Monday, November 06, 2006

Final thoughts on US midterms

The Republicans will retain control of the Senate.

The Democrats will gain control of the House.

These are not bold predictions, they are relatively widely held though some believe that the Senate will go Democratic as well and a small minority (I know of one) think the House will stay Republican.

Recent polls have shown that the race is tightening and that the Republicans have far greater hope than they did a week or two ago, however it is my view that the large general malaise towards Congress and the President remains and that this will not be good. Couple this with the Mark Foley and Ted Haggard scandals, which will likely supress conservative turnout, and it looks very good for the Democrats.

BOLD PREDICTIONS

The Senate: Republican control may hinge on a victory in Rhode Island. I am convinced that Senator Lincoln Chafee will be re-elected here, despite the fact that I cannot find anyone of the prognasticators agreeing with me. Chafee and his father before him have been on the ballot and successful in 1976, 1982, 1988, 1994, 2000. Rhode Island is used to electing liberal Republicans named Chafee. Chafee openly admitted he did not vote for George W. Bush in 2004. He has kept it close in the polls and the fact that most have ceded the race to the Democratic challenger will likely stay home now. No one in Rhode Island (except conservatives) want Chafee to lose, the momentum for his opponent is a desire to defeat any Republican to give the Democrats control of the Senate. If they think that this will happen without having to vote against Chafee, they will gladly avoid the vote.

UPDATE: Chafee has been declared defeated and I predict the Democrats will now win the Senate with victories in Pennsylvania and Ohio (already called), Virginia, Missouri, Montana

The House: The Democrats will win at least 35 seats, perhaps as many as 40-50+. Republican record turnouts in the past few election cycles will not hold in 2006. This will cause the Democrats to carry a lot of seats that would otherwise be marginally Republican.

5 comments:

JL said...

If the Democrats had a comprehensive plan, or any sort of plan, to lead the US out of its current predicament, I'd be surprised if they didn't take both houses. But they don't have a plan, they only have complaints.

People get out and vote for a plan, they don't get off the couch and vote for complaints.

On Wednesday there will be a Republican Senate, Republican House. And I'm willing to wager a small sum on it.

Spinks said...

I'm of a slightly different thought than jl. I think a high voter turnout would bode well for the Republicans. If the masses get out and vote, the Republicans are in. If they don't, the Dems are in.

scott said...

You may be onto something Spinks as higher voter turnout almost always signals a victory for conservatives in Canadian general elections. If you're not convinced, take a look at the voter turnout in the three tory majority victories of 1958, 1984 and 1988.

scott said...

Hey nbpolitico,

They added 15 new house races to the card and the deadline is 11:59 tonight [pacific time] to make final predictions and any changes.

Thought I would let you know via comments in case you didn't check email today.

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