Saturday, December 02, 2006

First Ballot result vs prediction

For those of you who haven't yet seen the results of the first ballot, here they are:

Ignatieff 1412 (29.3%)
Rae 977 (20.3%)
Dion 856 (17.8%)
Kennedy 854 (17.7%)
Dryden 238 (4.9%)
Brison 192 (4.0%)
Volpe 156 (3.2%)
Hall Findlay 130 (2.7%)

A real nail biter, which sees Dion edge out Kennedy by 2 votes. I admit I didn't expect this, but considering that the voting took place largely before Gerard's speech and by delegates given a ballot with only the name of their candidate of choice on it, the fact that Dion has been swamped by positive media attention in recent weeks, the perception that Kennedy had a great speech and Dion had a mediocre one, things are still looking good for my boy Kennedy. After all, Kennedy lost the Ontario leadership in 1996 to a guy who placed fourth, so maybe fourth is better than third?

Prediction check

I predicted all of the ballots number by number a while back, let's take a look:

Ignatieff 1448 (31.2%)
Rae 977 (21.04%)
Kennedy 942 (20.31%)
Dion 843 (18.16%)
Dryden 152 (3.26%)
Volpe 131 (2.81%)
Brison 123 (2.66%)
Hall Findlay 26 (0.55%)

(Disclaimer: I personally think Martha Hall Findlay will do better than this, but couldn't think of a proper way to massage the numbers to make it so.)

Considering my disclaimer, I did pretty good excpet for having Kennedy too high.


harrap said...

Remember as well, Justin Trudeau endorsed Kennedy well after Super-weekend. This I think will give Kennedy the edge with delegates on the second ballot.

harrap said...

It's amazing how much this whole thing rests on circumstances. If Dion and Rae had done better with their speeches truth is it would have been even more of a nailbiter.

As it stands, Kennedy's speech and the Justin Trudeau factor give him the edge.

Harrap said...

Dion was my second choice, GO DION GO!!!

Anonymous said...

Looking like Dion and Ignatieff on the final ballot??

Harrap said...

Dion-Iggy would be dream final ballot as Dion would win handily. Dion-Rae may be tougher but there's enough Anyone-but-Rae sentiment to pull it off for Dion.

Brent said...

Dion's the man!!1