I think most are in agreement that this will be an easy pick up for the Liberals. The factors in the Liberals favour:
- The seat was Liberal from 1974-1998 and only went to Lord by relatively narrow margins in all but the 1999 sweep
- The Liberals are in power and will be for probably 3.5 to 4 years and a Liberal MLA from Moncton East would almost certainly soon join the cabinet
- Lord was elected on the "leader factor" which is gone in this case
- The Tories did well in Moncton because of Lord's own popularity there, he has said that after a short time he will be in a job that will not permit him to campaign here
- The Tories did well in Moncton because of the pro-Tory spin of the Times & Transcript which has become notably fairer to the Liberals in recent weeks
- The Liberals have a very strong candidate
The Progressive Conservatives have not nominated a candidate, but so far, the only declared candidate is Opposition staffer Chad Peters.
I've heard nothing about who the NDP may run. In 2003, a senior member of the NDP Jean-Marie Nadeau ran here, will he run again?
It will also be interesting to see if the Green Party, which has yet to officially form, will run someone as an independent.