Miramichi Centre: PC 46, Lib 43, NDP 6, PANB 3, Green 2 (Sept. 17-18)
Reader feedback I had been receiving suggested that this riding was going to be a Tory blow out. This new data shows that the race is well within the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. I am moving it to toss up (from leans PC).Fundy-River Valley: PC 53, Lib 36, NDP 5, Green 3, PANB 3 (Sept. 17-18)
With a Tory lead of more than three times the margin of error, this riding belongs in the safe PC column (moving from leans PC).We also have had a new provincial-wide poll by Abacus Data released yesterday. It shows the race as PC 35, Lib 32, NDP 9, Green 5, PANB 2 with undecided sitting at 17% and a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Among just decided voters, it is PC 42, Lib 38, NDP 11, Green 6, PANB 2 with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Unfortunately, this poll does not have regional data so it is impossible to tell whether the Tory lead in Fredericton/Saint John and surrounding areas is falling, the Liberal lead in Greater Moncton is widening or if the Liberals are pulling ahead in the north. I will have to rely on your feedback from the ground to help gauge that.
There are a few other changes that I will make, however:
Moncton East: from toss up to leans Liberal
Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should have been moved to leans Liberal some time ago.Moncton West: from leans PC to toss up
Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should move.Nepisiguit: from leans NDP to toss up
Based on overwhelming consensus from reader feedback, I am moving this from to the toss up column.Please keep your comments coming. A final projection on Saturday or Sunday will take the same format as in 2006, I'll eliminate toss ups and hold myself to 10 "leaning" seats which will be the ridings to watch.
Current projection: the Tories have the edge in a tight race, but the Tories have a base nearly twice as solid as the Liberals
Conservatives: 26 (17 safe + 9 lean)
Liberals: 21 (9 safe + 12 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)
Toss up: 7