A "new" poll

Eric at 308dotcom has managed to get CRA to release to him the combined results of their last 3 days in the field (from their surveys for both the TJ and AN/RC/CBC). This includes a regional breakdown.

Here are the numbers as they compare to 2006 and the past two polls with regional breakdowns.

North

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	44	44	41	40
Lib	50	44	41	44
NDP	5	10	10	11

South

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	47	43	49	49
Lib	47	39	31	30
NDP	6	11	10	10

Moncton

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	53	43	35	34
Lib	44	44	42	44
NDP	3	8	16	15

This seems to show the Liberals taking the lead in the north and solidifying their lead in Moncton, with them losing a marginal amount of ground in a stabilizing race in south and central New Brunswick. If you were to assume a uniform swing in the Moncton region, the only PC seats would be Petitcodiac, Riverview and Albert.

In fact, just for fun, here is the result of a uniform swing in each region based on this poll and what the final results would be:



The uniform swing gives us PC 28, Lib 25, NDP 2. Of these, the swing suggests that 17 PC seats (shown in dark blue) are very safe (would be won by more than 1000 votes), 10 Liberal seats (shown in dark red) are very safe and 1 NDP seat is very safe (Miramichi Bay-Neguac). Now the uniform swing has a lot of drawbacks, most notably it is completely blind to local factors. It predicts, for instance, the NDP will get 0 votes in Tracadie-Sheila because they didn't run a candidate there last time. However, it is an interesting experiment nonetheless.

Please note that this is not my prediction, that will follow. However, looking at data in ways like this contributes to my prediction making process.

Even more new data

We have the final two CRA/TJ riding polls in the Liberal-held ridings of Miramichi Centre and Fundy-River Valley. At present, both of these ridings are down in the leans PC column, let's see if the data suggests they should be elsewhere.

Miramichi Centre: PC 46, Lib 43, NDP 6, PANB 3, Green 2 (Sept. 17-18)

Reader feedback I had been receiving suggested that this riding was going to be a Tory blow out. This new data shows that the race is well within the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. I am moving it to toss up (from leans PC).

Fundy-River Valley: PC 53, Lib 36, NDP 5, Green 3, PANB 3 (Sept. 17-18)

With a Tory lead of more than three times the margin of error, this riding belongs in the safe PC column (moving from leans PC).

We also have had a new provincial-wide poll by Abacus Data released yesterday. It shows the race as PC 35, Lib 32, NDP 9, Green 5, PANB 2 with undecided sitting at 17% and a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Among just decided voters, it is PC 42, Lib 38, NDP 11, Green 6, PANB 2 with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Unfortunately, this poll does not have regional data so it is impossible to tell whether the Tory lead in Fredericton/Saint John and surrounding areas is falling, the Liberal lead in Greater Moncton is widening or if the Liberals are pulling ahead in the north. I will have to rely on your feedback from the ground to help gauge that.

There are a few other changes that I will make, however:

Moncton East: from toss up to leans Liberal

Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should have been moved to leans Liberal some time ago.

Moncton West: from leans PC to toss up

Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should move.

Nepisiguit: from leans NDP to toss up

Based on overwhelming consensus from reader feedback, I am moving this from to the toss up column.

Please keep your comments coming. A final projection on Saturday or Sunday will take the same format as in 2006, I'll eliminate toss ups and hold myself to 10 "leaning" seats which will be the ridings to watch.

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Current projection: the Tories have the edge in a tight race, but the Tories have a base nearly twice as solid as the Liberals

Conservatives: 26 (17 safe + 9 lean)
Liberals: 21 (9 safe + 12 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)
Toss up: 7

A wealth of new data

There is a whole lot of new data to chew on today. The latest CRA/TJ daily tracking poll, a new CRA poll from Acadie-Nouvelle/Radio-Canada/CBC, two new ridng polls by CRA/TJ, and several other CRA/TJ riding polls since our last update.

We've now seen 8 of the promised 10 riding polls, with Miramichi Centre to come tomorrow and another mystery riding some time after that.

Before I get into the polling results, I will briefly explain why I prefer to use "decided+leaning" voters whenever possible, as opposed to just decided voters. Most pollsters ask two vote intentions questions when they are polling elections. First, they ask who people intend to support. Then they ask those who claim to be undecided if they are leaning toward a particular party. This is done because for a variety of reasons, people may have their mind made up but they don't want to say so. The result is a clearer picture of the true results, and a truer picture of the number of undecideds. For some reason, CRA has always ignored this practice and instead asks only the first question resulting in undecided numbers always in the the 35+ range. This election season they have often relesed the answers to the first question, and the answers to the combined first and second question. When available, I will always use the latter.

An article that explains this phenomenon in detail (as it relates to polling party identification in the United States) can be found in here. Other benefits of asking the second (leaners) question include eliminating phenomena like the UK's "Shy Tory Factor" (when voters have decided to vote for a party that is not fashionable but don't want to admit it) and "Flora Syndrome" (when voters aren't going to vote for a party/candidate that is fashionable but want to say they are anyway).

With that behind us, let's recap the riding polls and see what impact they have on our projections.

Grand Lake-Gagetown: Lib 34, PC 34, PANB 23, Green 2*, NDP 1* (Sept. 8-9)

Current projection: Leans PC. No need to revise this one. While the poll shows a tie, it also showed that when asked for their second choice, the Liberals placed third. Another gut analysis to this one is that it will be hard for PANB to get out their vote, so their number will likely slip on election day (a common phenomenon for minor parties) and my expectation is their vote would split in the PCs' favour.

Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak: PC 41, Lib 37, Green 11, NDP 10 (Sept. 9-10)

Current projection: Toss up. No need to revise this one. While the polls shows a PC edge, with the Green and NDP vote high, there is room for it to collapse likely in the Liberals' favour. That would likely even the race up making it too close to call.

Caraquet: Lib 57, PC 31, NDP 8, Green 3 (Sept. 10-11)

Current projection: Safe Liberal. No need to revise this one (for obvious reasons).

Restigouche-la-Vallée: PC 53, Lib 40, NDP 5, Green 2 (Sept. 11-13)

Current projection: Toss up. While the Restigouche West portion of this riding has a history of strongly favouring incumbents (this was the Tories' best seat in the Liberal sweep of 1987, and one of the Liberals' best in the PC landslide of 1999), this is a significant lead for the PCs and it seems quite obvious that this one should go into at least the leans PC column.

Quispamsis: Lib 47, PC 38, NDP 5*, Green 3* (Sept. 13-14)

Current projection: Toss up. This is a fairly signifcant lead for the Liberals, but it is in single digits with a poll with a relatively large margin of error. It moves to leans Liberal but could easily slip back to toss up in the future.

Saint John Harbour: Lib 39, PC 24, NDP 24, Green 5*, Ind 2* (Sept. 12-14)

Current projection: Safe Liberal. While a result of 39% should be very disappointing for the Liberals, on a three-way split it isn't bad. And with them 15 points ahead of both of their competitors this remains in the safe column.

Moncton North: Lib 45, PC 34, NDP 12, Green 8, PANB 2 (Sept. 15-16)

Current projection: Leans PC. This poll result a surprise to me, having just moved Moncton North into the leans PC column. I will move it to leans Liberal though it is on the cusp of safe Liberal.

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville: Lib 45, PC 36, NDP 11, Green 8 (Sept. 15-16)

Current projection: Safe Liberal. As this is in the single digits of a poll with a relatively large margin of error, I will shift it to leans Liberal.

