tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post7235752034898601161..comments2023-10-28T11:29:07.881-03:00Comments on Politics from a New Brunswick perspective: A brief look at the ridingsnbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-51567036994991617132010-09-24T13:23:41.967-03:002010-09-24T13:23:41.967-03:00These "new" results work only with some ...These "new" results work only with some form of prop rep which NB does not presently utilize. (g) All indications in the north - contrary to even what I would expect - are that the Tories have the possibility of several seats, esp in the Restigouche region and of course Shippegan, maybe Tracadie thouhh it would be interesting of M. Dugual won hios seat!SCohenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13557757870451035528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-78493797356545486692010-09-11T17:13:13.616-03:002010-09-11T17:13:13.616-03:00I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with...I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with Campbellton and believe it will be much closer in Dalhousie Restigouche East. I think Arsebeault has an edge if only because he faces a divided Tory party in that riding and even their signs were slow to be placed up. However, Greg Davis , the Tory candidate in Campbellton (and yes I know it has another name but I am being brief), is a very popular Deputy Mayor of Campbellton. <br /><br />Also, on the surface, it looks like a Liberal seat but historically it is one of the safest seats for the Tories in northern NB. Think Fernand Dube in the Hatfield era. There are many Tories here and others from narby ridings helping.Also, Bernie Valcourt's sister has an excellent chance tp defeat Bert Paulin. Now Senator Percy Mockler, long time Tory organizer extradorinarire, refused any free trips from the Liberals to leave his former riding and is helping her. Stay tuned for this one and for Campbellton. Dalhousie Restigouche East could be a surprise but it has a far longer Liberal tradition than the Campbelklton area (why do you think Campbellton was created in 1967 by the Libs? They wanted to create a riding to box in Tories so they could win all of Restigouche which then had triple member ridings.) The candidate in Dal-Rest East is also from Campbellton and even down here, I am hearing all is not well though I am not yet ready to call it, definitely leaning Liberal while Campbellton is leading Tory and Madawaska Les Lacs is a toss up.SCohenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13557757870451035528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-19504932668720943742010-09-11T17:13:11.649-03:002010-09-11T17:13:11.649-03:00I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with...I am just rating the ridings now but disagree with Campbellton and believe it will be much closer in Dalhousie Restigouche East. I think Arsebeault has an edge if only because he faces a divided Tory party in that riding and even their signs were slow to be placed up. However, Greg Davis , the Tory candidate in Campbellton (and yes I know it has another name but I am being brief), is a very popular Deputy Mayor of Campbellton. <br /><br />Also, on the surface, it looks like a Liberal seat but historically it is one of the safest seats for the Tories in northern NB. Think Fernand Dube in the Hatfield era. There are many Tories here and others from narby ridings helping.Also, Bernie Valcourt's sister has an excellent chance tp defeat Bert Paulin. Now Senator Percy Mockler, long time Tory organizer extradorinarire, refused any free trips from the Liberals to leave his former riding and is helping her. Stay tuned for this one and for Campbellton. Dalhousie Restigouche East could be a surprise but it has a far longer Liberal tradition than the Campbelklton area (why do you think Campbellton was created in 1967 by the Libs? They wanted to create a riding to box in Tories so they could win all of Restigouche which then had triple member ridings.) The candidate in Dal-Rest East is also from Campbellton and even down here, I am hearing all is not well though I am not yet ready to call it, definitely leaning Liberal while Campbellton is leading Tory and Madawaska Les Lacs is a toss up.SCohenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13557757870451035528noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-88845745648270202672010-08-30T19:02:52.513-03:002010-08-30T19:02:52.513-03:00Great stuff, nbp. If you want my opinion, I think ...Great stuff, nbp. If you want my opinion, I think this is one election where the campaign will matter big time. If the Tories implode, like they did in the Miramichi region last election (for different reasons this time of course), you could see a bunch of dark horse candidates ride the coattails of their leader, premier Graham, to victory. A little too early to tell just yet, but my keen political eye already sees little cracks that have the potential to widen as things move along. As Charles always says...stay tuned!nbthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18194542132406632807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-64848333974221876562010-08-26T14:17:21.083-03:002010-08-26T14:17:21.083-03:00Don't feel downtrodden or way off base just ye...Don't feel downtrodden or way off base just yet Danny Boy. nothing is written in stone by the greedy Fake Left or the Numb Dumb Neocons The wicked game is never over until the Fat Lady sings and the old Queen just allowed