Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Tsunami predictions galore

I predict that next Tuesday Clinton and Obama will roughly split the delegates with a slight edge to Clinton and that the race will continue until at least March 4 if not to the Pennsylvania primay on April 22 or beyond.

I predict that next Tuesday John McCain will win over half of the delegates at stake and all but wrap up the nomination, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney will split the remaining delegates about evenly with a slight edge to Huckabee. Romney will withdraw and Mike Huckabee may or may not continue, briefly, to compete in the southern states to follow.

With respect to my TTTT contest, I will not actually be competing but, for the sake of interest, here are my guesses for each category and, therefore, my broader predictions for next week:

EASY [order of national finishers in number of delegates]
Republicans: McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Paul, Thompson, Giuliani
Democrats: Obama, Clinton, Kucinich, Edwards, Gravel

MEDIUM [order of national finishers in percentage of of delegates]
Republicans: McCain 53%, Huckabee 24%, Romney 22%, Paul 1%, Thompson 0%, Giuliani 0%
Democrats: Clinton 53%, Obama 47%, Kucinich 0%, Edwards 0%, Gravel 0%

HARD [top three in each state] / REALLY, REALLY HARD [percentages of all candidates in each state]

Alabama:

> Democrats:
Obama 48%
Clinton 44%
Edwards 7%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:
Huckabee 44%
McCain 26%
Romney 19%
Thompson 5%
Paul 5%
Giuliani 1%

Alaska:

> Democrats:
Clinton 55%
Obama 41%
Gravel 4%
Edwards 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:
Romney 29%
McCain 27%
Paul 22%
Huckabee 15%
Thompson 5%
Giuliani 1%

Arizona:

> Democrats:
Clinton 56%
Obama 31%
Edwards 9%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 1%

> Republicans:
McCain 67%
Romney 14%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 8%
Thompson 0%
Giuliani 0%

Arkansas:

> Democrats:
Clinton 62%
Obama 28%
Edwards 9%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:
Huckabee 51%
McCain 32%
Romney 14%
Thompson 2%
Paul 1%
Giuliani 0%

California:

> Democrats:
Clinton 48%
Obama 41%
Edwards 6%
Kucinich 4%
Gravel 1%

> Republicans:
McCain 45%
Romney 22%
Huckabee 18%
Paul 7%
Thompson 5%
Giuliani 3%

Colorado:

> Democrats:
Clinton 49%
Obama 47%
Edwards 4%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:
McCain 38%
Romney 34%
Huckabee 21%
Paul 5%
Giuliani 1%
Thompson 0%

Connecticut:

> Democrats:
Clinton 59%
Obama 40%
Gravel 0%
Edwards 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:
McCain 58%
Romney 29%
Huckabee 6%
Paul 4%
Giuliani 3%
Thompson 0%

Delaware:

> Democrats:
Clinton 49%
Obama 48%
Edwards 2%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:
McCain 65%
Romney 15%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 3%
Paul 2%
Thompson 0%

Georgia:

> Democrats:
Obama 54%
Clinton 40%
Edwards 5%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:

Huckabee 39%
Romney 30%
McCain 26%
Thompson 3%
Paul 2%
Giuliani 0%

Idaho:

> Democrats:
Clinton 61%
Obama 37%
Edwards 2%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

Illinois:

> Democrats:
Obama 61%
Clinton 37%
Edwards 2%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:

McCain 44%
Romney 38%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 7%
Giuliani 1%
Thompson 0%

Kansas:

> Democrats:
Obama 66%
Clinton 28%
Edwards 6%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

Massachusetts:

> Democrats:
Obama 55%
Clinton 42%
Edwards 2%
Gravel 0%
Kucinich 0%

> Republicans:

McCain 44%
Romney 38%
Huckabee 9%
Giuliani 4%
Paul 3%
Thompson 0%

Minnesota:

> Democrats:
Clinton 47%
Obama 40%
Edwards 9%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%

> Republicans:

McCain 47%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 13%
Paul 6%
Giuliani 2%
Thompson 0%

Missouri:

> Democrats:
Obama 49%
Clinton 42%
Edwards 9%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

Romney 39%
Huckabee 33%
McCain 24%
Thompson 2%
Paul 2%
Giuliani 0%

Montana:

> Republicans:

Huckabee 41%
Romney 39%
McCain 20%
Thompson 0%
Paul 0%
Giuliani 0%

New Jersey:

> Democrats:
Clinton 49%
Obama 47%
Edwards 3%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

McCain 71%
Giuliani 10%
Romney 8%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 2%
Thompson 0%

New Mexico:

> Democrats:
Clinton 62%
Obama 33%
Edwards 4%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

New York:

> Democrats:
Clinton 58%
Obama 40%
Edwards 2%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

McCain 61%
Huckabee 20%
Giuliani 9%
Romney 6%
Paul 3%
Thompson 0%

North Dakota:

> Democrats:
Clinton 62%
Obama 35%
Edwards 2%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

McCain 41%
Romney 33%
Huckabee 23%
Paul 2%
Thompson 0%
Giuliani 0%

Oklahoma:

> Democrats:
Clinton 46%
Obama 40%
Edwards 13%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

Huckabee 36%
McCain 30%
Romney 29%
Paul 4%
Thompson 1%
Giuliani 0%

Tennessee:

> Democrats:
Obama 49%
Clinton 48%
Edwards 3%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

Huckabee 40%
Romney 29%
McCain 22%
Thompson 8%
Paul 1%
Giuliani 0%

Utah:

> Democrats:
Clinton 51%
Obama 48%
Edwards 0%
Kucinich 0%
Gravel 0%

> Republicans:

Romney 67%
Huckabee 17%
McCain 12%
Paul 4%
Thompson 0%
Giuliani 0%

West Virginia:

> Republicans:

McCain 51%
Huckabee 32%
Romney 17%
Paul 0%
Thompson 0%
Giuliani 0%

3 comments:

nbt said...

Wow, that's one long list nbp. I can honestly say without reservation that I did less work in my first year of university than I have with TTTT. lol

nbpolitico said...

And it is all your fault, you and your crazy ideas :@

nbt said...

I know. You gotta stop taking my advice. lol