Monday, September 28, 2020

Three health reforms our government should pursue

This is the first in a potential series of opinion columns about public policy issues in New Brunswick.

 

Premier Blaine Higgs has often said that we need to make do with what we have; maximize the benefit of existing assets rather than building something new. This is something with which I generally agree.

It is very much true in our healthcare system, both as it relates to infrastructure, to human resources, and to points of access for specialized care.  

We have regional hospitals that are overtaxed and in need of more space. In Fredericton, the Chalmers Hospital is currently undergoing an expansion at a cost of over $200 million. They were out of room, but was there a way to make do with what we have rather than build new?

We have a beautiful highway infrastructure in our province and thanks to that, the Upper River Valley Hospital is just 50 minutes away from the Chalmers. It is the newest hospital in New Brunswick but an entire wing is empty. Many day surgeries in the Fredericton region are done at the Oromocto hospital 20 minutes away. If a similar arrangement had been made upriver, hundreds of millions of dollars could have been saved.

This kind of thinking can and should be made around the province. We often hear talk that politicians should make the "tough decision" and close rural hospitals. That is not tough; it is easy, at least in terms of creative and strategic thinking. But if you do that, then what happens? How do you deal with already congested regional hospitals that will face more pressure?

The real tough decision is taking the time to figure out how to reallocate services within our existing infrastructure so that we have a mix of optimally used buildings instead of some overcrowded and some underused.

That will mean some services have to leave some regional hospitals, something that is antithetical to the mandarins in the healthcare system and that's the really tough political decision to make. This won't solve all of our health infrastructure needs, but it will solve most of them at a small fraction of the cost of the status quo where we drive more and more into regional centres in the cities.

In addition to moving services from crowded regional hospitals to rural hospitals with excess capacity, we should also be exploring publicly-funded delivery of services in privately-owned infrastructure. There has been a lot of attention paid to public funding for abortions at Clinic 554 and potentially similar clinics. This would make sense not just from an access and safety perspective but also fiscally responsible management of infrastructure. The same applies to many other services, for example blood work. In Ontario, when you need blood work you don't wait for weeks for a letter to come in the mail advising you that weeks still in the future you can go and queue up for an hour to have blood drawn at a busy regional hospital. Instead, you can walk into any private blood clinic at your convenience without an appointment and be in and out in under 10 minutes at no charge to you, public health care pays the clinic the same way they pay your family doctor.

This also speaks to the need for better access to primary care. Wait times for family doctors is the most acute example of this. Closing access points in rural areas makes no sense. We need more access to primary care, not less. How these facilities are used and re-orienting them to be more focused on primary care does make sense but this must be done gradually in a way that allows for community buy-in and for the rest of the system to adjust to the change. When a community is used to using an emergency room for primary care because proper access doesn't exist, you can't simply close the emergency room. This is not just an issue in rural New Brunswick; many Frederictonians use the Oromocto emergency room for primary care, many Saint Johners use St. Joseph’s urgent care centre, and many Monctonians use walk-in clinics.  None of these are proper access points for primary care as there are no patient records, no continuity of care and no follow ups.  However, we must provide proper access to primary care first, then ensure that those using the emergency room or other stop gaps for primary care are being transitioned and being well served, and only then have a conversation about whether or not corresponding services reductions make sense.

More broadly on primary care, the main challenge is human resources. Our system is built on the notion that a family doctor must be the entry point to health care. This is expensive and creates unnecessarily long wait-times. Other provinces have more fully integrated nurse practitioners to their primary care system. There is also a lot of talk about increased roles for other professionals like pharmacists and optometrists. For the price of one family doctor, we could hire four nurse practitioners and make four times the dent in the waitlist. If routine prescriptions are being filled by pharmacists, that frees up countless appointments for doctors and nurses to see patients who need to see them.

