Monday, November 27, 2006

An exciting night in politics

Watching the by-election returns now. Very interesting to see Elizabeth May (Green) and Glen Pearson (Liberal) duking it out for first in the early returns. Conservative "star" is training in fourth behind the NDP!

UPDATE 1: Liberal pulls a bit further ahead, Tory breaks into third.

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 30.5%
May (G) - 27.8%
Haskett (C) - 21.6%
Walker (N) - 19.2%


UPDATE 2: Liberal narrows again, could be a long night.

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 31.2% (+0.7)
May (G) - 29.1% (+1.3)
Haskett (C) - 21.2% (-0.4)
Walker (N) - 17.7% (-1.5)


UPDATE 3: I think we can call Repentigny a Bloc hold, lead consistently at 35 to 40 points ahead of a distant Tory.

UPDATE 4: Liberal lead seems to be stabalizing but still only 75/253 polls reporting. Acutal numerical lead is ~350 votes.

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 32.3% (+0.9)
May (G) - 28.1% (-1.0)
Haskett (C) - 21.4% (+0.2)
Walker (N) - 17.4% (-0.3)


UPDATE 5: Liberal lead seems to be growing very slowly, the trend is positive for the Grit.

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 33.0% (+0.7)
May (G) - 27.8% (-0.3)
Haskett (C) - 21.6% (+0.2)
Walker (N) - 16.7% (-0.7)


UPDATE 6: Upward Liberal trend continues...

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 33.5% (+0.5)
May (G) - 27.8% (± 0)
Haskett (C) - 22.4% (+0.8)
Walker (N) - 15.4% (-1.3)


UPDATE 7: I am almost ready to call this for the Liberals. Actual lead now over 1500 votes, 170/253 polls in.

Results so far
Pearson (L) - 34.1% (+0.6)
May (G) - 27.4% (-0.4)
Haskett (C) - 23.1% (+0.7)
Walker (N) - 14.7% (-0.7)


UPDATE 8: 250/253 polls in. Pearson at 9999 votes, more than 2000 ahead of May. I declare this a Liberal hold and a Pearson victory.

Results so far (not margin over last update but from last election)
Pearson (L) - 34.4% (-5.7)
May (G) - 27.0% (+22.5)
Haskett (C) - 23.6% (-6.3)
Walker (N) - 14.3% (-9.5)

This is a huge set back for the Tories in my view. Despite having the power of government and a well known former mayor candidate who is running against a newcomer (who parachuted in from the next riding) instead of a 6 term incumbent and cabinet minister, they have lost 6.3% of the vote and the Liberal vs Tory margin has actually grown by 0.6%.

This is my last post unless May shocks me and somehow surges ahead.

1 comment:

Daniel said...

The Liberal victory isn't at all surprising. The only thing noteworthy about it(as I've stated in other places) is that the Liberal candidate only got 34% of the vote in a riding that has ALWAYS voted Liberal.

I wouldn't read too much into the increased gap between Liberal and Tory; you forget about a certain Elizabeth May who siphoned votes from all parties ;)

The results don't paint any sort of rosy picture at all, other than the Greens might be more viable in the next election. Really, the fact that no party got more than 34% shows that there is discontent with all major parties; if there was solely discontent with the Tories, we would see the traditional Liberal landslide one would expect in this riding.