Self-Sufficiency "Action"

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

Premier Shawn Graham released today the government "action plan" on making New Brunswick self-sufficient. The report is 35 pages long. There is also a summary of 15 pages, but if you are going to read that much, I'd suggest going for the real thing.

The issues that I think are key to attaining this goal - population growth, education and infrastructure - were well addressed, and while lacking specifics in some areas, I think we have a good plan.

I particularly like this line: "linking job opportunities here with the skills of those who are looking to move home". With very few exceptions, every New Brunswicker I know who lives away wants to come home. Many of them don't however; either because they don't think it is realistic to find work in NB, or because they are a couple, and finding work for two people at the same time is nearly impossible, thus making the move impossible by extension.

If I take that quote to mean what I think it does, then ex-NBers who want to come home will simply have to send in a resume and the province will do the heavy lifting to match them (and, as required, their partner) with jobs in New Brunswick. This is ingenious because I think that there are thousands of New Brunswickers - and probably other Maritimers - who would jump all over opportunities here if they knew they could find them easily.

With regard to education, there is a focus on some kind of pre-kindergarten learning (it is unclear whether or not this would be institutional), flowing into a stronger focus on "the three Rs" leading into grade 5, and a career-minded focus through high school, with the aim of enabling students to identify a career in which they will excel and enjoy by the time they graduate. In terms of post-secondary education, the language is quite vague. It's the same line we've heard since the L'Ecuyer-Miner report came out, so I guess we'll have to wait a while longer to see whether or not it will be implemented.

There is a lot of talk in the plan of "strategic" infrastructure. I was particularly interested in the reference to rail, something that has declined in the past 20 years in our province - and totally disappeared in Western NB. In France, they have had dramatic success in connecting cities and rural areas using high-speed rail lines. I think this is something NB should investigate as it could really make the province a lot more attractive for investments and company relocation.

I also really like the focus on the film industry, to which I think the geographic features of New Brunswick are ideally suited. Nova Scotia has done really well in this area and, I think, New Brunswick should learn from their example considering we have just as much to offer this industry. Saint John in an architectural sense works as well as (or perhaps better than) Halifax as a stand in for Boston or New York, and we have comparable coastal vistas. Add to that more geographic diversity and sheer number of forests, mountains, rivers and cliffs, offering a multitude of potential shooting locations, and I think New Brunswick could easily grow and sustain a booming film industry.

We still have to wait for quite a few specifics, some of which I assume will be in next week's throne speech, but it is great to see that this file is continuing to be pushed.

Advertising

A bit off topic, though my interest in U.S. politics does end up here from time to time.

Mike Huckabee is one of the Republican contenders for president in next year's election. He is probably best known by Canadians for being one of two governors that were fooled in editions of Rick Mercer's Talking to Americans. Governor Huckabee wished Canadians luck in saving our national igloo which is, of course, a scale replica of the Arkansas Capitol building made of ice and serves as our parliament building.

Other than political junkies, most would not know that this guy has any chance at winning the presidency. In fact, he is running a strong second, in polls in Iowa and history tells us that unknowns can win the presidency thanks to a surprise win in Iowa (just ask Jimmy Carter).

Anyway, that is not why I am writing this post. It is because he is running the best political advertisement in the history of mankind. I can't decide if it will actually be helpful or not, but it is certainly unique and will attract a lot of attention. I thought it a bit silly, though very amusing, but non-political types in rural Iowa may be moved by it. What do you think?



(h/t Jonathan Martin)

Minimum wage hike

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

I wanted to take a moment to applaud the announcement today that the minimum wage will go up another 50¢ to $7.75. This is a significant move and it is the third hike since the Liberals took office. The minimum wage has increased $1.05 since the 2006 election.

This is a fairly substantial demand to make on small business owners. In fact, $1.05 in extra wages costs a small business owner with 5 FTEs $11,000 per year. Certainly not chump change. However, an increase in the minimum wage inevitably drives up other wages via a domino effect. That is good for all New Brunswickers and for New Brunswick, given the aim to retain and return people to our work force.

I remember in 2002 Paul Duffie was running for leader of the Liberals, and proposed the minimum wage be raised to $8 by the end of 2007. There were cries from within the party that this would destroy small businesses, a concern which was echoed by the media and the business sector itself. Regardless, it seems that this lofty goal is about to be met, and that is a great thing for our province. As of June 2006, New Brunswick had the lowest minimum wage in Canada. A year and a half later we've moved from 13th to 10th and are on the cusp of surpassing the 6 provinces that have minimum wages at $7.95 or $8.00.

I hope the government continues to move forward with this aggressive trend and pushes the minimum wage past $8 in the not too distant future.

Finally, on an unrelated matter, when I logged in to post this, I discovered that this will be my 300th post. A bit of a milestone and a good reason for me to thank all of you for reading and commenting and making this such a fun and rewarding exercise.

"Netroots" making an appearance in New Brunswick

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

I've been blogging about New Brunswick politics for 15 months and some odd weeks and have had a relatively stable following for the past while.  Here on my primary blog, I consider a post a success if I get 10 comments, I don't believe I have ever had much beyond 20.

A post I wrote earlier this week about the Fredericton Conservative nomination race did above average at 15 comments.  The post I wrote on the results however has attracted 38 comments (and counting).

Canada has tended to be a few years behind the U.S. in political innovations.  In the U.S. we have seen the rising of the "netroots" - a term that plays on "grassroots" - as a force in politics, this group has been largely untapped and unreported in Canada.

Keith Ashfield was not the netroots candidate in Fredericton and that is abundantly clear.  In response to my first post, one person was annoyed that Ashfield was the only candidate in the race that didn't have a website.  In response to my second post, and to a lesser extent the first, there has been near unanimous criticism of Ashfield from all commenters, yet he won the nomination meeting.

Certainly there is a great potential to harness those interested in politics through the internet.  The fact that at least 10 (it is hard to figure out which anonymous posters are distinct from each other) Tories, most of whom seem to have attended the meeting, have come to a relatively obscure Liberal blog that gets between 100 and 200 page views per day is evidence of that.

Ten people may not sound like a lot, but the margin of victory on Wednesday night was 8 and at the last Tory nomination it was 3.  Wednesday's nomination meeting had just under 1000 delegates and it was considered "huge"; 10 people represents 1% of the attendees of a "huge" meeting, a relatively significant sample.

Canadian political parties have done very little - when compared to their American counterparts - to reach out to the netroots constituency.  As far as I know, New Brunswick parties have done nothing at all.  I think the reaction that has been shown on my blog shows that there is great potential to engage some very enthusiastic and well informed voters and would-be political activists here.

I wonder if any party will take on the challenge and whether or not the netroots will make a difference here like they have south of the border?

FOOTNOTE: I do have to tap myself on the back about my pre-nomination analysis.  I said, Ashfield "can only win if a second ballot is required and Forestall supporters move to him en masse" but that many Forestall supporters would skip the second vote.  The results were as follows: Ballot #1 - Macdonald 428, Ashfield 397, Forrestall 134; Ballot #2 - Ashfield 440 (+43); Macdonald 432 (+4); missing from voting 87.

Ashfield wins

According to commenter "fredericton tory", New Maryland-Sunbury West MLA Keith Ashfield has won the Conservative Party of Canada nomination for the riding of Fredericton.

It was a narrow victory on the second ballot.

Ashfield can retain his provincial seat until a federal election is called, so there won't be a by-election anytime soon. However, the Liberals would be heavily favoured to pick up Ashfield's provincial seat.

Federally this victory moves Fredericton from my "too close to call" column and into the "leans Tory" one. The longer we wait for a federal election, I think the better the chances are for Ashfield who can campaign full time and use his one-on-one charm to win over those parts of the riding he hasn't already represented.

Fredericton Tory update

First ballot completed, Forrestal eliminated. Ashfield and Macdonald face off for round two now.

Richard for leader? A desperate move that could pay off... or not

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

The New Brunswick Tories have been a lackluster opposition and if they don't do something bold and dramatic soon, they could hand the Liberals a blank cheque for the 2010 election. Now they are proposing to do something very bold, which could save them. However, if it fails, they could be giving the Grits a blank cheque tied to an even bigger bank account.

There was a lengthy report in yesterday's Telegraph-Journal that outlines the Tory plan to hand Bernard Richard an ideal run up to the leadership of their party. It would be quite ironic because Richard served as a Liberal MLA from 1991 to 2003 and many would argue was the most effective critic of the Lord government for their first four and a half years in office. He led a six day filibuster against the 2003 Lord budget in December 2002. Electing Bernard Richard would require Tory members to, in effect, repudiate the Bernard Lord record as it would be impossible for Richard to embrace it.

However, if Tories could swallow their pride and if Richard were to run and win the leadership, he would throw the Liberals completely off of their game. He was Shawn Graham's mentor for his first year as leader and the Premier still considers him a close friend, at least on the record. It would be a tremendous embarrassment and rejection of the Liberal government for Richard to choose the Tories and become the leader of the opposition to a Liberal caucus he helped lead only 4 years ago, including 24 of the current caucus members. There would be some obvious problems, as I mentioned above, Richard was one of the most partisan Liberals in the legislature and never had a good thing to say about the Tories, however that would be all cancelled out if he became leader. The fact that he was rejecting his Liberal heritage, and Shawn Graham personally, would be a far greater plus for his new party than it would be a negative.