the latest circus to begin in "The Place to BE" Lots of surprises could be in store for us all to enjoy within the next 30 days or so eh?David Raymond Amoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06553336660119659315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-88184595471959372842010-08-26T12:55:41.132-03:002010-08-26T12:55:41.132-03:00Well yikes, looks like the new CRA poll throws a w...Well yikes, looks like the new CRA poll throws a wrench in most of my predictions.danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-24487518596485478112010-08-21T10:40:32.605-03:002010-08-21T10:40:32.605-03:00Presently there is still a large undecided factor ...Presently there is still a large undecided factor which is usually not good for government in power but also means some people still not sure about PC policies & direction: The handfull of liberal rural southern NB seats are in real danger along with 3 out of 4 Miramichi ridings. The PC machine will have to perform well to win over an extra 3 to 5 seats in Urban NB:St. John, Moncton & Fredericton. They seemed poised to do so. But, the NDP may just take Tracadie, they are on the rise within last few wks. So could a minority gov happen? I agree with Daniel that it is PC who are on the momemtum! Graham rose but then stalled! Still close overall. It will be a candidate to candidate battle and it will be dirty!Beausoleilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00590723031697226484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-13111243139026186082010-08-14T20:30:28.497-03:002010-08-14T20:30:28.497-03:00Thanks for allowing my coments to stand the test o...Thanks for allowing my coments to stand the test of time. It speaks well off you in my book atleast.<br /><br />Believe it or not I largely agree with your asesment of the wicked game as well despite the possible quips from the very shy Mr Spinks (rest assured I would relish them and respond bigtime) However methinks the polical animals are very wary of the wild card known as the Joker or the Court Jester. that guy with noname could upset the cart full of rotten apples and a bunch of ordinary non political type folk could get elected by their fellow very pissed of Maritimers who have no wish to vote blue or red this time around. N'esy Pas? <br /><br />Veritas Vincit<br />David Raymond AmosDavid Raymond Amoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06553336660119659315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-452558068340493932010-08-10T14:59:41.724-03:002010-08-10T14:59:41.724-03:00As always excellent analysis NBPolitico. I could...As always excellent analysis NBPolitico. I could quip about a couple of ridings but I concur it will be a close election. Judging from the NDP first salvo it's also going to be a bit dirty. Hopefully the two parties that actually have a shot of winning a seat stay out of the muck.Spinkshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17482377548277021536noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-17095813338570610752010-08-10T01:28:16.136-03:002010-08-10T01:28:16.136-03:00Looks like I ended up with:
PC: 25
Lib: 21
Toss-u...Looks like I ended up with:<br /><br /><b>PC: 25<br />Lib: 21<br />Toss-up:9</b><br /><br />**Apologies for the wall of text, nbp. Just can;t help myself when an election rolls around ;)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-42413010412496345072010-08-10T01:24:23.062-03:002010-08-10T01:24:23.062-03:0046)New Maryland-Sunbury West - currently Progressi...46)New Maryland-Sunbury West - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />A Carr in a suburban-rural riding near Fredericton. I think I've seen this movie before.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />47)York - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />A riding that has thwarted incumbents for ages. The Liberals have a better candidate than Urquhart this time around - but they also had a better candidate than him *last* time around. Also, let's not forget that this riding is on Alward's doorstep, and the PCs will likely get a lift form that.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />48)York North - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />I can't foresee MacDonald waning to his 2003 margin; native son Alward is party leader (and right next door), and there's nothing to indicate significant weakness in MacDonald or significant strength in the Liberal campaign here.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely PC<br /><br />49)Woodstock - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />A no-brainer.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />50)Carleton - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />What nbpolitico said.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />51)Victoria-Tobique - currently Liberal<br /><br />Larry Kennedy's popularity as a politician, ironically, seems to stem from his desire to keep an arm's length away from politics. He's turned down repeated cabinet offers so that he can maintain his private medical practice, and while that might not go over well somewhere like Fredericton, it wins him lots of brownie points in a relatively remote area with precious few doctors.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely Liberal<br /><br />52)Grand Falls-Drummond-St. André - currently Liberal<br /><br />Ouellette was popular as mayor, and has been popular as MLA. No reason to think he'll lose.