Monday, October 02, 2006

Delegates in NB

The last of the ridings & clubs here in NB are reported in and here are the results:

1. Ignatieff (54)
2. Rae (23)
2. Dion (23)
4. Kennedy (15)
4. Brison (15)
4. Dryden (15)
7. Undecided (12)
8. Hall Findlay (1)
9. Volpe (0)

I am disappointed to see Kennedy bunched up with the "lower tier" but honourable contenders Dryden and Brison.

This is particularly disappointing if you look at democraticSPACE's projection for NB which had Kennedy with a commanding projected lead of 64 delegates to Ignatieff's 24.

More to come on "super weekend" when the final results come in. Ignatieff has first locked up and barring a disaster in the few results left coming in Rae is locked into second (doing much better than I had imagined). Dion and Kennedy keep displacing each other for third. With Kennedy-rich ridings left in BC, Alberta and Ontario just slightly outnumbering ridings in Quebec which are by and far advantageous to Dion, I would say it will remain very close for third place.

It appears all other than the "big four" will be in at less than 5%. I wouldn't be surprised if these disappointing results see Brison and Dryden drop in the coming weeks.


Anonymous said...

Since Iggy is not going to win at first ballot. Second ballot will tell the real story.

nuna d. above said...

The people who said Kennedy's French wasn't good enough have been vindicated by the results in Quebec and New Brunswick. The question now is whether Liberals decide French language skills are no longer as important as they used to be.

Gregory D. Morrow said...

Just to be clear -- the democraticSPACE numbers to which you link are just the contribution and memberships portions of the projection -- we also factored in Form 6s and polling data -- this significantly lowered Kennedy's NB projection. We summarized our projections for Atlantic Canada, not the individual provinces since the margin of errors in the small provinces is high. So, when everything was factored in -- as you can see HERE, gives Kennedy 17% of Atlantic Canada.

You can compare this to the actual Atlantic Canada results HERE.

Ignatieff and Dion's strong showing in NB really bumped him up and Kennedy and Dryden down.

nbpolitico said...

gregory - my apologies for missing something there, in any event the moral was I was disappointed that Kennedy did not do as well in NB as I hoped/expected.