* results with an asterisk are for minor parties which include only decided voters as the decided+leaning numbers for smaller parties those ridings was not included in the Telegraph-Journal's reporting.

With respect to the provice-wide polls at our disposal, I have chosen to ignore the CRA/TJ tracking poll. It has a sample of 700 people from Sept. 12-18. The CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll is by the sample pollster (therefore using the same or similar methodology), has a larger sample of 1055, was done over a shorter period and was just as recent. This poll also (unlike the tracker) has regional breakdowns. It breaks into the same three regions (North, South and Moncton and area), as the first day of the CRA/TJ tracking poll when they had a bigger sample and provided regional breakdowns.

The result of today's poll is PC 34%, Lib 29%, NDP 9%, Green 5%, PANB 0% with 17% truly undecided and 6% refusing to say or not intending to vote. With the latter categories factored out the result is PC 44%, Lib 38%, NDP 12%, Green 6%, PANB 0%.

For analysis let's first take a look, by region, at that the 2006 results, the results of the CRA/TJ poll and the results of the CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll. To compare apples to apples, I will be using the decided and leaning voters (per above) with the undecideds and non-voters factored out. To your right is the table from today's Acadie-Nouvelle showing regional results with the undecideds and non-voters included.

North

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)
PC	44	44	41
Lib	50	44	41
NDP	5	10	10

South

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)
PC	47	43	49
Lib	47	39	31
NDP	6	11	10

Moncton

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)
PC	53	43	35
Lib	44	44	42
NDP	3	8	16

The most interesting result of these numbers is in the Greater Moncton region where the Liberal support has held since the last poll, while the PC support has dropped significantly in favour of the NDP. My instincts suggest that this means that among francophones in this region, the anti-Liberal vote is shifting to the NDP from the PCs. However, as the NDP is not focussing on the region and has little political infrastucture here they won't be able to turn out that vote so some of it will shift back to the PCs and some of those voters will just not go to the polls. In this region, the PCs are down 8 points from their standing just a few weeks ago and 18 points from the last election.

A more significant development (though it is more to be expected so not quite as interesting) is the Liberal collapse in "southern New Brunswick". We have polls from three urban/suburban ridings and one rural riding near Fredericton suggesting that the Liberals are holding their own, so this may be more symptomatic of Liberal support collapsing in ridings that the PCs already hold, but it is impossible for the Liberals to gain seats on a 49-31 spread, and very unlikely that they won't lose some seats as well. In this region, the Liberals are down 8 points from their standing just a few weeks ago and 16 points from the last election.

One might assume that these two regions would largely cancel each other out with gains and losses in each being offset by opposite shifts in the other region. To some extent that is true, but the bad news for the Liberals is that that south region is much larger than the Greater Moncton region.

That brings us to northern New Brunswick. Here, the Liberals are down 9 points from 2006, while the PCs are down 3 from 2006. Both are down 3 from the last poll in late August. This continues to bode relatively well for the NDP who need to be taking votes from both parties in order to win seats up there. However, the NDP may now regret not putting a greater focus on the Moncton region where the francophone vote held by the Conservatives under Lord seems to have shifted to the NDP even without their working that demographic.

I would therefore make the following adjustments.

The North (Victoria, Madawaska, Restigouche, Gloucester and Northumberland counties)

Victoria-Tobique - leans Liberal to toss up
At this stage in the game, with a PC lead of 49-31 in our closest proxy for anglophone New Brunswick, it is hard to put a rural anglophone seat in the Liberal column. If this were any other riding it would be down as leans (or even safe) PC, but because it survived the 1999 PC landslide, I think it should remain a toss up for now.

Restigouche-la-Vallée - toss up to leans PC
The reader feedback was pushing me in this direction anyway but, per the poll above, this obviously belongs on the PC side of the ledger.

Dalhousie-Restigouche East - leans Liberal to toss up
I'm receiving persistent reader feedback that this is more of a race than I suspect in my gut. I will tentatively move it into the "toss up" category until I can learn more.

Bathurst - toss up to leans PC
With the Liberal vote well down from the 2006 election, it is likely that this seat witnessing the third battle in a row between Liberal Brian Kenny and PC Nancy McKay is in play. The last two elections in this traditional Liberal stronghold were nail-biters, we should expect this election to be no different.

(This brings the standings in the "north" - as seemingly defined by CRA - to PC 7, Lib 7, NDP 2, toss up 2.)

The South (Kings, Queens, Saint John, Charlotte, York, Sunbury and Carleton counties)

Quispamsis - toss up to leans Liberal
The poll done by CRA for the TJ in this riding shows Mary Schryer with a relatively comfortable lead of 9 points.

Rothesay - leans PC to safe PC
With an 18 point led in the south, it is impossible to imagine this seat falling out of Tory hands in this election cycle.

Saint John Portland - leans PC to safe PC
With an 18 point led in the south, it is impossible to imagine this seat falling out of Tory hands in this election cycle.

Charlotte-the-Isles - safe Liberal to leans Liberal
The promise by the Conservatives to eliminate tolls on the Grand Manan ferry would seem to suggest that they believe they have a chance in this riding, even though for the most part it has been held for the Liberals since 1978. However, with an 18 point lead for the PCs in the south, it is hard to imagine that there are any truly "safe" Liberal seats here.

York - leans PC to safe PC
With an 18 point led in the south, it is impossible to imagine this seat falling out of Tory hands in this election cycle.

York North - leans PC to safe PC
With an 18 point led in the south, it is impossible to imagine this seat falling out of Tory hands in this election cycle.

(This brings the standings in the "south" - as seemingly defined by CRA - to PC 15, Lib 7, toss up 1.)

Greater Moncton (Kent, Westmorland and Albert counties)

Kent South - safe PC to leans PC
While this is traditionally a relatively reliable seat for the Conservatives and Claude Williams has proved his mettle, unless the Liberals are making major inroads into ridings like Riverview, Albert, Petitcodiac and Moncton Crescent this seat needs to be downgraded to explain the 18 point drop for the Tories versus their 2006 result.

Tantramar - leans PC to toss up
While this is has been a reliable seat for the Conservatives since 1999, unless the Liberals are making major inroads into ridings like Riverview, Albert, Petitcodiac and Moncton Crescent this seat needs to be downgraded to explain the 18 point drop for the Tories versus their 2006 result. It has traditionally (1978-1987 and in the 1998 by-election) been a bit of swing district with with all three parties being in contention.

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville safe Liberal to leans Liberal
The CRA/TJ poll in this riding showed the Liberals leading by 9 points. That keeps it in their column, but a single digit lead in a poll with a relatively high margin of error is not "safe."

Moncton North - leans PC to leans Liberal
The CRA/TJ poll in this riding shows the Liberals ahead by double digits. It belongs in the Liberal column.

(This brings the standings in the "Moncton area" - as seemingly defined by CRA - to PC 6, Lib 6, toss up 2.)

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Projection summary - with lots of changes below the surface, our top level numbers are unchanged - PC 28 to Lib 20. However, 3 more seats are in the PCs' safe column and 1 less are in the Liberals'.:

Conservatives: 28 (16 safe + 12 lean)
Liberals: 20 (9 safe + 11 lean)
NDP: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

Two new polls at a critical juncture

Two very interesting polls out today on a very critical day. I have been frustrated that the Telegraph-Journal hasn't yet put out any more regional data since they began their tracking poll, as regional data is much more helpful to me than province-wide data. However, with their poll today showing an 11-point (49-38) PC lead, it is time for an update. That number is eerily close to the 1999 result (51-37) which led to Bernard Lord sweeping 44 seats. This sets the stage as the leaders head into two days with four critical debates.

