Wednesday, January 23, 2008


On Monday, I predicted that Mike Huckabee could win the Florida primary, especially if Fred Thompson were to drop out of the race.

Two days is a long time in politics.

Since then, though Thompson has dropped out, Huckabee has decided to all but take a pass on Florida. I think that that is a fatal mistake. As I mentioned in my post Monday, a whomping 58% of Florida Republican primary voters are conservatives. In Iowa and South Carolina, this group of voters almost wholly voted for Huckabee and Thompson.

Huckabee's campaign, however, doesn't have a lot of cash so they are going to try to skip Florida (more or less) due to its expensive media market and focus on smaller conservative states on February 5. Unfortunately for Huckabee, that doesn't work. It is the Giuliani strategy (skip hard states to focus on easier ones later) and it has proved to be fatal. Giuliani has 1 delegate to 6 for Ron Paul and is running second or third in all "must win" Florida polls.

So, I am revising my prediction to this (still non-final) view of the Florida Republican race:

McCain 36
Romney 26
Giuliani 19
Huckabee 19

As the Demcorats are not campaigning in Florida and no delegates will be awarded, I am not going to bother to guess at that one.


nbt said...

McCain 37
Giuliani 24
Romney 18
Huckabee 12
Paul 9

I think it's good strategy on Huckabee's part (since it is clear he should focus on Southern [rural]states who have a high density of Evangelicals), especially if McCain were to lose to Giuliani in Florida. In other words, his only hope is that this thing goes to the convention still up in the air.

And that scenerio will probably pan out on Tsunami tuesday if McCain is weakened badly in Florida leading up to it. Which probably won't happen btw.

nbpolitico said...

Still think Giuliani will hold second eh? I can't see how he and McCain can have a combined vote of more than 50, you've got the liberal and the moderate taking 61% in a closed Republican primary.

Methinks you is crazy! However, based on my record, going with anything that I haven't is probably a sure bet!

daniel said...

I'd make a prediction, but the polling has been pretty weird coming out of Florida. Generally, these polls have shown two types of results: The first type generally shows McCain leading by 2 or 3 points, with Giuliani and Romney battling for second. The second type tends to show Romney leading by about 5 points, with McCain and Giuliani tied for second place.

The fact that these contradictory sets of results have EACH been corroborated by subsequent polls is baffling, but it suggests to me that Romney is more competitive in Florida than previously thought. I actually wouldn't be shocked if he managed to win there - heck, I think I'd be more shocked by a Giuliani win than a Romney win at this point.

Ah, what the hell, I guess I'll make a prediction after all:

McCain 27
Romney 25
Giuliani 22
Huckabee 17
Paul 9

I think it'll be much closer than everyone expects, and I don't think Rudy's hairbrained Florida gamble will pay off.

nbt said...

Some polls have Romney and Giuliani in a dead heat for second. So you're right, those two could easily trade positions for second.

But as for McCain, though Republicans have had a hard time with his campaign up to this point (only won a majority of them in NH), after the South Carolina victoiry (and Fred Thompson's fallout), they [now] see him as the only longtime establishment candidate that can defeat Hillary or Obama. In other words, many right wing republicans will hold their nose and vote for him instead of Giuliani. Plus, a lot of them don't know where Romney's coming from at this point.

So, if McCain wins in Florida, he will be hard to stop on Feb. 5th. If he loses, let the "cherry picking" (as CNN's John King says) in certain states by certain candidates begin.

As for me, I would like to see the latter (a nail biter), even if it were to mean that an unelectable candidate would come from the back and win at the convention, much like Dion at the convention you attended a year or so ago. That really was oneof the best conventions that I watched in a longtime (and it almost made me change my position on OMOV styles that the tories and block haveengaged in).

nbpolitico said...

Everything nbt said!

As you see I've got Romney up into second now. He might be able to buy first and it would make for a fun night on Feb 5.

daniel said...

Well, things are looking a bit rosier than I had thought for McCain, and far worse than I had imagined for Giuliani.

McCain has received two high-profile endorsements in the past few days - Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez - that should put the wind in his sails going into the final stretch. People from the Romney camp are already downplaying these endorsements (or worse, spinning them as being NEGATIVE for McCain), but it's a well-known fact that Romney was lobbying HARD for these guys' support, which speaks to how important they are politically. Already, murmurs of Crist being an "empty suit" or "Republican-in-name-only" and Martinez being an amnesty supporter are being circulated by the Limbaugh-lovers in the Republican party, when only days ago, these people spoke reverently of both men. Methinks Romney will go into panic mode these next few days, and be his own undoing (a la Clinton in South Carolina).

Giuliani is toast. He's staked everything on Florida, even going so far as to say that whoever wins Florida will win the nomination. Now, he's almost certain to do no better than third place, and as McCain receives endorsements from moderate Florida Republican politicians, Giuliani is likely to to lose even MORE ground - a fourth-place finish is even a possibility. Giuliani had to win here to be viable - if he fails (and he will), it's hard to see him winning a single state on Super Tuesday.

dpub said...

I just look at the editorial page of the Telegraph-Journal for my opinion.

They always seem to know what New Brunswickers and Canadians are saying and thinking. And they don't seem to be shy about talking for all of us.

Now I don't know if they do daily opinion surveys, or if you can stick your finger in the air on Crown Street and become all-knowing; but personally, I don't think the TJ speaks for NB'rs.

I think the Telegraph-Journal speaks for it's ownership and for it's great and good friend, the Liberal Party.

Fot the first time in my life, I have a newspaper where the comment page is a pass by. Boring dreck.

From bigots like Wolfe, to partisan no-minds like Arif, the opinion page of the TJ does a great disservice to New Brunswickers.

The only columnists that don't have a laminated Liberal membership card are Moore( religious- just what the smear Liberals want) and Keenan, who as a columnist is a good lawyer.

The rest are water bearers for the Liberals and the local rich guy. Journalism, a career for the ethics free.

Who speaks for the citizens of New Brunswick? Sadly, no one.

daniel said...

Unless the Telegraph-Journal said something about the Florida primaries, this is not the place to air grievances, dpub.

Well, the final push is on in FL. If McCain wins here, I say he's pretty much sealed the nomination. Giuliani will be finished, and Romney won't have anything else to give him momentum. If Romney wins, I'd give him the advantage going into Super Tuesday, as the Republican party brass has been salivating at the prospect of having a reason to be openly cheering him on. However, McCain would still have a fighting chance.