Every election, the New Brunswick Medical Society puts out a call for parties to commit to hire more doctors. Doctors are an important part of our health system but they can no longer be the be-all-and-end-all; due to scarcity of doctors as well as their relatively high cost.  To allow a nurse practitioner to take a family practice, or a pharmacist to bill Medicare will cost a little bit more than doing nothing. But it will dramatically improve access, reduce wait times and be far, far less expensive than solving the problem with more doctors.

The above are all meaningful solutions to primary care challenges in our system.  But what about specialists?

The crown jewel of New Brunswick's health care system is the centre of excellence in Saint John called the New Brunswick Heart Centre. All serious cardiac cases are sent there and that builds the scale to attract world-class surgeons, afford world-class technology, and ensure those surgeons remain world-class by working at a volume to maintain and grow their skills.

We need to do this with more specialized medical services. This invites risk as it requires telling some specialists they may have to move from their current hospital to another that will host the centre of excellence in their practice. Some argue doctors may leave the province rather than move a 100 kilometers within the province. That is a risk and pains must be taken to mitigate that risk. But the alternative is a more expensive system that requires more infrastructure and delivers inferior results. Imagine a province that has an oncology centre as world-class as the heart centre.  The choice should be obvious.

Taken together, a more rational use of our health infrastructure, a more inclusive and expansive use of existing health care professionals, and building and leveraging scale in specialized care could transform our healthcare system. It would lower wait times, lower capital costs and increase quality of care. It will be hard and involve knocking down silos and fiefdoms but this is the kind of health reform our province needs.

Monday, September 14, 2020

Final 2020 NB election thoughts and predictions

I've written two previous posts on this election and the below may be an easier read if you've read them.

I often like to take a look at the upside potential for the parties, so I will begin there.

What is the Tory path to victory?

The Tories start the election with 20 seats, having won 22 in the last election.  A majority path should begin by reclaiming St. Croix; it seems very unlikely that they would regain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou.  So their base is 21.  

For a majority, they require four other seats and they have a few options.  The Liberal seats of Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour, Moncton South and Moncton East would all appear to be prime pick up opportunities, as would the Alliance seat of Fredericton-York.

For additional cushion, the PCs could conceivably also take the Liberal seats of Carleton-Victoria and Miramichi Bay-Neguac and the Alliance seat of Fredericton-Grand Lake, though these seem unlikely.

That gives them an upward universe of 29, and they need only win 4 of 5 truly competitive seats or 4 of 8 of the above to win a majority.

I do not foresee any PC incumbents losing, though Carleton-York, held by a retiring PC incumbent, could be threatened by the PA.

What is the Liberal path to victory?

The Liberals start the election with 20 seats, down from 21 at the last election, but are almost certain to regain Shediac Bay-Dieppe and pick up Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou.  They therefore start with a base of 22 seats.

Their pickup opportunities begin with the Alliance seat of Miramichi being contested by their leader.  Liberals would also heavily target the Green seats of Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North.  If they were to win all of these, that would give them 25 seats and a majority government.

However, they are playing defence in at least 3 seats that they are unlikely to win: Fredericton North, Saint John Harbour and Moncton South.  And also are at risk in Moncton East.

The Liberals must run the table with these to win a government of their own.  Conceivably if they failed to win either of the Green seats and one other they would have 25 seats in combination with the Greens, however I find it highly unlikely that the Greens would back a tenuous Liberal government in the current circumstances.

Stretch targets for the Liberals include Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins, where they believe the hospital issue could carry the day for them; Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, where they believe they could win on a vote split; and Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton, where they nearly won last time, have a strong candidate and have invested heavy resources.  I do not think any of these are likely unless there is a major polling error.

What is the best case scenario for the Greens?

The Greens are favoured to hold all 3 of their current seats in my view.  Their first tier of expansion targets are Fredericton North and Restigouche West.  They could also conceivably win in Fredericton-York on a vote split on the right between the PCs and the PA.  That puts them on six seats; others have pondered potential other Green gains but I do not see them.

What is the best case scenario for the Alliance?

