Tuesday, December 12, 2006


So, in a one off comment, I mentioned that the Liberals would be sure to improve their standing in the next election. I know Shawn Graham relatively well and know he is a smart and able man with a strong vision. Unfortunately, he doesn't always come off that way. Thus, I figured, if he could just win an election and get a chance to govern, he'd be sure to win the hearts and minds of New Brunswickers and cruise to re-election.

I never expected this, as revealed by a poll today in the Telegraph-Journal:

The latest poll results from Corporate Research Associates show that after an election in which they won the most seats despite losing the popular vote, the Liberals are now the choice of nearly two-thirds of decided voters.

Premier Shawn Graham also saw a major bump in his personal popularity, receiving two times the support of Conservative leader Bernard Lord when people were asked who they prefer as premier of the province.


Among decided voters, 65 per cent said that if an election were held today they would vote Liberal, as opposed to 27 per cent for the Tories. Another 35 per cent said they were undecided.


On the question of which individual they preferred as premier of the province, 48 per cent chose Graham, compared to 23 per cent for Lord.

Wow! I know that this is just a poll and that it is meaningless because it is so far away from an election. But, nonetheless, starting with a 40 point lead is impressive.

This lead is also, obviously, not sustainable. However, I would normally say it would be very fleeting and disappear almost immediately but it could be sustainable in the short term due to some very benefitial factors coming up for the Liberals.

That is to say, the Liberals have a 40 point lead in the polls going into a legislative session where the Tories will be disorganized and have an uncharismatic interim leader (potentially even Jeannot Volpe, who adds 'weak English' and 'massive arrogance' to the credentials).

It is conceivable that the Liberals could lead by comparable margins in the next two CRA polls. Crazy.

UPDATE: Wire services now reporting Lord will resign tomorrow...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I guess we shouldn't knock non-charisma. It worked for Dion and it seems to have worked for Shawn.
The straight goods over the slick brand.