Monday, April 23, 2007

Blogger seeks Liberal nomination


The following is a public service announcement brought by yours truly, nbpolitico.

Last week there was some coverage in the mainstream press and a lot of coverage among blogs of the story of James Curran, a blogger in the Niagara region who had clinched the Liberal nomination in his riding but was arrested hours before on charges of fraud.

I am hopeful that this will not scar Canadians perception of the relevance and credibility of bloggers, something that is growing more-and-more every day.

To that end, I would like to encourage you all to offer your support to Rachel Décoste who will be a candidate for the Liberal nomination in the riding of Ottawa-Orléans this coming Sunday.

Rachel, like me, was a Gerard Kennedy supporting blogger and you can find her blog here. I had the pleasure of meeting this impressive young woman at the leadership convention in Montreal and hope to see her become an MP in the not too distant future.

Rachel is a very intelligent woman. She speaks 4 languages. She is a woman when the Liberal Party and the Commons itself are in desperate need of more ladies. She is an engineer, a trade that is sorely under represented in parliament. And, even without all that, she would be a great candidate. She has passion, she has vision, she has big dreams for her riding and for her country.

And, moreover, for bloggers of all political stripes, I think it would be in our interest to see a grassroots, real blogger elected to the House of Commons.

Therefore, I invite all of you - even if you aren't Liberals - to drop by her campaign site and make a donation.

She is a competitive candidate for the nomination but she is in a tough fight. She is up against four men: two former MPs, a former president of the riding association and a city councillor who happens to be the son of another former MP. It is a tall order, but she has proved remarkable organizational skill and is probably one of two (at most three) viable candidates in this race.

As anyone who has worked on a campaign before knows, every little bit helps, and your support would mean a lot to me and to bloggers. I am sure it would mean a lot to Rachel too but this is an unsolicited public service announcement that I am making on my own intiative wihtout her direction or consent.

$5, $10, $50 or even $1100 (yeah right) ... make your mark and make it count.

Just a little background for you who are interested in donating:
  • donations less than $200 are private and your name will not be listed in financial disclosures - your anonymity is safe

  • under the new fundraising rules there are three "pots" of fundraising, though the limits were dropped from $5400 to $1100 by the Tories, it is actually $3300 per party. Under the old rules you could donate a blanket $5400 per party to any of its arms. Under the new rules, you can donate $1100 each to a central party, $1100 cumulatively to a party's ridings, candidates and nomination contestants, and $1100 cumulatively to leadership contestants in a given cycle.
Therefore, even if you have contributed $1100 to the Liberal Party of Canada, you can still give to a Liberal candidate like Rachel. Even if you have given $1100 to Conservative ridings and candidates, you can still give a candidate of another party, like Rachel.

Let's make a difference... help her out.


Anonymous said...

i think your advice one financing rules is wrong - you want to check. Yoiu can't give $1100 to Liberal candidates and then $1100 to Tory candidates - its $1100 period.

Anonymous said...

also donations to a candidate for nomination do not generate tax receipts.

Spinks said...

I'd be careful what I was getting into. Rachel has also compared Stephen Harper to a Nazi in her blog. Sure lots of people have done that but I don't think it's a good quality for an MP. Wisely she's removed the entry and my calling her on it from her blog but I'd go into this with eyes wide open nbpolitico.

Anonymous said...

Whatever happend to "innocent until proven guilty" folks.

You're sounding like Conservatives.

scott said...

It'll be a tough fight as I hear there are a lot of folks who are abandoning the Liberal party in many of the Ottawa ridings for the dippers, including Ottawa-Orleans.

And that doesn't surprise as I remember when I was campaigning door to door for Walter Robinson back in '04 and found that many people were looking for change and wanted to support him [Walter] as he had a great record with the Canadian Taxpayers federation.

Unfortunately, there were a few bureaucrats who balked on change because they were still uneasy about Harper (bought into Herle, Reid and Duffy's ad hominems). However, I would guess that when looking at the recent SES polling numbers on Harper's popularity, that all that has changed significantly in three years.

That, coupled with a poor leader and a vote split on left should be enough to put Galipeau over the top.

scott said...

I guess I didn't back up my claims with any numbers.

SES numbers

The numbers have almost doubled since February in Ontario for those who would be "somewhat comfortable" with Harper forming a majority from 15.8 percent to 33 percent.

But what has to be more troubling is the drop in the uncomfortable level of Ontario voters towards a Harper majority from 30.6 percent to 17.6 percent. In other words, Ontarioans have bought into the fact that Dion appears to be a poor leader and want Harper to govern outright.

SES numbers

Moreover, the fact that Harper scored significantly higher, at 42 percent nationally, on who would make the best Prime Minister as opposed to Dion who was stalled at 17 percent in a tie with Jack Layton and the NDP. As for Ontario, the number were just as bleak for the Liberals so there no need to hash out those numbers.