The potential for a huge blow is even worse, however. The Tories have already become the laughingstock of the chattering classes with their choice of Jeannot Volpé as interim leader, ineffective opposition to easily opposable Liberal policies and waiting two years to choose a leader when the party risks semi-permanent oblivion by not having one.

Now, couple all of that with what happens if Richard declines: the next leader would be the butt of endless Liberal jokes as being the second choice, after a heavily anti-Tory retired Liberal. The party that won the popular vote in 2006 and started out with a caucus full of veterans (the vast majority of which had severed at least two-terms and were returning for a third) and 20 former cabinet ministers, had to not only look outside of its caucus for a leader, but to its greatest critic. And then that critic laughed them off. Can you imagine? Indeed, in today's Telegraph, Richard's successor and former chief aide, now Finance Minister Victor Boudreau, plays these lines.

If Richard is genuinely willing to consider this then the Tories are probably wise to approach him. But to speak to the papers and give them quotes about all of the wonderful red carpets they would be prepared to laid out for Richard makes them look like damn fools if he does anything other than say yes.

BY THE WAY: Spinks and I seem to be operating in reverse order. Yesterday he posted a bit about Bernard Richard while I talked about the federal Tory nomination in Fredericton. Today, we're doing the reverse. You can find Spinks' piece about the Fredericton Tories here.

UPDATE: Less than 48 hours after this was first reported, the play is over. Bernard Richard will not seek the leadership of the Tories and they look even more foolish than ever.

Fredericton Tories to pick banner carrier

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

Federal Conservatives in Fredericton will meet tomorrow night to chose their nominee to stand against Liberal candidate David Innes in the next federal election. The seat has been held since 1993 by Liberal Andy Scott. However, prior to that it was held by the blues, since the 1957 Diefenbaker win, and was considered to be a Conservative stronghold.

Since 1997, Fredericton has been a prime pickup target for the Tories. In that year and in 2000, the Reform and Alliance parties split the vote significantly, taking 22% and 24% respectively. In 2004, with the new Conservative Party on the scene, it was thought to be a sure bet for the Tories. In 1997 the combined PC and Reform vote was 52% to Scott's 34%; in 2000 it was 54% for the right to 39% for the incumbent Grit.

However, in 2004 and 2006, as was the case in the rest of Canada, the merger didn't result in 1 + 1 equaling 2, let alone the 3 that many proponents of the merger hoped. In 2004, Andy Scott was up 5000 votes and the combined forces of the right were down 4000. In 2006, Andy held steady and the Tories picked up 2000. So, with a popular incumbent out of the picture, and an incumbent Conservative government looking a lot better than the lackluster Liberal opposition, this seat should definitely be up for grabs.

So, as I was saying, the Tories choose a candidate tomorrow night. Here are the options:

Keith Ashfield, MLA for New Maryland-Sunbury West. Former Lincoln-area businessman, first elected in 1999 and re-elected in 2003 and 2006. Served during his first term as deputy speaker. He was well regarded by the opposition and observers as being fair and impartial while sitting in the chair, a view not accorded to the speaker or the other deputy speaker during that period. After 2003, he was named to the cabinet as Minister of Natural Resources and got a passing grade from most folks. A likable guy who plays fair and is not too partisan; he is well liked by politicos of all stripes, including yours truly.

Will Forestall, 2006 provincial candidate for Fredericton-Lincoln. A well known artist and activist, this Red Tory would likely fit the mold of Mark Warner, so it is unclear whether or not he would remain the candidate if nominated. He ran between two big names, Greg Byrne, then-former and now-current cabinet minister, and Allison Brewer, then-NDP leader. He placed second, ahead of Brewer, and ran a good campign.

Brian Macdonald, a former military officer and newcomer to politics. I don't know much about this fellow, but have heard from the buzz around both Liberal and Tory organizers that he is putting together an impressive nomination campaign.

Intuitively, one would presume Ashfield would be a shoe-in and Forestall would run second. However, this is the game of nomination meetings and resume, profile, charisma, experience and anything else you would normally draw to mind are irrelevant. All that matters in a nomination contest is warm bodies in a room. The winner will be the candidate who can convince enough existing Tories, and sign up new ones, to support him and show up for a lengthy nomination meeting.

Macdonald is apparently the heavy favourite, which suits the Liberals just fine. This would make the fourth time in a row when the Tories had a far more electable candidate at the ready and chose someone else. In 2006, 2004 and 2000, there were candidates that were widely agreed to be formidable but they were not nominated and Andy Scott was re-elected. History is looking to repeat itself.

Ashfield, as it is told to me, can only win if a second ballot is required and Forestall supporters move to him en masse. In this sort of meeting that is unlikely though because, if Forestall's people know he is going to place third, they will go home rather than wait for the ballots to be counted and the second round of voting to begin.

However, Tories would be well served to vote for Ashfield, who Liberals feel they cannot defeat on a personal level. The Liberal strategy with Macdonald as the nominee will be the same one that has seen them win the last five elections. If Ashfield is the winner, their campaign will focus on an attack on Harper; the resulting contrast between the PM and Dion would likely push the Tories over the top.

Let's see how she goes...

Pick a lane

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

Whenever I am driving in Montreal or Toronto, I often find myself yelling "pick a lane" at some of my more aggressive and less logical fellow drivers.

My advice to Jeannot Volpé is similar.

Much as he did this spring during the legislative sitting, rather than picking one or two or three major issues and focussing on them and making an effective critique of the government, his reaction to the recent cabinet shuffle was unfocussed and made him look bitter and overly negative when he could have used the opportunity to make some political hay.

The cabinet shuffle had a number of areas that could have been seen as flaws. No one likes to see more politicians at the top, and the cabinet has two extra members. Women are way under represented and that didn't improve with this shuffle. Volpé ignored those points. Volpé criticized one area that makes sense - a floor crosser being included in the cabinet - but then couldn't resist himself and threw his credibility out the window in going way off track.

Rather than make an arguments about democracy, he went on a rant about how Tories were mad, Liberal backbenchers would revolt and how the dirty rat would never be re-elected. How about: "Crossing the floor is an affront to democracy and an insult to voters. Shawn Graham should never have justified this action by admitting these people into his caucus and certainly shouldn't have rewarded it by putting one of them into his cabinet"? That is a reasonable criticism that would resonate with people, but with Volpé, it has to become petty and personal.

Then he makes up some nonsense about how this cabinet shuffle is an insult to Francophone New Brunswickers because Hédard Albert and Carmel Robichaud were "demoted". Huh? All cabinet ministers are equal at the cabinet table and even if they weren't, the argument doesn't make sense.

Albert moves from a department focussed on the machinations of government whose primary role is to negotiate labour agreements with the civil service under the close watch and direction of the premier and finance minister to a ministry which has been touted by the premier as a top priority.

Robichaud moves to an admittedly smaller department in terms of budget but one which requires close relationships with the province's 103 municipalities during a period when the province is talking about substantial change to municipal governance. These don't sound like demotions to me. In Albert's case, it would seem a promotion and in Robichaud's case it is, at least, a lateral move if not actually a promotion as well.

Why the Tories are waiting until next fall to pick a leader I will never figure out. Jeannot Volpé is the best thing that has happened to the Liberal Party of New Brunswick in a generation!

A teeny weeny cabinet shuffle

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

A very small shuffle to the cabinet was announced today, with two new ministers added to the cabinet and three ministers changing jobs.

Surprisingly, none of the additions to the cabinet were women (of which Cheryl Lavoie and Joan MacAlpine-Stiles were options) or from Moncton proper (of which Chris Collins and, again, Joan MacAlpine-Stiles were options). Instead, Wally Stiles, an MLA from Greater Moncton, and sitting speaker Eugene McGinley were added to the cabinet - increasing the representation of Greater Fredericton to 4 (if you count Grand Lake-Gagetown), while Moncton stands at 2 or 3 (depending of if you count Shediac) and Saint John stands at 5 or 6 (depending on if you count Charlotte-The Isles).

This decreases the size of the Liberal backbench to 10 and means there will have to be a new election for Speaker. Deputy Speakers Roy Boudreau and Brian Kenny would be possibilities. Other than Larry Kennedy, who past experience suggests is content to be a backbencher, the only other MLA with substantial legislative experience is Joan MacAlpine-Stiles.

I think Wally Stiles is certainly a good choice for cabinet, in general, as I always thought he was a lot stronger of a performer than a number of people that went into the cabinet over him during the Lord years; however I am not sure how well received it will be by the press, as he is a recent floor crosser, or by other Greater Moncton MLAs like Bernard LeBlanc and Chris Collins.

