Friday, September 07, 2007

A new prediction

Notwithstanding my earlier musings, I predict that John McCain will win the Republican nomination. That is pretty bold when one considers that the current market value for McCain is 4.70 compared to 37.40 for Rudy, 24 for Romney and 23 for Thompson. In fact, McCain is barely ahead of Libertarian and anti-war candidate Ron Paul who is sitting at 3.90.

However, it looks as though there is going to be all out warfare between Romney and Guiliani setting them both up for a lot of damage heading into an Iowa caucus which McCain has been working very long and hard in preparation for this season. I suspect a surprise finish of either first or second for McCain in Iowa (depending on how Thompson does) followed by a win or close second in New Hampsire (in competition with Romney). After that McCain wins South Carolina and the rest is history.


NB taxpayer said...

Do you anticipate his absence from the Iowa straw poll, a poll Romney won, to affect him in the real deal in January?

Historically, it has been a tradition for Republican presidential candidates. I'm with you though, I think many voters who are unimpressed with the flip-flopping of both Giuliani and Romney on moral issues like abortion, will give McCAin another look, especially since he has positioned himself more, this time, as the hard right establishment candidate.

nbpolitico said...

I think if just he had opted out of the straw poll it would do him more harm than it will due to Guiliani and Thompson's non participation.

Frankly what hurts him more in my view is that he skipped Iowa altogether and didn't participate in the caucuses in 2000, some will remember that and not be impressed.

However, Iowa is the only part of his staff operation that didn't suffer much turnover when his campaign was cut back in July, so on balance, I think it will sort itself out.

Another one to watch will be Mike Huckabee if Fred, Rudy and Mitt all falter he too has a chance at being a surprise beneficiary. However, a big win (second would count as a big win) is a bit harder for Mike to capitalize on because he has no real base in New Hampsire or South Carolina, the states that follow.

Anonymous said...

now that is a gutsy call!

my thoughts:

romney is really doing well in iowa, if he can finish one or two in nh after an iowa win he could win it all. my pick to win.

thompson has possibly peaked already. he is a great presence though. but nobody has heard him speak on truly tough issues with anything different. he needs to be controversial to re-ignite his campaign.

guiliani has too many early conservative states to gain a lot of momentum. poor showings in ia, nh, sc, would really set him back. the newer front loading of primaries will help him the most. he is the real law and order candidate though, and some social conservatives could hold their nose and support him, since they never get what they are promised anyway.

huckabee was the real winner in the ia straw poll, but only stands a chance if he was to actually win in ia. if he wins, he then needs sc desperately.

mccain can only win if romney or guiliani (or both) self destruct. this would possibly open up a wedge for him to replace one of them, since he was a star not long ago.

nbpolitico said...

mccain can only win if romney or guiliani (or both) self destruct.

Actually, that is exactly what I predicted. I agree, if Romney wins Iowa, as he appears set to do, he will probably take the whole thing. Romney (with the possible exception of McCain) is the best known candidate in New Hampshire, as most of the folk there get their TV from Boston where Romney was governor until not too long ago. No matter what, I think Romney has at least second in New Hampshire. Then, barring a huge stall in momentum, he also has the most money allowing him to put a lot of ads up in the big states going on Feb 5.

However, my prediction was routed in the theory that Romney and Guiliani would tear each other apart going in to Iowa, turning caucus goers off and making an opening for McCain. A McCain win in Iowa would set him up for wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina where he has a natural base and would give him the momentum to win some states on Feb 5. Thus, the whole theory of a McCain win comes down to a Romney/Guiliani meltdown in Iowa.