So couple that with the fact that in Ottawa-Orleans, the NDP have shown a steady increase in their numbers from 2,169 votes in 2000 to 5,905 votes in 2004 to 9,339 in 2006, there's reason to believe that Rachel Décoste will have a fight on her hands for second spot. If you want to see her get to parliament, you'd better hop on the 95 and go help her out, nbpolitico because it's not looking good.

scott said...

My mistake. I had the impression she gained the nomination there.

Anonymous said...

Liberals enjoy using the word Nazi, because it makes them feel better a sort of quasi cleansing yet short of of the murderous Nazi Organization there polititical views are very much the same.

nbpolitico said...

Anon at 3:59 - Actually, I am correct. Please see section 405 of the Canada Elections Act: the limit applies to "a particular registered party". There are separate running totals for contributions to other parties.

anon at 6:03 - that is correct.

Spinks - this is the first I've heard of this, but I know this woman well and have spoken to her in detail on many policy issues. She is solid.

Scott - I think you and I could enter into a lengthy circular debate, but I don't want to bog this blog down on an obscure race in an Ottawa riding when its focus is meant to be on New Brunswick. Needless to say, I disagree with your analysis. The polling data is probably a sample of about 400 people in the whole province of Ontario where there are 106 ridings, it cannot be fairly equated as a measure of opinion in any particular riding. Moreover, the circumstances of the 2006 election in the Ottawa-Orleans riding amounted to a "perfect storm" for a Conservative candidate and the riding when blue by only 125 votes.

scott said...

As you wish. One more thing though, the sample the night before the election in '06 equated to 1000+ people for the entire country. That's for 308 ridings (almost three times the amount for Ontario which has 106 ridings). So you could make the same case for SES's poll as well. However, they were right on the money so it's a tough call.

I'm a big believer in polls when executing strategy. I wish ppl had of listen to me in the last NB election regarding a few poll question to shoot out there mid point. Maybe if they did, some would not be sitting in opposition.

Anonymous said...

Actually, there seems to be 10 times as many people wanting to be Liberal candidates in the Ottawa area compared to the last time around. From Nepean-Carleton to this riding, there are SEVERAL qualified people in competition for each riding! Is it because after OVER A YEAR in power and the LARGEST SPENDING budget in Canadian History Harper`s Conservatives are no further ahead in the polls than they were when they took power?? Is it because they know that Harper`s team (Baird, Oda,ect.) will be no match to the Dion team (Ignafieff, Kennedy, Dryden, Rae, ect., ect.)?

scott said...


The liberal team has been significantly damaged by scandal and poor leadership. Dion's surrogates (or at least the ones who are willing to be sacrificial lambs in the next election) pale in comparison to the team Chretien had underneath him in the mid 90s.

Many prominent Liberal MPs have already decided to take a pass on Dion's leadership ... the total number of Liberals who have abandoned the Dion ship to 15. A team in its own, anon. ;-)

nbpolitico said...

Scott - I do not dispute that the poll may be an accurate measure of the general feeling in Ontario. However, Ontario is not a homogenous place nor is Canada.

SES correctly predicted the results of the last election at 36-30 but that does not mean that the Tories got 36% in every single riding and the Grits 30%.

Similarly, this poll is reflective of the overall feeling for Harper across Ontario, not necessarily in the single riding of Orleans.

scott said...

That's definitely not the case, nbpolitico. During the 2000 election, I was involved heavily with obtaining polling data for the Canadian Alliance candidate in Nepean-Carleton. We had the most advance system in Canada for breaking down data and it proved to be very beneficial to our campaign chances. We used a database built up by Elections Canada which broke down the voters by ethnicity, gender, age, etc and then inserted it into another database using advanced software so as to break it down.

Moreover, what we found was that our internal polling numbers for the riding (obtained by deamon dialer and callers vs. past trends) increased and dropped simultaneously with both the national numbers as well as with the regional numbers (Eastern Ontario).

So there is no question that the national campaign, or better yet, poor leadership at the national level can have a disastrous impact on the local candidate. From the trends found in our polling data, I think it's safe to say we would have won in 2000 had it not been for the poorly run campaign at the national level. Not to mention, the vote split on the right.

However, the fact that we obtained the most votes in the Ottawa region for any Alliance candidate, 2nd overall in Ontario as well as the highest voter turnout in Canada says a lot about the local campaign we ran, not to mention, the effort from Mike. However, as the numbers showed, you are definitely at the mercy of gaffes and missteps made by the nationally campaign.

Two factors (vote split and a poor leader) which are going against your friend this time around and something she'll have to deal with if she goes through as the candidate in that riding as I said before. You can take my advice or leave it, but if she goes into this thing with her eyes wide open she may have a shot. Ignore the trends at your own peril.