As I predicted, Mary Schryer has earned a promotion and that promotion has been to Family & Community Services. That was all I got right however; the size of the shuffle and the rest of the players invovled were pretty off base.

The Premier sheds his responsibility for Wellness, Culture & Sport which goes to Hédard Albert.

Albert's Human Resources portfolio goes to new minister Wally Stiles.

Former speaker McGinley picks up Schryer's responsibilities for Housing and Seniors, which makes sense as McGinley was critic for seniors' issues in opposition.

Finally, Carmel Robichaud, takes over the Local Government portfolio which had been held by Finance Minister Victor Boudreau. She also gives her responsibilities for Status of Women to Schryer and gains new responsibilities for the non-profit sector as a result of the Bradshaw Commission.

Tax cuts for everybody!

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

I wonder how many hits this page will be getting over the next 24 hours?

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced some substantial tax cuts today. Unlike what is usually the case with tax cuts, these will actually add up to something meaningful. A guy or gal earning $40,000 will get $225 extra back next year when they file their 2007 taxes. That isn't chump change.

At the same time, the GST will drop to 5% (and presumably the HST will fall to 13%, thought the provincial Liberals may hold it higher as was recently recommended by an economist).

Corporate taxes will also go down and, most importantly to me, a subtantial payment will be made on the federal debt. Overall, I am pleased with this. If I were prime minister, I think I would have not done the GST thing and instead paid down more debt - that was the purpose of the GST afterall - and maybe saved a bit more for contingencies. However, I am not writing this to get into the merits of the announcement; I want to write about the politics of it.

So, what does this mean? I think it reinforces my prediction that there will be an election in December.

How so? The Tories have now blown their goodies that would ordinarily be spent in a pre-election budget. They clearly are aiming for an early vote. The Liberals are unlikely, however, to cooperate by voting non-confidence. Therefore, I suspect any Liberal attempt to tinker with these changes or slow them down in committee will be met with an election call by Harper on the grounds that the Liberals are obstructing the agenda and preventing the implementation of the GST cut by the promised date of January 1.

I hope all you candidates out there saved your toques from the 2006 campaign!

Wally & Joan

I had a good chance to chat with the newest Liberal MLAs. They were treated as heroes and certainly seemed to be enjoying their new party.

We talked about the different "cultures" between the two parties and they felt the same way I had when I was a Tory. A lot of folks in the NB PC Party seem to be bitter and fixated on minor issues, like they've got a chip on their shoulder. They felt that way too.

Also one of the first things they mentioned was how different of a leader Shawn Graham is. Joan said you really feel a part of a team and are listened to and consulted where under Lord it was as though they were pests. And she was even a minister!

Graham's speech

Interesting fact: today is 20 years since the swearing in of the McKenna govt. I understand all of the surviving 58 are having a private reunion in Fredericton tonight.

- early Nov release of Self Sufficiency Action Plan which will transform four pillars:
Govt
Relations
Work force
Economy

- health care changes coming

- relations with other govts, business and non-profits will change as will relations with First Nations

- work force to be transformed by transforming post-secondary education; making courses more credible, tackling student debt, making sure students learn skills that can keep them in NB and so that employers can recruit within and not outside of NB. Time has come "to move from protest to programs" in PSE. Got long applause and standing o for that

- economy: must let world know NB open for business, new ambassador program got 100 members in one week; pride in NB will help transform economy

Attendence

800 delegates

Fed continued

Last question was about poverty, Andy Scott gave a very good, impassioned, well thought out answer about the federal spending power on social programs.

I smell this as a key theme of any Liberal platform in an upcoming election campaign.

Federal Q&A

Most questions relatively standard with standard answers. Of note though, one guy asked a question about confidence measures and the caucus provided a wishy-washy answer. Here was the follow up:

Q. You kind of side stepped my earlier question, what I want to know is that if the government introduces a bill on, for example, climate change or Afghanistan that is fundamentally opposed to Liberal policy, will you vote against it knowing it would cause an election?

A. (Paul Zed) Yes.

There were great applause.

Constitution and Q&A

Three minor constitutional amendments passed with relative ease though there was a bit of debate around an amendment giving the Women's Commission more representation on the party executive.

The provincial Q&A was pretty low key. Only a few minor questions on post-secondary, with the majority of questions going to TJ Burke on a variety of subjects ranging from auto insurance to pensions.

Liberal convention - first take

Great parties.

Over 600 delegates, supposedly many more registering tomorrow which will be pretty impressive for a Liberal convention in a remote Tory corner of NB.

I missed Dion's speech and have heard really good and really bad reviews. Nothing in the middle. Will try to get an unbiased take. Most "real" so far was something along the lines of: "Great ideas, needs better English and more charisma, but if he could get these ideas to resonate with the people he'd win."

Coincidence?

I am not sure if this is a coincidence or not.

Two days after I commented that Real Clear Politics, and through them politico.com's Ben Smith, shouldn't be listing Bill Richardson in their presidential polling summary if they didn't include Joe Biden as well because they've basically become tied in the polls.

If you check those two sites today, Richardson has been removed. Seems unlikely that they would notice and react to an obscure Canadian blogger, but I had emailed Ben Smith about it so maybe I'll take the credit ;)

Live blogging the NB Liberal convention

The New Brunswick Liberals are holding their biennial meeting this weekend in Edmundston. I will be attending and will live blog the interesting details here. So, start watching around 6 or 7 p.m. tonight ... that is you don't have something more exciting to do on a Friday night.

UPDATE: I have a preliminary run down of what will happen posted over at CanadaEast.

(the below is a copy of what was posted at CanadaEast)

LIberals to convene in Edmundston

The New Brunswick Liberals - both provincial and federal - will be meeting tonight and tomorrow in Edmundston for their biennial meeting. The party will discuss internal constitutional amendments, elect a new party executive and hold accountability sessions with their elected members. Not surprisingly, or perhaps so to some, the party will also party quite a bit.

I will be "live blogging" the developments over on my other blog as I am not sure how or if I can do that here. Here is a run-down of the rather light agenda:

Friday evening
6 p.m. - Routine proceedings (O Canada, Introductions, etc)
7 p.m. - Speeches, etc from candidates for party executive
7 p.m. - Simultaneously, the Young Liberals elect their executive
7:45 p.m. - Beginning of federal portion of event
8 p.m. - Speech from Stéphane Dion
8:30 p.m. - Federal social event (music, partying, etc)
11 p.m. - Official program ends for the evening

Saturday morning
8 a.m. - Discussion of and voting on constitutional amendments
9 a.m. - Q&A/accountability session with provincial caucus (including premier and cabinet)
10:30 a.m. - Q&A session with federal caucus
11:45 p.m. - Results of executive election announced and new president makes remarks
12 noon - Premier's closing address
1 p.m. Adjournment

As always, I look forward to your comments here and over at the other place. If you would like to reach me during the convention, I will be checking my email at nbpolitico@gmail.com.

UPDATE: I read in today's Telegraph-Journal that 1000 protesters are expected to be present to express their concerns about the potential changes for UdeM-Edmundston under the post-secondary commission report. Protesters are pretty standard fair for a convention of a government in power, but I hope that overzealous members of the party don't hijack the accountability session on Saturday with questions just on the subject of the future of UNBSJ and the UdeM satelites.

Biden the darkhorse

As I've mentioned before, Joe Biden is my favourite Democrat in the U.S. presidential race. I've noticed him starting to get some traction in the all important state of Iowa which, as of now, still stands to be the site of the first vote in the U.S. primary season. If New Hampshire moves its primary up to December, as has been mused, it is likely that the Iowa caucuses will go second and all those who have invested major efforts there to get a surge may be very disappointed, we'll assume, though, that that won't happen.

Anyway, back to Biden. He has seen some good news in Iowa in the past few weeks.

1.) He stands a close third in terms of support of local Iowa politicians. He has 11 endorsements of state representatives and senators compared to 16 for Hillary Clinton and 13 for Barack Obama. This compares to 10 for John Edwards who was for a long time considered the frontrunner in Iowa and who placed a close second there to John Kerry in 2004. Also, according to the same source, he has spent more days in Iowa this year than any other candidate and face time is very important in the Iowa caucus where only about 100,000 die hard party members vote.

2.) He has gained the endorsement of Storm Lake Times. This is a small town paper, but it is the first newspaper anywhere in Iowa to endorse anyone so far this election.

3.) He's edging up in the polls becoming the clear favourite of the lower tier both in Iowa and nationally. Bill Richardson used to be considered among the top tier for his lengthy experience and fourth place standing in polls. Now Biden, who has as much or more experience depending on how you look at it, takes turns with Richardson being in fourth and fifth place. In two of the six most recent national polls, Biden is ahead of Richardson; they are tied in a third. The most recent Iowa poll has Richardson at 9 and Biden at 6. This may not sound great, but Richardson has been falling from double digits, while Biden previously registered as 0 or 1. Moreover, a poll at this time in 2003 had John Kerry at 9 and John Edwards at 7.

