A brief look at the ridings

Back in 2006, I started things out with a "brief" look at the ridings. It seemed like a good way to get started on 2006. So here it goes again for 2010.

The following is my gut reading on each of the 55 ridings. Polls, vibes, and your tips will help me as there are countless adjustments in the weeks ahead.

But, as I've said before, I really think this election will come down to a riding-by-riding, candidate-by-candidate, organization-by-organization, street fight.

Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - currently Liberal

This seat leans Liberal. As Speaker for most of the term, Roy Boudreau hasn't had the profile of a minister or even a backbencher. That said, this has been a traditionally Liberal riding (one of the 10 that stayed Liberal in 1999). The PCs have chosen the same candidate as last time 'round, so that bodes well for Boudreau. Still worth monitoring however.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27)

Dalhousie-Restigouche East - currently Liberal

While much has been said about Donald Arseneault's future because of the long series of bad economic news for his riding, I find it hard to imagine he will lose his seat. He got 68% of the vote in 2006 and since then has been a senior cabinet minister, climbing the ladder all of the way to Deputy Premier. That said, the troubles that the riding has seen over the past four years will made it a bit of a rough ride so, for now, it should be kept in the "leans Liberal" column.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Nigadoo-Chaleur - currently Liberal

Roland Hache was the only non-incumbent Liberal to win in 1999. He survived a challenge from star candidate and Lord chief of staff Hermel Vienneau in 2003. Hache is seeking re-election. Nuff said.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Bathurst - currently Liberal

Since the departure of Marcelle Mersereau, this seat has been a nail biter every time. Though Nancy McKay is officially non-partisan at the moment (as she winds up her role as COO of the Moncton World Track & Field championships) she has already launched a Facebook page indicating she'll be taking her third run at Brian Kenny. This will probably be close again, but with Kenny's profile as a rising member of the Graham cabinet, he probably has the edge.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 6, to leans PC on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Nepisiguit - currently Liberal

Cheryl Lavoie won by less than 400 votes in 2006 and this is likely to be one of the NDP's top targets. We'll have to watch things closely in the coming weeks to see which way this goes.

Current projection: Toss up (changed to leans NDP on Sept. 14, back to toss up on Sept. 22 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Caraquet - currently Liberal

The Liberals have (at the last minute) delivered on their commitment to reopen the Caraquet Hospital. That should eliminate any thought that this riding could be in play.

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently Progressive Conservative

While one assumes that PC fortunes will be on the decline in Francophone New Brunswick from 2006 when they had a Francophone leader, Paul Robichaud is untouchable.

Current projection: Safe PC

Centre-Peninsule-Saint-Saveur - currently Liberal

Despite a presumed strong challenge by former MLA Louis-Philippe McGraw last time around, Denis Landry won by nearly 1000 votes. Since then he's been minister of transportation. To my knowledge no minister of transportation from a rural riding has ever lost a re-election bid. And I can't imagine one ever will (with the obvious exception of an election where the whole cabinet is swept away).

Current projection: Safe Liberal

Tracadie-Sheila - currently Progressive Conservative

This will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch. The NDP has gone all-in on this riding. The question is will they take left votes from the Liberals or anti-government votes from the Tories. The NDP leader and his party have directed more of their fire at the PCs than the Grits, which leads one to how they must answer the question. This is likely the only three-way race in the province (with the possible exception of Charlotte-Campobello). Will Landry hold enough of his vote to hang on? Will Duguay pull an upset an restore the the NDP to the legislature for the first time since 2005? Or will the Liberals sneak up the middle in an anti-government vote split and take this seat for the first time since 1994?

Current projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6, then to leans NDP on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Miramichi Bay-Neguac - currently Liberal

Carmel Robichaud's departure from cabinet may diminish her chances, but a look at the results in this riding suggest it should be hard for a Liberal to lose. In 2006, Roger Duguay's votes came almost entirely at the expense of the Tories. One presumes he'll have a candidate here this time that will do the same thing (though to a lesser extent). I don't have a good read here so I don't want to be too definitive, but for now I think it is safe to say Robichaud will go back to Fredericton.