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />53)Restigouche-la-Vallée - currently Liberal<br /><br />Paulin did win his by-election rather comfortably. However, for reasons already stated, provincial by-election results are an especially poor barometer for general election performance. That said, Paulin has some establishment and street-cred here (at least in the Restigouche half of the riding), so he starts with an advantage.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans Liberal<br /><br />54)Edmundston-St. Basile - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Not sure what gives the Liberals cause to be optimistic here. Dubé is rock-solid.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />55)Madawaska-les-Lacs - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />It's probably best for the PCs here that Volpé's horse in the race beat the party brass's chosen star - this race will be won using Volpé's political machine, not Alward's footsoldiers.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PCdanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-13399311360180339552010-08-10T00:46:56.960-03:002010-08-10T00:46:56.960-03:0045)Fredericton-Silverwood - currently Liberal
Thi...45)Fredericton-Silverwood - currently Liberal<br /><br />This is my home riding, so I've been following it in much more detail than other ridings.<br /><br />First, I'm not sure where you got the idea that the PC candidate here is "far-right." From what I saw of MacDonald's candidacy for the federal Conservative nomination, he was regarded as being to the <i>left</i> of "Red Tory" Keith Ashfield. As for his stated positions on smaller government - seems more like paying service to all the right conservative talking points than laying out a far-right platform. MacDonald's problem won't be his ideology; it'll be getting the Fredericton party brass to back him enthusiastically. He nearly thwarted their hand-picked candidate for the federal nomination, and finally showed them up in the battle for the provincial nomination. Guess we'll see if that old "one shade of blue" chant rings true.<br /><br />Rick Miles has been a rising star, but a star far outshone by his Frederictonian colleagues at the cabinet table. Miles is easily the most forgettable of Fredericton's 4 MLAs, but at the same time, hasn't had to wear some of the unpopular changes in government policy that have dogged Byrne and Lamrock. So, in having a lower profile than his neighbours, could Miles actually be *helping* his chances at re-election? Or will he be relegated to the status of (as I actually once heard him called) "that guy who isn't Greg Byrne, T.J. Burke, or Kelly Lamrock"?<br /><br />As for the NDP, much hay is always made of some high-profile NDP candidate running in this seat in every election, and every time, they fall flat. If the NDP does increase its vote share, it will likely be at the expense of both major parties.<br /><br />It'll be a fracas in the heart of the capital, to be sure, and not enough dust has settled to make a clear prediction yet.<br /><br />Seat projection: Toss-updanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-13415917099116386162010-08-10T00:41:56.053-03:002010-08-10T00:41:56.053-03:0041)Grand Lake-Gagetown - currently Liberal
...I w...41)Grand Lake-Gagetown - currently Liberal<br /><br />...I wonder how the Liberal candidate will campaign on the platform of "I opposed the scrapping of your ferry, so I'm running for the party that wanted to scrap your ferry."<br /><br />That aside, the PCs probably have a good pickup opportunity here. McGinley's numbers may have dropped so substantially in part because he faced one of the Carr brothers, but the severe shift in the riding's boundaries was not kind to the Liberals: the liberal-leaning northeastern suburbs of Fredericton were removed, and the more-conservative areas of Gagetown and southern Queens County were added. With McGinley not reoffering and Carr safely tucked into his new seat in New Maryland-Sunbury West, this seems to be the type of riding where, if Generic Liberal X faced Generic Conservative X, then Generic Conservative X would win. And if we want to talk ground game, the PC's Wetmore was nominated earlier than any other candidate in the province in this cycle - not to mention that he'll likely be getting a lot of help from the super-safe Brothers Carr next door.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />42)Fredericton-Nashwaaksis - currently Liberal<br /><br />Burke was a rising Liberal star who came surprisingly close to being snuffed out in 2006. Lifford will likely seal the deal, as Burke seems to have put his political career on the back burner in favour of his legal practice, departing from cabinet as a result. One wonders if he even *wants* to be re-elected...<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />43)Fredericton-Ft. Nashwaak - currently Liberal<br /><br />Lamrock is both loved and loathed, but of all the Liberal seats in Fredericton, this one's probably the weakest pickup opportunity for the PCs. Lamrock may received mixed reviews province-wide, but in the riding that encompasses a large swath of Fredericton's poorest citizens, his work on poverty reduction and social assistance reforms strikes a chord. He'll most likely be around after this election, regardless of the result.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely Liberal<br /><br />44)Fredericton-Lincoln - currently Liberal<br /><br />I don't think that Greg Byrne is quite so vulnerable, especially since he's the closest the Liberals have to an heir-apparent should things not pan out for them in this election. Craig Leonard is certainly hitting the pavement, though - he'll have to if he wants to wrestle this from Byrne.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely Liberal<br /><br />(continued)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-51302264695343300512010-08-09T23:31:19.475-03:002010-08-09T23:31:19.475-03:0031)Saint John-Fundy - currently Liberal
