Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Even more new data

We have the final two CRA/TJ riding polls in the Liberal-held ridings of Miramichi Centre and Fundy-River Valley. At present, both of these ridings are down in the leans PC column, let's see if the data suggests they should be elsewhere.

Miramichi Centre: PC 46, Lib 43, NDP 6, PANB 3, Green 2 (Sept. 17-18)
Reader feedback I had been receiving suggested that this riding was going to be a Tory blow out. This new data shows that the race is well within the margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. I am moving it to toss up (from leans PC).
Fundy-River Valley: PC 53, Lib 36, NDP 5, Green 3, PANB 3 (Sept. 17-18)
With a Tory lead of more than three times the margin of error, this riding belongs in the safe PC column (moving from leans PC).
We also have had a new provincial-wide poll by Abacus Data released yesterday. It shows the race as PC 35, Lib 32, NDP 9, Green 5, PANB 2 with undecided sitting at 17% and a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Among just decided voters, it is PC 42, Lib 38, NDP 11, Green 6, PANB 2 with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. Unfortunately, this poll does not have regional data so it is impossible to tell whether the Tory lead in Fredericton/Saint John and surrounding areas is falling, the Liberal lead in Greater Moncton is widening or if the Liberals are pulling ahead in the north. I will have to rely on your feedback from the ground to help gauge that.

There are a few other changes that I will make, however:

Moncton East: from toss up to leans Liberal
Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should have been moved to leans Liberal some time ago.
Moncton West: from leans PC to toss up
Based on the consistent wide margin for the Liberals in Greater Moncton, this seat should move.
Nepisiguit: from leans NDP to toss up
Based on overwhelming consensus from reader feedback, I am moving this from to the toss up column.
Please keep your comments coming. A final projection on Saturday or Sunday will take the same format as in 2006, I'll eliminate toss ups and hold myself to 10 "leaning" seats which will be the ridings to watch.

Current projection: the Tories have the edge in a tight race, but the Tories have a base nearly twice as solid as the Liberals

Conservatives: 26 (17 safe + 9 lean)
Liberals: 21 (9 safe + 12 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)
Toss up: 7


DL said...

I'm surprised that out of 10 ridings that CRA polled - they did not include Tracadie-Sheila. By any objective standard - its one of the more interesting ridings what with Duguay trying to get elected and they did poll in the ridings where the Green and PANB leaders are running.

Anonymous said...

I only have 6 riding differences with you now! However: Tracadie-Sheila is still Leans PC, Dalhousie-Restigouche east is still Leans Lib, Tantramar is Leans PC, Miramichi-Centre is still Leans PC(but borders on Toss-Up), Miramichi Bay-Neguac is Leans PC(almost safe PC now, I called this one early) & Miramichi-Bay du Vin is now Leans PC(my excellent sources are recently indicating an upset here). However, I now concede that Rogersville-Kouch. is Leans Lib, that Fredericton-Ft. Nashwaak is Toss-Up, and that Moncton-West is Toss-Up. So now I'm at PC=30, Liberals=21 & Toss-Up=4. Clearly things are shaping up more clearly. The NDP cannot win a seat because at 9-11% it is almost impossible to win a seat without concentrating in one or 2 seats, their support is in 6-7 ridings where none are reaching the 30% threshold! The Liberals will only lose 1 seat in the North of Miramichi and they will not be wiped out in Moncton(and they will keep respectability here). It is in Miramichi where the PC's will pick up 4 out of 5 seats and in the South where they will pick up the remaining seats(actually gain is 3 seats considering Rogs.-Kouch. factor). Much of the PC vote gain here is in already in strong Tory ridings. There are only a few days left for Leaders/Parties to make mistakes! They can no longer make popular impressive statements to woo a great majority of the undecided. By Saturday, less than 10 % will be undecided. it is still too close to call a PC victory but if they play things right they will form the next government.

rivermiramichi said...

Beausolei1 I couldn't disagree more with you on your comments about the PC's taking 4 out of five seats in the Miramichi, John Foran has tremendous support and it shows driving through the riding and the talk at tim hortons and hes getting stronger by the day. Def a Safe Liberal seat as well as Bill Fraser Joan cripps doesnt stand a chance. The only shot the PC's have getting a seat is in Carmel Robichauds riding and thats a maybe too.........But I woudld bet my Last dollar John Foran wins strong in Miramichi center, Robert Trevors was the counciller that lobbied for the fire hall in nelson to be torn down and nobody forgot that and John Foran won a pole last election in EEl ground first nation 176-3 drove through there today virtually every house has a Foran sign..........Make for great debate though I respect your views

DL said...

"The NDP cannot win a seat because at 9-11% it is almost impossible to win a seat without concentrating in one or 2 seats, their support is in 6-7 ridings where none are reaching the 30% threshold!"

There has been no polling in Tracadie-Sheila or Nepisiguit so how do we know that there isn't an NDP concentration of support in one or both of those seats. The NDP took 1 seat in four straight elections in NB while having a province-wide popular vote of less than 10% under Weir.

Anonymous said...

Understood Rivermiramichi! I respect also your views! We will all know by Monday night! I'm basing my opinions on observations made by friends in Miramichi and on the polls so far mentioned. I should say that the Miramichi is a great area and I am not implying that John Foran, Bill Fraser, Rick Brewer or Carmel Robichaud are not good hard working representatives but clearly the present Government did not re-start the local economy. Many of their initiatives fell through(Umo, Tag-Weyerhauser, Pilot Training School etc..). They even had trouble getting a full time MRI!. With over 3500 jobs lost in the region in the last 5 years, I can't see how any government could continue receiving a majority popular support in this area. And, if the Liberals are still in the lead(although slight) in the North, that means the PC support has to be somewhere outside Shippagan, Tracadie-Sheila & Bathurst(even the last two PC support isn't that great as the polls are showing). And if Rogersville is returning to the Liberal fold this means that the PC support is strongest in Miramichi. It doesn't mean that John Foran(or Bill, Rick or Carmel) can't win this! it is based on polling and observations! I said from the very beginning that this would be candidate's battle. It will be up to those individuals to prove that they deserve to be elected.

Anonymous said...

DL you are right about the lack of poll information about Tracadie-Sheila & Nepisiguit. But, it is my impression that it is these two ridings along with Saint John Harbour in which they have a perceived chance to be over 25% support. But, to win a an election you need to be in the mid30% area in a 3 way race. All three ridings have strong Liberal and PC bases. Which means it is highly doubtfull that the NDP will muster a seat even though I say that it is still touch and go in all three of these ridings. It is so far the best NDP performance in a long time.