Sunday, November 19, 2006

LibLead II

As promised, here is Part II of my three part series on the Liberal leadership.

For Part I, which covers how each candidate would do in a general election, please click here.

This is: "Part II - How each candidate could win the leadership"

Though it is my belief that Gerard Kennedy will win the leadership, there are a number of scenarios that could play out which would see any of the "big four" winning the race. I will portay the scenarios.

The Hill Times recently reported that both Ignatieff and Rae believe that their best bet to win is an Ignatieff vs. Rae final ballot. I am sorry to let those two gents down, but I do not believe that this ballot is possible. I cannot conceive any situation where they will be the last two standing. For the record, however, I believe Rae would win under such a scenario quite handily.

So, how I will break this down is the possible final ballot match ups and who would win in each.

Ignatieff vs. Kennedy - Kennedy wins

Under this scenario, Ignatieff will not bleed very much support while Kennedy will have placed third in the final four and picked up the lion's share of Dion's support, pulling ahead of Rae and eliminating him on the second to last ballot.

A great deal of Rae's support would go to Kenendy seeing him win by a marin around 55%-45%.

Ignatieff vs. Dion - Too close, slight edge to Dion

Under this scenario, Ignatieff will not bleed very much support while Dion will have placed third in the final four and picked up a substantial amount of Kennedy's support. However, a good number of Kennedy's delegates west of the Ontario/Manitoba border will have been uncomfortable with another Francophone from Quebec as leader and move to Ignatieff and Rae. However, enough will move to Dion to allow him to place second in the final three.

On the final ballot, Kennedy's remaining supporters will spilt around 55-45 to Dion over Ignatieff however a strong number of Rae's supporters going to Dion should push him over the edge possibly winning in a very tight contest over Ignatieff by about 52 to 48, however it could go either way.

Rae vs. Kennedy - Kennedy wins substantially

Under this scenario, Ignatieff will bleed substantially. He will not meet the promised 35% on the first ballot or even come close to it, instead finishing near 30, perhaps in the high 20s. On the second ballot, many of Ignatieff's supporters will bolt causing him to slip to below 25% and either just ahead or just behind Rae.

Situation A

Kennedy pulls well ahead of Dion as many disaffected Ignatieff supporters come to him as they are turned off by Rae and Dion who have been very negative towards their candidate who they would like to support in their hearts. By the time Ignatieff and Dion drop off, Kennedy is well over 40% while Rae is around 30%. Ignatieff's remaining supporters swing quite hard to Kennedy giving him over 60% on the final ballot.

Situation B

Kennedy does not manage to pull to far ahead but in a dramatic shock, Ignatieff slips to fourth of four just behind Kennedy. A great deal of his supporters go to Kennedy, as they are turned off by Rae and Dion who have been very negative towards their candidate, causing Kennedy to surge from third to first on the ballot of three candidates. From their momentum and the support of most Dion delegates push him to a win of >55%.

Rae vs. Dion - Too close, slight edge to Rae

Under this scenario, Ignatieff will bleed substantially. He will not meet the promised 35% on the first ballot or even come close to it, instead finishing near 30, perhaps in the high 20s. On the second ballot, many of Ignatieff's supporters will bolt causing him to slip to below 25% and either just ahead or just behind Rae.

Notwithstanding gaining ground from Ignatieff supporters, Kennedy will not be able to stay ahead of Dion thanks to the support of many of the supporters of the "lower tier" four candidates going to the lone Quebecker.

The ballot with four candidates will see Rae and Dion duking it our for first at around 30%, while Ignatieff and Kenendy will be fighting for third at around 20% each. Ignatieff holds third causing Kennedy to drop with his supporters splitting between Rae and Dion with a slight edge to Dion, causing Dion to pull into first place.

On the final ballot, Ignatieff supporters, many shocked, will not vote, while the remainder will split slightly in Rae's favour. Rae would beat Dion by no more than 52% to 48% under this scenario but it could go either way.

Stay tuned for Part III where I will do a ballot-by-ballot prediction. Sneak peak: It will go 5 ballots.

4 comments:

nbpolitico said...

No comments? I take it that everyone agrees with my analysis then?

Anonymous said...

OK, I'll comment then. You have obviously spent a lot of time rationalizing all this. I just go by my gut feeling--and that is still for Dion.

Sheldon said...

In my view Dion has that little ingredient, a niggling sense that maybe there's something here that's
different, an integrity, a toughness, that's very
much needed in the country today. This goes way past the usual attributes we look for in our punditry;
charisma, celebrity, glib comment. I think Dion has
a confidence about him that is transmittable to the
population, a feeling that he can lead, and do it
with integrity and fairness. We can describe what our leaders should be. But they will describe what we will accept with their actions and integrity.

nbpolitico said...

I certainly do think that Dion has a very strong quality, but I am not sure he is the right leader for right now. We need to grow in Rural Ontario and the West and he is not the candidate for that.

I would not vote for a guy simply on electability, and I think both Dion and Kennedy would make great leaders but Kennedy has the combination of being a good fit for the party and being electable and that is why I support him.

However, this is not what this post is about! This is a question of scenarios under which certain candidates will win the leadership, not of their individual qualities.

This shows that under certain scenarios Kennedy would win, Dion would win, Rae would win and Ignatieff could win. I was hoping to have some commentary as to whether or not I was making erroneous assumptions or if my analysis was sound.

Anyone?