Current projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Miramichi-Bay du Vin - currently Liberal

Bill Fraser won a decisive victory in 2006, beating Tanker Malley by nearly 1500 votes. This time around the PCs are targetting this riding hard, including the promise of a permanent MRI for the Miramichi Hospital. Fraser has been an aggressive constituency MLA however and has a great deal of street cred on the hospital thanks to his past as leader of the 'save our hospital' coalition against the former government.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Miramichi Centre - currently Liberal

Of all of the seats on the Miramichi, this riding has the most Conservative history. It went PC in 1982, and it very nearly did so again in 1991 when CoR leader Arch Pafford split the vote and the race ended in essentially a three-way tie. This time around Newcastle has taken the brunt of the bad news on the Miramichi. And the PC candidate is Robert Trevors, a city councilor and EA to popular MP Tilly Gordon. It is hard to say which way this will go.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6, back to toss up on Sept. 22 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Southwest Miramichi - currently Liberal

This riding is, on paper, a conservative stronghold. That said Rick Brewer has been an excellent constituency MLA and managed to get re-elected against popular former CoR MLA Brent Taylor last time around. But I keep coming to back to how, on paper, this really should be a Tory riding.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Rogersville-Kouchibouguac - currently vacant

This seat is traditionally Liberal but has been a stronghold for popular PC MLA (and now Senator) Rose-May Poirier. With Poirier off of the ballot, one assumes that it could be poised to return to its Liberal roots. Her former EA is the candidate and it will be a question of whether he can capture his old boss' magic.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans Liberal on Aug. 27 and to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Kent - currently Liberal

This is a traditionally Liberal seat occupied by the Liberal leader. While it was a close call thanks to boundary changes in 2006, it seems like it should be safe re-election ride for Shawn Graham this time around.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Kent South - currently Progressive Conservative

Claude Williams has proved his mettle three times. This seat will stay blue until he moves on.

Seat projection: Safe PC (changed to leans PC on Sept. 20 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Shediac-Cap-Pele - currently Liberal

Probably the safest Liberal seat in New Brunswick.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Tantramar - currently Progressive Conservative

This has been a traditional swing riding when incumbents retire, but newcomer Mike Olscamp managed to capture it handily in 2006. It seems likely to stay in the Tory fold but it bears watching.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe - currently Liberal

This new (as of 2006) riding may someday rival Shediac as the best Liberal seat in the province. Bernard LeBlanc will sail back into office.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - currently Progressive Conservative

PC incumbent Cy LeBlanc won by a hair in both 2003 and 2006, and this time around he isn't reoffering. Rumours abound as to why, but regardless a sure Liberal pick up has become an even surer Liberal pick up. It is hard to call an unheld seat so sure this soon so I will leave it in the likely column, but just barely so.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and back again to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton East - currently Liberal

The PCs are mounting a strong enough candidate here to keep this in the lean column, but the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should diminish Tory prospects across Moncton, and especially in this riding which Chris Collins managed to capture by a massive margin in the 2007 by-election.

Seat projection: Lean Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 22 and to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton West - currently Liberal

Tory-turned-Grit Joan MacAlpine-Stiles is not reoffering, but Anne Marie Ford (well known for voicing the radio ads of Ford's Apothecary which she co-owns) is a formidable candidate. The restoration of the Petitcodiac, her name recognition and the lack of the Bernard Lord factor should make this a lock but, again, the PCs have a very strong candidate in Sue Stultz so we'll have to watch it closely.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and back to toss up on Sept. 22 and then to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton North - currently vacant

Marie-Claude Blais gave Mike Murphy a real scare in 2006. Now, he isn't on the ballot and she's been running hard for months (if not years). Can Kevin Robart work his magic? This will be the hottest race in the southeast.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and then to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and then to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Moncton Crescent - currently Progressive Conservative