4.) David Yepsen, considered the god of Iowa pundits, has been talking Biden's chances up a lot. First, he said Biden would do surprising well then he put it into writing explaining that Biden was going up in the polls at Richardson's expense and was getting out good crowds to his events.

Indeed, what prompted me to write this post was seeing Richardson stuck at 3% in the top corner of Ben Smith's blog. I noticed that while Richardson is still included with the "big three" in the Real Clear Politics average, he probably shouldn't be. I did a review of the polls in their average and it shows Biden has climbed to 2.7% compared to Richardson's 3.1.

So, while Dodd, Kucinch and Gravel get 1s and 0s, Biden and Richardson get mid-high single digits. They probably don't have any business being in the "top tier", but certainly Biden now has as much claim to that as Richardson which is a big difference from a few months ago. I think it would be fair to say that they now constitute a "middle tier" and if coverage is going to draw in Richardson, Biden should be there as well.

The Great Floor Crossing Debate

Spinks and I are having a "point/counter point" on floor crossing and what should be done about it in the future over at CanadaEast.

You can read Spinks' original post here and my rebuttal here.

(a copy of my rebuttal from CanadaEast follows)

Floor crossing, an emotional subject

This past weekend the New Brunswick Cry Babies' Progressive Conservative Party had their annual meeting and one of the measures discussed was a scheme to penalize future floor crossers by making them pay back any monies spent by Tories to get them elected.

This is a very problematic policy. Primarily because it would be illegal if the amount spent was more than $6000 (because that is the maximum an individual can donate to a party) and that it would be impossible to differentiate between donations made to the riding association because people were good Tories and those made because people were friends with, or fans of, the candidate.

However, the PC executive director says that he isn't even sure if they will enforce this policy - even in opposition they are going to bend their own rules! - so that discussion is moot.

Spinks and I agree that this particular motion is a bit silly on the part of the Tories. It makes them look petty and it became the main focus of their convention. As I have said before, though I think the Graham Government is doing well, it is not perfect and there is a lot to criticize. Rather than say "THEY RAISED YOUR TAXES!" and repeat it over and over and over, the Tories instead focus on mundane, nitpicky things. It is no wonder the Liberals lead the Tories by a margin of 2-to-1 in the polls.

However, where Spinks and I disagree is on the merits of floor crossing. Spinks says:

However I don't think floor crossing should be totally scrapped. If your
political party is doing something that is so totally counter to your conscience
and/or the desires of your consituents, a politican with integrity needs to be
able to bail IF they have done all they can to make things work. If that means
going to another political party then fine.

But there's one thing that politican needs to do first.

They need to ask permission from the people who voted them in.

Some people vote for a local candidate and a lot vote for a political party
so when MacAlpine-Stiles says those with a beef about the crossing are only "a
few people who have an axe to grind," I disagree. I suspect there are a lot of
people in the two ridings who aren't pleased with what happened or more
importantly that they had no say.

Spinks is right that more people vote for the party than the person in their local ridings; a lot of folks vote for a particular party because they want that party to form the government and they could care less who the candidate is. However, after the election that doesn't really make much difference.

We'll use Wally Stiles as the main example here because he is from the more conservative riding and won by a much larger margin. I think it is fair to say that the majority of people in Petitcodiac wanted a PC government and that a good chunk of those who voted for Stiles would have voted for any candidate the Tories put up.

However, the situation here is a matter of the Tories being an opposition of 25 seats (before the Stiles crossed) or 23 seats (after they crossed). The fact that they changed their affiliation is completely irrelevant to the status of the PC Party in the legislature. Whether they crossed the floor or not, their voters - who voted to elect a PC government - were not going to get what they wanted.

If it was a situation where they crossed the floor and changed the balance of power in the legislature, or if it was a case like when Peter Trites crossed from the NDP to the Liberals and cut the size of the NDP in half by doing so, then I think you can make the argument that the people had their way and then it was wrongly taken from them. In this case, the people never got what they wanted in the first place and the floor crossing didn't really change anything.

By-elections are expensive things that result in people being without a representative for at least 6 weeks, which is not something that should happen automatically. When Tanker Malley left the Tory caucus in the winter of 2006, I think you would have found that most of his constituents supported it, at least initially. If he had had to resign and go through a by-election, he wouldn't have returned to the legislature before the budget vote and could not have done for his constituents what they wanted him to do.

So, I think, a policy of forcing floor crossers to go back to the people who elected them is routed in emotion and not logic. An alternative might be possible, such as creating a recall mechanism for floor crossers, but an automatic by-election just doesn't make sense to me.

What do you think?

A polytechnic or not a polytechnic, that is the question

For my thoughts on the reports that the government is guaranteeing Saint John will retain a "university" in any post-secondary education restructuring, please see this post on my CanadaEast site.

(a copy of my post from the CanadaEast site follows)

Give polytechnics a chance

I've got to admit I am pretty disappointed with this news.

I have been an enthusiastic proponent of the Post-Secondary Education Task Force Report. I think turning things upside down as Robichaud did two generations ago can really help put us on the fast track for success. The proposal to create a polytechnic in Saint John was controversial, but, on the face of it, it makes sense for the following reasons: New Brunswick has too many universities; UNBSJ has a poor national reputation as a backwater to a backwater; Polytechnic-like institutions are a growing thing and make a lot of sense in the 21st century economy; and Saint John would have the competitive advantage of having the first English polytechnic east of Toronto.

However, instead of sticking to their guns, the government appears to be backing down to a loud emotional reaction from some individuals in Saint John. That is unfortunate. It remains to be seen exactly what the end result may be, UNBSJ may still become a "technical university" or a "university of applied sciences" or something else which is the same thing that has been recommended by the commission, but doesn't lacking the connotation of the word "university" that opponents of the original plan seem to be obsessed with.

I certainly hope that the end decision isn't to give us essentially the status quo in Saint John but still create two Francophone polytechnics in the North. That would essentially change nothing in our English schools and give Franophone New Brunswickers more options in their schooling than Anglophones, something that I suspect would cause a lot of problems in the long term.

Let's hope we see a more sensible conclusion to this debate and that the government has the nerve to stand up and do something bold and sensible, regardless of its popularity.

My take on the Throne Speech: an election by December 17

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

It looks to me like Canadians will be going to the polls sometime before Christmas. Today's Throne Speech by Prime Minister Stephen Harper was a stroke of political genius. Though it is not provocative enough to turn Canadians off, it does have some cleverly placed lines that make it very difficult for the Liberals to swallow, and, if they can swallow it in the short term, even more difficult in the long term.

First, the speech says:

It is now widely understood that, because of inaction on greenhouse gases over the last decade, Canada’s emissions cannot be brought to the level required under the Kyoto Protocol within the compliance period

Translation: The Liberals could have set us up to deliver on Kyoto but they failed, including under the tenure of Environment Minister Stéphane Dion.

The Liberals may be able to get past that and other triggers - though not without a lot of teasing and chiding from the Tories and other parties - but here is Harper's silver bullet:

In the last session, our Government introduced important and timely legislation to tackle violent crime. Unfortunately much of this legislation did not pass. That is not good enough to maintain the confidence of Canadians. Our Government will immediately reintroduce these measures with a single, comprehensive Tackling Violent Crime bill to protect Canadians and their communities from violent criminals and predators. (emphasis added)

So the Prime Minister will introduce legislation covering all of their crime proposals (perhaps including ending the long gun registry?) in one bill, which they have already implicitly indicated will be a confidence measure.

It is still unclear how and when an election will be triggered but it seems to me there will be one this year.

If the government falls on the vote on the Bloc sub-amendment vote on Thursday, an election could be held as early as November 26; a date that would be 7 years less a day from the 2000 election and not unusually late. A vote for the Liberal amendment on Monday or against the main motion next Wednesday would make for an election no earlier than December 3. The press was reporting that Dion had decided earlier in the day to go for an election but that his advisors were trying to talk him out of that. His brief remarks this evening indicated that he was pretty unhappy with the Throne Speech and sounded like he would likely be voting against it. However, my understanding is that most of the Liberal machine is well aware they couldn't win an election this fall and they will be aggressively trying to talk him down from that position.

Thus, it is my prediction that the Throne Speech will pass, but that in the coming weeks the government will fall on a bill deemed confidence. That, or the Prime Minister will simply call for an election due to "dishonest obstruction of the government agenda by opposition parties after they allowed the government's agenda that laid out these items to pass just a few weeks ago", leading to a vote on December 10 or 17.

Mike Murphy - new government house leader?

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

I am assuming that this isn't a typo but in a news release announcing that the house will sit beginning November 27, Mike Murphy is named as government house leader.

There has been no cabinet shuffle but it does appear that, without fan fare, Mike Murphy has taken over the house leadership duties from Stuart Jamieson who is battling cancer. However, the government directory still names Jamieson as the occupant of the job.

Roger Duguay, the new leader of the NDP

I have some advice for the new leader of New Brunswick's third party. Check it out at my CanadaEast blog.

(a copy of my post from CanadaEast follows)

Roger Duguay's next steps

I was away this weekend, so I hope you all checked out Spinks for the scoop on the NDP leadership race. The candidate I thought was the best choice for the NDP was the winner, so I hope he proves me right and can recapture some momentum for the NDP.

