2019: Amazing year for political observers

2019 was a great year to be a political observer. Here is my top 10 list. Let me know what I missed in the comments.

10. Two Spanish elections

Spain returned a massive plurality for the socialists at the April elections, making a clear winner for the first time in a country that has had several inclusive elections over the past several years... or not.

The socialists had been governing very tenuously since a mid-parliament take over last year. The election saw them increase their share of seats in parliament from 85 to 123 in a considerable sign of personal redemption for Pedro Sánchez, the on-again, off-again leader of the socialists who has been controversial and was previously sacked for refusing to back the formation of a right-of-centre government following the previous elections.  With nearly double the seats of the runner up conservative party, only the socialists could realistically form a government.

However, Sánchez stubbornly refused to form a coalition with a more radical socialist party, and instead insisted on facing parliament alone, assuming left-wing parties would back him.  He was wrong and new elections were required in November.  The two socialist parties lost 10 seats between them, with a far-right populist party benefiting most leaping from fifth place to third and doubling its seats.  Sánchez will now agree to form a coalition with his more radical fellow socialists but has a less clear path to forming a government.  Abstentions from regional parties on confidence matters may be the only way to avoid a third trip to the polls.

9. Minority governments in NL and PEI for the first time

Minority governments are definitely on the rise in Canada, with four provinces now having them, including three (NB, NL and PE) who for all intents and purposes have them for the first time. This proved to be a harbinger for the federal election as well (see below).

8. Three-peat Israeli election

Israel had an election this spring in which the conservative coalition led by Bibi Netanyahu won 60 out of 120 seats. So close, yet so far. Unable to secure the support of the secular-yet-far-right-and-xenophobic party of Avigdor Lieberman, a former close ally of Netanyahu, a government could not be formed and for the first time Israel held its second election in one calendar year in September. Ironically, this indecision has allowed Netanyahu by default to become the country's longest serving prime minister during the inter-election caretaker period.

At the September election, Netanyahu's opponents gained ground, but Lieberman remained the kingmaker.  A grand coalition seemed possible for a time, but the main opposition Blue and White party refused to serve in a government in which the soon-to-be-indicted Netanyahu was prime minister, and Netanyahu and his Likud party refused to form a government with out him in the driver's seat.

The third election in 11 months is set for March 2.

7. EU election

EU parliamentary elections this spring were historic in that for the first time ever, the two largest groups in parliament - the conservatives and socialists - do not have a combined majority and will have to expand their power sharing agreement with smaller parties. This has already resulted in the preferred choices of both groups for EU commission president being rejected in favour of compromise candidate Ursula von der Leyen, a conservative and close ally of Angela Merkel. The election was a setback for the too big parties but a victory for moderates and the left, rather than for the far-right as had been predicted.

6. Greek snap election

Alex Tsipras' Syriza party had a meteoric rise in Greek politics. The beginning of the end of that meteoric rise began with a poor showing in the EU elections earlier this year.  Though this had no direct impact on Tsipras' standing, he called a snap election banking on recreating the magic of left-wing populist patriotism vs. the big, bad corporatists of Europe who hold Greece's large debt. Instead, the right-of-centre New Democracy party won an outright majority and returned to power.

5. Italian change of government

The 2018 Italian election had a peculiar outcome.  A right-wing populist party came first and a left-wing populist party came second.  These parties had little in common with each other, except that they hated the establishment.  They formed a grand coalition government anyway.  After a year in office, the EU elections triggered political change here as well, but of a very different sort than we saw in Greece.  The right-wing populist League party quit the government in which they represented the majority of seats hoping to trigger an election after doing very, very well in European elections.  Instead, their former coalition partners formed a new government with their much more ideological simpatico former rivals, the socialist Democratic Party.

4. Australian election

Australia has had six prime ministers since 2010 and was all set to add their seventh. Bill Shorten's Labor Party led in literally every single opinion poll for 17 months leading into the May election. In the end, he came up short (pardon the pun) and Scott Morrison (known in the press as ScoMo) won a third majority government for the conservative Liberal-National coalition. Things may get tougher for Morrison now that he has an opponent with an even better nickname: the new Labour leader is Anthony Albanese, better known as Albo.