This should be a safe PC seat with popular incumbent John Betts on the ballot. However, the considerable Liberal investments in ABU could play in their favour. A strong Liberal candidate has been found in the name of Russ Mallard, and he could put this seat in play. Time will tell if the Liberals can deliver, but for now Betts has the edge.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 14 and back to leans PC and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Petitcodiac - currently Liberal

Cabinet minister Wally Stiles won with one of the largest margins in the province last time around - as a Conservative. Three years after crossing the floor, can Stiles bring enough voters over with him to win a fourth term? Helping him is the fact that the PC candidate is from outside of the riding and won't move in (and give up her seat on Riverview council in so doing) unless she is elected. Will that be enough to overcome the Conservative tendencies of the riding? Hard to say. This will be the second best race to watch in the southeast.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Riverview - currently Progressive Conservative

This is a very safe Conservative seat.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Albert - currently Progressive Conservative

This is a very safe Conservative seat.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Kings East - currently Progressive Conservative

While the Liberals managed to snag this seat in 2003 on the heels of massive anger at the Lord government over cuts to agriculture, in any normal cycle this seat is out of the Liberals possible grasp.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Hampton-Kings - currently Progressive Conservative

While Kit Hickey's background should allow her to unite much of the NDP vote here with the Liberals, even with those forces combined she would finish well behind Tory stalwart Bev Harrison.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Quispamsis - currently Liberal

Health Minister Mary Schryer has been one of the fastest rising stars in the Liberal caucus. Fresh from election, she joined the cabinet as a junior minister, before being promoted to the third largest department in government (Social Development) and then to mega-ministry Health. Her high profile should allow her to be re-elected but with Quispamsis taking a big jump on property taxes and a big Tory push in suburban Saint John she'll need to work hard.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and back to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and then to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Saint John-Fundy - currently Liberal

Stuart Jamieson is the only non-Tory to have ever won this riding - and he has done it five times. Gary Keating was hand picked by Jamieson to succeed him and as Liberals go, probably has the next best change to hold the riding for the Grits. Can he do it? This could be a nail-biter.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and then to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Rothesay - currently Progressive Conservative

Margaret-Ann Blaney's margin of victory has slipped every election. From a massive 2853 vote margin in 1999, to 679 in 2003, to a razor-thin 91 votes in 2006. This will definitely be a riding to watch. However, for the moment I believe it belongs in the lean Tory category.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Saint John East - currently Liberal

The only time in recent memory that the Liberals haven't won this seat was in 1999. Then, the Tories had a huge sweep and carried this riding with 36%. How? The NDP had 28%. While the loss of Roly MacIntyre will make this seat a lot harder for the Liberals to win, the NDP will not be able to score anywhere near 28%. And if the Tories can only get 36% here in their best year ever, I would say this would be among the safest Liberal seats in the province.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and back to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Saint John Harbour - currently Liberal

Along with Saint John East, Saint John Harbour is definitely among the two most reliably left of centre seats in the province. Without Elizabeth Weir on the ballot for the NDP, this will be a Liberal stronghold for many years to come.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal

Saint John Portland - currently Progressive Conservative

Trevor Holder has won nailbiters in both 2003 and 2006. However, without him having to defend the record of a sitting government he should be in better stead this time out. He doesn't have it in the bag by any means however and will have to work hard to hold on for a fourth term.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Saint John Lancaster - currently Liberal

Abel LeBlanc has become an institution in this riding. As long as he is on the ballot, the seat is his for the keeping.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fundy-River Valley - currently Liberal

Jack Keir has proved one of the most able rookie MLAs in legislative history. Last year he was recognized by uber-geeks Jacques Poitras and Dan McHardie in several categories for being a strong asset to the Liberals.

All of that said, this is a traditionally Conservative riding (one of six to vote PC in 1995) which Keir won by a hair in 2006. The PCs are touting Dr. Jim Parrott as a star candidate and cabinet material, while Keir may still be licking the wounds of the NB Power debate in a riding that is dominated by hundreds of workers from the NB Power plants of Coleson Cove and Point Lepreau.