Spinks and I agree, as do many others I have spoken to on this, that though we may not vote NDP or support their platform, a third voice in the legislature is better for democracy and brings on better and more accountable government so we hope they do modestly well.

So, Mr. Duguay, if you are reading, here is what I suggest you do next.

First, I read somewhere else previously that Mr. Duguay, who works as a supply teacher, was planning to move to Fredericton if he won and would supply teach as possible to support himself and work the leadership the rest of the time. I think that this is a good move, it puts him close the legislature and the press and it lessens the burden on the NDP coffers as they won't have to pay him (or at least not as much as they would otherwise).

Now, that would have been my first piece of advice, but what to do once he is in Fredericton?

It is important to build a relationship with the press. Just showing up will not do it. He should take the time to meet informally and personally - lunch or dinner is what I am saying - with all of the members of the legislative press gallery.

It is also important not to make oneself too available to the press or you will oversaturate them and they will not bite when you speak because they will be so used to hearing you on every issue. The press must report the government and opposition point of view on every issue, the NDP does not enjoy that luxury. Therefore, it is better for the NDP to save their noise for when they have the most effective contrast on key issues than it is to pepper the press with comments that mirror either the Liberals or the Tories day in and day out.

He should also pick a few priority issues and push them hard. Unveil them to the media, write public letters to the MLAs whose constituents are most effected by the issues and encourage them to raise them. Then hammer the two larger parties whenever he has a chance for not advocating these positions and parlay that into a narrative of how the NDP voice in the legislature is one that is important and relevant and must be restored.

Wither the New Brunswick NDP?

(crossposted to CanadaEast)

It is no secret that our NDP is in bad shape. After winning 10% of the vote and seats in 5 of 6 consecutive elections from 1982 through 2003, they were shut out in 2006 and saw their vote fall to an almost all time low of 5.1%.

This weekend the New Democrats meet to pick a leader, but regardless of who wins, it may be too late for our social democratic party. A very scary lesson should be learned for the NDP by looking at the results of the Ontario election last night.

Though it was actually a good night for the NDP; they had their best popular vote showing since 1995 and increased their share of seats from 7 to 10 versus the last election. However, that was the result received by a relatively strong and vibrant NDP. The real story of the night was the growth of the Green Party. The Greens won only 2.8% of the vote in 2003 and surged to over 8%. Moreover, they placed second in one riding, ahead of the Liberals and NDP and most notably, displaced the NDP as third party in 17 more ridings and ahead of the Tories for third in another.

That is to say that, in a province where the NDP formed the government as recently as 12 years ago, where the NDP has an established base of support and organization and was going into the election with 10 seats, the Green Party still managed to triple its vote and beat the NDP in 18 ridings (of 107, that is 17%, almost 1 out of 5). Especially interesting is that both the NDP and the Greens gained support, while the Liberals and Tories faltered. Thus, even if the NDP gets its act together and doesn't bleed support to the Green Party, they risk being overtaken anyway.

Today, there is no Green Party in New Brunswick. However, the organizers of the federal Green campaigns here indicated last fall they would have a party together and field a full slate of candidates in the next election. Whether or not that will be true remains to be seen, but, if it is, it is not hard to imagine the Greens doing as well in New Brunswick in 2010 as they did in Ontario in 2007.

The results for the Green Party in New Brunswick in the 2004 election was 3.4% and in 2006 was 2.4%; an average of 2.9% which is better than the base of 2.8% the Ontario Greens brought out of the 2003 provincial election.

So, back to the primary subject at hand: this weekend, the New Brunswick NDP are choosing a leader. What can they do to prevent disaster?

Ironically, in my view, it is to not vote for the best choice. I am a big fan of Dennis Atchison who is a moderate in the mould of Robert Chisholm who took Alexa McDonough's perpetual third party Nova Scotia NDP and turned it in to a contender for government in one election cycle. Theoretically, that is the best candidate for the NDP to choose. However, this is a bit of a unique circumstance. If this was 2005, then I think the NDP could be on the cusp of a breakthrough if they had someone like Atchison at the helm. But, the NDP chose to forfeit that opportunity, chose an unpalatable leader and crashed and burned. From the ashes, especially with the risk of losing their status as the third option, the NDP must choose the candidate that can prevent that from happening.

Could the Greens beat the NDP in the popular vote in 2010? Most definitely. But the one thing that the Greens are unlikely to do is elect an MLA. Roger Duguay, who has run with good success three times, could, as leader, win his riding. He got 26% of the vote in a three way race in 2006 and that was with the party suffering its worst defeat in 32 years. Should he be the leader and should the NDP run even a marginally better campaign, I think he would be the favourite in his home riding.

Therefore, if the NDP wants to avoid being displaced by the Greens, Duguay must be their choice.

And now, for something completely different

Well, not really.

I have been invited by CanadaEast (the web arm of Brunswick News, which is in turn the newspaper arm of Irving Corp) to write a blog from a "left-wing" perspective on New Brunswick politics. Though I consider myself more of a moderate or centrist, I guess my Liberal label makes me a left winger by default.

This blog will continue, but I will cross post the relevant pieces of it over there. There may also be some "point, counter point" between myself and whoever my right wing counter balance is, so I'll link you to there for that as appropriate.

I will see some benefits if I manage more than 5000 page views per month (my current average here is 3920) so please stop by my brand new, shiny second home which you will find at canadaeast.com/blog/politics.

UPDATE: We are now online and ready to go. You'll find my site at the revised URL canadaeast.com/blog/fromtheleft and my right-wing counterpart at canadaeast.com/blog/fromtheright. Most readers of this blog will be familiar with my blogging friend Spinks; it is he who will speak from the right. This should be very good fun!

Meet The Press

This just popped into my inbox:

October 3, 2007
Ottawa, Ontario

Public event for Prime Minister Stephen Harper for today, October 3rd are:

3:45 p.m. – Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be available to take questions from the media.

Press Theatre
National Press Building
150 Wellington Street
Ottawa, Ontario

That's right folks, Prime Minister Harper is sitting down for a Q&A with the press, the national press, in the national press theatre, for the first time since he took office. It is very unusual and something very interesting must be a foot. Or, as someone just suggested to me, maybe he is just going to sit back and take a bunch of questions about the Liberals at Dion's expense?

Either way, a quasi-historic moment, at least in the context of the Harper primeminsitership, and worth tuning in for if you're a nerd like me. That would be 4:45 Atlantic and it will be presumably carried on Newsworld, NewsNet and CPAC.

Graham guess

Per a request of a commenter and due to my insatiable desire, I am going to try to predict the Graham cabinet shuffle.

The press has been functioning around these main hypotheses:

1.) Stuart Jamieson, who is battling cancer, will keep his tourism portfolio but possibly lose the house leader job

2.) Victor Boudreau and Premier Shawn Graham who have more than one full department, will shuffle away some of their responsibilities

3.) Junior minister Mary Schryer and a Moncton-area backbencher will be promoted

4.) Some other high performance backbenchers may be promoted

I think some of these have merit and others do not.

The first move that would make a lot of sense to me is to give the Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour portfolio to a non-Saint John minister. I think that this report should be fully implemented but it is unpopular in Saint John, in my view only for cosmetic reasons, so to make it more politically saleable, it should be given to a strong, non-Saint John minister. I think if they move to implement it quickly, by the time the 2010 election roles around it will be popular in Saint John and across New Brunswick.

Second, this government has made a fair bit of noise and some major announcements in terms of support for Aboriginals. I think that the government will elevate the role for Aboriginal relations in government, which is largely a federal area of juridiction, by moving Intergovernmental Affairs and Aboriginal Affairs into the same portfolio with its own minister as was the case under previous Liberal governments.

Third, I believe Finance and Local Government will remain together because the unconditional grant, the key file in provincial-municipal relations, is actually under the finance minister.

Fourth, I believe the Premier will retain the Wellness, Culture and Sport portfolio as he has a keen interest in this area and speaks of it regularly.

Fifth, the premier has a cabinet with 2 women and a caucus with 4. Both are small numbers, but the symbolism of not moving at least one of these women in to cabinet would be bad. Greater Saint John currently has 4-5 ministers, Fredericton has 3, Moncton has 1-2, therefore both Chris Collins and Joan MacAlpine-Stiles will be added to the cabinet.