At the same time, Acadie-Nouvelle has released a poll from an Ottawa pollster called Abacus Data. It shows a nail-biter of a race with the PC's holding a lead of 34-33. The poll is just of "Francophone New Brunswick," though it excludes Dieppe and includes Miramichi. They used the boundaries of four federal ridings (Madawaska-Restigouche, Acadie-Bathurst, Miramichi and Beauséjour) as a proxy for that subset of the province. That gives us about half of the provincial ridings, with the following 22 ridings being entirely (or almost entirely) within those boundaries:

Madawaska-les-Lacs, Edmundston-St. Basile, Restigouche-la-Vallée, Campbellton-Restigouche Centre, Dalhousie-Restigouche East, Nigadoo-Chaleur, Bathurst, Nepisiguit, Caraquet, Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, Centre-Peninsule-St-Saveur, Tracadie-Sheila, Miramichi Bay-Neguac, Miramichi Centre, Southwest Miramici, Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Rogersville-Kouchibouguac, Kent, Kent South, Shediac-Cap-Pelé, Tantramar, Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe.

What this tells as is that the Conservatives must have a massive lead in the rest of the province if they led by only one point in this portion of New Brunswick.

First, let's compare the 2006 vote in "Francophone New Brunswick" (as defined by the poll) to the poll result. The poll reads as PC 43, Lib 41, NDP 13, Other 4 with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 when the undecideds are removed.

	2006	AN poll
PC	46	43
Lib	49	41
NDP	5	13

That suggests that similar to the CRA/TJ poll, the Liberals are suffering to the NDP's benefit. However, unlike the CRA/TJ poll, this poll suggests that the NDP are riding a bit higher and while taking most of their support from the Liberals, they are also taking votes from the PCs.

At a micro level, the TJ has also polled the ridings of Grand Lake-Gagetown, Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak and 8 other "battlegrounds." The first of those polls is out today, with the second to come tomorrow. Today's poll shows the race in Grand Lake-Gagetown as a tie of 34% each for the Liberal and the Conservative, with People's Alliance leader Kris Austin coming in relatively close at 23%. It also shows the Liberals coming in third among people's second choice consideration. In my view, this supports the current projection of "leans PC" for the riding, as Austin will have the weaker organization of the three and will likely underperform his polling position on election day, with his voters not making it to the polls and breaking off in higher numbers to the Conservative candidate.

Now to dig into the CRA/TJ poll. First, to help me do that, I will add another layer to the Abacus/AN poll. That is, how did the vote turn out in that same region in 1999?

	2006	AN poll	1999
PC	46	43	50
Lib	49	41	41
NDP	5	13	8

This suggests that the Conservatives are doing even better in "Anglophone New Brunswick" than they did in 1999. They are showing as 7 points off of their showing in the north and eastern part of the province, but overall they are only 2 points off of 1999. Therefore things must be looking very good for them in the rest of the province.

Nepisiguit: from toss up to leans NDP
Because the AN poll, I now expect that the NDP will win at least a seat, if not more than one seat in the north. This is for a number of factors: 1) the poll shows the NDP doing significantly better in the northern and eastern regions of the province than they did in 1999; 2) the NDP nearly won several northern seats in 1999; and 3) the NDP is now taking votes away from both the Tories and the Liberals on a net basis which is critical to their path to victory. This seat was the closest for the NDP in 1999 in these parts, and they are running a strong candidate here to whom they've been giving profile. It was also one of the closest seats in the province in both 1999 and 2006. All of this leads me to believe that this is a prime pick up opportunity for them.

Tracadie-Sheila: from leans PC to leans NDP
Again, if the NDP are able to get 13% of the vote across northern and eastern New Brunswick, they are likely polling in the 30s in the Acadie-Bathrust region. They are now taking support from the Tories who show as 3 points off of their 2006 result and 7 points off of the 1999 result. These are the kind of numbers Duguay needs to win.

Miramichi Southwest: from toss up to leans PC
I've received a lot of reader feedback suggesting that this riding should be in the leans PC column. It is a bit of a historical enigma. On paper, it should be a conservative-leaning seat, but it has been generally safe for the Liberals. But with what appears to be a massive surge of PC support in Anglophone New Brunswick it is difficult to see this seat not being within the PC's grasp.

Moncton East: from leans Liberal to toss up
With the PCs seemingly enjoying a 15 or better point lead in southern and western New Brunswick, urban Moncton seats seem likely to be at least in play, if not leaning Conservative.

Moncton North: from toss up to leans PC
With the PCs seemingly enjoying a 15 or better point lead in southern and western New Brunswick, urban Moncton seats seem likely to be at least in play, if not leaning Conservative.

Moncton West: from toss up to leans PC
With the PCs seemingly enjoying a 15 or better point lead in southern and western New Brunswick, urban Moncton seats seem likely to be at least in play, if not leaning Conservative.

Moncton Crescent: from leans PC to safe PC
If the Liberals were to have picked up 5+ seats, this riding might have been in reach. With the current electoral situation, it is not.

Quispamsis: from leans Liberal to toss up
In the close elections of 2003 and 2006, this seat was a nail-biter with the Liberals barely losing in 2003 and the Liberals barely winning in 2006. It seems to be getting a reputation of something of a bell weather and based on these polls it should probably be in the PC column. Thanks to Mary Schryer's high profile, I'll leave it in the toss up pile for now, but if the current trends continue, it will be the next to go blue.

Saint John East: from safe Liberal to leans Liberal
If there is an 11-point PC win on Sept. 27, there will be very few "safe" Liberal seats in English New Brunswick.

Saint John Lancaster: from safe Liberal to leans Liberal
If there is an 11-point PC win on Sept. 27, there will be very few "safe" Liberal seats in English New Brunswick.

Fundy-River Valley: from toss up to leans PC
This seat is traditionally among the Conservative's safest. It went PC when they won only 6 seats in 1995, and survived the Liberal wave in Saint John in 2003 and almost did again in 2006. If there is a Tory wave, this seat can't stay Liberal.

Charlotte-Campobello: from toss up to leans PC
The Liberals' only hope in this riding is that the strong People's Alliance candidate splits the anti-Liberal vote. But if this poll holds, even on a big split it would be difficult for the Liberals to sneak up the middle.

Fredricton-Fort Nashwaak: from leans Liberal to toss up
If the Telegraph-Journal has identified this as one of its "battlegrounds" (likely based on the cumulative sample of its rolling poll which would be up over 2000 now), it is probably close. This one will be subject to revision based on the poll results released tomorrow.

Fredericton-Silverwood: from safe Liberal to leans Liberal
If there is an 11-point PC win on Sept. 27, there will be very few "safe" Liberal seats in English New Brunswick.

Grand Falls-Drummond-St. Andre: from safe Liberal to leans Liberal
I've heard from some quarters that David Alward has a strong presence here from his time as agriculture minister. This riding went big for the Liberals in 2003, but was closer in 2006. Despite being a majority Francophone riding, it wasn't included in Acadie Nouvelle's poll. I don't have enough evidence to suggest that this riding is in play, but I do have enough to suggest that it is worth at least a closer examination.

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This election is now very clearly David Alward's to lose. The next two days of debates will be critical for the Liberals. If they can't do some damage to Alward while at the same time boosting themselves, it will be very difficult for them to draw a map to victory.

