Brief look at the ridings, part deux

Last week, I took a look at the ridings and found 19 to be competitive. I now see 6 of those 19 still in play, with one additional one moving into play due to a change of circumstances.

Safe PC Seats (13)

• Riverview
• Albert
• Gagetown-Petitcodiac
• Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
• Hampton
• Quispamsis
• Rothesay
• Portland-Simonds
• Kings Centre
• Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
• St. Croix (moved to competitive)
  
• New Maryland-Sunbury
• Fredericton West-Hanwell
• Carleton

Safe Liberal Seats (14)

• Campbellton-Dalhousie
• Restigouche-Chaleur
• Bathurst West-Beresford
• Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore
• Caraquet
• Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)
• Tracadie-Sheila
• Kent South
• Shediac Bay-Dieppe
• Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele
• Dieppe
• Moncton Centre
• Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
• Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston

Safe PA Seats (1)

• Fredericton-Grand Lake

Safe Green Seats (1)

• Fredericton South

Likely PC Seats (8) - moved from competitive

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - With polls consistently showing PCs slightly or significantly above their 2018 result and Stewart's increased profile from having been in cabinet he is likely to be re-elected.

Moncton South (Lib vs PC) - Greg Turner is well known and an effective campaigner.  With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, he is likely to win.

Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, it is unlikely they would lose this seat.

Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.

Saint John East (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a pick up opportunity for the Liberals.

Saint John Harbour (Lib vs PC) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; it seems unlikely the Liberals will be able to hold this seat which they won by only 10 votes last time.

Saint John Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a pick up opportunity for the Liberals.

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton (PC vs Lib) - With Liberal support consistently low in the Fredericton area according to opinion polls, gaining this seat seems unlikely despite a star candidate and significant effort on the ground.

Likely Liberal Seats (3) - moved from competitive

Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - Lisa Harris won 42% of the vote here in 2018 and is likely to receive a similar number this time; it does not seem there will be enough coalescing of PC and PA support for either party to exceed that number.

Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) - The rematch between Andy Harvey and Margaret Johnson is likely to be won again in Harvey's favour.  Voters in the riding's most populist community of Perth-Andover (also the most likely community to be a swing vote) are unlikely to trust a Carleton County Tory with the fate of their hospital after her party nearly closed it six months ago.

Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - The hospital issue already had this riding leaning heavily Liberal; the recent dropping of the PC candidate by his party seals the deal.

Likely Green Seats (2) - moved from competitive

Kent North (Grn vs Lib) - With Greens consistently polling above their 2018 numbers, it is hard to imagine them losing seats.

Memramcook-Tantramar (Grn vs Lib) - Ibid.

Battlegrounds (7)

Restigouche West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an independent in 2014.  This is a realistic pickup opportunities for the Greens.  Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential election night surprise.

Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting race.  Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill Fraser by a massive margin in 2018.  Liberals I talk to are very confident that they will pick this seat up.

Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and represents municipal voters in another riding.  This is the best pickup opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't hold.  That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.

St. Croix (PC vs PA) - I had originally assigned this seat as safe PC, but Charlotte County sources tell me that the Liberal dropping of their candidate there has given PA candidate Rod Cumberland a boost as those worried about the local hospital shift their support to him.  However, even if true, how many of those voters had already cast ballots before the ejection?  Interesting race to watch.

Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) - Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green.  Speaking of Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the Greens' main target for pick up.  Can they pull it off, or will they split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman win a third term?

Fredericton-York (PA vs PC vs Grn) - PCs very much want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before falling to team purple in 2018.  Sources in the riding tell me that Green candidate Melissa Fraser is also in contention here, has been campaigning hard and if signs count for anything my recent drive through the riding certainly suggests she is in the hunt.  In 2014, the results of this riding were PC35-Lib29-NDP21-Grn7-PA5 while in 2018 they were PA34-PC31-Lib18-Grn15-NDP1.  There are some huge shifts there, so this race could be very unpredictable.

Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - PA lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is reoffering.  In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl Urquhart of the PCs has retired.

Of these 7, I currently would guess PC 4, Lib 2, PA 1.

Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)

Prediction as of September 11: PC 25 (21-26), Lib 19 (17-21), Grn 3 (3-6), PA 2 (1-5).