Final 2020 NB election thoughts and predictions

I've written two previous posts on this election and the below may be an easier read if you've read them.

I often like to take a look at the upside potential for the parties, so I will begin there.

What is the Tory path to victory?

The Tories start the election with 20 seats, having won 22 in the last election.  A majority path should begin by reclaiming St. Croix; it seems very unlikely that they would regain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou.  So their base is 21.  

For a majority, they require four other seats and they have a few options.  The Liberal seats of Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour, Moncton South and Moncton East would all appear to be prime pick up opportunities, as would the Alliance seat of Fredericton-York.

For additional cushion, the PCs could conceivably also take the Liberal seats of Carleton-Victoria and Miramichi Bay-Neguac and the Alliance seat of Fredericton-Grand Lake, though these seem unlikely.

That gives them an upward universe of 29, and they need only win 4 of 5 truly competitive seats or 4 of 8 of the above to win a majority.

I do not foresee any PC incumbents losing, though Carleton-York, held by a retiring PC incumbent, could be threatened by the PA.

What is the Liberal path to victory?

The Liberals start the election with 20 seats, down from 21 at the last election, but are almost certain to regain Shediac Bay-Dieppe and pick up Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou.  They therefore start with a base of 22 seats.

Their pickup opportunities begin with the Alliance seat of Miramichi being contested by their leader.  Liberals would also heavily target the Green seats of Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North.  If they were to win all of these, that would give them 25 seats and a majority government.

However, they are playing defence in at least 3 seats that they are unlikely to win: Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour and Moncton South.  And also are at risk in Moncton East.

The Liberals must run the table with these to win a government of their own.  Conceivably if they failed to win either of the Green seats and one other they would have 25 seats in combination with the Greens, however I find it highly unlikely that the Greens would back a tenuous Liberal government in the current circumstances.

Stretch targets for the Liberals include Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins, where they believe the hospital issue could carry the day for them; Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, where they believe they could win on a vote split; and Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton, where they nearly won last time, have a strong candidate and have invested heavy resources.  I do not think any of these are likely unless there is a major polling error.

What is the best case scenario for the Greens?

The Greens are favoured to hold all 3 of their current seats in my view.  Their first tier of expansion targets are Fredericton North and Restigouche West.  They could also conceivably win in Fredericton-York on a vote split on the right between the PCs and the PA.  That puts them on six seats; others have pondered potential other Green gains but I do not see them.

What is the best case scenario for the Alliance?

At least two and perhaps all three of the PA seats are at risk.  Holding them would be considered a good night.  I believe they have a very strong shot in Carleton-York and in fact may have a better shot here than in their current seats of Fredericton-York and Miramichi.  They came within 34 votes of winning Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin last time so that has to be on their radar.  I have written before about their potential opportunity in St. Croix.  That puts them on 6 seats as well for a high water mark.

Polling

Polling has been all over the map.  Not just at the top line but in the cross-tabs.  Two things that have stood out to me fairly consistently: significant PC gains in Moncton and a high rate of undecideds.

If the PCs are picking up one or two seats in Moncton, this almost certainly eliminates any path to a majority for the Liberals.

If undecideds are still high on election eve, that invites a question about the mood of the remaining electorate.  A record number of voters voted in advance.  There are plenty of compelling reasons to vote for the government due to both their perceived success in managing the pandemic, and the risk and uncertainty of changing a government in a pandemic.  So what are the undecideds thinking?  I think that they are predisposed to break against the government and that could result in a "surprise" result.

In 2018, I believe undecideds broke for the Greens and PA because they just couldn't get behind the main parties and I think that that is going to happen again this year.

Final Prediction

PCs hold 19 of their current 20 seats and gain Moncton East (Lib), Moncton South (Lib) and Saint John Harbour (Lib) for a total of 22.

Liberals hold 16 of their current 20 seats and gain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (Ind former PC) and Shediac Bay-Dieppe (vacant former Lib) for a total of 18.

Greens hold their 3 current seats and gain Fredericton North (Lib) and Fredericton-York (PA) for a total of 5.

The People's Alliance holds 2 of their current three seats and gains St. Croix (vacant former PC) and Carleton-York (PC) for a total of 4.