Also, if in the coming days, if the CRA/TJ poll continues to show numbers like these (it was 5 points yesterday by 7 points on Sunday), there will likely be more slippage of Liberal seats in Anglophone New Brunswick and in urban New Brunswick.

Projection summary - PCs are more likely than not to win a majority government:

Conservatives: 28 (13 safe + 15 lean)
Liberals: 20 (11 safe + 9 lean)
NDP: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

New CRA/TJ poll looks good for PCs

A new poll on Friday means some big changes for my predictions. No fewer than 9 seats are affected.

First, the poll analysis...

My biggest pet peeve is when pollsters don't state the margin of error for the sub-samples that they break out.

Here is the meat on the CRA poll, with those margins.

Decided vote (sample of 646)
PC 42%
Lib 41%
NDP 10%
Green 4%
PANB 1%
MOE +/- 3.9%

Decided and leaning vote (sample of 1065)
PC 26%
Lib 25%
NDP 6%
Green 2%
PANB 1%
Won't vote/refused 14%
Undecided 25%
MOE +/- 3.0%

Decided and leaning by region*

"Northern NB" (sample of 367)
PC 26%
Lib 26%
NDP 6%
Green 1%
PANB 0%
Won't vote/refused 13%
Undecided 27%
MOE +/- 5.1%

"Southern NB" (sample of 462)
PC 26%
Lib 24%
NDP 7%
Green 2%
PANB 2%
Won't vote/refused 13%
Undecided 25%
MOE +/- 4.6%

"Moncton and area" (sample of 236)
PC 26%
Lib 25%
NDP 5%
Green 4%
PANB 0%
Won't vote/refused 16%
Undecided 24%
MOE +/- 6.4%

* these regions are not defined by the pollster or the newspaper. For the purposes of this analysis I will assume that the north is approximately Victoria, Madawaska, Restigouche, Gloucester and Northumberland counties, the south is Kings, Queens, Saint John, Charlotte, York, Sunbury and Carleton counties and Greater Moncton is Kent, Westmorland and Albert counties. The number of ridings for each group is equivalent to the relevant proportion of the total sample that CRA has assigned to the regions.

What is probably the most interesting thing about this poll is that the voter preferences are relatively even across the province. I think that many people would have assumed the Liberals and particularly the NDP would be stronger in the north, but that is not the case.

The best way to give these results some context is to compare them by region to the results in 2006, here goes... These tables show the 2006 results and then takes the won't votes and undecideds out of the sample:

North

	2006	CRA/TJ poll
PC	44	44
Lib	50	44
NDP	5	10

South

	2006	CRA/TJ poll
PC	47	43
Lib	47	39
NDP	6	11

Moncton

	2006	CRA/TJ poll
PC	53	43
Lib	44	42
NDP	3	8

Things look very good for the PCs to make gains in the north, with the NDP splitting the vote with the Liberals, and the Tories holding their 2006 vote there. Now, the Liberals won most of their ridings up there by healthy margins, so the split won't allow a big PC wave (unless it worsens), however it should make for an interesting result on the close seats.

In the south (Greater Fredericton and Greater Saint John), the Tories are down from 2006 but within the margin, while the Liberals are down by a statistically significant amount.

In Greater Moncton, the Liberals are holding their 2006 vote, while the Tories are well off of their vote - this was to be expected with Bernard Lord off of the ballot and won't really affect my predictions there.

The result is 9 prediction changes all in the PCs favour.

Madawaska-les-Lacs: from leans PC -> safe PC
This seat would always have been a long shot for the Liberals. Without a huge sweep of the north, this seat is almost certainly out of reach for them so I am moving it to safe PC.

Restigouche-la-Vallée: from leans Liberal -> tossup
The PC candidate is very strong, and is the younger sister of still-popular former MP Bernard Valcourt. All things being equal, I would give Liberal Burt Paulin the slight edge, but with the Liberals down 6 points from their 2006 result, it belongs in the toss up category.

Bathurst: from leans Liberal -> tossup
I have received a lot of emails from readers suggesting that this seat is definitely in play and that Nancy McKay may be able to make the third time the charm. That advice combined with the poll result pushes it into the toss up column.

Tracadie-Sheila: from toss up -> leans PC
Several readers have written to indicate what I also thought to be true - that Roger Duguay has made a big mistake by choosing this riding to run in. If he had run in Miramichi Bay-Neguac and taken votes from the Liberal he would have won. But here even if he takes all of the Liberal votes, he would still be well short of victory. The poll showing that the PC vote is holding to its 2006 levels in the north makes a Duguay victory and a possible Liberal victory (by sneaking up the middle) less and less likely.

Miramichi Centre: from toss up -> leans PC
This was the only seat on the Miramichi to go PC in 1982 (to that time, the best PC result ever). It still remains the most PC-leaning seat in the area.

Saint John-Fundy: from toss up -> leans PC
This should be, on paper, a safe PC seat any time. But the Liberals have won it in 5 of the last 6 elections on vote splits and the strength of Stuart Jamieson's candidacy. Jamieson has retired, but the Liberal to replace was his choice and is a strong candidate. Notwithstanding all of that, if the PCs are to pick up any seats in Greater Saint John, this is almost certainly the first one to fall.

Fredericton-Nashwaaksis: from toss up -> leans PC
In a traditionally Tory city, this is the traditionally strongest seat. Having gone COR in 1991, it clearly is a ("small c") conservative-leaning riding. It was also a bit of a nail biter in 2006 as compared to the other Fredericton-area ridings.

Grand Lake-Gagetown: from toss up -> leans PC
The Liberals barely hung on in this new riding in 2006, after a massive blowout in the old Grand Lake riding in 2003. There best hope here is that PANB leader Kris Austin splits the vote with the Tories, but based on this poll showing the PCs doing relatively better in the south/central regions of the province than last time, ridings like this that lack an incumbent and were close anyway have to be moved to leans PC.

York: from toss up -> leans PC
This is a traditional swing district and it bears watching, but with the Tories up in this region of the province and Urquhart now having the benefit of incumbency, I'll put it in the leans Tory column.

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Projection summary - PCs have a slight edge:

Liberals: 23 (15 safe + 8 lean)
Conservatives: 24 (12 safe + 12 lean)
Toss up: 8

The first poll, the first riding update

Yesterday's CRA poll was good news for the Liberals and no one else. They've recaptured the lead for the first time in a year, and it is outside of the margin of error.

The PCs have slipped. The NDP is flat. And the others aren't even on the radar.

CRA has a nasty habit of showing decided voters alongside an undecided voter number giving you a total of far in excess of 100%. I prefer to see the real numbers so here they are:



I was hoping that this poll might be broken down by region which would be more helpful for me in terms of making a few calls here and there. But based on what there is in this poll, and on your feedback, here are my adjustments.

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
I was tempted to label this safe Liberal before because it is simply a rematch of 2006. A poll showing the Liberals ahead suggested the same.

Rogersville-Kouchibouguac: from toss up -> leans Liberal
Reader feedback all suggests that this traditionally Liberal seat is likely to return to the Liberal fold with Rose-May Poirier out of the picture. That coupled with the poll prompted this call.

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
Melanson has been nominated almost a year and working very hard. The Liberals nearly snagged this in both 2003 and 2006. The Liberal fortunes in Moncton are likely to be improved with Bernard Lord off of the ballot. The poll shows the Liberals ahead.

Fredericton-Lincoln: from toss up -> leans Liberal
I got a lot of feedback suggesting I was crazy to have this in the toss up column.