Therefore, here is how I see the cabinet shaping up (+ dontes added responsibilities, - denotes some responsibilities removed, * denotes new role and/or department, n/c denotes no change):

Shawn Graham (-)
Premier
Minister of Wellness, Culture and Sport

Hedard Albert (*)
Minister of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour

Donald Arseneault (n/c)
Minister of Natural Resources

Victor Boudreau (n/c)
Minister of Finance
Minister of Local Government

T. J. Burke (n/c)
Minister of Justice and Consumer Affairs
Attorney General

Greg Byrne (*)
Minister of Self-Sufficiency and Economic Development

Chris Collins (*)
Minister of State for Youth, Retention and Repatriation

Ed Doherty (*)
Minister of Aboriginal and Intergovernmental Affairs

Rick Doucet (*)
Minister of Human Resources

John Foran (n/c)
Minister of Public Safety

Roland Hache (n/c)
Minister of Environment

Stuart Jamieson (-)
Minister of Tourism & Parks

Jack Keir (n/c)
Minister of Energy

Kelly Lamrock (n/c)
Minister of Education

Denis Landry (n/c)
Minister of Transportation

Joan MacAlpine-Stiles (*)
Minister of State for Seniors and Minister of State for Housing

Roly MacIntyre (+/-)
Minister of Supply and Services
Government House Leader

Mike Murphy (n/c)
Minister of Health

Ron Ouellette (n/c)
Minister of Agriculture and Aquaculture

Carmel Robichaud (*)
Minister of Fisheries
Minister responsible for the Status of Women

Mary Schryer (*)
Minister of Family & Community Services

I kind of made up a few new portfolios on the fly here, including creating a new super ministry, the Department of Self-Sufficiency and Economic Development, which would merge Business New Brunswick, the Regional Development Corporation, the Population Growth Secretariat, etc. This seems to have been foreshadowed in last months deputy minister shuffle when the deputy minister for self-sufficiency added Business New Brunswick to his responsibilities. Also we get a Minsiter of State for Youth, Retention and Repatriation who would have responsibility for the Youth Council and delegated authority from the new super ministry to tackle the probelms of youth leaving and getting them home.

My justification for the other changes:

• Albert has had a light portfolio and capable of taking on more and is a former college instructor and has two degrees from UdeM where the L'Ecuyer-Miner Commission is also unpopular


• Doherty seems to have had some success in Aboriginal Affairs so it makes sense to keep him there, the combination of Intergovernmental Affairs and taking PSE away from a Saint John minister is explained above


• Doucet's calm demeanor would be a good fit for Human Resources


• Giving MacAlpine-Stiles only a junior role seems to be a good middle ground between not wanting to alienate your backbench by rewarding a floor crosser and needing women and Monctonians in cabinet


• MacIntyre is a veteran legislator and very strong willed, he therefore is a good fit for House Leader who must not only know parliamentary procedure but be willing to stare down his opposition counterpart in negotiations


• Fisheries is a logical fit for Robichaud, the MLA for Neguac


• Schryer is due for a promotion and with responsibility for Housing and Seniors she is already well engaged with much of the Department of Family & Community Services

Self kudos

A timeline:

Sept. 16 - nbpolitico: Graham to shuffle cabinet in early October
Sept. 19 - NB mainstream media: Graham thinking about cabinet shuffle
Oct. 1 - NB mainstream media: Graham to shuffle cabinet soon

Chat live with the premier

I was doing my daily check of Communications New Brunswick and noticed that the premier is scheduled to do a live chat with the Globe & Mail on Wednesday.

I've not been able to find a promo or info on the Globe site.

An unscientific survey

There is a rahther raucous debate going over on Spink About It about the move by the Fredericton Peace Coalition to call for the removal of the yellow "Support our Troops" ribbons from store fronts.

I can see both sides of the argument and am a bit skepitcal of the mission in Afghanistan. The position I take is that we have made a commitment to our allies to be there until February 2009 and it would be very dishonest of Canada to leave before that time. At the same time, though the effectiveness of the mission remains to be seen, whether or not it is isn't really relevant at this point. Canada has a small army and our soldiers will have been there for 7.5 years but February 2009, we have done out bit for king and country and unless we start copying the U.S. in Iraq and leave our troops there for longer periods and bring them home for shorter periods, the mission isn't really sustainable, so we should do the responsible thing and advise our allies that we will be withdrawing or at least decreasing our commitment at the end of this tour.

That isn't the point I want to get in to, commenter "mikel" stated over on Spinks' blog the following in response to my view that the ribbons are about supporting our soliders who are in harms way and not the mission they are undertaking:

Not really, that may be your opinion, but as we've seen here, there is tons of support for the mission in Afghanistan. The signs CAN mean support for the specific men and women in the forces, but they often mean support for Afghanistan. In fact I'd bet that if you asked every single person who put up such a sticker or sign that close to a hundred percent would say they support the mission in Afghanistan.

I can't prove that, its just a guess, but the reasons for putting up such a sign will range from one reason to another depending on who put up the sticker. Saying that it only means what YOU think it means is kind of presumptuous.

Well this certainly isn't a scientific proof, but let's see if we can get something of a measure.

An unscientific poll What does the yellow Support of the men and women in uniform who have put their lives on line for Canada Support of the current mission in Afghanistan Support of the military and conflict in general view results

I'd value hearing your comments on this subject, the subject being: "what do you think the yellow ribbon means?" I would prefer if people could keep the comments on topic and not delve into a debate on Afghanistan itself, I am sure there are lots of places to have that conversation if we need to.

Funny 'cause it's true

My favourite U.S. presidential candidate has this amusing web short out:



h/t Ben Smith

Up-and-comers: Mike Olscamp

This post is the third in a multi-part series; please see the earlier entries on Lisa Merrithew and Rick Miles.

In 2006, Mike Olscamp became the first non-incumbent to hold the Tantramar riding for his or her party in the riding's 32 year history. A feat he managed to accomplish by a healthy margin of 20% in a year when his party suffered an overall defeat - though a narrow one.

I didn't really know much about him before the legislature met this February, but have been consistently impressed ever since.

A memorable moment came during estimates for the Department of Environment, he was questioning Minister Roland Haché in English and Haché was responding in French. The answers were not totally forthcoming with the information being sought so Olscamp continued to ask similar questions. Haché switched to English and suggested there must be something wrong with the translation but Olscamp replied in perfect French, indicating he was listening in French, and that the minister should feel free to respond in either language, he could understand both just as well.

I saw him rise to comment during the estimates process for virtually every single department and he was consistently knowledgable on the subject areas and contributed a great deal to the discourse.

The Tories would be very, very well served to move this guy from the back row to the front and give him a portfolio more complex and front of mind than Wellness, Culture and Sport. If there were a few more Mike Olscamps in the Tory caucus, there wouldn't be so many complaints about an ineffective opposition.

Thinking outside the caucus

The Telegraph-Journal reports today (in an article I wouldn't dare link to) that Jacques Dubé, former president of Service New Brunswick and current chief of staff to Minister Greg Thompson, was being lobbied to run for Tory leader but has declined.

It refers to two other potential outside candidates: "Robert Hatheway, a Fredericton orthodontist and the chief executive officer of Capital Airways, and Lisa Merrithew, 35, a bilingual Tory campaigner working in Ottawa, who is daughter of the late federal cabinet minister Gerry Merrithew."

Perhaps having about the same feelings in terms of the quality of members of the caucus, the article adds: "Several MLAs are also thought to be mulling a bid," but doesn't bother to mention any of these mopes by name.

Universities, colleges and polytechnics?

I've had a chance to read the whole report, aside from the fact that it needed another proof read (there are lots of typos, especially in the first few chapters), I think it is very good.

UNBSJ and UdeM have been quick to be very critical, they have two primary complaints: Commissioner Rick Miner is biased and the report is therefore worthless; this is not what Louis Robichaud would have wanted.

Criticism of Rick Miner is unfounded. Apparently he is on the board of Polytechnics Canada, and he is therefore biased in favour of them. Those who criticize him fail to mention that he is only one half of the commission and that the report was signed off on by a large advisory council which included such notables as Denis Losier and Elizabeth Weir. However, if that wasn't enough to ensure balance, why is Rick Miner deemed biased in favour of Polytechnics but not of UNB (of which he was vice-president for almost a decade) and colleges (he is currently president of Seneca College in Toronto)? Hooey, I say.

Similarly, I am disgusted by those who are trying to say that this is a betrayal of Louis Robichaud's legacy. It seems to me like the next logical step. Louis acted on the recommendations of a commission that said that small colleges needed to be brought together and resources and compatability between institutions had to improve. That summary applies totally to this report; it is an evolution of Louis Robichaud's vision, not a reversal.

The result for Northern New Brunswick seems to be very, very, very good. Presently, as I understand it, almost all UdeM degree programs at Edmundston and Shippigan only offer the first two years, thereafter you have to go to Moncton. Under the proposal, new Polytechnics in the northeast and northwest would continue to do this but would also offer full training (at the college, undergraduate and graduate levels) for vocations relevant to the region. This is a tremendous leap forward in access to post-secondary education for Francophones. Indeed, in addition to better education in the north, a renewed focus on one campus and more research money could make UdeM competitive with some of its better reputed counterparts in Quebec. Finally, rural Anglophones get a boost with first and second year university courses becoming available in Miramichi and Woodstock.

