On Monday, I predicted that Mike Huckabee could win the Florida primary, especially if Fred Thompson were to drop out of the race.
Two days is a long time in politics.
Since then, though Thompson has dropped out, Huckabee has decided to all but take a pass on Florida. I think that that is a fatal mistake. As I mentioned in my post Monday, a whomping 58% of Florida Republican primary voters are conservatives. In Iowa and South Carolina, this group of voters almost wholly voted for Huckabee and Thompson.
Huckabee's campaign, however, doesn't have a lot of cash so they are going to try to skip Florida (more or less) due to its expensive media market and focus on smaller conservative states on February 5. Unfortunately for Huckabee, that doesn't work. It is the Giuliani strategy (skip hard states to focus on easier ones later) and it has proved to be fatal. Giuliani has 1 delegate to 6 for Ron Paul and is running second or third in all "must win" Florida polls.
So, I am revising my prediction to this (still non-final) view of the Florida Republican race:
As the Demcorats are not campaigning in Florida and no delegates will be awarded, I am not going to bother to guess at that one.