Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Funny 'cause it's true

My favourite U.S. presidential candidate has this amusing web short out:

h/t Ben Smith


NB taxpayer said...

I like him too, nbp. But if I was running his campaign, I'd have five words for him: tone it down a notch.

He's one of the most comical, charismatic, intelligent and witty candidates in the race. However, that side of him is often overshadowed by his deprecatory manner on so many issues.

People don't like to be preached to, they like to be listened to.

nbpolitico said...

You're right. It depends on the issue but sometimes he certainly does come off as talking down to people; looking at it in context it seems to be rooted in frustration with the fact that so many candidates get away with talking in doublespeak and fluff when he wants to talk about the truth and reality. However, context is rarely included in reports and can even be missed by the casual listener especially when he or she thinks they are being spoken down too.

His chances are ridiculously slim, but he does seem to be building something of an Iowa organization and it was announced today the whole of his skelton campaign was moving there so, you never know, stranger things have happened...

NB taxpayer said...

Not that I endorse any of the candidates, but I see this one coming down to a very bitter battle between Hillary and Edwards after NH.

Like all successful democrats before him in the last four decades, Edwards will try to convince southern voters that he is more electable than his opponent --- Hillary.

So far he has run his campaign in a stealth-like, cautionary mode wherein he has positioned himself as the quiet third option in hopes that Obama's train will ultimately derail.

On the other hand, Hillary is banking on a few huge victories early so that delegates from other camps don't have a reason to mobilize. If they do, she could be in trouble because there are a lot of delegates out there who don't have her as their second choice.

Should be interesting. Oh, for the record, I think your guy is working with Hillary. They seem to team up very nicely in debates. I wouldn't be surprised to see him release his delegates to Hillary after he pulls out. Not a big deal since i don't think he was ever in it to win it. Furthermore, I think he would be much more comfortable and effective in the role of Secretary of State.

Which, btw, will be a very challenging gig no matter what party enters the whitehouse after November 08.

nbpolitico said...

I am not sure I would agree that Biden is in cahouts with Clinton, he went after her hardest of all candidates in the debate last night.

I do agree however that the race will come down to Clinton and Edwards, however I think it will be similar to the Kerry and Edwards race last year with Edwards hanging in there but just barely. With the new primary calendar, I think that we'll probably see something like: Edwards wins Iowa, Clinton wins New Hampshire and by that time Obama will have been so badly beaten in the expectations game that he will not be able to carry on. Edwards will likely carry South Carolina as well but with the new primary calendar he will not be able to collect and process money, produce ads and buy air time fast enough to compete with the impressive war chest that Hillary has contrasted to his in the Feb 5 states and it will be all over.

I also agree that Biden would be a good Secretary of State and he is positioning himself well for that role.

NB taxpayer said...

I agree, Edwards has some $$$ issues that will hamper him down the stretch. Although, there are four factors which are a little different than in '04.

Firstly, Edwards started near the basement and didn't gain momentum until just before the Iowa caucus where he eventually finished second ahead of frontrunner Dean. This time he will be positioned in the middle of the pack before entering Iowa. Furthermore, as you said, he has a good shot at actually winning the Iowa caucus this time around.

Secondly, I don't think he has to worry about anybody else making a run at the frontrunner, like Kerry did with Dean. IMO, that stole a bit of his momentum going into NH and ultimately deflated his campaign after South Carolina and ultimately Georgia. I think if he wins NH, it a whole diffeent kettle of cod than in '04, especially with the strength of the ABH movement.

Thirdly, gender may prove to be a huge factor either way coming down the stretch. Depending on what the mood ultimately is after everyone but Edwards and Hillary drop off the ticket could be the deciding factor or push for the Edwards campaign. Such a factor may offset the $$$ gap between the two candidates.

And lastly, the Obama factor. As it stands right now, if Obama finishes second, Edwards will throw his support over to him and vice versa. Much like the Dion-Kennedy agreement last December. This could prove to be very valuable coming down the stretch as well because Hillary managed to take the highest percentage of the African American delegates. However, Obama knows if he has a chance to get on anybody's ticket, it will be with Edwards. So his presence with southern voters, mostly black southern voters, may help the Edwards cause in key states leading up to Tsunami Tuesday.

No matter what happens, for political junkies like us, the beer and popcorn will be flowing from January right through 'til March. lol

nbpolitico said...

Indeed, American politics are always the funnest to watch and this will be the most exciting race since 1976. Ironically, I would argue that the 2006 Liberal convention was the most exciting in Canadian politics since the Tory leadership of 1976. I just made the connection now, how interesting.

Anyway... I would agree with your analysis if Edwards can win New Hampshire, but I don't really think that that is in the cards. He has never had a strong base there and is no where near as competitive. I can't imagine him beating Hillary in New Hampshire, which still gives her a the edge and makes it harder for him to raise money as quickly as he would have to. Now mind you if he sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire (and, for fair measure, Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina), I'd say he has it won if not on Feb 5, not long afterwards.