Fredericton-Silverwood: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
My earlier analysis incorrectly stated that Dominic Cardy was the NDP candidate here. It turns out it is economist Tony Myatt, he of lets eliminate BNB fame. A PC and NDP candidate in the core of the capital city calling for the elimination of civil service jobs? Sounds like Rick Miles doesn't even need to show up.

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Projection summary - Liberals have the edge:

Liberals: 25 (15 safe + 10 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 12

A brief look at the ridings

Back in 2006, I started things out with a "brief" look at the ridings. It seemed like a good way to get started on 2006. So here it goes again for 2010.

The following is my gut reading on each of the 55 ridings. Polls, vibes, and your tips will help me as there are countless adjustments in the weeks ahead.

But, as I've said before, I really think this election will come down to a riding-by-riding, candidate-by-candidate, organization-by-organization, street fight.

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - currently Liberal

This seat leans Liberal. As Speaker for most of the term, Roy Boudreau hasn't had the profile of a minister or even a backbencher. That said, this has been a traditionally Liberal riding (one of the 10 that stayed Liberal in 1999). The PCs have chosen the same candidate as last time 'round, so that bodes well for Boudreau. Still worth monitoring however.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27)

Dalhousie-Restigouche East - currently Liberal

While much has been said about Donald Arseneault's future because of the long series of bad economic news for his riding, I find it hard to imagine he will lose his seat. He got 68% of the vote in 2006 and since then has been a senior cabinet minister, climbing the ladder all of the way to Deputy Premier. That said, the troubles that the riding has seen over the past four years will made it a bit of a rough ride so, for now, it should be kept in the "leans Liberal" column.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Nigadoo-Chaleur - currently Liberal

Roland Hache was the only non-incumbent Liberal to win in 1999. He survived a challenge from star candidate and Lord chief of staff Hermel Vienneau in 2003. Hache is seeking re-election. Nuff said.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Bathurst - currently Liberal

Since the departure of Marcelle Mersereau, this seat has been a nail biter every time. Though Nancy McKay is officially non-partisan at the moment (as she winds up her role as COO of the Moncton World Track & Field championships) she has already launched a Facebook page indicating she'll be taking her third run at Brian Kenny. This will probably be close again, but with Kenny's profile as a rising member of the Graham cabinet, he probably has the edge.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 6, to leans PC on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Nepisiguit - currently Liberal

Cheryl Lavoie won by less than 400 votes in 2006 and this is likely to be one of the NDP's top targets. We'll have to watch things closely in the coming weeks to see which way this goes.

Current projection: Toss up (changed to leans NDP on Sept. 14, back to toss up on Sept. 22 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Caraquet - currently Liberal

The Liberals have (at the last minute) delivered on their commitment to reopen the Caraquet Hospital. That should eliminate any thought that this riding could be in play.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently Progressive Conservative

While one assumes that PC fortunes will be on the decline in Francophone New Brunswick from 2006 when they had a Francophone leader, Paul Robichaud is untouchable.

Current projection: Safe PC

Centre-Peninsule-Saint-Saveur - currently Liberal

Despite a presumed strong challenge by former MLA Louis-Philippe McGraw last time around, Denis Landry won by nearly 1000 votes. Since then he's been minister of transportation. To my knowledge no minister of transportation from a rural riding has ever lost a re-election bid. And I can't imagine one ever will (with the obvious exception of an election where the whole cabinet is swept away).

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila - currently Progressive Conservative

This will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch. The NDP has gone all-in on this riding. The question is will they take left votes from the Liberals or anti-government votes from the Tories. The NDP leader and his party have directed more of their fire at the PCs than the Grits, which leads one to how they must answer the question. This is likely the only three-way race in the province (with the possible exception of Charlotte-Campobello). Will Landry hold enough of his vote to hang on? Will Duguay pull an upset an restore the the NDP to the legislature for the first time since 2005? Or will the Liberals sneak up the middle in an anti-government vote split and take this seat for the first time since 1994?

Current projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6, then to leans NDP on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - currently Liberal

Carmel Robichaud's departure from cabinet may diminish her chances, but a look at the results in this riding suggest it should be hard for a Liberal to lose. In 2006, Roger Duguay's votes came almost entirely at the expense of the Tories. One presumes he'll have a candidate here this time that will do the same thing (though to a lesser extent). I don't have a good read here so I don't want to be too definitive, but for now I think it is safe to say Robichaud will go back to Fredericton.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Miramichi-Bay du Vin - currently Liberal

Bill Fraser won a decisive victory in 2006, beating Tanker Malley by nearly 1500 votes. This time around the PCs are targetting this riding hard, including the promise of a permanent MRI for the Miramichi Hospital. Fraser has been an aggressive constituency MLA however and has a great deal of street cred on the hospital thanks to his past as leader of the 'save our hospital' coalition against the former government.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Miramichi Centre - currently Liberal

Of all of the seats on the Miramichi, this riding has the most Conservative history. It went PC in 1982, and it very nearly did so again in 1991 when CoR leader Arch Pafford split the vote and the race ended in essentially a three-way tie. This time around Newcastle has taken the brunt of the bad news on the Miramichi. And the PC candidate is Robert Trevors, a city councilor and EA to popular MP Tilly Gordon. It is hard to say which way this will go.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6, back to toss up on Sept. 22 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Southwest Miramichi - currently Liberal

This riding is, on paper, a conservative stronghold. That said Rick Brewer has been an excellent constituency MLA and managed to get re-elected against popular former CoR MLA Brent Taylor last time around. But I keep coming to back to how, on paper, this really should be a Tory riding.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Rogersville-Kouchibouguac - currently vacant

This seat is traditionally Liberal but has been a stronghold for popular PC MLA (and now Senator) Rose-May Poirier. With Poirier off of the ballot, one assumes that it could be poised to return to its Liberal roots. Her former EA is the candidate and it will be a question of whether he can capture his old boss' magic.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans Liberal on Aug. 27 and to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Kent - currently Liberal

This is a traditionally Liberal seat occupied by the Liberal leader. While it was a close call thanks to boundary changes in 2006, it seems like it should be safe re-election ride for Shawn Graham this time around.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Kent South - currently Progressive Conservative

Claude Williams has proved his mettle three times. This seat will stay blue until he moves on.

Seat projection: Safe PC (changed to leans PC on Sept. 20 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Shediac-Cap-Pele - currently Liberal

Probably the safest Liberal seat in New Brunswick.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Tantramar - currently Progressive Conservative

This has been a traditional swing riding when incumbents retire, but newcomer Mike Olscamp managed to capture it handily in 2006. It seems likely to stay in the Tory fold but it bears watching.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe - currently Liberal

This new (as of 2006) riding may someday rival Shediac as the best Liberal seat in the province. Bernard LeBlanc will sail back into office.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - currently Progressive Conservative

PC incumbent Cy LeBlanc won by a hair in both 2003 and 2006, and this time around he isn't reoffering. Rumours abound as to why, but regardless a sure Liberal pick up has become an even surer Liberal pick up. It is hard to call an unheld seat so sure this soon so I will leave it in the likely column, but just barely so.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and back again to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton East - currently Liberal

The PCs are mounting a strong enough candidate here to keep this in the lean column, but the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should diminish Tory prospects across Moncton, and especially in this riding which Chris Collins managed to capture by a massive margin in the 2007 by-election.

