Monday, May 25, 2009

The problem with wide appeal

I was in Nova Scotia last week and was starkly reminded that the only party with support all across the province is the Progressive Conservative Party.

In Cumberland County, you'd have to search a long time to find a Liberal sign. While in the western most parts of the Annapolis Valley, NDP signs were nowhere to be found.

The most recent poll showed the NDP at 37%, the Liberals at 31% and the PCs at 28%. If that PC support is spread relatively evenly across the province (the poll suggests it gets up to 35% in rural, mainland Nova Scotia) they could risk running second in virtually every riding in the province and get a share of seats that is far less than their numbers suggest. With Liberal support concentrated in the Valley/French Shore and Cape Breton, they're likely looking at a near sweep of those regions with 31%.

I am going to make the following seat prediction one weektwo weeks out:

NDP 26
Lib 17
PC 9

Whoops, I was originally thinking voting day was June 2, but it is actually June 9.

1 comment:

Independent said...

The riding to watch is Truro-Bible Hill. Is the Hub of Nova Scotia ready for Lenore Zann?

On another note, Mr Lahey gave a keynote address at the release of the Green Party's platform.