Yesterday's CRA poll was good news for the Liberals and no one else. They've recaptured the lead for the first time in a year, and it is outside of the margin of error.
The PCs have slipped. The NDP is flat. And the others aren't even on the radar.
CRA has a nasty habit of showing decided voters alongside an undecided voter number giving you a total of far in excess of 100%. I prefer to see the real numbers so here they are:
I was hoping that this poll might be broken down by region which would be more helpful for me in terms of making a few calls here and there. But based on what there is in this poll, and on your feedback, here are my adjustments.
Campbellton-Restigouche Centre: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
I was tempted to label this safe Liberal before because it is simply a rematch of 2006. A poll showing the Liberals ahead suggested the same.
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac: from toss up -> leans Liberal
Reader feedback all suggests that this traditionally Liberal seat is likely to return to the Liberal fold with Rose-May Poirier out of the picture. That coupled with the poll prompted this call.
Dieppe Centre-Lewisville: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
Melanson has been nominated almost a year and working very hard. The Liberals nearly snagged this in both 2003 and 2006. The Liberal fortunes in Moncton are likely to be improved with Bernard Lord off of the ballot. The poll shows the Liberals ahead.
Fredericton-Lincoln: from toss up -> leans Liberal
I got a lot of feedback suggesting I was crazy to have this in the toss up column.
Fredericton-Silverwood: from leans Liberal -> safe Liberal
My earlier analysis incorrectly stated that Dominic Cardy was the NDP candidate here. It turns out it is economist Tony Myatt, he of lets eliminate BNB fame. A PC and NDP candidate in the core of the capital city calling for the elimination of civil service jobs? Sounds like Rick Miles doesn't even need to show up.
Projection summary - Liberals have the edge:
Liberals: 25 (15 safe + 10 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 12