A "new" poll

Eric at 308dotcom has managed to get CRA to release to him the combined results of their last 3 days in the field (from their surveys for both the TJ and AN/RC/CBC). This includes a regional breakdown.

Here are the numbers as they compare to 2006 and the past two polls with regional breakdowns.

North

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	44	44	41	40
Lib	50	44	41	44
NDP	5	10	10	11

South

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	47	43	49	49
Lib	47	39	31	30
NDP	6	11	10	10

Moncton

	2006	CRA/TJ poll (Aug. 26 - Sep. 1)	CRA/AN/RC/CBC poll (Sep. 15-18)	CRA combined sample (Sep. 16-19)
PC	53	43	35	34
Lib	44	44	42	44
NDP	3	8	16	15

This seems to show the Liberals taking the lead in the north and solidifying their lead in Moncton, with them losing a marginal amount of ground in a stabilizing race in south and central New Brunswick. If you were to assume a uniform swing in the Moncton region, the only PC seats would be Petitcodiac, Riverview and Albert.

In fact, just for fun, here is the result of a uniform swing in each region based on this poll and what the final results would be:



The uniform swing gives us PC 28, Lib 25, NDP 2. Of these, the swing suggests that 17 PC seats (shown in dark blue) are very safe (would be won by more than 1000 votes), 10 Liberal seats (shown in dark red) are very safe and 1 NDP seat is very safe (Miramichi Bay-Neguac). Now the uniform swing has a lot of drawbacks, most notably it is completely blind to local factors. It predicts, for instance, the NDP will get 0 votes in Tracadie-Sheila because they didn't run a candidate there last time. However, it is an interesting experiment nonetheless.

Please note that this is not my prediction, that will follow. However, looking at data in ways like this contributes to my prediction making process.