A brief look at the ridings

By my estimation, about 19 ridings are competitive in this election, with the remaining 30 facing fairly predictable outcomes.  Below, I lay out the state of the race as I see it with commentary on the 19 closer ridings.

Likely PC Seats (14)

• Riverview
• Albert
• Gagetown-Petitcodiac
• Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
• Hampton
• Quispamsis
• Rothesay
• Portland-Simonds
• Kings Centre
• Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
• St. Croix
• New Maryland-Sunbury
• Fredericton West-Hanwell
• Carleton

Likely Liberal Seats (14)

• Campbellton-Dalhousie
• Restigouche-Chaleur
• Bathurst West-Beresford
• Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore
• Caraquet
• Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)
• Tracadie-Sheila
• Kent South
• Shediac Bay-Dieppe
• Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele
• Dieppe
• Moncton Centre
• Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
• Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston

Likely PA Seats (1)

• Fredericton-Grand Lake

Likely Green Seats (1)

• Fredericton South

Battlegrounds (19)

Restigouche West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an independent in 2014.  This is one of two realistic pickup opportunites for the Greens.  Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential election night surprise.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - PA finished second here in 2018.  Edge to the Liberals but if the the right-of-centre vote collases behind one of the PA or PC this could be a real race.  Former PC cabinet minister Robert Trevors is running for the PCs.

Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting race.  Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill Fraser by a massive margin in 2018.  Kevin Vickers needs to win this seat if he has a path to a government.  The result of this riding could be a proxy for whether or not the Liberals win the night.

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - Very close PC/PA race last time with the same candidates again.  Can PA improve on its results and win?  Can Liberals sneak up the middle?  Or will Jake Stewart, the first PC ever re-elected in this riding, win a fourth term?

Kent North (Grn vs Lib) - Bertrand LeBlanc is looking to make a comeback for the Liberals after retiring in 2018 and his successor under the red banner being handily defeated by Kevin Arseneau of the Greens.  Liberals very much want to win this seat back, if Arseneau is re-elected he may well be a fixture of New Brunswick politics for a generation.

Memramcook-Tantramar (Grn vs Lib) - Megan Mitton won by a narrow 11-vote margin.  Former Liberal MLA Bernard LeBlanc's hand-picked successor Maxime Bourgeois wants to win it back.  Will Mitton face the same fate as Bob Hall, or will she be re-elected?  How does the pandemic impact on students at Mt. A. affect her path to victory?

Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and represents municipal voters in another riding.  This is the best pickup opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't hold.  That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.

Moncton South (Lib vs PC) - With Cathy Rogers' retirement and popular deputy mayor Greg Turner running for the Tories, this is possibly the most likely PC pick up in the province.

Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - Liberals came within about 200 votes of winning this seat in both 2014 and 2018, is the third time the charm?

Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.

Saint John East (PC vs Lib) - Liberals won this seat, briefly, in 2014 before losing it in a by-election.  Phil Comeau ran in that election for the NDP and did will and now seeks to win as a Liberal.  Can he knock off PC cabinet minister and lone "francophone" Glen Savoie?

Saint John Harbour (Lib vs PC) - In the aggregate from 2010 through 2018, this is the closest riding in the province having been a nail biter each of those 3 election cycles.  Will it be so again?  

Saint John Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - Minister responsible for nursing homes vs. head of nursing home workers union.  Popcorn please.

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton (PC vs Lib) - One of the closest ridings in 2018, this seat is critical to a Liberal path to government.  If they don't win here, it is not a good night for them.

Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) - Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green.  Speaking of Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the Greens' main target for pick up.  Can they pull it off, or will they split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman win a third term?

Fredericton-York (PA vs PC) - PCs very much want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before falling to team purple in 2018.

Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - If the PA are going to pick up a new seat, this is probably their best shot.  They lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is reoffering.  In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl Urquhart of the PCs has retired.

Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) - This has been one of the closest races in each of the last two elections and is the last remaining Liberal seat that is rural and predominately anglophone.  Can Andy Harvrey win a third term in a rematch against the PC's Margaret Johnson?

Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - This is the PCs best shot at winning a francophone seat and they lost by only 400 votes last time.  The aborted plan to close the local hospital may put it out of reach for them however.

Of these 19, I currently would project 10 PC, 6 Liberal, 2 Green, 1 PA.

Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)