And speaking of the Canadian Alliance, tell your boy Holland to stay out of my personal files.

nbpolitico said...

Scott - I've asked not to get into this debate here, that is not what this blog is for or what this post is for. If you'd like to have this debate, maybe you should open comments back up on your blog and we can have it there.

Obviously national trends have effects on local ridings. Anyone knows that, that wasn't my point. My point was that a national or provincial poll cannot necessarily be overlayed on every individual riding.

This post is not about the Liberal fortunes in Ottawa-Orleans. It is about one candidate I know there who is running for the Liberal nomination.

If you don't think she or any other candidate has a chance, as a Liberal, in the next election, I disagree with you. However, this is not what this discussion is about.

Spinks said...

My two cents for what it's worth NBPolitico. Frankly I found it odd and dishonest, thus the reason I asked her about it. Maybe she's changed her tune but it's a red flag in my book. It was regarding Harper's opposition to SSM. I understand people's passion but comparing that to a movement that slaughtered and tortured millions of people is intellectually dishonest. Like I said she removed it from her blog so maybe she had a change of heart but her e-mail to me at the time didn't seem to concur with that thought. Worth asking in my book but support who you wish.

scott said...

Your arguement is obviously partisan and incorrect. In my case, I gave an example of where my own party suffered from poor leadership at the national level wherein it affected the local riding's campaign. You just keep capitulating to globally based points.

However, your debating approach doesn't surprise me as the inablity of any Liberal to admit an error or wrongdoing has left you and your party where they are today. In the basement.

However, whether you like to admit it or not, the rest of the country sees through all this and will not just move on and forget about the past until your party admits to its own scandals and mistreatment of taxpayers money. Which you haven't. Happy infighting!

nbpolitico said...

Scott, anyone who knows me knows I am not a blind partisan and knows I have not been too pleased with the "success" of my party in recent years, nor have I been impressed with the infighting that has gone on now for more than a decade.

Mistakes were made and a price was paid electorally and I do believe the party has gone a long way to clean itself up.

You can say what you wish about Stephane Dion, however no one would accuse him of being a crook and he was certainly not a part of anything that went on in recent years which was unethical or illegal.

If the Liberals win less than 60 seats in the next election, then they probably won't win Ottawa-Orleans. If they win more than 80 they probably will. In between it is hard to say.

I do not think the Liberals will win less than 60 seats, thus I think they have a shot in Orleans.

Anonymous said...

Comparing Harper to a Nazi is no worse than Harper saying Liberals would rather suppot the Taliban than their own troops. Both over the top stupid comments but not enough (stand up Elsie Wayne) to sink a good candidate. In terms of Neo-Con Scott, today' CP/Decima Research survey (April 25/07) show the Tories have dropped to 30 per cent support and are in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals! (if you trust polls!)

scott said...

Polls are usually all over the map, but a first impression last forever. Unfortunately for Dion, this poor image of him will probably stick.

Anon: do not mix Libertarianism with conservatism, they are two separate approaches.

Though I support Harper, I'm pretty open when it comes to both social and economic policy - that is why I am an advocate of freedom of expression, a free market ecomomy, personal freedom through property rights and less government interference. In other words, I'm more of a big C Consequentialist and a small c conservative.

scott said...

Btw anon, thx for bringing up the Decima poll.

I just listened to Charles Adler interview Decima president Bruce Anderson this afternoon and things aren't looking pretty for the Liberals. Supposedly moderate [centrist] votes are going from Conservatives to the NDP instead of going to the Liberals.

In other words, their is a shift in the centre, or political realignment, which favours the NDP at the moment. Not good news for Dion or anybody running in ridings where the NDP vote is a factor.

Anderson also mentioned that Liberal support in Toronto, Vancouver and in parts of Ottawa is going down and shifting to the NDP.

Wow, that even worse news for Liberals who felt a bit of heat from their NDP opponent the last time around. Even with the gap closing, the trends still indicate what I reinterated above - that the Liberal party is still a damaged brand to undecided moderates who are looking for a political home. That, and the fact that Dion has not done himself any favours by not being able to clearly define what he stands for at the national level. Those to factors alone could result in a few Liberal casualties come next election. Maybe even Ottawa-Orleans? ;-)

Anonymous said...

In regards to to Taliban comment the PM is right, the grits and NDPers like to talk about the nicites of soldiering but the fact of the matter is these guys are doing a great job past and present. As for an arm chair bleeding heart liberal to decide when we should pull out of Afganistan is WRONG! the media portrays all the negitive things and none of the social progress of the mission, so yes the PM is correct to all of the Liberals out there put on a uniform and serve then you might have a comment let our Forces do there job.