Despite Keir's strength, this will be a tough one for the Liberals.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and to safe PC on Sept. 22)

Charlotte-the-Isles - currently Liberal

This seat has gone Liberal in every election since 1978. 'Nuff said.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 20 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Charlotte-Campobello - currently Progressive Conservative

Tony Huntjens is retiring and this seat is setting up to be a lot like 1995, when Huntjens first ran - at that time for COR.

In 1995 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both incumbents whose ridings had merged) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning. In 2010 - the Liberals had two strong candidates (both newcomers) who fought a divisive battle for the nomination, with the female Liberal winning.

In 1995 - a candidate who, on paper, was arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, ran for COR despite the fact that COR was in decline and only won 7% of the provincial vote and zero seats in that election. In 2010 - a candidate who, on paper, is arguably stronger than the official PC candidate, is running for PANB despite the fact that PANB is unproven and will likely win zero seats in the election.

In 1995 - the Liberal captured only 46% of the vote, but won handily as both the PC candidate and COR candidate finished with about 25% each. In 2006 - the Liberal candidate lost by only 282 votes with no right wing split. In 2010 - ???

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Oromocto - currently Progressive Conservative

Jody Carr's personal fiefdom is not at danger of falling into enemy hands.

Seat projection: Safe Progressive Conservative (actually possibly the safest of all 55)

Grand Lake-Gagetown - currently Liberal

This seat was won by Eugene McGinley by a huge landslide in 2003. In 2006, he barely hung on. Was that due to declining Liberal fortunes in a district with new boundaries, or to the candidacy of Jack Carr riding on the coattails of his popular brother?

Is new Liberal candidate Barry Armstrong, who in the past advocated against the Liberal government's ferry cuts likely to bring in more support for the Liberals or less? Will PANB leader Kris Austin who a few short months ago sought the PC nomination bleed votes away from Tory Ross Wetmore?

This will be a very interesting riding to watch.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Nashwaaksis - currently Liberal

While he won it fairly comfortably in 2003, Liberal T. J. Burke won by a narrow margin in 2006. Meanwhile, Tory candidate Troy Lifford was nominated early and is working hard. This will be a race to watch.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Ft. Nashwaak - currently Liberal

Despite provincial controversies, Kelly Lamrock seems to have built up a very solid relationship with his constituents. While the Tories will clearly be targeting Fredericton as their best chance for picking up urban seats, Lamrock is likely to be able to hang on.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 14 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Lincoln - currently Liberal

Finance Minister Greg Byrne won by 1000 votes in his return to provincial politics in 2006. And that with a strong third place finish for then NDP leader Allison Brewer. One presumes that much of that NDP support came from campus, and that much if it will now shift to Byrne. That said, Tory candidate Craig Leonard made a strong name for himself in the area as a vocal opponent of reforms to French immersion. He, like Troy Lifford, was nominated early and has been campaigning hard. This will be a tight race.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans Liberal on Aug. 27 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Fredericton-Silverwood - currently Liberal

Rick Miles has shown himself to be a rising star in Liberal ranks. In his first weeks on the job he was elected caucus chair, and later rose to join the cabinet. He has had the good luck of drawing a weak Conservative opponent in far-right, anti-government, parachute candidate Brian Macdonald. Macdonald's style of politics is not likely to fly in a riding dominated by civil servants. A well run NDP campaign, with provincial campaign chair Dominic Cardy running here, could cause some weird things to happen with vote splits, but it seems likely that Miles will earn a second term.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to safe Liberal on Aug. 27 and then back to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and made one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

New Maryland-Sunbury West - currently Progressive Conservative

Jack Carr managed to hold this seat in the 2008 by-election despite the Liberals throwing their whole Fredericton organization behind this race. A rural riding held by a guy whose twin is the popular incumbent next door and whose leader is a rural guy from two ridings over should not have a hard time getting re-elected.