For UNBSJ, the benefits are not quite as obvious. They already have full college and university programs there, so it is easy to see it as taking three schools (UNBSJ, NBCC Saint John and NBCC St. Andrews) and changing them in to one and a half (Saint John Polytechnic with campuses in Saint John and St. Andrews). But it is much, much more than that. While Fredericton is the government and academic centre of New Brunswick and Moncton is the commercial centre, Saint John has and continues to be the industrial centre. A Polytechnic, while still offering university degrees in selected areas, will provide far better and more comprehensive training in the trades relevenant to working in an oil refinery or a power plant or other relevant fields, including at the unversity level as appropriate. Moreover, it would make Saint John home of - as far as I understand it - the only English Polytechnic east of Toronto, a good feather-in-cap for New Brunswick generally and Saint John specifically.

For students, I can see tremendous benefits. It maintains all that we have, makes it easier for people to study closer to home and offers far, far more choice. I don't know how many people I knew that changed degree programs when I was at UNB a few years back. I was one of them. The Commission proposes something at the front end to help students make better choices and in the middle to allow them to far more easily change programs without losing credit for the work they've already done. Moreover, the polytechnic would be perfect for the many people I know who went to unversity because they thought they had to and took a BA while they were trying to figure out what to do with their lives.

I am not totally sold on their proposal to scrap the tax holiday for university graduates (which I think could, if properly marketed, attract a lot of talented people from coast-to-coast to settle in New Brunswick) but I can appreciate where they are coming from.

This report offers the sort of good, transformational ideas that New Brunswick needs to achieve self-sufficiency, or at least get towards it. I hope that Premier Graham and Minister Doherty will move forward with a full implementation of this plan, with the possible exception of the student loan/grant/aid sections which I think merit a more thorough review; the commission is right to say some of the progams are ineffective, but they are new and not necessarily bad programs, but badly implemented programs.

Predictions are fun

Ontario election: PC 61, Lib 33, NDP 13

Nefoundland & Labrador election: PC 27,486,212; NDP 1; Lib -infinity

Something to make you proud

I wanted to share this very touching piece which I understand appeared in The Sunday Telegraph of London recently back in 2002, thanks to a reader for pointing that out:

Until the deaths of Canadian soldiers killed in Afghanistan , probably almost no one outside their home country had been aware that Canadian troops are deployed in the region. And as always, Canada will bury its dead, just as the rest of the world, as always will forget its sacrifice, just as it always forgets nearly everything Canada ever does. It seems that Canada's historic mission is to come to the selfless aid both of its friends and of complete strangers, and then, once the crisis is over, to be well and truly ignored.

Canada is the perpetual wallflower that stands on the edge of the hall, waiting for someone to come and ask her for a dance. A fire breaks out, she risks life and limb to rescue her fellow dance-goers, and suffers serious injuries. But when the hall is repaired and the dancing resumes, there is Canada, the wallflower still, while those she once helped glamorously cavort across the floor, blithely neglecting her yet again. That is the price Canada pays for sharing the North American continent with the United States, and for being a selfless friend of Britain in two global conflicts. For much of the 20th century, Canada was torn in two different directions: It seemed to be a part of the old world, yet had an address in the new one, and that divided identity ensured that it never fully got the gratitude it deserved.

Yet its purely voluntary contribution to the cause of freedom in two world wars was perhaps the greatest of any democracy. Almost 10% of Canada's entire population of seven million people served in the armed forces during the First World War, and nearly 60,000 died. The great Allied victories of 1918 were spearheaded by Canadian troops, perhaps the most capable soldiers in the entire British order of battle. Canada was repaid for its enormous sacrifice by downright neglect, its unique contribution to victory being absorbed into the popular Memory as somehow or other the work of the 'British.'

The Second World War provided a re-run. The Canadian navy began the war with a half dozen vessels, and ended up policing nearly half of the Atlantic against U-boat attack. More than 120 Canadian warships participated in the Normandy landings, during which 15,000 Canadian soldiers went ashore on D-Day alone. Canada finished the war with the third largest navy and the fourth largest air force in the world. The world thanked Canada with the same sublime indifference as it had the previous time.

Canadian participation in the war was acknowledged in film only if it was necessary to give an American actor a part in a campaign in which the United States had clearly not participated - a touching scrupulousness which, of course, Hollywood has since abandoned, as it has any notion of a separate Canadian identity. So it is a general rule that actors and filmmakers arriving in Hollywood keep their nationality - unless, that is, they are Canadian. Thus Mary Pickford, Walter Huston, Donald Sutherland, Michael J. Fox, William Shatner, Norman Jewison, David Cronenberg, Alex Trebek, Art Linkletter and Dan Aykroyd have in the popular perception become American, and Christopher Plummer, British. It is as if, in the very act of becoming famous, a Canadian ceases to be Canadian, unless she is Margaret Atwood, who is as unshakably Canadian as a moose, or Celine Dion, for whom Canada has proved quite unable to find any takers.

Moreover, Canada is every bit as querulously alert to the achievements of its sons and daughters as the rest of the world is completely unaware of them. The Canadians proudly say of themselves - and are unheard by anyone else - that 1% of the world's population has provided 10% of the world's peacekeeping forces. Canadian soldiers in the past half century have been the greatest peacekeepers on Earth - in 39 missions on UN mandates, and six on non-UN peacekeeping duties, from Vietnam to East Timor, from Sinai to Bosnia. Yet the only foreign engagement that has entered the popular on-Canadian imagination was the sorry affair in Somalia , in which out-of-control paratroopers murdered two Somali infiltrators. Their regiment was then disbanded in disgrace - a uniquely Canadian act of self-abasement for which, naturally, the Canadians received no international credit.

So who today in the United States knows about the stoic and selfless friendship its northern neighbour has given it in Afghanistan? Rather like Cyrano de Bergerac , Canada repeatedly does honourable things for honourable motives, but instead of being thanked for it, it remains something of a figure of fun. It is the Canadian way, for which Canadians should be proud, yet such honour comes at a high cost. This past year more grieving Canadian families knew that cost all too tragically well.

Graham cabinet to be shuffled?

So I heard a rumour this weekend that there may be a cabinet shuffle as soon as early October.

It would seem a bit odd to shuffle so early in the government mandate unless it is a shuffle required due to some structural changes in government that may be planned?

One presumes that at least one of the three new Moncton area caucus members (Chris Collins. Joan MacAlpine-Stiles and Wally Stiles) would be elevated to cabinet as well to make up for minimal cabinet representation there.

Any thoughts? Anyone hear something similar?

Air Canada

Is it just me or does everyone love our "national airline"?

I thought, despite their regularly awful service, that they'd never beat the time they lost my luggage 5 times out of 6 consecutive flights.

It remains to be seen but they're working hard at it. I'm in Ottawa right now trying to fly home. I get to the airport and found quickly how lucky I am to avoid checked luggage at all cost.

For those not familiar with the Ottawa airport, there are about 20 check in counters that are non-US flights at at the far end of these counters is Air Canada. When I arrived, the check in line went the full length of the counters, beyond them to the end of the airport and around a corner.

Phew, I said, I can go down to security where there is a check-in kiosk for those without checked bags. Upon arriving at said kiosk, I found that it was out of order. So, I went back upstairs and navigated my way through the angry and annoyed to the other kiosks, I waited in line for those because 4 out of 10 were out of order. The machine refused to let me select a seat and wouldn't print me a second boarding pass for my connection to Fredericton but, at least, I had a pass and no checked bags.

After sitting around for a while, and watching in astonishment as the line continued to grow, Air Canada announced over the PA - for the first time in at least the half hour I'd been there - that their computers were on the fritz and causing delays. There was no "sorry" or "thanks for your understanding" included in the announcement.

I wasn't sure if this was the same reason why, despite the fact that less than half of the flights on the board were Air Canada, 7 of 8 delayed flights had "AC" in front of them or not.

Upon going to my gate and seeing the time for my own delayed flight, I saw another flight was delayed so much it was departing for my destination 4 minutes before mine had been scheduled to. I approached the agent, waited in line, and attempted to inquire if I could get on that flight so as to make my connection. Upon reaching her, I was informed that her shift had ended 5 minutes before so she was leaving. How's that for customer service!?

Now, I'm sorry, but I work in the service industry. When my clients need help, through no fault of my company, I stay late to help them. These mopes won't stay more than 5 minutes when it is their system failure!?

I'm now on my flight, whether I'll make my connection or sleep in a terminal remains to be seen. I'll keep you posted.

In the meantime, share your Air Canada horror stories below.

UPDATE: Saved by dumb luck. My flight is scheduled for 8:30, I land at 8:02. I think it may be close but doable. Pilot announces that there is no gate, there will be a "five minute" wait. Finally get inside terminal at 8:27. I push my way to the Fredericton gate - fortunately the next one over. I ask the agent "have you boarded yet?". She responds "no". I'm confused. She asks "coming from Ottawa?". Me: "yes?". Her: "it is the same crew". So I've waited 8 minutes and they are now calling for boarding. Go figure.

Reinveting post-secondary education

This report is worth a close look. I've only read the news release so far, but the concept seems very interesting, in my view looks like to eliminate some redundancy, close some gaps and not upset the apple cart too much.

UDPATE: See my substantive post on the subject.