3. Canadian federal election

Over the course of a few months we went from a sure Trudeau majority, to a sure Scheer majority, to a who-knows toss up. In my opinion, a second Liberal majority was always a tall order when you consider despite the "Trudeaumania" of 2015, the Liberal majority was only 12 and there were unprecedentedly large Liberal victories in the Atlantic and Manitoba where loss of seats was almost always guaranteed. (Not to mention the four seats in Alberta.)

The post-election conventional wisdom is one of the best examples of how expectations are how politics are measured, rather than actual results.  Trudeau was the big "winner" despite losing a majority many said was impossible to lose not that long ago.  Pre-election expectations were 130-145 Liberals seats, which they beat and therefore "won".  Andrew Scheer, despite winning more seats than any previous opposition leader, winning the popular vote and robbing Trudeau of his majority, was the "loser" because he foolishly predicted victory for himself and raised expectations.  The NDP had their worst showing since the year 2000, but because Singh did well in the debates and saved the furniture he "won" too.  The only real winner was probably the Bloc Quebecois which has likely restored itself as a major force in national politics for the next few cycles at least.

2. Democratic primary

My man Joe Biden seems to be surviving despite many expectations to the contrary.  However, he faces troubled waters ahead.  Both Iowa and New Hampshire are shaky for Biden.  The current polling averages have Biden third in a tight four-way race with Pete Buttigieg at 22%, Bernie Sanders at 20%, Biden at 18%, and Elizabeth Warren at 16%.  Over in New Hamphire, the polling average reads: Sanders 19%, Buttigieg 18%, Biden 14%, Warren 13%.

If Joe Biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is difficult to see how he recovers.  Previous frontrunners have thought they could do so, but I must have missed the inaugurations of presidents Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush.

Biden's hope rests in a repeat of the John Kerry playbook in 2004.  Kerry was running third-to-forth in Iowa and pulled an upset victory, that catapulted to a runaway victory in New Hampshire and an easy skate to the nomination.

I say there are three potential paths to the Democratic nomination in the USA:

a) the establishment front runner, who wins all or most states: see Mondale 1984, Gore 2000, and to some extent Clinton 2016;
b) the acceptable moderate: see Dukakis 1988, Clinton 1992;
c) the outsider who wins Iowa: see Carter 1976, Obama 2008.

Buttigieg and Sanders clearly fit into the Carter/Obama mold.  Warren, in relative contrast to Sanders, may fit into the Dukasis/Clinton mold.   Biden is of course the typical Mondale/Gore type frontrunner.

If Biden wins Iowa, he wins the nomination.  If Biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire, he is done.  If any of the above wins both Iowa and New Hamphire, they will be very difficult to stop.  If there is a split decision between Iowa and New Hampshire, we may not know the nominee for many months.

1. Brexit

What a shit show. After years of negotiation and several waves of cabinet resignations along the way, Theresa May presented her deal to leave the EU. Parliament rejected it and May was widely criticized. But then parliament voted on eight (yes 8!) alternatives and parliament rejected all of them also. When May proposed something that might pass parliament - her deal with the option to consider whether to vote on whether to have a second referendum (yes it was that tenuous) - she faced a full-on cabinet revolt and resigned.

The UK has its third prime minister in four years. I wrote more about May's demise on Facebook some months ago. Boris' rise was controversial and he is a divisive figure described by some as Britain's Trump. He won the leadership in part, allegedly, by shenanigans when he apparently lent support to a less palatable rival who won a place in the runoff by two votes. Boris would probably have won anyway, but this move made it a sure thing.

Boris went on to govern awkwardly in a minority situation, proroguing parliament and being overrulled by the courts.

However, the Remainers in parliament could not get out of their own way and stop or replace Johnson and instead aided him and circumventing fixed-date election law to call a snap poll.  The moderate Lib Dems who campaigned as a die-hard remain option felt they had the most to gain and instead were crushed horribly, as was Labour.  Now Johnson leads the largest Conservative majority since 1987 and probably the most conservative government in the modern history of the UK.  All thanks to the strong help of parties of the left and centre.  Great job, guys!