Seat projection: Lean Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 22 and to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton West - currently Liberal

Tory-turned-Grit Joan MacAlpine-Stiles is not reoffering, but Anne Marie Ford (well known for voicing the radio ads of Ford's Apothecary which she co-owns) is a formidable candidate. The restoration of the Petitcodiac, her name recognition and the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should make this a lock but, again, the PCs have a very strong candidate in Sue Stultz so we'll have to watch it closely.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and back to toss up on Sept. 22 and then to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton North - currently vacant

Marie-Claude Blais gave Mike Murphy a real scare in 2006. Now, he isn't on the ballot and she's been running hard for months (if not years). Can Kevin Robart work his magic? This will be the hottest race in the southeast.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and then to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and then to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton Crescent - currently Progressive Conservative

This should be a safe PC seat with popular incumbent John Betts on the ballot. However, the considerable Liberal investments in ABU could play in their favour. A strong Liberal candidate has been found in the name of Russ Mallard, and he could put this seat in play. Time will tell if the Liberals can deliver, but for now Betts has the edge.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 14 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Petitcodiac - currently Liberal

Cabinet minister Wally Stiles won with one of the largest margins in the province last time around - as a Conservative. Three years after crossing the floor, can Stiles bring enough voters over with him to win a fourth term? Helping him is the fact that the PC candidate is from outside of the riding and won't move in (and give up her seat on Riverview council in so doing) unless she is elected. Will that be enough to overcome the Conservative tendencies of the riding? Hard to say. This will be the second best race to watch in the southeast.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Riverview - currently Progressive Conservative

This is a very safe Conservative seat.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Albert - currently Progressive Conservative

This is a very safe Conservative seat.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Kings East - currently Progressive Conservative

While the Liberals managed to snag this seat in 2003 on the heels of massive anger at the Lord government over cuts to agriculture, in any normal cycle this seat is out of the Liberals possible grasp.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Hampton-Kings - currently Progressive Conservative

While Kit Hickey's background should allow her to unite much of the NDP vote here with the Liberals, even with those forces combined she would finish well behind Tory stalwart Bev Harrison.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Quispamsis - currently Liberal

Health Minister Mary Schryer has been one of the fastest rising stars in the Liberal caucus. Fresh from election, she joined the cabinet as a junior minister, before being promoted to the third largest department in government (Social Development) and then to mega-ministry Health. Her high profile should allow her to be re-elected but with Quispamsis taking a big jump on property taxes and a big Tory push in suburban Saint John she'll need to work hard.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and then to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Saint John-Fundy - currently Liberal

Stuart Jamieson is the only non-Tory to have ever won this riding - and he has done it five times. Gary Keating was hand picked by Jamieson to succeed him and as Liberals go, probably has the next best change to hold the riding for the Grits. Can he do it? This could be a nail-biter.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and then to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Rothesay - currently Progressive Conservative

Margaret-Ann Blaney's margin of victory has slipped every election. From a massive 2853 vote margin in 1999, to 679 in 2003, to a razor-thin 91 votes in 2006. This will definitely be a riding to watch. However, for the moment I believe it belongs in the lean Tory category.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Saint John East - currently Liberal

The only time in recent memory that the Liberals haven't won this seat was in 1999. Then, the Tories had a huge sweep and carried this riding with 36%. How? The NDP had 28%. While the loss of Roly MacIntyre will make this seat a lot harder for the Liberals to win, the NDP will not be able to score anywhere near 28%. And if the Tories can only get 36% here in their best year ever, I would say this would be among the safest Liberal seats in the province.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and back to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Saint John Harbour - currently Liberal

Along with Saint John East, Saint John Harbour is definitely among the two most reliably left of centre seats in the province. Without Elizabeth Weir on the ballot for the NDP, this will be a Liberal stronghold for many years to come.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Saint John Portland - currently Progressive Conservative

Trevor Holder has won nailbiters in both 2003 and 2006. However, without him having to defend the record of a sitting government he should be in better stead this time out. He doesn't have it in the bag by any means however and will have to work hard to hold on for a fourth term.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Saint John Lancaster - currently Liberal

Abel LeBlanc has become an institution in this riding. As long as he is on the ballot, the seat is his for the keeping.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fundy-River Valley - currently Liberal

Jack Keir has proved one of the most able rookie MLAs in legislative history. Last year he was recognized by uber-geeks Jacques Poitras and Dan McHardie in several categories for being a strong asset to the Liberals.

All of that said, this is a traditionally Conservative riding (one of six to vote PC in 1995) which Keir won by a hair in 2006. The PCs are touting Dr. Jim Parrott as a star candidate and cabinet material, while Keir may still be licking the wounds of the NB Power debate in a riding that is dominated by hundreds of workers from the NB Power plants of Coleson Cove and Point Lepreau.

Despite Keir's strength, this will be a tough one for the Liberals.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and to safe PC on Sept. 22)

Charlotte-the-Isles - currently Liberal

This seat has gone Liberal in every election since 1978. 'Nuff said.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Charlotte-Campobello - currently Progressive Conservative

Tony Huntjens is retiring and this seat is setting up to be a lot like 1995, when Huntjens first ran - at that time for COR.

In 1995 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both incumbents whose ridings had merged) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning. In 2010 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both newcomers) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning.

In 1995 - a candidate who, on paper, was arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, ran for COR despite the fact that COR was in decline and only won 7% of the provincial vote and zero seats in that election. In 2010 - a candidate who, on paper, is arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, is running for PANB despite the fact that PANB is unproven and will likely win zero seats in the election.

In 1995 - the Liberal captured only 46% of the vote, but won handily as both the PC candidate and COR candidate finished with about 25% each. In 2006 - the Liberal candidate lost by only 282 votes with no right wing split. In 2010 - ???

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Oromocto - currently Progressive Conservative

Jody Carr's personal fiefdom is not at danger of falling into enemy hands.

Seat projection: Safe Progressive Conservative (actually possibly the safest of all 55)

Grand Lake-Gagetown - currently Liberal

This seat was won by Eugene McGinley by a huge landslide in 2003. In 2006, he barely hung on. Was that due to declining Liberal fortunes in a district with new boundaries, or to the candidacy of Jack Carr riding on the coattails of his popular brother?

Is new Liberal candidate Barry Armstrong, who in the past advocated against the Liberal government's ferry cuts likely to bring in more support for the Liberals or less? Will PANB leader Kris Austin who a few short months ago sought the PC nomination bleed votes away from Tory Ross Wetmore?

This will be a very interesting riding to watch.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Nashwaaksis - currently Liberal

While he won it fairly comfortably in 2003, Liberal T. J. Burke won by a narrow margin in 2006. Meanwhile, Tory candidate Troy Lifford was nominated early and is working hard. This will be a race to watch.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Ft. Nashwaak - currently Liberal

Despite provincial controversies, Kelly Lamrock seems to have built up a very solid relationship with his constituents. While the Tories will clearly be targeting Fredericton as their best chance for picking up urban seats, Lamrock is likely to be able to hang on.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Lincoln - currently Liberal

Finance Minister Greg Byrne won by 1000 votes in his return to provincial politics in 2006. And that with a strong third place finish for then NDP leader Allison Brewer. One presumes that much of that NDP support came from campus, and that much if it will now shift to Byrne. That said, Tory candidate Craig Leonard made a strong name for himself in the area as a vocal opponent of reforms to French immersion. He, like Troy Lifford, was nominated early and has been campaigning hard. This will be a tight race.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans Liberal on Aug. 27 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Silverwood - currently Liberal

Rick Miles has shown himself to be a rising star in Liberal ranks. In his first weeks on the job he was elected caucus chair, and later rose to join the cabinet. He has had the good luck of drawing a weak Conservative opponent in far-right, anti-government, parachute candidate Brian Macdonald. Macdonald's style of politics is not likely to fly in a riding dominated by civil servants. A well run NDP campaign, with provincial campaign chair Dominic Cardy running here, could cause some weird things to happen with vote splits, but it seems likely that Miles will earn a second term.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27 and then back to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

New Maryland-Sunbury West - currently Progressive Conservative

Jack Carr managed to hold this seat in the 2008 by-election despite the Liberals throwing their whole Fredericton organization behind this race. A rural riding held by a guy whose twin is the popular incumbent next door and whose leader is a rural guy from two ridings over should not have a hard time getting re-elected.

