (and the NDP got about 1000 votes in the polls that make up this new riding in 2003), and you have a regional NDP vote concentrated almost entirely on the southside of Fredericton. Even in 2003, 51.9% of all the NDP votes cast in Queens, Sunbury, York, and Carleton counties were cast within the city limits of Fredericton. I think that percentage will be even higher in 2006.

With many other bloggers saying that Dennis Atchison in Fredericton-Silverwood has a stronger chance of winning than any other NDipper, this poll further comfirms that that riding will definitely be one to watch on election night.

Anonymous said...

Bottom line is Mr. Lord has finally lost the confidence of people. Talk to people on the street and about everybody has some gripes that how Lord and government misled him/her. Real bad news: Tories are done in NB.

nbpolitico said...

herringchoker... I do mean 31%, typo corrected.

Anonymous said...

Everybody knows the NDP are also rans, particularly in a tight race. I often voted NDP, typically out of disgust of the other parties, and knowing it was a waste of a vote. I think its partly the opposite theory to the one above, I think lots end up voting for the NDP but just can't say that out loud.

Here's another thought, who knows somebody who was ever actually polled? Who to say whether polls are actually done at all!