Monday, January 14, 2008

TTTT

The Tsunami Tuesday Test ("TTTT" - pronounced te-te-te-tah) is a contest in which you can guess who will win what in the Democratic and Republican primaries and caucuses on February 5, 2008. On that day 50.9% of Democratic delegates and 44% of Republican delegates will be chosen.

There will be several levels of entry in this contest:
  • easy: Predict which order (1st, 2nd, etc) the candidates will finish, in terms of total number of delegates won on Feb 5, for each party. For each correct candidate you get 5 points and a bonus of 50 points for a correct party set. Maximum number of points would be 155, minimum 0.
  • medium: Predict the percentage of delegates won (+/- 5%), for each candidate in each party. For each correct candidate you get 10 points and a bonus of 200 points for a correct party set. Maximum number of points would be 510, minimum 0.
  • hard: Predict the top three candidates for each party in each state. For every correct first place finish, you get 50 points, for each incorrect first place finish, you lose 20. For each correct second place finish, you get 30 points, for each incorrect second place finish you lose 10. For each correct third place finish, you get 20 points, for each incorrect third place finish, you lose 5. Maximum number of points would be 4300, minimum -1505.
  • really, really hard: Predict the percentage of popular vote won (+/- 5%), for each candidate, in each party, in each state. For each correct candidate you get 50 points, for each incorrect candidate you lose 30 points. Maximum number of points would be 11800, minimum -7080
DEADLINE: I will accept entries until noon on January 30, 2008 5 p.m. on Friday, February 1. That should allow time for everyone to digest the results of everything happening prior to Tsunami Tuesday (except for the Maine Republican caucuses Feb 1-3).

THERE WILL BE ONE WINNER, it is up to contestants to determine their level of risk and enter one of the four contests, however only one winner will be declared based on the total number of points. The winner will be entitled to a link* at the top right of this website for at least one year. And bragging rights! (*within reason; I will not link to illegal, explicit or questionable sites)

FOR THE PURPOSES OF THIS CONTEST there are 11 candidates, 5 Democrats (Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama) and 6 Republicans (Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney, Thompson). Any other candidates whose names appear on primary or caucus ballots of states will be ignored. Should any of these candidates drop out, their names will almost certainly remain on ballots and will still be considered for the contest.

TO ENTER THE CONTEST post a comment to this thread or send an email. Entries by anonymous posting cannot be accepted as it will be impossible to determine authentically who the winner is. To enter by commenting, please use a blogger account or include your email address. If you wish to remain anonymous, you may do so by e-mailing me and I will guard your anonymity. My email address is nbpolitico@gmail.com.

Here is the run down of states that are voting and what is at stake on a state-by-state basis:

Alabama primaries
- Democrats: 60 delegates, of which 52 will be elected that day, are chosen by proportial representation; Primary open to all voters
- Republicans: 48 delegates, of which 45 will be elected that day, chosen on a quasi-winner-take-all basis (winner-take-all if the winner gets more than 50% of the vote, if not the winner and other candidates with 20+% split the delegates); Primary open to all voters

Alaska caucuses
- Democrats: 18 delegates, of which 13 will be chosen that day, are chosen in a similar fashion to Iowa with a 15% viability threshold; Only registered Democrats can particpate but you can change your registration at the voting site
- Republicans: 29 delegats, of which 26 will be chosen that day, awarded by proportional reperesentation; Only registered Republicans can particpate but you can change your registration at the voting site

Arizona primaries
- Democrats: 67 delegates, of which 56 will be chosen that day; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 53 delegates, of which 50 will be chosen that day, winner-take-all by district (24) and state wide (26); Only registered Republicans can vote

Arkansas primaries
- Democrats: 47 delegates, 35 of which will be chosen that day, awarded by proportional representation to candidates receiving greater than 15%; Primary open to all voters
- Republicans: 34 delegates, 31 of which will be chosen that day, distict delegates (12) awarded by winner-take-all, the balance of delegates (19) awarded by giving one delegate to each candidate receiving 10% or better and the balance to the winner; Primary open to all voters

California primaries
- Democrats: 441 delegates, 370 of which will be chosen that day, awarded by proportional representation to candidates receiving greater than 15%; Registered Democrats and those registered as "decline to state" can participate
- Republicans: 173 delegates, 170 of which will be chosen that day, winner-take-all by district (159) and state wide (11); Only registered Republicans can vote

Colorado caucuses
- Democrats: 71 delegates, 55 of which will be chosen that day, awarded by proportional representation; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 46 delegates, 43 of which will be chosen that day, delegates are not bound but a presidential preference poll will be held (similar to Iowa and Maine); Only registered Republicans can vote