Seat projection: Safe PC

York - currently Progressive Conservative

This riding hasn't returned the same party twice in a row since Les Hull was re-elected for the Tories in 1982. Since then it has gone Liberal in 1987, COR in 1991, Liberal in 1995, PC in 1999, Liberal in 2003 and PC in 2006. Based on history alone, one would probably want to hedge on this one. Couple that with the fact that long-time and popular Harvey mayor Winston Gamblin is the Liberal candidate and you've got a race on your hands.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC on Sept. 20)

York North - currently Progressive Conservative

Though Kirk MacDonald won handily in 2006 (thanks to his entry to cabinet and a big split among Liberals), this election is likely to be more like 2003 when MacDonald won by only 101 votes. A Liberal candidate who won by acclamation is not likley to suffer from internal strife. That said, this riding does include David Alward's home town of Nackawic and MacDonald is very active in the constituency. For now, I would say that the PCs have a slight edge but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Woodstock - currently Progressive Conservative

David Alward is in no risk of losing his seat...

Seat projection: Safe PC

Carleton - currently Progressive Conservative

... and neither is Dale Graham.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Victoria-Tobique - currently Liberal

Larry Kennedy, now the dean of the legislature, is seeking a seventh term. Last time around he had the largest margin of any Liberal in the province. I don't think that he will win that handily this time, but the odds should be in his favour.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André - currently Liberal

Ron Ouellette won this riding handily in both 2003 and 2006. 2010 shouldn't be much different.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and back to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Restigouche-la-Vallée - currently Liberal

This new riding saw a battle of two incumbents in 2006. While Burt Paulin lost at that time by about 1000 votes to Percy Mockler, he won the 2009 by-election by about 1000 votes to Mockler's former EA. With Mockler (first elected in 1982) no longer in contention, Paulin is probably pretty safe.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 6 and to leans PC on Sept. 20 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Edmundston-St. Basile - currently Progressive Conservative

Mado Dubé has had no trouble getting re-elected since she first ran in 1999. While some Liberals argue that Alward's relative unpopularity in francophone New Brunswick (as compared to Lord) and the fact that the Liberals have invested obscene amounts of pork here since 2006 should give them a shot, I just don't see it.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Madawaska-les-Lacs - currently Progressive Conservative

Jeannot Volpé's retirement changes everything in this riding which he has held since 1995. The PCs had a star candidate, who lost the nomination to Volpé's former chief of staff who had been unceremoniously dumped by Alward when he took the leadership. That likely means that there is a bit of a PC split here. That probably isn't enough to tilt the riding into Liberal hands, but it is worth watching.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 6)

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Original projection summary - this is anyone's race to win:

Liberals: 23 (12 safe + 11 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 14

Aug. 27 projection:

Liberals: 25 (15 safe + 10 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 12

Sep. 6 projection:

Conservatives: 25 (15 safe + 8 lean)
Liberals: 23 (12 safe + 12 lean)
Toss up: 8

Sep. 14 projection:

Conservatives: 28 (13 safe + 15 lean)
Liberals: 20 (11 safe + 9 lean)
New Democrats: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

Sep. 20 projection:

Conservatives: 28 (16 safe + 12 lean)
Liberals: 20 (9 safe + 11 lean)
New Democrats: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

Sep. 22 projection:

Conservatives: 26 (17 safe + 9 lean)
Liberals: 21 (9 safe + 12 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)
Toss up: 7

Final (Sep. 25) projection:

Conservatives: 28 (18 safe + 10 lean)
Liberals: 26 (12 safe + 14 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)

Wither the People's Alliance?

This is the third post in a three-post series on the prospects for New Brunswick's three registered third parties for this fall's provincial election.

The People's Alliance is running as a radically populist party. They will not whip their elected members in any way to support a central party platform, but they are instead a loose alliance of individuals who want to put their constituents before party.

This sounds like a good idea on paper, but it has not proved to work very well in practice both at the federal level and here in New Brunswick.

The Reform Party of Canada ran on a similar platform but it did not take them long to move to a more traditional approach when in parliament. The same happened to the Confederation of Regions here in New Brunswick. In Reform's case, they managed to adapt and thrive (though their populist views eventually vanished when merging to form today's Conservative Party). On the other hand, COR imploded after one term of having elected members.

While this model does not seem to work very well after elections, it does seem to be a good platform on which to run for election. Dissatisfaction with politics as usual (which we are certainly seeing in New Brunswick today) got Reform over 50 seats in 1993 and COR official opposition status in 1991.

While COR is best remembered for being opposed to official bilingualism, this was just one manifestation of a broader view of libertarian/populism. i.e. keep the state out of the people's business and give the people more power over the state.

One presumes that the People's Alliance will do best in ridings where COR did well.

COR won all of almost all of its seats in Greater Fredericton, with two others in anglophone parts of Greater Moncton. It also did relatively well throughout rural southern New Brunswick.

Riding boundaries have changed quite a bit since 1991 (in 1995 and again in 2006) but the following 11 ridings were all or largely represented by COR in 1991:

Albert Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak Fredericton-Lincoln* Fredericton-Nashwaaksis Grand Lake-Gagetown* Miramichi Southwest New Maryland-Sunbury West Oromocto Riverview York York North

* The old riding of Sunbury makes up significant parts of these two ridings and was represented by COR. The ridings of Queens North (which makes up the rest of Grand Lake-Gagetown) and Frederiton South (which makes up the rest of Fredericton-Lincoln) were won by the Liberals in 1991.

I've colourcoded the ridings based on which party currently represents them. As you can see, both the Liberals and Conservatives are equally at risk.

The highest profile candidates so far are both former Conservative nomination contestants. One is party leader Kris Austin, running in Grand Lake-Gagetown and St. Andrews mayor John Craig in Charlotte-Campobello.

The People's Alliance's hopes rest largely with circumstances outside of their control. Because their ethos is to be against the system, the "system" needs to do something that will spur the disenfranchised to be against the main parties and therefore vote for this party.

Every day that passes since the NB Power debate, the less likely it is for this party to be able to ride the tide of that rage. Moreover, if their voters are most likely to be people that would otherwise vote Conservative, will they actually be able to get votes in an election where the Conservatives have a chance to win? In 1991 the PCs were in shambles and in 1993 they were crushed.

In those elections, voters could choose between a moderate party that was sure to lose and a radical party that was sure to lose. It is very easy to stay pure in those circumstances.

If people who generally prefer less government and small c conservatism have the choice between a more moderate Conservative Party that could win and a populist party that can't, I suspect they are more likely to choose the former.

So barring something dramatic happening between now and September 27, I expect that that People's Alliance will do well enough to scare the mainstream parties in a few ridings, but not likely pick up a seat. I'll set the odds at 20-80.

