Just as in Iowa, Nevada has a rule of 15% viability in a particular voting location for a candidate to get any delegates from that location. Polls show all of the non-Sanders candidates near or below 15, meaning they will surely miss viability in some significant number of precincts.
Nevada is clearly a race for second.
Biden has managed to maintain his lead in all post-Iowa/New Hampshire polls of South Carolina, which votes just 7 days after Nevada and just 3 days before Super Tuesday. Can Biden survive another loss and win in South Carolina? And if he does, will it be too little, too late?
Klobuchar seems to have not taken off in Nevada or South Carolina and may place sixth in both states. She will go on to perhaps win her home state of Minnesota on Super Tuesday on a day when Sanders could conceivably sweep the rest; does she stay for that possibility?
If Biden finishes second, after finishing fourth and fifth in previous outings, does that become the story and given him momentum heading into a win in South Carolina and thereafter into Super Tuesday?
If Warren finishes second, is her campaign reborn?
If Buttigieg finishes second, does the narrative get reset back to the possible Bernie-Pete two-way showdown that was being discussed out of Iowa?
If Steyer finishes second, could he parlay that into a win or second in South Carolina and a viable player on Super Tuesday?
Stay tuned!
Friday, February 21, 2020
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
New Hampshire primary
The chaos in Iowa ended up being the story coming out of Iowa, where otherwise there might have been three stories:
- Biden's hard fall
- Buttigieg's come-from-behind victory
- Klobuchar's surge to the second-tier alongside "frontrunners" Warren and Biden
New Hampshire voters who are more tuned in than ordinary voters may have read this in to the equation even though this was not a major focus of media coverage. This, coupled with a strong performance in Friday's debate, seem to be leading to a last minute surge for Klobuchar.
Sanders' support is locked in and loyal. He will perform in or around 30% no matter what happens. The big question for me tonight is: is Klobuchar's surge real and at whose expense does it come from, Buttigieg, Warren or Biden or some combination of two or three of them?
The two polls I am following most closely are the nightly tracking polls by Suffolk and Emerson because the number, which is inevitably old, is less important than the trend line that you can see.
Sanders is flat.
Buttigieg rose and has peaked or is falling.
Warren is flat.
Biden has fallen and bottomed out in the neighbourhood of Warren.
Klobuchar is enjoying a late surge.
This all makes intuitive sense. Everyone has turned their fire on Buttigieg and his support was softest. In the last Emerson poll, they asked people how sure they were of their vote and 85% of Sanders voters, 68% of Warren voters, 66% of Klobuchar voters and 59% of Buttigieg voters were sure.
So what are the possible outcomes and what do they mean?
Sanders
He is almost certain to win, and probably won't get much of a bump for doing so. He seems to have locked in a core of support with little room to grow or shrink. However, if he were to lose, this would be a shock and would lead to a series of stories about the establishment striking back against him, etc. Whether or not that would have any impact on his campaign remains to be seen.
Buttigieg
He sort of benefited from beating expectations in Iowa (this was muted by the chaos and delays). Now he may suffer from expectations; he is now expected to finish second with Sanders clearly in first and the others battling for third. If he slips into third, the story may be that he was a flash in the plan that may not be able to stand close scrutiny of his record or lack thereof. If he finishes second, it is steady as she goes. If he were to some how pull of another upset, this would make him the clear frontrunner for the nomination.
Klobuchar
As I wrote in my Iowa post, her better-than-expected finish in Iowa is helpful to her, but she still lacks the money and organization to fully capitalize on it. If she comes third in New Hampshire, she is the story and if she comes second she is a huge story. Nevada is next and is a caucus state which means the ground game really matters; can she build on momentum to win a low turnout, time-intense caucus process or does she move on to South Carolina where Biden once dominated but is likely slipping leaving votes on the table? She probably needs a win or at least two second places to get the cash to mount an air war on Super Tuesday.
Biden
Does he finish fourth or fifth? Both are a disaster, though now what is expected. He probably limps on to South Carolina, perhaps skipping Nevada. If he finishes third, which would have been considered fatal weeks ago, he may be on the road to recovery. Seems highly unlikely he finishes second unless there is a four-way muddled-up-tie in the low teens and he gets lucky by a fraction of a percentage point.
Warren
In my view, there is no room for both Warren and Sanders in the race. I had expected her to seize the left, but instead she has run as a quasi-moderate which doesn't seem to have helped her in the centre but has made it even more difficult for her to compete for the Bernie true believers. The outcome possibilities for Warren are similar to Biden, but unlike Biden, she doesn't have a beach head coming up in South Carolina, so her chances for rebirth are even less likely than Uncle Joe.
Monday, February 03, 2020
Iowa caucus
Tonight marks the beginning of voting in the Democratic nomination process to choose the candidate who will face off against Donald Trump this fall.
This race has been very tightly contested with various candidates leading in the polls over the past year. The excitement and confusion has not yielded in the days leading into the vote.
Ann Selzer, who has run the definitive poll in Iowa for decades, abruptly cancelled the release of her completed poll due to irregularities in data collection. The absence of this gold standard makes predicting the winner of tonight's caucus all the more difficult.