At least two and perhaps all three of the PA seats are at risk.  Holding them would be considered a good night.  I believe they have a very strong shot in Carleton-York and in fact may have a better shot here than in their current seats of Fredericton-York and Miramichi.  They came within 34 votes of winning Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin last time so that has to be on their radar.  I have written before about their potential opportunity in St. Croix.  That puts them on 6 seats as well for a high water mark.

Polling

Polling has been all over the map.  Not just at the top line but in the cross-tabs.  Two things that have stood out to me fairly consistently: significant PC gains in Moncton and a high rate of undecideds.

If the PCs are picking up one or two seats in Moncton, this almost certainly eliminates any path to a majority for the Liberals.

If undecideds are still high on election eve, that invites a question about the mood of the remaining electorate.  A record number of voters voted in advance.  There are plenty of compelling reasons to vote for the government due to both their perceived success in managing the pandemic, and the risk and uncertainty of changing a government in a pandemic.  So what are the undecideds thinking?  I think that they are predisposed to break against the government and that could result in a "surprise" result.

In 2018, I believe undecideds broke for the Greens and PA because they just couldn't get behind the main parties and I think that that is going to happen again this year.

Final Prediction

PCs hold 19 of their current 20 seats and gain Moncton East (Lib), Moncton South (Lib) and Saint John Harbour (Lib) for a total of 22.

Liberals hold 16 of their current 20 seats and gain Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (Ind former PC) and Shediac Bay-Dieppe (vacant former Lib) for a total of 18.

Greens hold their 3 current seats and gain Fredericton North (Lib) and Fredericton-York (PA) for a total of 5.

The People's Alliance holds 2 of their current three seats and gains St. Croix (vacant former PC) and Carleton-York (PC) for a total of 4.

Friday, September 11, 2020

Brief look at the ridings, part deux

Last week, I took a look at the ridings and found 19 to be competitive. I now see 6 of those 19 still in play, with one additional one moving into play due to a change of circumstances.

Safe PC Seats (13)
  • Riverview
  • Albert
  • Gagetown-Petitcodiac
  • Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
  • Hampton
  • Quispamsis
  • Rothesay
  • Portland-Simonds
  • Kings Centre
  • Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
  • St. Croix (moved to competitive)
  • New Maryland-Sunbury
  • Fredericton West-Hanwell
  • Carleton

Safe Liberal Seats (14)

  • Campbellton-Dalhousie
  • Restigouche-Chaleur
  • Bathurst West-Beresford
  • Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore
  • Caraquet
  • Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)
  • Tracadie-Sheila
  • Kent South
  • Shediac Bay-Dieppe
  • Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele
  • Dieppe
  • Moncton Centre
  • Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
  • Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston

Safe PA Seats (1)

  • Fredericton-Grand Lake

Safe Green Seats (1)

  • Fredericton South

Likely PC Seats (8) - moved from competitive

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - With polls consistently showing PCs slightly or significantly above their 2018 result and Stewart's increased profile from having been in cabinet he is likely to be re-elected.

Moncton South (Lib vs PC) - Greg Turner is well known and an effective campaigner.  With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, he is likely to win.

Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - With a significant increase in PC support in the Moncton area according to polls, it is unlikely they would lose this seat.

Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.

Saint John East (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a pick up opportunity for the Liberals.

Saint John Harbour (Lib vs PC) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; it seems unlikely the Liberals will be able to hold this seat which they won by only 10 votes last time.

Saint John Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - PC support is at or above 2018 levels in Saint John according to opinion polling while Liberal support is down; this is not the recipe for a pick up opportunity for the Liberals.

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton (PC vs Lib) - With Liberal support consistently low in the Fredericton area according to opinion polls, gaining this seat seems unlikely despite a star candidate and significant effort on the ground.

Likely Liberal Seats (3) - moved from competitive

Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - Lisa Harris won 42% of the vote here in 2018 and is likely to receive a similar number this time; it does not seem there will be enough coalescing of PC and PA support for either party to exceed that number.

Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) - The rematch between Andy Harvey and Margaret Johnson is likely to be won again in Harvey's favour.  Voters in the riding's most populist community of Perth-Andover (also the most likely community to be a swing vote) are unlikely to trust a Carleton County Tory with the fate of their hospital after her party nearly closed it six months ago.

Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - The hospital issue already had this riding leaning heavily Liberal; the recent dropping of the PC candidate by his party seals the deal.

Likely Green Seats (2) - moved from competitive

Kent North (Grn vs Lib) - With Greens consistently polling above their 2018 numbers, it is hard to imagine them losing seats.

Memramcook-Tantramar (Grn vs Lib) - Ibid.

Battlegrounds (7)

Restigouche West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an independent in 2014.  This is a realistic pickup opportunities for the Greens.  Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential election night surprise.

Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting race.  Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill Fraser by a massive margin in 2018.  Liberals I talk to are very confident that they will pick this seat up.

Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and represents municipal voters in another riding.  This is the best pickup opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't hold.  That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.

St. Croix (PC vs PA) - I had originally assigned this seat as safe PC, but Charlotte County sources tell me that the Liberal dropping of their candidate there has given PA candidate Rod Cumberland a boost as those worried about the local hospital shift their support to him.  However, even if true, how many of those voters had already cast ballots before the ejection?  Interesting race to watch.

Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) - Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green.  Speaking of Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the Greens' main target for pick up.  Can they pull it off, or will they split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman win a third term?

Fredericton-York (PA vs PC vs Grn) - PCs very much want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before falling to team purple in 2018.  Sources in the riding tell me that Green candidate Melissa Fraser is also in contention here, has been campaigning hard and if signs count for anything my recent drive through the riding certainly suggests she is in the hunt.  In 2014, the results of this riding were PC35-Lib29-NDP21-Grn7-PA5 while in 2018 they were PA34-PC31-Lib18-Grn15-NDP1.  There are some huge shifts there, so this race could be very unpredictable.

Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - PA lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is reoffering.  In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl Urquhart of the PCs has retired.

Of these 7, I currently would guess PC 4, Lib 2, PA 1.

Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)

Prediction as of September 11: PC 25 (21-26), Lib 19 (17-21), Grn 3 (3-6), PA 2 (1-5).

Friday, September 04, 2020

A brief look at the ridings

By my estimation, about 19 ridings are competitive in this election, with the remaining 30 facing fairly predictable outcomes.  Below, I lay out the state of the race as I see it with commentary on the 19 closer ridings.

Likely PC Seats (14)

  • Riverview
  • Albert
  • Gagetown-Petitcodiac
  • Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
  • Hampton
  • Quispamsis
  • Rothesay
  • Portland-Simonds
  • Kings Centre
  • Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West
  • St. Croix
  • New Maryland-Sunbury
  • Fredericton West-Hanwell
  • Carleton

Likely Liberal Seats (14)

  • Campbellton-Dalhousie
  • Restigouche-Chaleur
  • Bathurst West-Beresford
  • Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isodore
  • Caraquet
  • Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou (pickup)
  • Tracadie-Sheila
  • Kent South
  • Shediac Bay-Dieppe
  • Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele
  • Dieppe
  • Moncton Centre
  • Edmundston-Madawaska Centre
  • Madawaska-les-Lacs-Edmundston

Likely PA Seats (1)

  • Fredericton-Grand Lake

Likely Green Seats (1)

  • Fredericton South

Battlegrounds (19)

Restigouche West (Lib vs Grn) - Charles Theriault is running again for the Greens after receiving over 30% of the vote in 2018 and nearly 20% as an independent in 2014.  This is one of two realistic pickup opportunites for the Greens.  Edge to the Liberals but this is definitely a potential election night surprise.

Miramichi Bay-Neguac (Lib vs PA vs PC) - PA finished second here in 2018.  Edge to the Liberals but if the the right-of-centre vote collases behind one of the PA or PC this could be a real race.  Former PC cabinet minister Robert Trevors is running for the PCs.

Miramichi (Lib vs PA) - This will be a very interesting race.  Michelle Conroy of the PA knocked off long-time Liberal MLA Bill Fraser by a massive margin in 2018.  Kevin Vickers needs to win this seat if he has a path to a government.  The result of this riding could be a proxy for whether or not the Liberals win the night.

Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin (PC vs PA vs Lib) - Very close PC/PA race last time with the same candidates again.  Can PA improve on its results and win?  Can Liberals sneak up the middle?  Or will Jake Stewart, the first PC ever re-elected in this riding, win a fourth term?

Kent North (Grn vs Lib) - Bertrand LeBlanc is looking to make a comeback for the Liberals after retiring in 2018 and his successor under the red banner being handily defeated by Kevin Arseneau of the Greens.  Liberals very much want to win this seat back, if Arseneau is re-elected he may well be a fixture of New Brunswick politics for a generation.

Memramcook-Tantramar (Grn vs Lib) - Megan Mitton won by a narrow 11-vote margin.  Former Liberal MLA Bernard LeBlanc's hand-picked successor Maxime Bourgeois wants to win it back.  Will Mitton face the same fate as Bob Hall, or will she be re-elected?  How does the pandemic impact on students at Mt. A. affect her path to victory?

Moncton East (Lib vs PC) - PCs have landed a star candidate in Daniel Allain, though he lives and represents municipal voters in another riding.  This is the best pickup opportunity for the PCs on paper of the 3 Moncton seats they don't hold.  That said, PCs thought they were going to win here in 2018 and Monique LeBlanc held it handily for the Liberals.

Moncton South (Lib vs PC) - With Cathy Rogers' retirement and popular deputy mayor Greg Turner running for the Tories, this is possibly the most likely PC pick up in the province.

Moncton Northwest (PC vs Lib) - Liberals came within about 200 votes of winning this seat in both 2014 and 2018, is the third time the charm?

Moncton Southwest (PC vs Lib) - Ibid.

Saint John East (PC vs Lib) - Liberals won this seat, briefly, in 2014 before losing it in a by-election.  Phil Comeau ran in that election for the NDP and did will and now seeks to win as a Liberal.  Can he knock off PC cabinet minister and lone "francophone" Glen Savoie?

Saint John Harbour (Lib vs PC) - In the aggregate from 2010 through 2018, this is the closest riding in the province having been a nail biter each of those 3 election cycles.  Will it be so again?  

Saint John Lancaster (PC vs Lib) - Minister responsible for nursing homes vs. head of nursing home workers union.  Popcorn please.

Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton (PC vs Lib) - One of the closest ridings in 2018, this seat is critical to a Liberal path to government.  If they don't win here, it is not a good night for them.

Fredericton North (Lib vs PC vs Grn) - Rematch between Liberal Stephen Horsman and PC Jill Green.  Speaking of Greens, they seem to be all-in here behind candidate Luke Randall employing a similar strategy to what they did successfully in Memramcook-Tantramar and Kent North in 2018... this is clearly the Greens' main target for pick up.  Can they pull it off, or will they split the vote and help the PCs on a path to a majority, or will Horsman win a third term?

Fredericton-York (PA vs PC) - PCs very much want to take this seat back which they had held since 1999 before falling to team purple in 2018.

Carleton-York (PA vs PC) - If the PA are going to pick up a new seat, this is probably their best shot.  They lost by only 400 votes last time and their candidate of record is reoffering.  In the meantime, locally beloved long-time MLA Carl Urquhart of the PCs has retired.

Carleton-Victoria (Lib vs PC) - This has been one of the closest races in each of the last two elections and is the last remaining Liberal seat that is rural and predominately anglophone.  Can Andy Harvrey win a third term in a rematch against the PC's Margaret Johnson?

Victoria-la-Vallee (Lib vs PC) - This is the PCs best shot at winning a francophone seat and they lost by only 400 votes last time.  The aborted plan to close the local hospital may put it out of reach for them however.

Of these 19, I currently would project 10 PC, 6 Liberal, 2 Green, 1 PA.

Prediction as of September 4: PC 24 (14-29), Lib 20 (14-31), Grn 3 (1-5), PA 2 (1-5)