Monday, January 14, 2008

Predicting Michigan

Tomorrow the Republican campaign of Mitt Romney could be ended or brought back from life support, the campaign of John McCain could become that of the "clear frontrunner" and, less likely, the campaign of Mike Huckabee could be deemed "impossible to stop".

Romney's campaign rested wholly on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, both of which he lost, albeit by narrow margins. Tomorrow, in the state he was born and raised, he has his last, best chance to save his campaign.

John McCain is now leading in almost all national polls after nearly tying for third in Iowa despite not putting in a real effort there and winning New Hampshire. If McCain wins in Michigan tomorrow (where he also won in 2000), he would be a likely winner in South Carolina (where he runs a close second in most polls) and an almost sure win in Florida (where he already leads the polls). If he managed to win New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Florida back-to-back (far from a sure thing), the race would be all over but the crying.

Mike Huckabee's campaign, despite a really, really impressive third place win in New Hampshire, has been deemed by the media to be one that can only win in the Religious South. Michigan has been deemed a two-man race between Romney and McCain. If Huckabee were to win here, it would give him more momentum than any candidate has ever carried out of a state ever anywhere and he would sweep South Carolina putting him on strong footing in Florida.

I honestly believe that the race could go any of those ways. However, here is my prediction:

McCain 31
Romney 27
Huckabee 21
Giuliani 10
Thompson 6
Paul 5

McCain will win thanks to the support of independents and also Democrats who will largely be disinterested in their uncontested contest. That may give him something of a hollow victory allowing Huckabee to carry the day in South Carolina but it will still put the nail into Romney's coffin.

On the Democratic side the following options will be on the ballot: Hillary Clinton, the withdrawn Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and "uncommitted". It is expected to be a race between Clinton and "uncommitted" with supporters of Obama and Edwards encouraging folks to vote for the latter and the state party pushing it as an option to keep turnout up. It should go to Clinton quite easily. My prediction would be:

Clinton 55
"Uncommitted" 32
Kucinich 10
Dodd 2
Gravel 1


NB taxpayer said...

Don't forget Ron Paul's blimp. lol Anyway, I'm a sucker for punishment, so here goes:

Romney 30
McCain 28
Huckadone 20
Giuliani 9
Paul 7 (newsletter?)
Thompson 4

nbpolitico said...

I didn't think of the newsletter fiasco, though that is largely old news, it was first reported when he was running for the House in '96 and I think his folks are too hardcore.

You think Romney will win eh? I have no idea where this campaign ends up if he gets new life; almost certainly going to the convention which would be crazy.

nbt said...

Actually, I've never witnessed an open convention [in the US] since I got into politics. I hope it happens.

Anonymous said...

Mitt Romney is my hero.

le politico said...

I'm not sure you've factored in the hometown-boy-made-good effect for Romney in Michigan, and how soft-right Michigan Republicans can be.

While I agree Romney is done and has zero chance of becoming the nominee, it won't be because of Michigan.

Romney 30
McCain 26
Huckabee 23
Thompson 8
Giuliani 8
Paul 5

My gut says Romney could win by an even wider margin..