This race has been very tightly contested with various candidates leading in the polls over the past year. The excitement and confusion has not yielded in the days leading into the vote.
Ann Selzer, who has run the definitive poll in Iowa for decades, abruptly cancelled the release of her completed poll due to irregularities in data collection. The absence of this gold standard makes predicting the winner of tonight's caucus all the more difficult.
Also, the processes used in the Iowa Democratic caucus are unique, and some new features are being used for the first time ever today. The caucus model, which is used by a minority of states, is comparable to the process used in Canada to select candidates and previously to select leaders. A primary is a state-run process, where civil servants conduct the election in a non-partisan fashion to select party nominees; that is completely foreign to Canada. A caucus is a party-run process, where party members must sign up in advance and attend a physical meeting at a specific time; this may sound familiar to those who have participated in the Canadian political process.
Iowa, however, has unique features. And Iowa Democrats have further unique features of their own, such as the rule of viability.
In each polling precinct, voters must arrive and publicly reveal their candidate of choice by standing among fellow supporters of that candidate. A head count is conducted and any candidate with less than 15% support is considered "not viable" and his or her supporters must distribute among the remaining "viable" candidates and final head count is taken and results announced for that precinct. This process happens more or less simultaneously in about 2,000 locations across Iowa. (New features this year allow some pre-caucus caucuses for those who are unable to attend the actual caucus meetings.)
In an extreme example, a candidate who gets 14% of the vote in every precinct would get 0 delegates because he or she would be non-viable everywhere and would be reported as having gotten 0% of the vote, as pre-viability results are not revealed. Many believe this is what happened in 2008 to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, who had been polling in the mid-high single digits but got near zero on caucus night. In this same scenario, another candidate whose support was concentrated in one region might get a bunch of viable votes and delegates while enjoying less support overall.
The caucus has become a five-way race. In one of the most recent polls, five candidates polled between 19 and 11 per cent. The six polls included in the RealClearPolitics average include three polls in which Sanders is leader, two in which Biden is leading, and one in which Buttigieg is leading. In those six polls, candidate position among each other has been all over the map.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | |
| Sanders | 3 | 3 | |||
| Biden | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Buttigieg | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||
| Warren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Klobuchar | 6 |
While Klobuchar is consistently fifth, she has strong regional support which should help her with viability and she has been surging of late, hitting double digits in 3 of the last 4 polls.
Sanders can afford to lose and very much benefits from winning.
If Biden loses, he is in trouble and if he places worse than second his campaign may not recover.
Buttigieg led in the polls consistently for about six weeks from mid-November to the end of 2019. For him to place worse than third would probably be a big blow for his campaign. Expectations are probably low and second place finish may give him the "big mo" coming out of Iowa. A win certainly would put him on an upward trajectory.
Warren's campaign has been in free fall and if she were to slip into fifth behind Klobuchar, she might have to drop out. Finishing in third would stabilize her campaign. Finishing first or second would give her the "big mo".
Klobuchar finishing fourth or better would give her the "big mo". However, much like Mike Huckabee in 2008, even a win might not be enough to make her a contender because she lacks the organization and money to compete in the states that follow.
What will be interesting to see is how this all plays out into the following states.
If Biden does poorly, he is likely to repeat that in New Hampshire in eight days. He has been dominating in South Carolina but does that slip away after two loses? If Biden wins, could he bounce to a win in New Hampshire, followed by wins in South Carolina and Nevada? Does that mean the race is over before Super Tuesday? Bottom line: Biden needs to finish in at least second place.
Regardless of the outcome in Iowa, Sanders is favoured in New Hampshire. He has led the last nine polls there and represents a neighbouring state. If Warren, who also represents a neighbouring state and has been running third in New Hampsire, does very badly in Iowa, this really helps Sanders. Bottom line: Sanders has the least to lose tonight and could finish third and still realistically win in New Hampshire.
Buttigieg has money and organization. He has led some polls in New Hampshire but has slipped into fourth place in the polling average of late. A win or second place in Iowa could lead to a win or second place in New Hampshire. Otherwise, he is likely to lag in New Hampshire and South Carolina which may eventually prove to be insurmountably bad for his campaign. Bottom line: Buttigieg needs to finish at least third and probably second to have a viable shot at the nomination.
Warren continues to poll okay in New Hampshire, where she is a de facto favourite daughter as she represents Massachusetts in the Senate and most New Hampshirites consume their news from the Boston media market. She also polls robustly in South Carolina. However, she has been moving in the wrong direction and is viewed as having negative momentum. Bottom line: Warren's campaign is on life support and a third place finish could allow that to continue, but she needs to finish first or second to spring back to life.
Others: Klobuchar may live to fight a few more days with a fourth or better finish, but short of a shock win, it is hard to see her even having an unlikely path to the nomination. Billionaires Bloomberg and Steyer will not place better than fifth and probably not better than seventh tonight, however they have a lot to gain out of tonight's results. If Biden does poorly, Steyer has been in second and third place in South Carolina polls and could benefit most. Bloomberg is playing for Super Tuesday and if Sanders is standing alone, Bloomberg might be able to defeat him in the big states. If two or three candidates are still viable heading into Super Tuesday, that's bad news for the billionaires.
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