Hard to s...31)Saint John-Fundy - currently Liberal<br /><br />Hard to say. Constituents are rather upset at the way Jamieson was treated by the Liberal party, but the Liberal candidate is essentially Jamieson's hand-picked successor. I'll give the Liberals a slight-edge here.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans Liberal<br /><br />32)Rothesay - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Blaney's margin withered with the popularity of the Lord government over the years, and the Liberals' Victoria Clarke seems like a worthy opponent. This riding has proven to be an exceptional bellwether, voting for the provincial popular-vote-winning party for the last 25 years or more. Based on that, I have to give the edge to the party that appears more likely to win the provincial popular vote based on current circumstances.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />33)Saint John East - currently Liberal<br /><br />Roly's gone, and the new Liberal ncandidate is but a mere shadow compared to his predecessor - but that should be plenty to win this super-safe liberal riding.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />34)Saint John Harbour - currently Liberal<br /><br />Ed Doherty is a very popular figure in a riding that seems to only vote against the Liberals when there's a highly-credible NDP alternative (at least in recent times).<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />35)Saint John Portland - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Holder will likely increase his margin now that he's not stuck defending a government that has the perception of being "Moncton-centric" in a city that still thinks it's the biggest kid on the NB block.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely PC<br /><br />36)Saint John Lancaster - currently Liberal<br /><br />Though lewd and crude he may be, he's an oddly good fit for this riding. The cantankerous union man in a union town.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />37)Fundy-River Valley - currently Liberal<br /><br />Keir lucked out on the vote-split that occurred here in 2006, but it'll be hard for him to tout his cabinet position as reason for re-election when that cabinet position involved the role of being the water-carrier for the NB Power deal in a riding full of NB Power employees.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />38)Charlotte-the-Isles - currently Liberal<br /><br />A better question to ask here is: What would the Liberals have to do to LOSE this seat?<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />39)Charlotte-Campobello - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />An interesting one for sure, and one whose result is predicated on whether this whole People's Alliance of NB catches on at all. I'm inclined to think that Charlotte County might be more partial to a PC party lead by an anglophone from Carleton County than it was to a PC party lead by a francophone from Moncton, but the mayor of St. Andrews may do just well enough to upset the apple cart for the Tories and allow for a slim Liberal win. <br /><br />Seat projection: Toss up<br /><br />40)Oromocto - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />A conservative fortress. Though I personally find Carr to be overrated, he won't be losing here.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Progressive Conservative<br /><br />(continued)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-10310101046886056182010-08-09T22:20:42.935-03:002010-08-09T22:20:42.935-03:0021)Moncton East - currently Liberal
The lack of L...21)Moncton East - currently Liberal<br /><br />The lack of Lord certainly dents the PC's chances here, but I wouldn't read too heavily into the tea leaves re: the by-election results (the PCs even won the ridiculously Liberal riding of Shediac-Cap-Pelé by a reasonable margin in a pre-2003 by-election). Collins is competent, but the PCs really, really want this one back. This one will turn based on who has the more vociferous ground game. <br /><br />Seat projection: Toss-up<br /><br />22)Moncton West - currently Liberal<br /><br />Two strong, female candidates in a traditionally close riding with good organizations behind them. Should be interesting.<br /><br />Seat projection: Toss up<br /><br />23)Moncton North - currently vacant<br /><br />Blais has been a campaigning machine in this riding ever since she nearly played giant-killer vs. Mike Murphy in 2006. I won't do what many do and dismiss Robart as "that Magician" - it would be foolish to underestimate him - but it would be strange to think that he could stave of Blais when someone as established as Murphy barely managed to do so. This really seems like Blais' race to lose.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />24)Moncton Crescent - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Betts hasn't had much to fear in previous elections, and a strong challenger will more likely reduce his margins than outright defeat him.