Connecticut primaries
- Democrats: 60 delegates, 48 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 30 delegates, 27 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all; Only registered Republicans can vote

Delaware primaries
- Democrats: 23 delegates, 10 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 18 delegates, 15 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all; Only registered Republicans can vote

Georgia primaries
- Democrats: 103 delegates, 87 of which will be chosen that day, awarded proportionally to those getting more than 15%; Primary open to all voters
- Republicans: 72 delegates, 69 of which will be chosen that day, winner-take-all by district (39) and state wide (30); Primary open to all voters

Idaho caucus
- Demcorats: 23 delegates, 18 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all; Caucus open to all voters
- Republicans do not vote until May 27

Illinois primaries
- Democrats: 185 delegates, 100 of which will be chosen that day, winner take all by district, state-wide delegates chosen by proportional representation; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 70 delegates, 67 of which will be chose that day, winner take all; Primary open to all voters

Kansas caucus
- Democrats: 40 delegates, none of which will be chosen that day as this is a first step to larger processes similar to Iowa, for all intentes and purposes however this will set the dominoes in motion to chose 32 delegates, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; Only registered Democrats can participate
- Republicans vote on February 9

Massachusetts primaries
- Democrats: 121 delegates, of which 81 will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; Only registered Democrats can participate
- Republicans: 40 delegates, of which 37 will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; Only registered Republicans can participate

Minnesota caucuses
- Democrats: 88 delegates, of which 72 will be chosen that day; all registered voters can participate
- Republicans: 41 delegates, 38 of which will be chosen that day, delegates are not bound but a presidential preference poll will be held (similar to Iowa and Maine);

Missouri primaries
- Democrats: 88 delegates, of which 72 will be chosen that day; all registered voters can participate
- Republicans: 58 delegates, of which 55 will be chosen that day, winner-take-all by district (27) and state wide (28); all registered voters can participate

Montana caucus
- Democrats vote on June 3.
- Republicans: 25 delegates, of which 22 will be chosen that day, winner-take-all; caucus is closed to all but Republican party office holders

New Jersey primaries
- Democrats: 127 delegates, of which 93 will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; Only registered Democrats can participate
- Republicans: 52 delegates, of which 49 will be chosen that day, winner-take-all; Only registered Republicans can participate

New Mexico caucus
- Democrats: Technically a caucus (because the election is overseen by the party and not the state), the media has deemed it a primary because absentee and advanced voting are permitted. 38 delegates, 26 of which will be chosen that day; Only registered Democrats can particpate
- Republicans vote on June 3.

New York primaries
- Democrats: 280 delegates, of which 232 will be chosen that day; Only registered Democrats can vote
- Republicans: 101 delegates, 98 of which will be chosen that day, winner-take-all; Only registered Republicans can vote

North Dakota primaries
- Democrats: 21 delegates, 17 of which will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15% unless one candidate gets 66% in which case it becomes winner-take-all; All registered voters can participate
- Republicans: 26 delegates, all of which will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15% unless one candidate gets 66% in which case it becomes winner-take-all; All registered voters can participate

Oklahoma primaries
- Democrats: 47 delegates, 38 of which will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; Only registered Democrats can participate
- Republicans: 41 delegates, 38 of which will be chosen that day, winner-take-all by district (15) and state wide (23); Only registered Republicans can particpate

Tennessee primaries
- Democrats: 85 delegates, of which 68 will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15%; All registered voters can participate
- Republicans: 55 delegates, of which 52 will be chosen that day, proportional representation for those getting at least 15% unless one candidate gets 66% in which case it becomes winner-take-all; All registered voters can participate

Utah primaries
- Democrats: 29 delegates, 23 of which will be chosen that day; Registerd Democrats and independents can particpate
- Republicans: 36 delegates, 33 of which will be chosen that day, winner-take-all; Only registered Republicans can participate

West Virginia convention
- Democrats vote on May 13.
- Republicans: 30 delegates, 18 of which will be chosen that day at a central convention that all registered Republicans can attend, 9 additional delegates will be chosen at the May 13 primary, winner-take-all

Sources: CQ Politics Primary Guide, New Mexico Democratic Party, electionprojection.com
TOTAL DELEGATES AT STAKE:
- Democrats: 1598
- Republicans: 1009

2 comments:

nbt said...

Ahhh, a challenge...I like that. I guess it's time for me to get up-to-date on states like Idaho, Montana and North Dakota. ;-)

I'll post this link on facebook and with a few friends via email.

nbpolitico said...

Cool, thanks for the idea NBT!!