Also, the processes used in the Iowa Democratic caucus are unique, and some new features are being used for the first time ever today. The caucus model, which is used by a minority of states, is comparable to the process used in Canada to select candidates and previously to select leaders. A primary is a state-run process, where civil servants conduct the election in a non-partisan fashion to select party nominees; that is completely foreign to Canada. A caucus is a party-run process, where party members must sign up in advance and attend a physical meeting at a specific time; this may sound familiar to those who have participated in the Canadian political process.
Iowa, however, has unique features. And Iowa Democrats have further unique features of their own, such as the rule of viability.
In each polling precinct, voters must arrive and publicly reveal their candidate of choice by standing among fellow supporters of that candidate. A head count is conducted and any candidate with less than 15% support is considered "not viable" and his or her supporters must distribute among the remaining "viable" candidates and final head count is taken and results announced for that precinct. This process happens more or less simultaneously in about 2,000 locations across Iowa. (New features this year allow some pre-caucus caucuses for those who are unable to attend the actual caucus meetings.)
In an extreme example, a candidate who gets 14% of the vote in every precinct would get 0 delegates because he or she would be non-viable everywhere and would be reported as having gotten 0% of the vote, as pre-viability results are not revealed. Many believe this is what happened in 2008 to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, who had been polling in the mid-high single digits but got near zero on caucus night. In this same scenario, another candidate whose support was concentrated in one region might get a bunch of viable votes and delegates while enjoying less support overall.
The caucus has become a five-way race. In one of the most recent polls, five candidates polled between 19 and 11 per cent. The six polls included in the RealClearPolitics average include three polls in which Sanders is leader, two in which Biden is leading, and one in which Buttigieg is leading. In those six polls, candidate position among each other has been all over the map.
While Klobuchar is consistently fifth, she has strong regional support which should help her with viability and she has been surging of late, hitting double digits in 3 of the last 4 polls.
Sanders can afford to lose and very much benefits from winning.
If Biden loses, he is in trouble and if he places worse than second his campaign may not recover.
Buttigieg led in the polls consistently for about six weeks from mid-November to the end of 2019. For him to place worse than third would probably be a big blow for his campaign. Expectations are probably low and second place finish may give him the "big mo" coming out of Iowa. A win certainly would put him on an upward trajectory.
Warren's campaign has been in free fall and if she were to slip into fifth behind Klobuchar, she might have to drop out. Finishing in third would stabilize her campaign. Finishing first or second would give her the "big mo".
Klobuchar finishing fourth or better would give her the "big mo". However, much like Mike Huckabee in 2008, even a win might not be enough to make her a contender because she lacks the organization and money to compete in the states that follow.
What will be interesting to see is how this all plays out into the following states.
If Biden does poorly, he is likely to repeat that in New Hampshire in eight days. He has been dominating in South Carolina but does that slip away after two loses? If Biden wins, could he bounce to a win in New Hampshire, followed by wins in South Carolina and Nevada? Does that mean the race is over before Super Tuesday? Bottom line: Biden needs to finish in at least second place.
Regardless of the outcome in Iowa, Sanders is favoured in New Hampshire. He has led the last nine polls there and represents a neighbouring state. If Warren, who also represents a neighbouring state and has been running third in New Hampsire, does very badly in Iowa, this really helps Sanders. Bottom line: Sanders has the least to lose tonight and could finish third and still realistically win in New Hampshire.
Buttigieg has money and organization. He has led some polls in New Hampshire but has slipped into fourth place in the polling average of late. A win or second place in Iowa could lead to a win or second place in New Hampshire. Otherwise, he is likely to lag in New Hampshire and South Carolina which may eventually prove to be insurmountably bad for his campaign. Bottom line: Buttigieg needs to finish at least third and probably second to have a viable shot at the nomination.
Warren continues to poll okay in New Hampshire, where she is a de facto favourite daughter as she represents Massachusetts in the Senate and most New Hampshirites consume their news from the Boston media market. She also polls robustly in South Carolina. However, she has been moving in the wrong direction and is viewed as having negative momentum. Bottom line: Warren's campaign is on life support and a third place finish could allow that to continue, but she needs to finish first or second to spring back to life.
Others: Klobuchar may live to fight a few more days with a fourth or better finish, but short of a shock win, it is hard to see her even having an unlikely path to the nomination. Billionaires Bloomberg and Steyer will not place better than fifth and probably not better than seventh tonight, however they have a lot to gain out of tonight's results. If Biden does poorly, Steyer has been in second and third place in South Carolina polls and could benefit most. Bloomberg is playing for Super Tuesday and if Sanders is standing alone, Bloomberg might be able to defeat him in the big states. If two or three candidates are still viable heading into Super Tuesday, that's bad news for the billionaires.
This race has been very tightly contested with various candidates leading in the polls over the past year. The excitement and confusion has not yielded in the days leading into the vote.