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely PC<br /><br />25)Petitcodiac - currently Liberal<br /><br />Wally probably will wish he had followed Joan into retirement after election night. Wally Stiles won this riding because he was a PC, not because he was Wally Stiles. He'll likely do better here than a generic Liberal, but there's only a faint hope of him retaining his seat in the riding that is essentially the "spiritual sister" to Albert.<br /><br />Seat projection: Likely PC<br /><br />26)Riverview - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Fitch is as popular now as he ever was.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />27)Albert - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Only way the Conservatives lose this seat is if the CoR party magically comes back.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />28)Kings East - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />The Liberals couldn't hold onto it when they were on the upswing, and they sure as heck aren't going to take it back in *this* election cycle.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />29)Hampton-Kings - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Bev Harrison is well-entrenched organizationally, and the fact that the Liberal candidate could potentially unite the NDP and Liberal vote *here* has about as much relevance as it would in Crowfoot, Alberta.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />30)Quispamsis - currently Liberal<br /><br />Mary Schryer should win this race on her government CV alone, but certain Saint John political figures need to shut their mouths re: disparaging comments toward the suburbs, lest they muck things up for her.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans Liberal<br /><br />(continued)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-86237031050898931152010-08-09T21:22:25.825-03:002010-08-09T21:22:25.825-03:0011)Miramichi-Bay du Vin - currently Liberal
Bill ...11)Miramichi-Bay du Vin - currently Liberal<br /><br />Bill Fraser is pretty prolific in his home riding; also, Tanker's wins were a bit of a contrarian populist blip in what has generally been a strongly Liberal-friendly riding.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />12)Miramichi Centre - currently Liberal<br /><br />The cradle of the CoR party would certainly have to be considered were there to be any PC resurgence in the province; the seat has voted pretty strongly for the Liberals in the past 2 elections, but has tended to be a free-for-all in elections where the Liberals weren't on the ascendant. <br /><br />Seat projection: Toss up<br /><br />13)Southwest Miramichi - currently Liberal<br /><br />If I were analyzing this seat from a distance, I would agree with your assessment. However, having spent the first 18 years of my life here, I'll add some insight as to the goings-on here. The PC nomination convention here drew over 800 voters - more than what most *federal* riding conventions draw. Seems to suggest the PCs have the big mo here. Moreover, the PCs did something that neither major party has done in SW Miramichi since the '90s: nominated someone from the more heavily-populated (less sparsely-populated?) northern half of the riding, more "Exurban Commuters to Miramichi" than "Central New Brunswickers," and the area that was arguably the hardest-hit economically in the recent slew of mill closures. This riding tends to go through incumbents like dirty laundry (Brewer's re-election last time out was a quirky exception), and being a cabinet minister hasn't proven to shield MLAs from being unceremoniously dumped by the electorate (ask former finance minister/business minister Norm Betts, or former minister for seniors Reg MacDonald - the last two incumbents for the riding). As it stands, the PC candidate is a young and charismatic municipal councillor who didn't step on too many toes (a la Brent Taylor), and has received a lot of backing from the party apparatus thus far. If my read on the ground is correct, this looks like a riding that could potentially go PC even if the Liberals were to win re-election.<br /><br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />14)Rogersville-Kouchibouguac - currently vacant<br /><br />If the Liberals were polling at a level that was more appropriate for a first-term government in NB, I'd say that this was golden pickup opportunity. As it stands, that is not the case. Poirier won this riding by a lot last time, and she still has a lot of pull in the area. All else being equal, the Liberals would have to be doing a fair bit better than they are now in order to have a good chance here.<br /> <br />Seat projection: Leans PC<br /><br />15)Kent - currently Liberal<br /><br />Graham will be re-elected, unless this election turns into some surprise Tory blowout like 1999. In such a scenario, he gets swept out to sea.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />16)Kent South - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Agreed re: Claude Williams. This isn't the kind of election where a 3-term PC incumbent should have to be looking over his shoulders.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />17)Shediac-Cap-Pele - currently Liberal<br /><br />No contest.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />18)Tantramar - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />The Liberals will only snare this if the bottom falls out of the PC campaign.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe PC<br /><br />19)Memramcook-Lakeville-Dieppe - currently Liberal<br /><br />Shediac 2.0.