Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Post-Nevada Democratic analysis

Well I really missed the boat on Nevada, having placed Edwards in second when, in fact, he barely registered. I suspect his support was fairly more substantial than the 4% of county delegates he received and that he was a victim of the viability threshold as was the case in Iowa for Richardson and Biden.

Indeed if you look at the entrace polls from Iowa, Richardson walked in with 7% of the vote and Biden with about 5%. However, as I explained, 14% in any precinct is worth 0% of the county delegates which is what is reported as analogous to "popular vote". Exit (or in this case entrance) polls are not an exact measure of real support by certainly these gentleman likely received closer to 7% and 5% of popular vote as opposed to the 2% and 1% of county delegates they registered.

In Nevada, though he only got 4% of county delegates, the entrance polls show he actually had popular support of 8%. Either way though, that is pretty low. Mea culpa.

Moving on to South Carolina, some interesting things to consider:

  • Hillary Clinton is essentially abandoning the state to focus on February 5. Bill Clinton will state in the state to focus on the Black vote.

  • Barack Obama won an amazing 83% of Black voters in Nevada, Bill's efforts will chink away at that but I expect Obama will still rack up massive numbers in that demographic.

  • Bill Schneider, who in my view is the smartest pundit in U.S. politics, says Edwards won the South Carolina/Congression Black Caucus debate last night.

  • Edwards won 52% of the white vote in the 2004 S.C. primary. Obama and Bill Clinton are focussing on the opposite demographic, leaving Edwards lots of room to focus on his base.
Thusly, my prediction:

Obama 41
Edwards 30
Clinton 27

This could be somewhat hopeful thinking because it would make February 5 soooo interesting.


nbt said...

As I see it, Edwards didn't win the debate because nobody was an outright winner, mostly due to the level of debate.

Furthermore, Edwards just reinforced [to me] lastnight and to the Democratic black caucus why many are very disappointed in his campaign at this juncture (or since Iowa), in that, he hasn't adjusted his message one iota.

At this point, it's a sad to see such a great politician (who I admire on the democratic side) go out in such an embarrassing manner.

My picks fo SC:

Hillary 42
Obama 39
*Edwards 16

* I'm probably the only one picking an upset here, but as I see it, an Edwards collapse will benefit Hillary with white voters.

NOT Howard Dean said...


nbt said...

The one thing I like about your Edwards prediction is that you haven't given up on him after [he] completely bottomed out in Nevada.

I don't know if you caught that precinct on Saturday which was broadcasted live on CNN in the afternoon, but when the precinct captains were called up to the front to orgainize their troops, there were no representatives from the Edwards team which left the two individuals (that did show up with their Edwards buttons on) puzzled to why they were being left out. One of them could be heard shouting, "what about Edwards?"

I think at this point, it is safe to say that his supporters are not being honest with him. Which will be hell when it comes time to organize your GOTV plan.

I read this quick post and was quickly reminded of the heartache I went through with Tony Clement's campaign not once, but two times as his eastern chair during both his leadership runs. If you're short on cash and u can't get 'em out, you can't win. Period.

nbpolitico said...

A good point NBT but, and maybe I'm on crack, but he did win SC four years ago and is from NC where he has a bunch of committed folk who could easily hope the border to organize.

NB taxpayer said...

True, the reason he still has hope in South Carolina is because, as he said on Letterman, "I talk like this!!" (Southern slang)

Although, even though he still has a connection with the area, I still think that will not trump the fact that many of his campaign team are now talking a big game, but not producing. That hurts on GOTV day, let me tell u.

nbt said...

Wayyyyyy off!! But I wasn't far off with Edwards. LOL!!