Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Happy Primary Day!

Like last Thursday, nerds of the world will be tuning in to watch the results tonight, this time from the New Hampshire primary.

On Friday, I posted my post-Iowa predictions for New Hampshire. At the time, people were fairly skeptical of my prediction that Obama would score a double digit win tonight but, if polls are to be believed, he will do just that. On the Republican side, it doesn't appear that McCain will beat Romney by as large of a margin as I imagined, but I am not sure if polls have quite picked up the fallout from Romney's poor performance in the widely watched ABC/WMUR debate on Saturday night.

I stand by my predictions. Have fun tonight!

4 comments:

nbt said...

I think McCain will be hurt by the fact that a majority of independents will cast their votes on the democratic side [tonight].

In other word, it's a lot like in 2000 when Bill Bradley was hurt by McCain's early surge over Bush (i.e. the New Jersey senator came a few percentage points away from defeating a sitting veep only to lose momentum from McCain's unlikely upset).

It's funny because I think there is a little payback this time as Bradley endorsed Obama just before the NH primary. A little lesson learned from '04 when he endorsed Dean before Iowa. A move which may hurt McCain.

nbpolitico said...

Yes certainly the increased play by indpendendents in the Democratic race will hurt McCain but people forget McCain won among Republicans alone in 2000. He has improved his bonafides among Republicans due to his strident support of the war and immigration, his conservative sore point, isn't as big an issue in New Hampshire as it is in states that aren't 1000s of miles away from the Mexican border.

Moreover, reports from the NH government are out modelling turnout for the Republican race (based on early numbers) at 240,000 of which 60,000 (a full quarter) is independent.

For the sake of argument, you can assume McCain got 75% of the indy vote and Giulinai 25%. So that gives McCain about 19% of the vote before Romney gets past zero.

These numbers make me even more confident that McCain will win big today, I think he beats Romney about 35-25 among Republicans and 70+ to zip among Indpendents.

nbt said...

My predictions (NH):

Democrats

Obama 36 per cent
Clinton 27 per cent
Edwards 23 per cent
Richardson 1 per cent

GOP

McCain 34 per cent
Romney 29 per cent
Paul 10 per cent
Giuliani 9 per cent
Huckadone 9 per cent
Thompson 3 per cent

* based on NH debates and Iowa

Anonymous said...

Clinton and McCain.

The New World Order can`t afford a loss right now.

Join the Ron Paul Revolution!