<br /><br />Seat projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />20)Dieppe Centre-Lewisville - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Not sure why you'd be so certain that this is an assured Liberal pickup. Francophones won't just abandon the PCs en masse based solely on the fact that their leader isn't a Francophone (see Hatfield, Richard....or Graham, Shawn, for that matter). Not that the Liberals can't grab this seat, but nothing suggests to me that the situation here is so cut-and-dried.<br /><br />Seat projection: Toss-up<br /><br />(continued)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-80602262050486002502010-08-09T21:15:46.283-03:002010-08-09T21:15:46.283-03:001)Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - currently Liber...1)Campbellton-Restigouche Centre - currently Liberal<br /><br />I don't agree that this riding is worth monitoring. Roy Boudreau has been a fairly benign speaker (at least for the raucus leg sessions to which we've been subjected as of late), and his riding had been reliably Liberal, even in harsh times for the party province-wide. <br /><br />Current projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />2)Dalhousie-Restigouche East - currently Liberal<br /><br />I'll agree with your assessment here. Arsenault probably won't win a supermajority this time (more due to the economic problems the area is experiencing than anything to do with Arsenault of the Liberals), but it wouldn't be overly-generous to say that he'll still probably win with 55% of the vote or more.<br /><br />Current projection: Leans Liberal<br /><br />3)Nigadoo-Chaleur - currently Liberal<br /><br />Haché, for reasons already stated by nbpolitico.<br /><br />Current projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />4)Bathurst - currently Liberal<br /><br />Nancy McKay made this race close (twice) when the Liberals and PCs were neck-and-neck province-wide. Hard to see her not being at least even-money this time around, especially with recent polling realities showing at least a slight PC tilt. While Brian Kenny is now touting a cabinet portfolio, McKay also has her role at the head of the recent track-and-field championships to tout.<br /><br />Current projection: Toss-up<br /><br />5)Nepisiguit - currently Liberal<br /><br />Definite toss-up. Any one of the three major parties could win; the result depends on whether the NDP manages to draw votes from the anti-Graham Tories or the left-leaning Liberals, and if they do, if it's enough to squeak up the middle in a 3-way race.<br /><br />Current projection: Toss up<br /><br />6)Caraquet - currently Liberal<br /><br />This riding would've remained Liberal, even without the hospital re-opening. No contest.<br /><br />Current projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />7)Lameque-Shippagan-Miscou - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />I don't agree with the assumption that having Alward at the top of the ticket somehow writes the PCs out of play in many Fracophone ridings, but I agree that, even in such a scenario, this seat would be safe.<br /><br />Current projection: Safe PC<br /><br />8)Centre-Peninsule-Saint-Saveur - currently Liberal<br /><br />Transport minister + rural riding = your road is probably getting paved right now. <br /><br />Current projection: Safe Liberal<br /><br />9)Tracadie-Sheila - currently Progressive Conservative<br /><br />Certainly a 3-way race, but I'm not sure how much of a chance Duguay has. If seats change hands in this election, it will most likely be a result of anti-government sentiment; thing is, this riding has been voting against Liberals since before it was cool, so unlike many Acadian Peninsula ridings, the PCs actually have a robust ground network here. It isn't impossible for Duguay to win - just not the likeliest outcome.<br /><br />Current projection: Toss up<br /><br />10)Miramichi Bay-Neguac - currently Liberal<br /><br />Carmel Robichaud was abhorrent in cabinet, thus getting tossed into the back bench, but I'd still call her the favourite to win here. This is pretty low on the PC's list of winnable ridings, and the NDP blew its chances with Duguay opting to run elsewhere.<br /><br />Current projection: Leans Liberal<br /><br />(continued)danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-83869812301852588672010-08-09T18:33:48.266-03:002010-08-09T18:33:48.266-03:00I enjoyed the thorough analysis, nbpolitico. I'...I enjoyed the thorough analysis, nbpolitico. I'm inclined to think, however, that both the tangibles and the intangibles might suggest a seat count that isn't quite as solid for the Liberals. Alward may be a bit of a cold fish, but Graham's Liberals haven't managed outpoll Alward's Tories since before the NB Power deal was announced; that has to at least somewhat concern the Liberals. I don't doubt the Liberals' ability to catch up (they have a more-than-capable team at their disposal), but that's what they're going to be doing over the next couple of weeks: playing catch-up. They have their share of good constituency MLAs, but even if the PCs only end up outpolling the Liberals by about 3 points on election day (less than they have been as of late), it still means that the Liberals would lose a great deal of their MLAs, high-quality or not.<br /><br />I'll follow up with a post of my own riding-by-riding look. Let's start up some discussion!danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.com