Seat projection: Safe PC

York - currently Progressive Conservative

This riding hasn't returned the same party twice in a row since Les Hull was re-elected for the Tories in 1982. Since then it has gone Liberal in 1987, COR in 1991, Liberal in 1995, PC in 1999, Liberal in 2003 and PC in 2006. Based on history alone, one would probably want to hedge on this one. Couple that with the fact that long-time and popular Harvey mayor Winston Gamblin is the Liberal candidate and you've got a race on your hands.

Seat projection: Toss up (changed to leans PC on Sept. 6 and to safe PC on Sept. 20)

York North - currently Progressive Conservative

Though Kirk MacDonald won handily in 2006 (thanks to his entry to cabinet and a big split among Liberals), this election is likely to be more like 2003 when MacDonald won by only 101 votes. A Liberal candidate who won by acclamation is not likley to suffer from internal strife. That said, this riding does include David Alward's home town of Nackawic and MacDonald is very active in the constituency. For now, I would say that the PCs have a slight edge but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 20)

Woodstock - currently Progressive Conservative

David Alward is in no risk of losing his seat...

Seat projection: Safe PC

Carleton - currently Progressive Conservative

... and neither is Dale Graham.

Seat proejction: Safe PC

Victoria-Tobique - currently Liberal

Larry Kennedy, now the dean of the legislature, is seeking a seventh term. Last time around he had the largest margin of any Liberal in the province. I don't think that he will win that handily this time, but the odds should be in his favour.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 20 and back to leans Liberal and one of 15 ridings to watch in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André - currently Liberal

Ron Ouellette won this riding handily in both 2003 and 2006. 2010 shouldn't be much different.

Seat projection: Safe Liberal (changed to leans Liberal on Sept. 14 and back to safe Liberal in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Restigouche-la-Vallée - currently Liberal

This new riding saw a battle of two incumbents in 2006. While Burt Paulin lost at that time by about 1000 votes to Percy Mockler, he won the 2009 by-election by about 1000 votes to Mockler's former EA. With Mockler (first elected in 1982) no longer in contention, Paulin is probably pretty safe.

Seat projection: Leans Liberal (changed to toss up on Sept. 6 and to leans PC on Sept. 20 and to safe PC in the final prediction of Sept. 25)

Edmundston-St. Basile - currently Progressive Conservative

Mado Dubé has had no trouble getting re-elected since she first ran in 1999. While some Liberals argue that Alward's relative unpopularity in francophone New Brunswick (as compared to Lord) and the fact that the Liberals have invested obscene amounts of pork here since 2006 should give them a shot, I just don't see it.

Seat projection: Safe PC

Madawaska-les-Lacs - currently Progressive Conservative

Jeannot Volpé's retirement changes everything in this riding which he has held since 1995. The PCs had a star candidate, who lost the nomination to Volpé's former chief of staff who had been unceremoniously dumped by Alward when he took the leadership. That likely means that there is a bit of a PC split here. That probably isn't enough to tilt the riding into Liberal hands, but it is worth watching.

Seat projection: Leans PC (changed to safe PC on Sept. 6)

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Original projection summary - this is anyone's race to win:

Liberals: 23 (12 safe + 11 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 14

Aug. 27 projection:

Liberals: 25 (15 safe + 10 lean)
Conservatives: 18 (11 safe + 7 lean)
Toss up: 12

Sep. 6 projection:

Conservatives: 25 (15 safe + 8 lean)
Liberals: 23 (12 safe + 12 lean)
Toss up: 8

Sep. 14 projection:

Conservatives: 28 (13 safe + 15 lean)
Liberals: 20 (11 safe + 9 lean)
New Democrats: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

Sep. 20 projection:

Conservatives: 28 (16 safe + 12 lean)
Liberals: 20 (9 safe + 11 lean)
New Democrats: 2 (0 safe + 2 lean)
Toss up: 5

Sep. 22 projection:

Conservatives: 26 (17 safe + 9 lean)
Liberals: 21 (9 safe + 12 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)
Toss up: 7

Final (Sep. 25) projection:

Conservatives: 28 (18 safe + 10 lean)
Liberals: 26 (12 safe + 14 lean)
NDP: 1 (0 safe + 1 lean)