Ann Selzer, who has run the definitive poll in Iowa for decades, abruptly cancelled the release of her completed poll due to irregularities in data collection. The absence of this gold standard makes predicting the winner of tonight's caucus all the more difficult.
Also, the processes used in the Iowa Democratic caucus are unique, and some new features are being used for the first time ever today. The caucus model, which is used by a minority of states, is comparable to the process used in Canada to select candidates and previously to select leaders. A primary is a state-run process, where civil servants conduct the election in a non-partisan fashion to select party nominees; that is completely foreign to Canada. A caucus is a party-run process, where party members must sign up in advance and attend a physical meeting at a specific time; this may sound familiar to those who have participated in the Canadian political process.
Iowa, however, has unique features. And Iowa Democrats have further unique features of their own, such as the rule of viability.
In each polling precinct, voters must arrive and publicly reveal their candidate of choice by standing among fellow supporters of that candidate. A head count is conducted and any candidate with less than 15% support is considered "not viable" and his or her supporters must distribute among the remaining "viable" candidates and final head count is taken and results announced for that precinct. This process happens more or less simultaneously in about 2,000 locations across Iowa. (New features this year allow some pre-caucus caucuses for those who are unable to attend the actual caucus meetings.)
In an extreme example, a candidate who gets 14% of the vote in every precinct would get 0 delegates because he or she would be non-viable everywhere and would be reported as having gotten 0% of the vote, as pre-viability results are not revealed. Many believe this is what happened in 2008 to Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, who had been polling in the mid-high single digits but got near zero on caucus night. In this same scenario, another candidate whose support was concentrated in one region might get a bunch of viable votes and delegates while enjoying less support overall.
The caucus has become a five-way race. In one of the most recent polls, five candidates polled between 19 and 11 per cent. The six polls included in the RealClearPolitics average include three polls in which Sanders is leader, two in which Biden is leading, and one in which Buttigieg is leading. In those six polls, candidate position among each other has been all over the map.
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | |
| Sanders | 3 | 3 | |||
| Biden | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Buttigieg | 1 | 1 | 4 | ||
| Warren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Klobuchar | 6 |
While Klobuchar is consistently fifth, she has strong regional support which should help her with viability and she has been surging of late, hitting double digits in 3 of the last 4 polls.
Sanders can afford to lose and very much benefits from winning.
If Biden loses, he is in trouble and if he places worse than second his campaign may not recover.
Buttigieg led in the polls consistently for about six weeks from mid-November to the end of 2019. For him to place worse than third would probably be a big blow for his campaign. Expectations are probably low and second place finish may give him the "big mo" coming out of Iowa. A win certainly would put him on an upward trajectory.
Warren's campaign has been in free fall and if she were to slip into fifth behind Klobuchar, she might have to drop out. Finishing in third would stabilize her campaign. Finishing first or second would give her the "big mo".
Klobuchar finishing fourth or better would give her the "big mo". However, much like Mike Huckabee in 2008, even a win might not be enough to make her a contender because she lacks the organization and money to compete in the states that follow.
What will be interesting to see is how this all plays out into the following states.
If Biden does poorly, he is likely to repeat that in New Hampshire in eight days. He has been dominating in South Carolina but does that slip away after two loses? If Biden wins, could he bounce to a win in New Hampshire, followed by wins in South Carolina and Nevada? Does that mean the race is over before Super Tuesday? Bottom line: Biden needs to finish in at least second place.
Regardless of the outcome in Iowa, Sanders is favoured in New Hampshire. He has led the last nine polls there and represents a neighbouring state. If Warren, who also represents a neighbouring state and has been running third in New Hampsire, does very badly in Iowa, this really helps Sanders. Bottom line: Sanders has the least to lose tonight and could finish third and still realistically win in New Hampshire.
Buttigieg has money and organization. He has led some polls in New Hampshire but has slipped into fourth place in the polling average of late. A win or second place in Iowa could lead to a win or second place in New Hampshire. Otherwise, he is likely to lag in New Hampshire and South Carolina which may eventually prove to be insurmountably bad for his campaign. Bottom line: Buttigieg needs to finish at least third and probably second to have a viable shot at the nomination.
Warren continues to poll okay in New Hampshire, where she is a de facto favourite daughter as she represents Massachusetts in the Senate and most New Hampshirites consume their news from the Boston media market. She also polls robustly in South Carolina. However, she has been moving in the wrong direction and is viewed as having negative momentum. Bottom line: Warren's campaign is on life support and a third place finish could allow that to continue, but she needs to finish first or second to spring back to life.
Others: Klobuchar may live to fight a few more days with a fourth or better finish, but short of a shock win, it is hard to see her even having an unlikely path to the nomination. Billionaires Bloomberg and Steyer will not place better than fifth and probably not better than seventh tonight, however they have a lot to gain out of tonight's results. If Biden does poorly, Steyer has been in second and third place in South Carolina polls and could benefit most. Bloomberg is playing for Super Tuesday and if Sanders is standing alone, Bloomberg might be able to defeat him in the big states. If two or three candidates are still viable heading into Super Tuesday, that's bad news for the billionaires.
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