New Hampshire primary

The chaos in Iowa ended up being the story coming out of Iowa, where otherwise there might have been three stories:

- Biden's hard fall

- Buttigieg's come-from-behind victory

- Klobuchar's surge to the second-tier alongside "frontrunners" Warren and Biden

New Hampshire voters who are more tuned in than ordinary voters may have read this in to the equation even though this was not a major focus of media coverage. This, coupled with a strong performance in Friday's debate, seem to be leading to a last minute surge for Klobuchar.

Sanders' support is locked in and loyal. He will perform in or around 30% no matter what happens. The big question for me tonight is: is Klobuchar's surge real and at whose expense does it come from, Buttigieg, Warren or Biden or some combination of two or three of them?

The two polls I am following most closely are the nightly tracking polls by Suffolk and Emerson because the number, which is inevitably old, is less important than the trend line that you can see.

Sanders is flat.

Buttigieg rose and has peaked or is falling.

Warren is flat.

Biden has fallen and bottomed out in the neighbourhood of Warren.

Klobuchar is enjoying a late surge.

This all makes intuitive sense. Everyone has turned their fire on Buttigieg and his support was softest. In the last Emerson poll, they asked people how sure they were of their vote and 85% of Sanders voters, 68% of Warren voters, 66% of Klobuchar voters and 59% of Buttigieg voters were sure.

So what are the possible outcomes and what do they mean?

Sanders

He is almost certain to win, and probably won't get much of a bump for doing so. He seems to have locked in a core of support with little room to grow or shrink. However, if he were to lose, this would be a shock and would lead to a series of stories about the establishment striking back against him, etc. Whether or not that would have any impact on his campaign remains to be seen.

Buttigieg

He sort of benefited from beating expectations in Iowa (this was muted by the chaos and delays). Now he may suffer from expectations; he is now expected to finish second with Sanders clearly in first and the others battling for third. If he slips into third, the story may be that he was a flash in the plan that may not be able to stand close scrutiny of his record or lack thereof. If he finishes second, it is steady as she goes. If he were to some how pull of another upset, this would make him the clear frontrunner for the nomination.

Klobuchar

As I wrote in my Iowa post, her better-than-expected finish in Iowa is helpful to her, but she still lacks the money and organization to fully capitalize on it. If she comes third in New Hampshire, she is the story and if she comes second she is a huge story. Nevada is next and is a caucus state which means the ground game really matters; can she build on momentum to win a low turnout, time-intense caucus process or does she move on to South Carolina where Biden once dominated but is likely slipping leaving votes on the table? She probably needs a win or at least two second places to get the cash to mount an air war on Super Tuesday.

Biden

Does he finish fourth or fifth? Both are a disaster, though now what is expected. He probably limps on to South Carolina, perhaps skipping Nevada. If he finishes third, which would have been considered fatal weeks ago, he may be on the road to recovery. Seems highly unlikely he finishes second unless there is a four-way muddled-up-tie in the low teens and he gets lucky by a fraction of a percentage point.

Warren

In my view, there is no room for both Warren and Sanders in the race. I had expected her to seize the left, but instead she has run as a quasi-moderate which doesn't seem to have helped her in the centre but has made it even more difficult for her to compete for the Bernie true believers. The outcome possibilities for Warren are similar to Biden, but unlike Biden, she doesn't have a beach head coming up in South Carolina, so her chances for rebirth are even less likely than Uncle Joe.