Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Now what?

Well the most confusing possible result happened tonight: Mitt Romney won Michigan. It looks like the result will be quite similar to NH for the two leads with their roles reversed.

It looks now like a battle royale between Huckabee and McCain in South Carolina and a likely Romney win in Nevada going into Florida.

But again, as I've stressed over and over, I think the big story is just how far Giuliani has fallen. It is incredible how much support he has left on the table.

In Iowa he always ran in the low teens and ended up with 4%. In New Hampshire he often ran near 20 and got around 10. In Michigan, he often led polls and what is happening right now? He is fighting for sixth place with UNCOMMITTED. In fact the closest race tonight is between Giuliani and uncommitted. Unbeliveable I think.

If Giuliani gets essentially single digits in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada and never does better than fourth and regularly does worse than Ron Paul will it be possible for him to be taken seriously?

I can understand skipping Iowa, though he never formally skipped it. But he could have easily held third in NH and he could have fought in Michigan for a strong third or possible second. And he could have won Nevada. I think that this was a ludicrously weak strategy.

3 comments:

Rob said...

I believe Rudy has pulled all money from everywhere except Florida. As Dennis Miller says, he's all in on Florida, and chasing an inside straight.

So far, things have gone his way. Three primaries, three winners. Assuming the field remains muddled, a Guiliani victory in Florida is supposed to kick his joementum into high gear before Super Tuesday.

nbpolitico said...

Yeah, but I don't see how it happens. His support is obviously very, very soft if he can go from 15 to 4 in Iowa in a month and from 20 to 8 in New Hampshire in a month and 19 to 3 in Michigan in a month. He is doing some work in Florida, so he won't sink quite as low but I don't see how he holds together a win in the face of competition from other campaigners and their momentum for other states. Rudy gets second, at best, in Florida, I think. More likely third or fourth. Before the others arrive to campaign it is already a statistical four-way tie in most polls.

nbt said...

If Giuliani gets essentially single digits in Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Nevada and never does better than fourth and regularly does worse than Ron Paul will it be possible for him to be taken seriously?

I don't see how considering his cop out was the evangelicals, which were not a big factor in Michigan, NH and Nevada. Not to mention, for a guy who claims he is the only electable tory in 50 states, he sure is getting off to a bad start (0-4).