Up-and-comers: Lisa Merrithew

Lisa Merrtihew is a largely unknown quantity to New Brunswickers. Those that do know her will primarily know her as either Gerry Merrithew's daughter or Peter MacKay's (ex)girlfriend.

A Google search revealed only 856 results, of the top 10, five were about her relationship with Peter MacKay, three referred to her recent appointment and role as a Senior VP with PR giant Fleishman-Hillard, one was an earlier post I wrote about her potential as a leadership candidate and one was her Wikipedia article.

Though 856 results may seem low, her likely leadership opponents do about the same, though with more relevant hits (I doubt the facination with her relationship with Peter MacKay is something she would want to consume 50% of the ink used to write about her).

Here are the results of some of her possible competition: Trevor Holder (865), Margaret-Ann Blaney (795), Brad Green (761), Jody Carr (654), Madeliene Dubé (280).

However, many Tories I have spoken too are blown away with excitement when they hear of her as a possible leadership candidate, especially when compared to the other candidates.

Of those I mention above, she is the only one who is fluently bilingual. She also has a background in public relations, giving her lots of training to be effective in developing a message that ressonates with people.

In early 2006, she joined Bernard Lord's office to take over the messaging and strategy of his premiership. Though she didn't manage to prevent Lord from losing, she allowed him to carry the day in the messaging surrounding the procedural battle in the legislature, despite the fact that procedural experts like Robert Marleau and C.E.S. Franks will tell you that the Liberals were in the right. At the same time, for the first time in three years, the Tories took the lead in opinion polls and went on to win the popular vote on election day.

This cannot all be attributed to Merrithew, obviously, but there was a marked change in attitude from the premier and his government that coincided with her arrival and led to an improved public standing.

Whether or not she would be a candidate however is no sure thing. In March, she accepted a job in Toronto that I expect pays very, very well. Would an uncertain leadership race that, if successful, would be followed by an uncertain future as party leader attract her?

If she were to win, how would she enter the legislature? The only remaining Saint John area seats are those of Trevor Holder (who I doubt would want to step aside) and Margaret-Ann Blaney. Neither seat would be a sure bet to win and the occupant would have to be willing to step aside permanently as her father's old domain of Saint John East has become a left wing bastion which the Tories have only won once in the past 25 years and then with only 36% of the vote in a three-way race in the huge sweep of 1999. The Tories placed third in their attempt to retain it in 2003.

The Tories better start lobbying hard; as I look at the possibilities she seems to be the only one that could even make the 2010 election a competion, otherwise it would be a Liberal recoronation. Quite a rise from being mostly notable until 2006, and still today according to Google, as MacKay's pre-Belinda belle.

I don't believe it...

After one year since winning the popular vote but losing the election and nine months after the departure of Bernard Lord and after having seen their numbers in polls drop from 48% on election day, to 30% in August and seeing their caucus shrink by 12%... the New Brunswick Tories will be thinking about setting a date for their next leadership convention.

I am glad to see they were spurred into action by my demand that they do so last week.

I found the following a bit disturbing however. Though the provincial executive will have the formal power to set the date, Jeannot Volpe, interim leader of the biting-off-your-nose-to-spite-your-face party said: "As caucus, we will send a letter to the provincial executive to advise them of what we would like." I am not sure that sounds entirely fair, especially if there are candidates from outside of caucus running. One presumes those who are in caucus -- who have the luxury of being better known, having established relationships with the press and a wider audience of party members and having the ability to campaign fulltime without risk of loss of pay or jobs -- would favour a different date and campaign structure than those out of caucus.

One of those out of caucus who may wish to run will actually be the subject of my next up-and-comer piece.

A new prediction

Notwithstanding my earlier musings, I predict that John McCain will win the Republican nomination. That is pretty bold when one considers that the current market value for McCain is 4.70 compared to 37.40 for Rudy, 24 for Romney and 23 for Thompson. In fact, McCain is barely ahead of Libertarian and anti-war candidate Ron Paul who is sitting at 3.90.

However, it looks as though there is going to be all out warfare between Romney and Guiliani setting them both up for a lot of damage heading into an Iowa caucus which McCain has been working very long and hard in preparation for this season. I suspect a surprise finish of either first or second for McCain in Iowa (depending on how Thompson does) followed by a win or close second in New Hampsire (in competition with Romney). After that McCain wins South Carolina and the rest is history.

Obama for New Hampshire, South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico... YEEEARRRRGH?

While parousing Ben Smith's blog and watching Barack Obama's most recent ad, I was reminded of something I've noticed before: the similarity between Obama's branding, stategy and messaging and that of Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign.

First, it is interesting to note that back in 2003 prospective Senate candidate Barack Obama was an early backer of Dean and the favour was retuned in Obama being one of the first "Dean Dozen" in 2004 where the former Vermont governor directed his supporters to contribute to the campaigns of like minded Democrats around the country.

Second, we see Obama use the line "take our country back", a Howard Dean special, run as a strong outsider, fund his campaign with a large number of individual donations, and his campaign committee is even named the same was ("Obama for America" vs. "Dean for America"; as was his 2004 Senate campaign dubbed "Obama for Illinois").

One wonders if his campaign will face a fate similar to Dean? Clinton has the establishment support, Edwards and Dodd the union support and my guy Biden (with Edwards and Clinton) bests him in endorsements all putting them in better positions to mobilize the troops in Iowa. Will Obama's greener troops similarly have a hard time getting the vote out as Dean's did before him? And will a third or worse showing in Iowa derail him in the states that follow as happened Dean?

Food for thought.

Grits lead Tories 2 to 1

After a slip after the 2007 budget, which raised taxes, the Liberals have returned to the astronomical polling numbers they enjoyed shortly after taking office. The Liberals currently stand at 60% in the quarterly CRA poll, compared to 30% for the Tories.

The Telegraph-Journal has extensive reporting on the poll, which has not yet been posted on CRA's website.

The trend looks pretty good for the Grits... Maybe the Tories should think about picking a leader sometime soon?

UPDATE: The Gleaner article has more detail.

Up-and-comers

As the dog days of summer wind up but before the political chitter chatter in New Brunswick picks up volume, I thought I would try to do something interesting. The talk of Dennis Atchison running for leader of the NDP reminded me of one up-and-comer in particular.

Last year, I first wrote about Rick Miles, the 37-year-old MLA from Fredericton-Silverwood and chair of the Government Caucus, in describing him as an "early 20s student" who had no chance against NDP star Atchison and Tory health minister Brad Green. Whoops. I mean it was close wasn't it? You say he won by 7 points and in 24 of 32 polls and tied in a 25th? Ahem.

So I have already made an earlier mea culpa on this one. I am able to restore a bit of my ego by noting that everyone else was of pretty much the same view. As I have before, I tip my hat to Mr. Miles for a tremendous victory.

Since then he re-surprised me in winning the chairmanship of the Liberal Government Caucus; an equally impressive feat for a first-time MLA. I understand he played a significant role in the defection of Mr. & Mrs. Stiles from the PCs and he has been one of the strongest backbench defenders of the government on the floor of the legislature.

If he didn't have the misfortune of sharing a city with T. J. Burke, Greg Byrne and Kelly Lamrock, I would say he was a sure bet to be in the cabinet whenever Mr. Graham decides to do a shuffle. With that sort of competition, it seems unlikely, but Mr. Miles has surprised us before. Keep an eye on this guy.

This will be the first in a series of profiles on rising stars inside and outside of the legislture in New Brunswick politics. Drop me a line or leave a comment if you would like to suggest someone.

No, I am not dead

Thanks to those readers who've dropped me a few emails (they like me, they really like me!). I am still alive and kicking, still reading blogs and commenting occassionally. I spent a good part of the latter half of August on holiday and really haven't seen anything too exciting to post about that isn't covered elsewhere.

A few random thoughts:

Ontario I'm not too keen on Dalton McGuinty or the proportional representation proposal being voted on there.

United States I've really been enjoying reading Ben Smith's Democratic blog and Jonathan Martin's Republican blog on the the presidential election at politico.com. If you are a nerd, have lots of free time and are interested in Amercian politics, check them out. They both post at least a half dozen times a day, often much more, on the happenings. The presidential election is heating up as people supposedly start paying attention after Labour Day. Fred Thompson is set to announce officially on Leno tomorrow night. My choice, Joe Biden, has been running ads in Iowa and I am curious to see if that will allow him to at least get in to the double digits.

Spinks Congrats on finishing the 101 countdown and kudos to you for appending the more optimistic 10 who aren't.

New Brusnwick I say again HELLO OPPOSITION PARTIES??? The NDP convention is only 5 weeks away and I don't think there are any declared candidates; please correct me if I am wrong. The election was over 11 months ago, there seems to be no hint of a date for a Tory leadership race either, though they are holding an AGM the weekend after the NDP is supposedly voting in a leader.

UPDATE: According to that wonderful resource that is Wikipedia; I now learn that their are two candidates for the NDP leadership: Dennis Atchison and Roger Duguay, both fairly strong candidates. Should be interesting.