Wither the Greens?

The Green Party is very new in New Brunswick. They have not contested a provincial election before.

They have some credibility in that their leader is disaffected Liberal Jack MacDougall who is well known in political circles for being an excellent campaign organizer.

MacDougall served as organizer for the federal Greens in the 2008 election which saw their share of the vote in New Brunswick climb from to 6.2% from 2.4% in 2006. How much of this has to do with MacDougall is impossible to tell but that 4.2 point increase compares favourably to the national climb of 2.3.

Opinion polls do not have the Greens coming in that high, instead ranging between 2 and 3% (of all voters) in a poll with a margin of error of +/- 3.4.

However, while third parties traditionally underperform their polling numbers because of weak organization, it could be said that the Greens may overperform their polling numbers because of strong organization. We'll have to see.

If the Greens did manage to replicate that 6.2% of the vote, they would still not be likely to win any seats. In fact, COR got 7.1% of the vote in 1995 and even with concentrated support and 6 incumbent MLAs on the ballot they couldn't get a seat.

When MacDougall sought the leadership of the Liberal Party in 2002, he won only 8% of delegates. However, he ran very strong in Saint John where he was active in business and community causes in the 1980s. He actually won a plurality of delegates in several Saint John ridings.

Had MacDougall run in a Saint John area riding, say Saint John-Fundy where long-time MacDougall ally Stuart Jamieson is stepping down, he may have had a shot. As it stands, I suspect he will place third (at best) in his chosen riding of Fredericton-Nashwaaksis.

The prospects for the Greens winning a seat are grim. However, if MacDougall gets into the leaders' debate... you never know. There a great many undecided voters and a great many disgruntled voters in this very unpredictable cycle. One never knows what might happen if an unknown leader of an unknown party were to catch on in a debate.

That said, I would give the chances of the Greens winning a seat 5-95.

Whither the NDP?

The NDP nearly had a breakthrough in francophone New Brunswick in the 1999 election. The double momentum of Yvon Godin's 1997 federal election victory (and to a lesser extent Angela Vautour's in Beauséjour-Petitcodiac), and the decline of the Liberal Party in that election created a tremendous opportunity for them.

Will that opportunity be replicated in 2010 by the party's first Francophone leader running in a riding on the peninsula combined with a Liberal government that, like in 1999, is facing some serious trouble?

Here are the ridings in which the NDP did well in 1999 that fall in or near the boundaries of those two federal ridings:

Nepisiguit 28%
Tantramar 19%
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac 18%
Nigadoo-Chaleur 16%
Centre-Péninsule 14%
Moncton North 14%
Kent South 12%
Riverview 12%
Miramichi Centre 11%

Add to that list two more ridings: Tracadie-Sheila (where party leader Duguay is running) and Miramichi Bay-Neguac (where Duguay ran and got got 26% in 2006).

These are the ridings that the NDP has its best shot of winning. Particularly the Francophone ridings in the northeast and possibly also Moncton North, a traditionally Liberal riding with a strong PC campaign and no Liberal incumbent.

The NDP seems to be going all in on electing their leader, which is probably a fair strategy. The PCs have made two major announcements in Tracadie-Sheila, leading one to believe they are nervous. Equally good hopes could be Nepisiguit, a heavily unionized riding and home base of Yvon Godin, and Rogersville-Kouchibouguac and Moncton North which are open seats. The NDP would be wise to focus on these four.

A weakened Liberal Party and a PC Party with a leader that lacks appeal in Francophone New Brunswick up against a Francophone NDP leader from the peninsula is an ideal scenario for the NDP.

I would give them 50-50 or slightly better odds at the NDP picking up at least one seat. That said, I gave them a seat in my 2006 prediction so I may want to water my wine a bit on those odds.

Certainly something to watch. I'll follow this post up with a post on the prospects for the Greens and the People's Alliance.

Where we stand

The most recent CRA poll is out and it shows a real horse race.

The way CRA presents its polls is a bit confusing. They give you the margin of error of their whole sample, but then take the undecideds out of the sample when they present their numbers.

Let's break it out in a bit more accurate a way.

Full sample of 807 with a +/- MOE of 3.4 points.

Undecided 36
PC 27
Lib 24
NDP 10
Green 3
Other 1

Or we can look at the numbers as they presented them with a more accureate margin of error.

A partial sample of 64% of 807 (516) yields a MOE of +/- 4.3 points

PC 42
Lib 37
NDP 16
Green 5
Other 1

Looking at it either way, the PCs are just inside or outside of the margin of error (the difference likely due to a combination of rounding error and available number of significant digits).

Therefore it is fair to say with some confidence that the PCs appear to be in the lead. But whether you say that are not, it can be said with all confidence that it is pretty close at the moment.

And in any event, the undecideds are a third larger than the largest party!

CRA is the only outfit that regularly polls New Brunswick politics. We can therefore look at trends over a long period of time. A friend was kind enough to send me a chart of all CRA quarterly polls going back 10 years.



As you can see, the honeymoon enjoyed by the Graham Liberals after the 2006 election was particularly sweet. Though we do not see back as far as Lord's first year in office, his second year compares unfavourably to Graham's. In order for the situation to normalize, the Liberals had to take a deep dive. However, they have likely dove too far for their liking.

Normally in a situation like this you might be able to make a guess on where things were going based on momentum. But for three polls in a row now, both parties are essentially stalled (Libs up 1, PCs down 4 with no movement in last poll). Both have reason to be optimistic. After jumping 11, then falling 4, the Tories have held their ground. The Libs after falling 5 have levelled out and started to tick back up.

But what we do see is that the polls are basically where they were on the eve of the last election (PC 45 - Lib 39).

So one of three things is going to happen. 1) Something dramatic and positive will happen in the short-term to change these numbers in someone's favour; 2) something dramatic and negative will happen during the writ to change the numbers against one's favour; 3) we'll see the same thing as in 2003 and 2006 where local campaigns and local candidates will be the deciding factors.

At this point, I lean towards #3 in my expectations.

Let the trench warfare begin.

He's back...

I bowed out of this a while ago, but with an election in the offing I won't be able to resist. Stay tuned for my commentary and predictions for New Brunswick's 2010 election.

New Democrats to cruise to victory

If polls are to believed the NDP will have a convincing win on Tuesday night in Nova Scotia.

My previous post predicted the NDP would be on the cusp of a majority (winning 26 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly gives you a majority if there is an opposition speaker and a minority with a government one) when the votes are counted.

Since there have been two new polls.

A CRA poll showed that in the last two weeks of May, the NDP surged substantially. Numbers from their early May poll and degree of change are in brackets:

NDP 44 (+7 from 37)
Lib 28 (-3 from 31)
PC 26 (-2 from 28)

An Angus Reid poll issued a few days later shows the NDP at an incredible 47, the Liberals at 26 and the PCs at 23.

If the NDP really are at 47%, things would be huge. If we were to assume the NDP was at 70% in the HRM, they would still be running at 35% everywhere else (higher than they ever have before). A more realistic number for the NDP would be 55% in the HRM (compared to 46.5% last time), which would give them nearly 43% in the rest of Nova Scotia.

Therefore, my revised prediction would be as follows:

NDP 36
Lib 10
PC 6

UPDATE:
So the final results were NDP 31, Lib 11, PC 10. Things actually turned out pretty well as I expected, except the Liberals did better in the HRM than I thought at the expense of the NDP and the PCs did better in Cape Breton than I thought at the expense of the Liberals.